Labour’s future success is less clear-cut after the local elections

Published

1 year ago

May 4, 2024

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We went into this set of local and mayoral elections with two big questions: Is Labour on course for a majority and how bad is it going to be for Rishi Sunak?

On the Sunak question, it’s a very clear-cut story.

The Tories are having as bad a night as their worst nightmare.

There is a 19-point drop in the Conservative vote compared with the 2019 general election – one of its worst performances ever.

But it’s not an all-out win for Labour, either.

As it stands on these results, the party is not on course for an outright majority at the general election, according to our election expert Professor Michael Thrasher.

The projected National Equivalent Vote (NEV) share – the model we use to translate local council elections into a nationwide vote share – puts Labour on 35%, short of the 40%-plus territory some see as needed to catapult Sir Keir Starmer into No 10 and way off what Blair was hitting in the 1995 and 1996 local elections ahead of his massive landslide.

If you want to benchmark against how it compares to Blair’s performance in the run-up to 1997, in the 1995 local elections, Labour achieved an NEV of 47%, while in 1996 the party hit a NEV of 43%.

So what might that mean for the maths in the House of Commons?

The Tory majority is wiped out – with Sunak projected to win a 25% vote share – and Labour becomes the largest party in parliament, but 32 seats short of an outright majority.

That would give them a gain of 93 seats to 294, with the Tories dropping 130 seats to finish with 242.

The Lib Dems would add 30 seats to have 38 MPs, with others up seven on 66.

That raises questions for Labour.

While the country is clear in these results that the government is the problem, they seem less sold on whether Keir Starmer is the answer.

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Of the 260 seats lost by the Conservatives in the council elections as of 5pm on Friday, Labour has picked up less than half as the vote goes to independent and smaller parties.

Labour will argue two things: that they are winning in key battlegrounds across the country they need to win a general election, while voters are likely to turn out in bigger numbers and vote for the main parties when it comes to selecting MPs rather than councillors.

Labour insiders tell me it’s “wrong” to say they are not on course to win a general election.

“We are very happy with the efficiency of the vote from every corner of the country, from Hartlepool down to Thurrock, from Avon and Somerset up to Redditch, millions of people have sent out a message so loud and clear that even the prime minister in his private jet must have heard it,” said one senior figure.

“Labour’s on course to win a majority. We are very happy with where we are. Others and independents won’t get 24% in the general election.

“The voter distribution is where we need to be. In places like Tees Valley we have a huge swing.

“Where do you think all those smaller and independents are going at a general election where there is only a choice of two parties?

“A nine per cent lead is more than enough to win a majority and we are winning the seats we need to win a majority.”

Local election results: Relief for Sunak in key mayoral race

And there are some signs of direct transfer of seats from Tory to Labour in key constituencies.

Rushmoor, a council Blair never won and has been Conservative for 51 years, has switched.

Redditch, in West Midlands, was a straight swap to Labour.

In Swindon, another general election bellwether, Labour extended their lead.

“It’s not just the Tories losing, it’s us winning Rushmoor, Redditch. Whoever wins Redditch wins the country, Thurrock, Hartlepool,” the senior figure added.

“So we are winning in every type of seat, the Red Wall and the Blue Wall.

“Take Rushmoor. The position of a changed Labour Party is showing. Very satisfying that in a general election year, when the Tories are trying to use national security as a dividing line, they lose the home of the British Army.”

For the Tories, it’s a horror show – pure and simple. In Welwyn Hatfield, Portsmouth and Peterborough they are hitting their lowest seats ever, passing records set in 1996 when Blair was Labour leader and on the cusp of a landslide.

But for all the good news for Labour, this is not a slam dunk by any means.

Because, in a nutshell, for all the seats the Tories are haemorrhaging, Labour is not by any means always their main beneficiary, as independents and smaller parties prosper from Conservative decline.

So take the nightmare of Peterborough for the Tories – Labour did well, but it was independents that picked up more seats.

Harlow is the same, with the party unable to unseat the Tories in a council they lost in 2021. The Conservatives lost 11 seats, but seven of those went independent rather than to Labour.

Labour is also struggling in some areas as tensions over the Israel-Hamas war are playing out at the ballot box.

Labour lost several seats to independents in Muslim majority wards, including in Blackburn with Darwen where the Labour vote share was down more than 20 points.

In the Muslim area of Elswick in Newcastle, the Labour vote share plummeted and this time the Greens gained.

The Greens’ co-leader Carla Denyer told Sky News the win was predominantly because of Gaza.

