Apple remains Buffett’s biggest public stock holding, but his thesis about its moat faces questions
Tim Cook and Warren Buffett
Getty Images (L) | CNBC (R)
Berkshire Hathaway‘s Warren Buffett was still using a flip phone as late as 2020, four years after his investment behemoth started amassing a huge stake in the company that makes iPhones.
“I don’t understand the phone at all, but I do understand consumer behavior,” Buffett said last year at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.
He’s emerged in recent years as one of Apple’s top evangelists.
At the end of 2023, Berkshire owned about 6% of Apple, a stake worth $174 billion at the time, or about 40% of Berkshire’s total value. That’s about four times bigger than Berkshire’s second-biggest public stock holding, Bank of America, and makes Berkshire the No. 2 Apple shareholder, behind only Vanguard.
As Berkshire investors and fanboys of the 93-year-old Buffett flood Omaha this weekend for the 2024 annual meeting, Apple is likely to be a hot topic of discussion. The tech giant on Thursday reported a 10% year-over-year decline in iPhone sales, leading to a 4% drop in total revenue. But the stock had its best day since late 2022 on Friday due largely to a $110 billion stock buyback plan and increased margins that result from a growing services business.
The bet on Apple and CEO Tim Cook, has paid off handsomely for Buffett, who said in 2022 that the cost of Berkshire’s Apple stake was only $31 billion. His firm is up almost 620% on its investment since the start of 2016.
Despite being a self-described luddite, Buffett has long had a coherent non-techie thesis for loving Apple. He’s seen how devoted Apple users are to their devices, and has viewed the iPhone as an extraordinary product that could keep its customers spending inside the Apple ecosystem. He calls it a moat, one of his favorite words for describing his preferred businesses.
“Apple has a position with consumers that they’re paying $1,500 or whatever it may be for a phone, and these same people pay $35,000 for a second car,” Buffett said at last year’s meeting. “And if they had to give up their second car or give up their iPhone, they’d give up their second car!”
Data is in his favor. According to a study from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Apple has 94% customer loyalty, meaning that nine out of 10 current U.S. iPhone owners choose another iPhone when buying a new device.
Buffett has also hailed Apple’s ability to return billions of dollars to shareholders annually through share buybacks and dividends, a capital allocation strategy for which Buffett may have himself to thank. When asked in a 2016 interview with The Washington Post who he turns to for advice at pivotal moments, Cook offered up a story about his relationship with Buffett.
“When I was going through [the question of] what should we do on returning cash to shareholders, I thought who could really give us great advice here? Who wouldn’t have a bias?” Cook said. “So I called up Warren Buffett. I thought he’s the natural person.”
Apple has shown its appreciation for the Oracle of Omaha in other ways.
In 2019, the company published an original iPhone game called “Warren Buffett’s Paper Wizard” in which a paperboy bikes from Omaha to Apple’s hometown of Cupertino, California.
But with Apple’s business having declined in size in five of the past six quarters and with the company expecting just low-single digit growth in the current quarter, Buffett may face questions this weekend about whether he still sees the same power in the moat, particularly with regulatory pressures building around tech’s megacap companies.
Buffett trimmed his stake in Apple late year, though only by about 1%. Even after Friday’s rally, the stock is down 3.8% in 2024, while the S&P 500 is up 7.5%.
‘Very, very, very locked in’
Berkshire’s initial foray into Apple in 2016 was not Buffett’s idea. Rather, the investment was led by Ted Weschler, one of Buffett’s top deputies, and was seen as a passing of the torch to the next generation of Berskhire investment mangers.
But the following year, Berkshire started purchasing even more Apple, and Buffett began talking it up. He said he liked the stock and the company’s “sticky” product, although he didn’t use it.
In 2018, he said Apple users are “very, very, very locked in, at least psychologically and mentally” to the product and the ecosystem.
“Apple has an extraordinary consumer franchise,” he said.
At last year’s annual meeting, when asked how Berkshire can defend having Apple make up so much of its public portfolio, Buffett said, “It just happens to be a better business than any we own.” He also hailed Cook, calling him one of the “best managers in the world.”
