Labour’s future success is less clear-cut after the local elections

Published

7 months ago

May 4, 2024

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We went into this set of local and mayoral elections with two big questions: Is Labour on course for a majority and how bad is it going to be for Rishi Sunak?

On the Sunak question, it’s a very clear-cut story.

The Tories are having as bad a night as their worst nightmare.

There is a 19-point drop in the Conservative vote compared with the 2019 general election – one of its worst performances ever.

But it’s not an all-out win for Labour, either.

As it stands on these results, the party is not on course for an outright majority at the general election, according to our election expert Professor Michael Thrasher.

The projected National Equivalent Vote (NEV) share – the model we use to translate local council elections into a nationwide vote share – puts Labour on 35%, short of the 40%-plus territory some see as needed to catapult Sir Keir Starmer into No 10 and way off what Blair was hitting in the 1995 and 1996 local elections ahead of his massive landslide.

If you want to benchmark against how it compares to Blair’s performance in the run-up to 1997, in the 1995 local elections, Labour achieved an NEV of 47%, while in 1996 the party hit a NEV of 43%.

So what might that mean for the maths in the House of Commons?

The Tory majority is wiped out – with Sunak projected to win a 25% vote share – and Labour becomes the largest party in parliament, but 32 seats short of an outright majority.

That would give them a gain of 93 seats to 294, with the Tories dropping 130 seats to finish with 242.

The Lib Dems would add 30 seats to have 38 MPs, with others up seven on 66.

That raises questions for Labour.

While the country is clear in these results that the government is the problem, they seem less sold on whether Keir Starmer is the answer.

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Of the 260 seats lost by the Conservatives in the council elections as of 5pm on Friday, Labour has picked up less than half as the vote goes to independent and smaller parties.

Labour will argue two things: that they are winning in key battlegrounds across the country they need to win a general election, while voters are likely to turn out in bigger numbers and vote for the main parties when it comes to selecting MPs rather than councillors.

Labour insiders tell me it’s “wrong” to say they are not on course to win a general election.

“We are very happy with the efficiency of the vote from every corner of the country, from Hartlepool down to Thurrock, from Avon and Somerset up to Redditch, millions of people have sent out a message so loud and clear that even the prime minister in his private jet must have heard it,” said one senior figure.

“Labour’s on course to win a majority. We are very happy with where we are. Others and independents won’t get 24% in the general election.

“The voter distribution is where we need to be. In places like Tees Valley we have a huge swing.

“Where do you think all those smaller and independents are going at a general election where there is only a choice of two parties?

“A nine per cent lead is more than enough to win a majority and we are winning the seats we need to win a majority.”

Local election results: Relief for Sunak in key mayoral race

And there are some signs of direct transfer of seats from Tory to Labour in key constituencies.

Rushmoor, a council Blair never won and has been Conservative for 51 years, has switched.

Redditch, in West Midlands, was a straight swap to Labour.

In Swindon, another general election bellwether, Labour extended their lead.

“It’s not just the Tories losing, it’s us winning Rushmoor, Redditch. Whoever wins Redditch wins the country, Thurrock, Hartlepool,” the senior figure added.

“So we are winning in every type of seat, the Red Wall and the Blue Wall.

“Take Rushmoor. The position of a changed Labour Party is showing. Very satisfying that in a general election year, when the Tories are trying to use national security as a dividing line, they lose the home of the British Army.”

For the Tories, it’s a horror show – pure and simple. In Welwyn Hatfield, Portsmouth and Peterborough they are hitting their lowest seats ever, passing records set in 1996 when Blair was Labour leader and on the cusp of a landslide.

But for all the good news for Labour, this is not a slam dunk by any means.

Because, in a nutshell, for all the seats the Tories are haemorrhaging, Labour is not by any means always their main beneficiary, as independents and smaller parties prosper from Conservative decline.

So take the nightmare of Peterborough for the Tories – Labour did well, but it was independents that picked up more seats.

Harlow is the same, with the party unable to unseat the Tories in a council they lost in 2021. The Conservatives lost 11 seats, but seven of those went independent rather than to Labour.

Labour is also struggling in some areas as tensions over the Israel-Hamas war are playing out at the ballot box.

