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Official figures have raised fears of a deepening public sector drag on the the UK’s economic recovery from recession.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, deteriorated between the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

It measured a 1.0% decline over the period, leaving the figure 2.3% lower than a year ago and even further away from recovering pre-pandemic levels.

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The gap was put at 6.8%.

Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs – like salaries and government funding – that are needed to maintain those services.

While the sector has witnessed hits from the impacts of strikes since the end of the COVID crisis, the NHS has struggled to deal with a worsening backlog in many key waiting lists.

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Rows over funding have been exacerbated by record levels of long-term sickness.

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UK’s economy has ‘turned corner’

The official jobless rate stands at just over 4% – around 1.4 million people.

However, the numbers judged to be economically inactive due to poor health are nearing double that sum.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that the issue has added around £16bn to annual government borrowing bills.

Pressures have been reflected in ONS data, with output in both the health and education sectors falling during the fourth quarter of the year – contributing to the country’s recession.

That was despite rising inputs over the period.

Back in March, chancellor Jeremy Hunt used his budget to announce a Public Sector Productivity Plan – with an emphasis on improving technology in the National Health Service (NHS).

Figures next week are widely expected to confirm the end of the recession, with overall output returning to growth during the first quarter of the year.

Recent private sector surveys have painted a rosy picture for the dominant services sector, which accounts for almost 80% of overall output, despite continued pressure on budgets from the impact of higher inflation and interest rates to help cure the price problem.

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Cambridge college puts O2 arena lease up for sale

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Cambridge college puts O2 arena lease up for sale

Cambridge University’s wealthiest college is putting the long-term lease of London’s O2 arena up for sale.

Sky News has learnt that Trinity College has instructed property advisers to begin sounding out prospective investors about a deal.

Trinity, which ranks among Britain’s biggest landowners, acquired the site in 2009 for a reported £24m.

The O2, which shrugged off its ‘white elephant’ status in the aftermath of its disastrous debut in 2000, has since become one of the world’s leading entertainment venues.

Operated by Anschutz Entertainment Group, it has played host to a wide array of music, theatrical and sporting events over nearly a quarter of a century.

The opportunity to acquire the 999-year lease is likely to appeal to long-term income investment funds, with real estate funds saying they expected it to fetch tens of millions of pounds.

Trinity College bought the lease from Lend Lease and Quintain, the property companies which had taken control of the Millennium Dome site in 2002 for nothing.

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The college was founded by Henry VIII in 1546 and has amassed a vast property portfolio.

It was unclear on Friday why it had decided to call in advisers at this point to undertake a sale process.

Trinity College Cambridge did not respond to two requests for comment.

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Surprise fall in retail sales a sign economy is slowing

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Surprise fall in retail sales a sign economy is slowing

Budget fears and unseasonably warm weather led to consumers spending far less than expected last month, according to official figures.

In a sign of a slowing economy, retail sales fell a sharp 0.7%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The fall was larger than expected. A drop of 0.3% was forecasted by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.

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Clothing stores were particularly affected, where sales fell by 3.1% over the month as October temperatures remained high, putting shoppers off winter purchases.

Retailers across the board, however, reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the budget, the ONS added.

Just a month earlier, in September, spending rose by 0.1%.

Despite the October fall, the ONS pointed out that the trend is for sales increases on a yearly and three-monthly basis and for them to be lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption measured by the data is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can also help track how consumers feel about their financial position and the economy more broadly.

Another signal of a slowing economy was the latest growth figures which showed a smaller-than-expected GDP (gross domestic product) measurement.

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Business owners worried after budget

Consumer confidence could be bouncing back

Also released on Friday was news of a rise in consumer confidence in the weeks following the budget and the US election.

Market research company GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index “jumped” in November, the company said, as people intended to make Black Friday purchases.

It noted that inflation has yet to be tamed with people still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures.

It will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of change, it added.

A quirk in the figures

Economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the dates included in the ONS’s retail sales figures could have distorted the headline figure.

The half-term break, during which spending typically increases, was excluded from the monthly statistics as the cut-off point was 26 October.

With cold weather gripping the UK this week clothing sales are likely to rise as delayed winter clothing purchases are made, Pantheon added.