A number Apple likes to use to tout the health of its business, despite the declining revenue, is 2.2 billion. That’s how many devices the company says are currently in use and points to the massive customer base available as Apple rolls out new subscription services.
“Once customers get into the ecosystem, they don’t leave. So it’s not a a speculative tech play,” said Dan Eye, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group, which owns Apple shares. “It’s kind of more like an annuity and I think that’s what Warren Buffett really sees as well.”
In addition to the drop in revenue, Apple faces new challenges from regulations and weak overseas markets, as well as from Microsoft and Google’s advancements in artificial intelligence. For regulators, the concern surrounds the very moat that Buffett finds so attractive, and whether its give the company monopolistic control in the smartphone market.
The U.S. government in March alleged that Apple designs its business to keep customers locked in. The Justice Department’s lawsuit claimed that products like Apple Card, the Apple Arcade game subscription, iMessage, and Apple Watch work best or only with an iPhone, creating illegal barriers to competition and making it harder for consumers to switch when it’s time for an upgrade.
However, the litigation is expected to take years, pushing any potential penalties to Apple and its products well into the future. In the meantime, there’s no sign that the iPhone is becoming less important as new devices like virtual reality goggles have found only niche audiences, while consumer AI products have failed to take off.
Buffett hasn’t voiced his view publicly on Apple’s regulatory hurdles, and this will be the first opportunity for investors to ask him about the issue since the DOJ’s lawsuit. But Buffett knows a little something about regulation — two markets where he’s most active are railroads and insurance.
In a note to clients earlier this month, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi didn’t go deep on regulatory concerns, but mentioned that he doesn’t believe the DOJ suit will “seriously threaten” the strength of Apple’s ecosystem. He also said that following Buffett’s lead on getting in and out of Apple is a solid strategy for making money.
“Despite his reputation as a long term buy and hold investor, Warren Buffett has been remarkably disciplined at adding to his Apple position when it is relatively cheap and trimming when it is relatively expensive,” Sacconaghi wrote. He encouraged investors to “be like Buffett.”
More money back
Odds are that Buffett was thrilled with Apple’s announcement this week regarding its expanded repurchase program. It’s a practice he’s long adored.
“When I buy Apple, I know that Apple is going to repurchase a lot of shares,” he said in 2018.
And he likes to note how buybacks result in getting a bigger stake in the company without buying more shares.
“The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time,” Buffett said in 2021.
Apple also increased its dividend by 4%, and signaled that it would continue to lift it annually.
Buffett was effusive about Apple’s capital return strategy at the company’s annual meeting last year, pointing out that it helped Berkshire own a bigger piece of the pie. Unlike insurance company Geico and homebuilder Clayton Homes, which his firm owns in their entirety, Berkshire can continue to increase its stake in Apple, a fact he reminded investors of at the meeting.
“The good thing about Apple is that we can go up,” Buffett said.
WATCH: Warren Buffett’s stake in Japanese trading houses helps them focus on capital efficiency
Technology
Bitcoin jumps to new record above $109,000 as traders cheer Trump inauguration, meme coins
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high overnight after the incoming first couple launched a pair of meme coins and as traders await the inauguration of incoming President Donald Trump.
On Monday the flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by nearly 1% at $106,622.54, according to Coin Metrics. Earlier, it rose as high as $109,350.72, after briefly dipping below the $100,000 mark Sunday.
Bitcoin hits a new record ahead of Trump inauguration
Over the weekend, Trump launched the “Official Trump” meme coin, which has risen to a $10.6 billion market cap and surged more than 659% since Friday night, according to data from CoinGecko and Coinbase. On Monday it was down about 27% from its record price of around $73 a coin, after returning First Lady Melania Trump launched her own “Melania” meme coin Sunday — nearly halving the Trump coin in value at one point.
Melania Meme, which began trading Sunday evening, has hit a $1.3 billion market cap and 14% price increase since its launch. It has attracted $7.3 billion in trading volumes over the last day, compared to the Trump meme’s $31 billion.
