Local elections 2024: Labour pulling off strong wins with ‘truly historic’ shock in Tory stronghold – as results show Brexit shift

Published

7 months ago

May 3, 2024

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Labour has won control of a string of Leave-voting councils as results roll in from the local elections across England and Wales.

The party was also buoyed by victory in the Blackpool South by-election, with a 26.33% swing from the Tories.

Among the key council gains, Labour took Rushmoor in Hampshire, which the Conservatives had run for the last 24 years.

It also seized Redditch in the West Midlands, turning a Conservative majority of five into a Labour majority of 15.

And Labour has retaken Hartlepool Council – the scene of a major by-election loss back in 2021, which led Sir Keir Starmer to consider quitting as leader – and Thurrock in Essex, from no overall control, saying it was “exactly the kind of place we need to be winning to gain a majority in a general election”.

And the party replaced the Tories as the largest party on Peterborough Council which, while remaining under no overall control, saw the Conservatives lose 13 of the 16 seats they were defending.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost control of North East Lincolnshire after Labour won five of the seats up for grabs – with neither party now holding a majority on the council.

All six areas overwhelmingly voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum, with Thurrock supporting it by 72.3%, North East Lincolnshire by 69.9%, Hartlepool by 69.6%, Redditch by 62.3%, Peterborough by 60.9% and Rushmoor by 58.2%.

However, Labour lost control in its traditional heartland of Oldham, which has a large Muslim population, with many blaming the party’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.

And while keeping its grip on Newcastle, it saw a number of seats fall to the Greens.

The Tories also clung on by a single seat in Harlow, a council targeted by Sir Keir on the eve of polling day.

In other important developments:

• Labour held on to Sunderland Council
• It also kept control of South Tyneside and Chorley
• The Tories held on to other councils in Hertfordshire, Hampshire and Essex

More than 2,600 council seats across 107 councils were up for grabs in England, alongside 11 mayoral elections, a parliamentary seat and police and crime commissioners throughout England and Wales – with many of the results still coming in.

But early signs show Labour is winning back seats in areas it lost over the Brexit debate, as well as making gains in traditionally Tory voting councils.

Sky’s election coverage plan – how to follow

Friday: From 10am lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge and chief presenter Mark Austin is joined by political editor Beth Rigby and Sam Coates throughout the day, as well as economics and data editor Ed Conway and Professor Michael Thrasher.

Friday night: From 7pm until 9pm, Sophy Ridge will host a special edition of the Politics Hub, offering a full analysis and breakdown of the local elections.

The weekend: Sophy Ridge will host another special edition of the Politics Hub on Saturday from 7pm until 9pm. And Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips will take a look back over what’s happened from 8.30am until 10am.

How do I watch?: Freeview 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313, YouTube and the Sky News website and app. You can also watch Sky News live here, and on YouTube.

And the Electoral Dysfunction podcast with Beth Rigby, Jess Phillips and Ruth Davidson will go out on Friday, and Politics at Jack and Sam’s will navigate the big question of where the results leave us ahead of a general election on Sunday.

We’ll also have the latest on the politics page of our website.

‘People crying out for change’ – Labour

Tory party chairman Richard Holden told Sky News it had been a “tough night” for the Conservatives, but argued it was coming off a “very high watermark set of elections in 2021” and “typical for a government in midterm”.

But he said: “I do feel sorry for a lot of my Conservative colleagues who have been out campaigning with across the country over the last few weeks and months who haven’t managed to hold their seats.”

However, he argued voters had not suggested they want to see “more change” within the Conservative Party, when pressed over Rishi Sunak’s position as leader and insisted the party “will be ready” whenever the election was called.

Analysis: Not all going Starmer’s way with Reform posing real threat

By Professor Michael Thrasher, Sky News elections analyst

Election results declared overnight have clearly demonstrated that the Conservatives are in serious trouble.

A by-election defeat in Blackpool South at the hands of Labour, the seventh this parliament.

In the local council elections the Conservatives are losing seats in numbers that suggest this could be one of the party’s worst ever performances.

But Conservative council seat losses have not been Labour’s gain with Sir Keir Starmer’s party more or less static in terms of vote share compared with its results from last year’s May elections.

The picture of net seat gains and losses is intriguing.

Labour leads the way but it is having to share the headlines with seat gains made at the Conservatives’ expense by the Liberal Democrats, Greens and a range of local independents.

Close comparisons of change in vote share demonstrated that support for Reform is real and will hurt the Conservatives if played out at the next general election.

Read more from Sky News elections analyst Professor Michael Thrasher here

Labour’s shadow environment secretary Steve Reed told Sky News that while it was “early days”, the results so far were showing positive signs for Labour come the next general election.

“These are not polls,” he said. “These are people getting off their backsides, going out of their homes, into a polling station, putting a cross on a party that they want to govern their local area.