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Post Office scandal: At least eight convictions linked to Capture software being investigated as possible miscarriages of justice

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Post Office scandal: At least 8 convictions may be linked to second IT system used by Post Office

At least eight convictions predating the Horizon Post Office scandal are being looked at by the body investigating potential miscarriages of justice, Sky News has learned.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) has confirmed it is examining multiple cases of former sub-postmasters affected by Capture software.

The computer accounting system was used in the early 1990s, prior to Horizon being introduced to Post Office branches from 1999 onwards.

Horizon was at the centre of the Post Office scandal and saw hundreds of sub-postmasters wrongly convicted of stealing from their branches.

The Kroll report, commissioned by the government earlier this year, found that Capture had bugs and glitches and there was a reasonable likelihood it had caused cash shortfalls too.

Lord Beamish, the former Labour MP Kevan Jones, has been supporting victims and is calling for the government to extend current legislation to automatically quash convictions.

The Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Act was passed in May but does not include Capture victims.

Lord Beamish told Sky News he has raised the issue with the justice secretary and called for a House of Lords debate.

“The government are going to have to take this seriously,” he said. “We can’t have a situation where we have a two-tier system where people get exonerated from Horizon and the Capture cases are either forgotten or have to go through a very lengthy legal process to get their names cleared.”

Chris Roberts whose mother Liz Roberts who was convicted in 1999 of stealing £46,000 from the Post Office and spent 13 months behind bars. Her conviction relates to the use of Post Office Capture software (precursor to Horizon) which is being investigated in connection with potential miscarriages of justice
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Chris claims his mother was wrongly jailed because of accounting problems with the Post Office software Capture

He added he had “little faith” in the CCRC’s “ability to deal with cases”, after multiple Horizon cases were referred to the body years ago.

“The problem with these cases is the lack of evidence… that has been destroyed or lost – so actually proving some of these cases through that process will be very difficult.

“Therefore I think a blanket exoneration like we had with Horizon I think has got to be discussed and considered for these cases.”

The CCRC told Sky News it has five cases under review “in which the Capture IT system could be a factor”.

It also said it is “seeking further information” on eight cases referenced in the Kroll report.

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The CCRC added that the time taken for a case review to be completed was dependent on the “complexity” of each case “and how readily available information about it is”. In a statement, it admitted: “The availability of information can be a particular hurdle in older cases.”

Chris Roberts and his mother Liz Roberts who was convicted in 1999 of stealing £46,000 from the Post Office and spent 13 months behind bars. Liz was in the advanced stages of Alzheimer’s disease and died in 2024. Her conviction relates to the use of Post Office Capture software (precursor to Horizon) which is being investigated in connection with potential miscarriages of justice
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Chris’s mother died earlier this year following a battle with Alzheimer’s and never got to clear her name

Chris Roberts’s mother, Liz Roberts, was convicted in 1999 of stealing £46,000 from the Post Office and spent 13 months behind bars.

Liz, who was in the advanced stages of Alzheimer’s disease, passed away earlier this year.

Chris said she was jailed four days before he turned 17, and he used to have “nightmares” that she was “going to die in there”.

“There was no evidence of any financial gain because they went through everything. And obviously the money wasn’t in our accounts because it didn’t exist,” he added.

Despite being offered “three deals” by the Post Office to plead guilty, Liz refused and was sent to prison.

Liz Roberts who was convicted in 1999 of stealing £46,000 from the Post Office and spent 13 months behind bars. Liz was in the advanced stages of Alzheimer’s disease and died in 2024. Her conviction relates to the use of Post Office Capture software (precursor to Horizon) which is being investigated in connection with potential miscarriages of justice
Image:
Liz Roberts during happier times before she was jailed for theft – her son insists she was innocent

Chris believes that the 2019 High Court win by Horizon victims was a missed opportunity for the Post Office to look back at Capture cases.

“It would have been worth something then because my mum would have died knowing that everybody else knew she was innocent,” he said.

“My dad would have died knowing that the love of his life wasn’t vilified as a criminal.”

Chris wants his mother exonerated and “those actively responsible” to “stand up in court… and justify themselves”.

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Sky’s Adele Robinson examines Britain’s biggest miscarriages of justice

A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “We were horrified to learn about the issues with the Capture system and are working closely across government to thoroughly examine Kroll’s independent report and consider what action should be taken.

“We continue to listen to postmasters and others who have been sharing their views on the report’s findings since its publication last month.”

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