Although meme coins are considered the riskiest corner of the already risky cryptocurrency market, the Trumps’ coin launches over the weekend gave traders further conviction that the incoming administration will be positive for the industry.
“The move highlights President Trump’s embrace of crypto and belief that Americans should have the freedom to operate in the emerging asset class,” said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX.
“There is a logic here that would suggest that putting a stamp of approval on what could be perceived as the wildest of crypto assets, meme coins, is the best way to send a message of just how supportive the market should expect the administration to be when it comes to embracing crypto and making America a major player in the space.”
Noelle Acheson, economist and author of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter, echoed that sentiment, calling the meme drops net positive and “a sign he is very much in favor of new ideas [and] new markets.”
Bitcoin started gaining steam last week as speculation started to build that Trump might announce an executive order on crypto early in his new term. Gracy Chen, CEO crypto exchange Bitget, said that optimism is having a greater effect on its price.
“Rumors that cryptocurrency may be declared a national interest by the United States during the inauguration are having a positive effect on the price of bitcoin,” she told CNBC. “I don’t believe the rise in bitcoin’s price is due to the launch of new meme tokens. Rather … without the release of the Trump family tokens, bitcoin’s price would have grown more. Instead, capital shifted to new coins, limiting overall growth.”
The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, fell 1% on Monday and has gained less than 1% since Saturday. The token tied to Solana is down more than 7% on Monday but up 15% since Saturday, benefitting from the Trump meme coin being launched on the popular Ethereum alternative network. Ether has lost 5% since Saturday.
Bitcoin’s new record opens the door to a possible upside extension to $130,000, LMAX’s Kruger added.
Technology
TSMC is confident its CHIPS Act funding will continue under Trump, says CFO Wendell Huang
TSMC Arizona’s first chip fab on November 7, 2024
Katie Tarasov
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has accused Taiwan of “stealing” his country’s chip industry. But Taiwan’s biggest chip company is confident the Trump administration will continue funding its projects in the U.S.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co has been promised $6.6 billion under the Joe Biden administration’s CHIPS and Science ACT to help build three cutting-edge chip fabrication plants in Arizona as part of U.S. efforts to onshore chip manufacturing.
Speaking to CNBC’s Emily Tan in an exclusive interview, TSMC Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said the funding was expected to continue to roll in gradually under Trump as the fabrication plants pass construction and production milestones.
“As a matter of fact, in the fourth quarter, we already received the first batch of government support,” Haung said, revealing the contract chip manufacturer had got $1.5 billion in funds.
Following some production delays, the first fabrication plant in Arizona started producing advanced chips in the fourth quarter of last year, Huang said. He added that the construction of two plants in Arizona was on track, with the second expected to be operational in 2028.
TSMC’s first investment in Arizona was announced in May 2020, with the company’s total investment in the its three projects there eventually standing at over $65 billion.
Much of the investments were committed after the Biden administration signed the bipartisan CHIPS Act in August 2022, committing almost $53 billion to invest in the domestic semiconductor supply chain and counter China.
While the incoming President is also expected to make competition with China and onshoring manufacturing a priority in his second term, there has been debate as to whether Trump and the Republican-led House would re-examine the CHIPS Act.
During his campaign for the White House, Trump publicly criticized the bill and its price tag, arguing instead that tariffs were a more effective strategy to onshore chip manufacturing. The President-elect also accused Taiwan of “stealing” U.S. chip business.
However, industry experts have told CNBC that they expect Trump to leave the policy mostly intact due to its bipartisan support in Washington.
TSMC on Thursday reported record profit for the fourth quarter on strong demand for its AI chips, sending its shares up nearly 4%. Shares closed 1.36% higher on Friday.
In an earnings call following the esults, CEO and Chairman C.C. Wei highlighted TSMC’s “long-standing and good relationship” with the U.S. government and the commitment and support it has received on the federal, state and city levels.
“Let me assure you that we have a very frank and open communication with the current government and with the future one also,” he said in response to an investor question.
On Thursday, Wei also said that the company would not attend Trump’s inauguration as it prefers to keep a low profile.
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