The Greens are picking up seats from the Conservatives too.

The Lib Dems so far are underwhelming after a soaring performance last year, they could pick up when results from the South West and South East start coming in.

There are still plenty of results to go, but what is clear from the counts so far is that Sunak’s Tories are into John Major territory in these last big ballot box tests before the general election.

But what is less clear-cut is whether Sir Keir Starmer is riding the sort of New Labour wave that brought Blair crashing into Downing Street with a landslide in 1997.

Politics

US-UK trade deal ‘done’, says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

Published

6 hours ago

June 17, 2025

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US-UK trade deal 'done', says Trump as he meets Starmer at G7

The UK-US trade deal has been signed and is “done”, US President Donald Trump has said as he met Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit.

The US president told reporters: “We signed it, and it’s done. It’s a fair deal for both. It’ll produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”

As Mr Trump and his British counterpart exited a mountain lodge in the Canadian Rockies where the summit is being held, the US president held up a physical copy of the trade agreement to show reporters.

Several leaves of paper fell from the binding, and Mr Starmer quickly bent down to pick them up, saying: “A very important document.”

Sir Keir said the document “implements” the deal to cut tariffs on cars and aerospace, adding: “So this is a very good day for both of our countries – a real sign of strength.”

Mr Trump added that the UK was “very well protected” against any future tariffs, saying: “You know why? Because I like them”.

However, he did not say whether levies on British steel exports to the US would be set to 0%, saying “we’re gonna let you have that information in a little while”.

What exactly does trade deal being ‘done’ mean?

The government says the US “has committed” to removing tariffs (taxes on imported goods) on UK aerospace goods, such as engines and aircraft parts, which currently stand at 10%.

That is “expected to come into force by the end of the month”.

Tariffs on car imports will drop from 27.5% to 10%, the government says, which “saves car manufacturers hundreds of millions a year, and protects tens of thousands of jobs”.

The White House says there will be a quota of 100,000 cars eligible for import at that level each year.

But on steel, the story is a little more complicated.

The UK is the only country exempted from the global 50% tariff rate on steel – which means the UK rate remains at the original level of 25%.

That tariff was expected to be lifted entirely, but the government now says it will “continue to go further and make progress towards 0% tariffs on core steel products as agreed”.

The White House says the US will “promptly construct a quota at most-favoured-nation rates for steel and aluminium articles”.

Other key parts of the deal include import and export quotas for beef – and the government is keen to emphasise that “any US imports will need to meet UK food safety standards”.

There is no change to tariffs on pharmaceuticals for the moment, and the government says “work will continue to protect industry from any further tariffs imposed”.

The White House says they “committed to negotiate significantly preferential treatment outcomes”.

Mr Trump also praised Sir Keir as a “great” prime minister, adding: “We’ve been talking about this deal for six years, and he’s done what they haven’t been able to do.”

He added: “We’re very longtime partners and allies and friends and we’ve become friends in a short period of time.

“He’s slightly more liberal than me to put it mildly… but we get along.”

Sir Keir added that “we make it work”.

The US president appeared to mistakenly refer to a “trade agreement with the European Union” at one point as he stood alongside the British prime minister.

Mr Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on countries in April. At the time, he announced 10% “reciprocal” rates on all UK exports – as well as separately announced 25% levies on cars and steel.

In a joint televised phone call in May, Sir Keir and Mr Trump announced the UK and US had agreed on a trade deal – but added the details were being finalised.

Ahead of the G7 summit, the prime minister said he would meet Mr Trump for “one-on-one” talks, and added the agreement “really matters for the vital sectors that are safeguarded under our deal, and we’ve got to implement that”.

Politics

Abortion debate reignited as Sky poll reveals public’s view on decriminalisation ahead of Commons vote

Published

6 hours ago

June 17, 2025

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Abortion debate reignited as Sky poll reveals public's view on decriminalisation ahead of Commons vote

A small group have gathered in the main square in the centre of Birmingham, and it’s a real mix of people. There are older figures from the community, young students, as well as groups of friends and some families.

On closer inspection, you can make out candles and rosary beads, signalling it’s some kind of vigil. As hymns start to be sung, it’s revealed to be a gathering to protest against abortion.

Nearly 90% of this country is pro-choice, but a small, vocal minority is becoming more organised in the UK.

Energised by the Trump administration, young and old activists in the UK anti-abortion movement have become more motivated to get their message across.

And all this is happening just as abortion laws in the UK could be about to go through the most significant change in over 50 years.

