Sex offenders could face chemical castration and thousands of offenders will be released after serving a third of their jail term, under plans proposed in a sentencing policy review set to be accepted by ministers.

The independent review, led by the former justice secretary David Gauke, was commissioned by the government amid an overcrowding crisis in prisons in England and Wales.

It has made a series of recommendations with the aim of reducing the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028.

The key proposal, which it is understood the government will implement, is a “progression model” – which would see offenders who behave well in jail only serve a third of their term in custody, before being released.

The measure will apply to people serving standard determinate sentences, which is the most common type of jail term, being served by the majority of offenders.

It will be based on sentence length, rather than offence type. That means sex offenders and domestic abusers serving sentences of under four years, could all be eligible for early release.

The policy will mean inmates serve only a third of their sentence in prison, a third on licence in the community, with the remaining portion under no probation supervision at all.

If the offender committed further offences in the “at risk” – or final – stages of their sentence, once out of prison, they would be sent back to jail to serve the remainder of the original sentence, plus time inside jail for the new offence.

Chemical castration trial could be extended

The government will also further the use of medication to suppress the sexual drive of sex offenders, which is currently being piloted in southwest England.

The review recommended that chemical castration “may assist in management of suitable sex offenders both in prison and in the community”.

Ministers are to announce plans for a nationwide rollout, and will first expand the use of the medication to 20 prisons across England.

The justice secretary is also considering whether to make castration mandatory. It’s currently voluntary.

Mr Gauke, the chair of the independent sentencing review, told Sky News that “drugs that reduce sexual desire” will not be “appropriate for every sexual offender”.

“I’m not going to claim it’s the answer for everything,” the former justice secretary said. “This is about reducing the risk of re-offending in future.

“There are some sex offenders who want to reduce their desires and if we can explore this, I think that is something that’s worthwhile.”

However, Mr Gauke stressed that the government needs to focus on “reducing crime overall”.

Domestic abuse commissioner criticises plans

Under his recommendations, violent offenders who are serving sentences of four years or more could be released on licence after spending half of their sentence behind bars. This could be extended if they do not comply with prison rules. These prisoners would then be supervised in the community until 80% of their sentence.

In response to the review, the police have warned: “Out of prison should not mean out of control.”

“If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside of prison,” said Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett at the National Police Chiefs Council.

The domestic abuse commissioner for England and Wales, Nicole Jacobs, said adopting the measures would amount to “watering down” the criminal justice system.

“By adopting these measures the government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence,” she said.

In a set of proposals considered to be the biggest overhaul of sentencing power laws since the 1990s, judges could be given more flexibility to punish lower level offenders with bans on football or driving.

The review has also recommended that short sentences should only be used in “exceptional circumstances”, suggesting they are “associated with higher proven reoffending” and “fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders”.

The Howard League for Penal Reform has welcomed the proposals as a “good start”.

“This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime,” said chief executive Andrea Coomber.

David Gauke’s review has called on the government to “invest” in a probation service that is “under significant strain”, as its proposals recommend a larger number of offenders should be punished and supervised in the community.

“Tagging can be a useful way to monitor offenders and identify escalating risks,” it said.

The government is set to invest a further £700m in the probation service and introduce a mass expansion of tagging technology, where tens of thousands of criminals will be monitored at any one time, creating a “prison outside of a prison”, with the help of US tech companies.

‘Overriding concerns’

The Victims Commissioner, Baroness Newlove, has expressed an “overriding concern” about the ability of an “already stretched probation service” to “withstand the additional pressure” of managing a larger number of people outside of prison.

The policy review also makes recommendations around offenders that are recalled to prison after breaching their licence conditions.

Currently, around 15% of those behind bars are there because they have been recalled. Mostly, it’s for breaching of licence conditions, rather than further offences.

The review recommends a “tighter threshold” for recall so that it is “only used to address consistent non-compliance”, with licence conditions – which can include missing a probation appointment.

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Last week the government announced plans that will see offenders serving one to four-year sentences held for a fixed 28-day period if they are returned to jail.

The review suggests increasing that limit to 56 days, in order to “allow sufficient time for planning around appropriate conditions for safe re-release into community supervision”.

The government is expected to accept the review’s key measures, and implement them with a sentencing bill before parliament.

The plans will likely require legislation and only be before the courts by the spring of 2026.