Labour lost several seats to independents in Muslim majority wards, including in Blackburn with Darwen where the Labour vote share was down more than 20 points.

In the Muslim area of Elswick in Newcastle, the Labour vote share plummeted and this time the Greens gained.

The Greens’ co-leader Carla Denyer told Sky News the win was predominantly because of Gaza.

The Greens are picking up seats from the Conservatives too.

The Lib Dems so far are underwhelming after a soaring performance last year, they could pick up when results from the South West and South East start coming in.

There are still plenty of results to go, but what is clear from the counts so far is that Sunak’s Tories are into John Major territory in these last big ballot box tests before the general election.

But what is less clear-cut is whether Sir Keir Starmer is riding the sort of New Labour wave that brought Blair crashing into Downing Street with a landslide in 1997.

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Published

3 hours ago

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Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Published

4 hours ago

November 19, 2024

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Thousands of farmers to descend on Downing Street to protest against inheritance tax changes

Thousands of farmers from across the UK are expected to gather outside Downing Street today – in the biggest protest yet against the government’s changes to inheritance tax rules.

The reforms, announced in last month’s budget, will mean farms worth over £1m will be subject to 20% inheritance tax from April 2026.

Farmers say that will lead to land being sold to pay the tax bill, impact food security and the future of British farming.

The Government insists it is “committed” to the farming industry but has had to make “difficult decisions”.

Farmers from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will arrive in London to hear speeches from agricultural leaders.

Sky News understands TV presenter and farm owner Jeremy Clarkson, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will also address crowds.

Protestors will then march around Parliament Square.

‘It’s really worrying’

“It’s unfortunate, as Labour had originally said they would support farmers,” said fourth-generation farmer Will Weaver, who is attending today’s rally.

His 500-acre cow and sheep farm in South Gloucestershire has been in his family since 1939.

“We’ve probably buried our head in the sand a little bit. I think, back of a fag-packet rough estimates, tax is going to be north of half a million [pounds].”

The government is keen to stress that farmers will get a decade to pay the bill – but that comes as little comfort to Will: “It’s more than our profit in any year that we’ve had in the last 10 years. Dad’s saying we’ll have to sell something. I don’t know if we’ll be able to raise that sort of money through a mortgage. It’s really worrying.”

As anger grows, there continues to be disagreement between the National Farmer’s Union and the Government over how many farms will actually be impacted by the change.

The Treasury says only the wealthiest estates, around 500 of them, will have to pay under the new rules – claiming 72% of farms won’t be impacted.

But farmers say that calculation is incorrect – citing that DEFRA’s own figures show 66% of farms are valued at over £1m and that the government has undervalued many estates.

At the same time as the rally, the NFU is addressing 1,800 of its members in Westminster before they lobby MPs.

More on this story:
Farmers warn of food price hikes
Minister downplays risk of empty shelves if farmers strike

‘Understanding has been betrayed’

Max Sealy represents the NFU Dairy Board in the South of England.

“We have a detailed job to do to explain why this is wrong not just for farming, not just for the countryside and not just for our families, but for the economy in general,” he said.

“This is a bad tax – it’s been badly implemented because it will affect growth productivity in the country.”

He told Sky News Labour made promises to farmers ahead of the election.

“Both Steve Reed and Keir Starmer came to our conference two years ago and told us farming wasn’t a business like any others and that he understood the long-term nature of farming – that understanding has been betrayed,” he said.

And the government say:

In a joint statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Steve Reed said: “Farmers are the backbone of Britain, and we recognise the strength of feeling expressed by farming and rural communities in recent weeks. We are steadfast in our commitment to Britain’s farming industry because food security is national security.

“It’s why we are investing £5bn into farming over the next two years – the largest amount ever directed towards sustainable food production, rural economic growth and nature’s recovery in our country’s history.

“But with public services crumbling and a £22bn fiscal hole that this Government inherited, we have taken difficult decisions.

“The reforms to Agricultural Property Relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on.”

A Met Police spokesperson said it was “well prepared” for the protest and would have officers deployed to ensure it passes off “safely, lawfully and in a way that prevents serious disruption”.