Nearly three years on from the ruling reversing Roe v Wade – a landmark case that once made abortion legal in the US – the age-old abortion debate has become even more political in the UK.

A breakthrough moment came when Vice President JD Vance criticised the UK laws on abortion buffer zones – areas outside clinics where police are allowed to use their discretion to stop anyone harassing women entering abortion clinics.

Explained: What are the UK’s abortion laws?

One of the cases cited by the vice president was that of Isabel Vaughan-Spruce.

She’s a lifelong anti-abortion activist who has been handing out leaflets outside clinics for 20 years. Since buffer zones came into force, she now visits to silently pray once a week. In 2022, she was arrested outside an abortion clinic for silent prayer and taken to court, although the charges were later dropped.

She also received £13,000 in a civil claim against West Midlands Police, which did not admit liability.

“They actually asked me what I was doing, and I said, well, I’m just physically standing here. I might be praying in my head, but nothing out loud. And on that basis, they made an arrest. I was heavily searched, I was taken to the police station, locked in a police cell for hours before being questioned under caution. And then, eventually, I went to court.

“I believe that abortion centres are like the modern-day Calvary. This is where the innocent are being put to death. I might not be physically interacting with anybody or stopping anyone or talking to anyone, just to be there in prayer is really, really important from a spiritual perspective.”

For people like Ailish McEntee, any type of protest is a distraction, which she says is not wanted by the women who come to the clinic she works at in London. She’s hoping that this week MPs will go further on abortion laws and pass an amendment through the Commons to decriminalise abortion for anyone seeking an abortion up to 24 weeks.

“The law itself works very well for the majority of people, but for those individuals in those kind of really high-risk domestic abuse situations… they maybe can’t make it to a clinic, they might seek abortion care from those kind of unregulated providers.

“So this amendment would take away that decriminalisation of women themselves. And it’s a really strange part of the law that we have.

“I think particularly in recent years, with Roe v Wade overturning and Donald Trump winning the election again, I think it’s really pushed forward the anti-choice rhetoric that has always been there, but it’s absolutely ramping up.”

According to polling by Sky News and YouGov, 55% of people are in favour of the law changing to stop women being criminalised for their own abortion before 24 weeks.

Surprisingly though, 22% said they believe women should be investigated or imprisoned for abortion after 24 weeks.

Stella Creasy is one of the MPs laying down an amendment to try to decriminalise abortion.

“There’s no other health care provision that we see with a criminal foundation in this way and it has a very real practical consequence.

“We’ve seen some incredibly vulnerable women and girls who didn’t even know that they were pregnant who have late-term miscarriages finding themselves with police officers rather than counsellors at their hospital beds finding themselves under suspicion for months, if not years, and I just don’t think that’s where the British public are at.”

But Rachel is concerned by this amendment. She runs sessions at the UK arm of Rachel’s Vineyard – a faith-based organisation originally founded in the United States, dedicated to, in their words, “healing the trauma of abortion”. They frame abortion not as a medical procedure, but as a harm to mothers and fathers.

“With all sudden deaths, whether you are 80 years of age or you’re 26 weeks born, you know, out of the womb, and you’ve died, you’ve sadly died, we need to be able to investigate that. For us to have compassion, we need to have justice.”

In Northern Ireland, where the decriminalisation battle was won in 2019, I met Emma, who fought on the campaign at Alliance for Choice.

She says police searches were a daily routine for her, and since 2019, she has been able to continue helping women navigate abortion care without the threat of being investigated.

Orfhlaith Campbell should have been one of the lucky ones. She was able to seek a medical abortion at 23 weeks in Northern Ireland, two years after it had been decriminalised, but she says she had to fight to get the care she needed.

She was on the cusp of the medical time limit when she suffered a premature rupture of membranes, went into labour and was told she would likely develop sepsis.

“I would have died and my daughter was dying, I could feel her dying, and it was a compassionate choice. When we got the post-mortem after, the infection had went into her wee body too, and she had nuclear debris in her lungs. If she had survived at all, it would have been a very, very painful existence.

“So yes, I had to break through the stigma that had been ingrained in me in Northern Ireland. I had to break through legal fights and the barriers that were being put in place. But I was strong enough to know that that was compassionate and that healthcare was needed both for me and her.”

The UK is majority pro-choice, and our polling shows the majority are for decriminalising abortion.

But activists who are against abortion are energised by the changing landscape of the debate in the US.

As parliament sets to vote on two amendments on abortion laws this week and potentially pulls in one direction, activists will likely only get louder and become more effective at getting their message across.