“People are crying out for change. I know that from speaking to people on the doorsteps and tonight, it looks like people around the country are voting for change.”

But while Tory MP James Daly said he “fully accepts” the loss of these councils, he insisted to Sky News his party could “still win in parts of the country where historically Labour have dominated” – including in Teeside, where Conservative Lord Houchen is defending his mayoralty.

Analysis:
Story of the night in charts
Blackpool is a big step to No 10 for Starmer
Tories in real trouble but Reform threat not all good for Labour

Tories better some predictions but Lib Dems ‘buoyed’

The Conservatives bucked predictions in Harlow in Essex where it managed to keep control of the council – although its majority fell from 11 to one, and Labour gained five seats.

The party also held on to Broxbourne Council in Hertfordshire – an authority it has run for its entire 52-year history – and Fareham in Hampshire, though in the latter the Liberal Democrats picked up four seats.

A Lib Dem source said they were “buoyed” by their results overnight, claiming it set them up to take seats off the Tories at the next election.

“This is just a taster of what is to come throughout Friday in the Blue Wall,” they added.

Reform UK is performing well, racking up an average vote share of between 14% and 15%, and pushing the Conservatives into third place in some areas, including Sunderland.

However, it isn’t fielding candidates everywhere – instead targeting Leave seats where its predecessors, the Brexit Party and UKIP, performed well – and has yet to win a seat or council for itself.

Politics

California judge rules DAO members liable under partnership laws

Published

3 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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California judge rules DAO members liable under partnership laws

A16z Crypto’s Miles Jennings posted on X that the ruling is a “huge blow” to decentralized governance.

Politics

Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Published

4 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Thousands of farmers from across the UK are expected to gather outside Downing Street today – in the biggest protest yet against the government’s changes to inheritance tax rules.

The reforms, announced in last month’s budget, will mean farms worth over £1m will be subject to 20% inheritance tax from April 2026.

Farmers say that will lead to land being sold to pay the tax bill, impact food security and the future of British farming.

The Government insists it is “committed” to the farming industry but has had to make “difficult decisions”.

Farmers from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will arrive in London to hear speeches from agricultural leaders.

Sky News understands TV presenter and farm owner Jeremy Clarkson, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will also address crowds.

Protestors will then march around Parliament Square.

‘It’s really worrying’

“It’s unfortunate, as Labour had originally said they would support farmers,” said fourth-generation farmer Will Weaver, who is attending today’s rally.

His 500-acre cow and sheep farm in South Gloucestershire has been in his family since 1939.

“We’ve probably buried our head in the sand a little bit. I think, back of a fag-packet rough estimates, tax is going to be north of half a million [pounds].”

The government is keen to stress that farmers will get a decade to pay the bill – but that comes as little comfort to Will: “It’s more than our profit in any year that we’ve had in the last 10 years. Dad’s saying we’ll have to sell something. I don’t know if we’ll be able to raise that sort of money through a mortgage. It’s really worrying.”

As anger grows, there continues to be disagreement between the National Farmer’s Union and the Government over how many farms will actually be impacted by the change.

The Treasury says only the wealthiest estates, around 500 of them, will have to pay under the new rules – claiming 72% of farms won’t be impacted.

But farmers say that calculation is incorrect – citing that DEFRA’s own figures show 66% of farms are valued at over £1m and that the government has undervalued many estates.

At the same time as the rally, the NFU is addressing 1,800 of its members in Westminster before they lobby MPs.

More on this story:
Farmers warn of food price hikes
Minister downplays risk of empty shelves if farmers strike

‘Understanding has been betrayed’

Max Sealy represents the NFU Dairy Board in the South of England.

“We have a detailed job to do to explain why this is wrong not just for farming, not just for the countryside and not just for our families, but for the economy in general,” he said.

“This is a bad tax – it’s been badly implemented because it will affect growth productivity in the country.”

He told Sky News Labour made promises to farmers ahead of the election.

“Both Steve Reed and Keir Starmer came to our conference two years ago and told us farming wasn’t a business like any others and that he understood the long-term nature of farming – that understanding has been betrayed,” he said.

And the government say:

In a joint statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Steve Reed said: “Farmers are the backbone of Britain, and we recognise the strength of feeling expressed by farming and rural communities in recent weeks. We are steadfast in our commitment to Britain’s farming industry because food security is national security.

“It’s why we are investing £5bn into farming over the next two years – the largest amount ever directed towards sustainable food production, rural economic growth and nature’s recovery in our country’s history.

“But with public services crumbling and a £22bn fiscal hole that this Government inherited, we have taken difficult decisions.

“The reforms to Agricultural Property Relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on.”

A Met Police spokesperson said it was “well prepared” for the protest and would have officers deployed to ensure it passes off “safely, lawfully and in a way that prevents serious disruption”.