Sky News projection: Labour on course to be largest party – but short of overall majority
After counting more than two million votes cast in the English council elections, a provisional National Share Estimate shows the Conservatives on just 26% of the vote, a 19-point drop compared with the 2019 general election and one of its worst ever performances in any set of local elections.
Labour‘s vote rises from 33% in 2019 to 35% on the current estimate, after more than half the wards have now declared.
The Liberal Democrats are on 16%, an increase of five percentage points on the 2019 election. This follows a familiar pattern where the party does better in council elections than in parliamentary elections.
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Other parties, such as the Greens, Reform, and independents, are projected to be on 22%.
This figure assumes also that votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, places where no local elections took place, are unchanged from the previous election. The same condition applies to the 18 seats in Northern Ireland.
Assuming these changes in vote share occur uniformly across each of the newly drawn parliamentary constituencies in place for the next general election, Labour wins 294 seats and would overtake the Conservatives – but falls 32 seats short of gaining an overall majority.
The Conservatives fall from 372 seats on the new boundaries to just 242 seats, a projected loss of 130 seats. The Liberal Democrats rise from eight to 38 seats.
As is usual in such projections, there are individual constituencies where the count of local votes shows a party “winning” a constituency when the uniform swing suggests otherwise.
Two such examples are Aldershot and Plymouth Moor View, both of which fall to Labour when we aggregate local votes in wards lying within those constituencies.
Employing the same procedure, however, Labour’s seat tally suffers when local votes in constituencies such as Blackburn and Oldham West were “won” by independents when actual votes are counted.
Labour easily retains these constituencies when uniform swing is considered.
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The large vote for others highlights a growing tendency in local elections for some voters to support a range of smaller parties.
This year that tendency is exaggerated still further with the swing away from Labour towards independents in certain parts of the country.
A woman who was stabbed to death in north London has been named by police – as a man was arrested on suspicion of murder.
Pamela Munro, 45, was found with a stab wound and died at the scene in Ayley Croft, Enfield, on Saturday evening, the Metropolitan Police said.
A 29-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of murder on Monday and is in custody, the force added.
Detective Chief Inspector Neil John said: “Investigating officers have worked relentlessly across the weekend to investigate the circumstances around Pamela’s death.
“We continue to support her family who are understandably devastated.”
Police at the scene at Ayley Croft in Enfield
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The Met Police has asked anyone with information or who was driving through Ayley Court between 6.30pm and 7.30pm on Saturday and may have dashcam footage to contact the force.
A “British man” has died after being beaten and set on fire by a mob in Ecuador, according to reports by media in the South American country.
According to reports, the man – who has not been officially identified – had been detained by police after being accused of being involved in a fatal shooting.
Ecuadorian news outlet Ecuavisa reported that the man had been taken to a police station Playas del Cuyabeno, a remote village in the Amazon rainforest.
While there, a group broke into the station and took the man away. He was then set on fire in the street, it is reported, and died from his burns.
The incident reportedly happened in the Playas del Cuyabeno area of Sucumbios province
Another local report, from EXTRA.ec, said that specialist police units had been slow to arrive due to the geographical conditions of the area – which is accessible by river.
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According to reports, police officers at the station apparently decided they could not intervene when the mob arrived out of concerns for their own safety.
It is understood the UK Foreign Office is following up reports about the incident and working with local authorities to confirm the details.
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