Connect with us

Published

on

The spring is prime overreaction time in college football.

Where are the breakout freshmen, backup QBs-turned-Heisman contenders and transfers who could be the missing piece in a deep CFP run?

With spring ball wrapped up and the summer’s “talking season” rapidly approaching, our reporters take a look at notable overreactions for each team in our latest Top 25 offseason power rankings.

Overreaction: Georgia’s offense won’t be nearly as good without star tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey.

There’s no question the Bulldogs are going to miss the two aforementioned pass-catchers, who were selected with the 13th and 34th pick in last month’s NFL draft, respectively. Both players were explosive after the catch and served as safety valves for quarterback Carson Beck, who was confident they’d be open when they were on the field. But Georgia still has plenty of firepower returning and more talent coming this summer.

Beck should be even better in his second full season as a starter — he’s trending as the potential No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Dominic Lovett and Rara Thomas should emerge as go-to receivers after transferring to Georgia before the 2023 season, and Dillon Bell is a versatile playmaker as well. Miami transfer Colbie Young looked like a red-zone threat in the spring. Junior tight end Oscar Delp is another future NFL draft pick, and Stanford transfer Benjamin Yurosek will give Beck another proven target. — Mark Schlabach


Overreaction: Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith will immediately take over for Marvin Harrison Jr. as Ohio State’s No. 1 WR.

The buzz this spring around Smith, the No. 4 overall recruit in this freshman class, was palpable. Smith dazzled throughout the spring with his body control and big-play ability. Clearly he has the potential to be, like Harrison, a high draft pick himself down the line.

But Emeka Egbuka reminded everyone in the spring game why he’ll be the Buckeyes’ go-to target in 2024 with a series of impressive catches, including a one-handed grab along the boundary. The senior leader will bring stability to an Ohio State offense that will feature a new quarterback and new playcaller in Chip Kelly. — Jake Trotter


Overreaction: The Ducks are going to be one of the most physical teams in the new Big Ten.

There’s plenty of skepticism about how the former Pac-12 teams like USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon are going to fare in their first season playing physical, defensive-minded Big Ten football. USC, for example, has made it a point to try and beef up its lines on both sides of the ball and though that remains a work in progress, there’s little doubt that the Ducks already have that pedigree going into this season. Their spring game was a manifestation of that.

While other teams took on a “thud” approach where they weren’t fully tackling each other, Dan Lanning’s team went all out with full tackling during its game (except for the quarterbacks) and showed off their athleticism. “Football requires a certain level of effort and physicality and that doesn’t happen by accident,” Lanning said after the Ducks’ spring game. “You have to practice it. Are we smart with our players? Yeah, absolutely. But we want to take advantage of every opportunity on the field.” Come Big Ten play, Oregon should be more than equipped to take on its opponents. — Paolo Uggetti


Overreaction: There’s a quarterback controversy.

Arch Manning electrified a stadium with plenty of fans wearing his No. 16 jersey during the spring game, throwing for 355 yards and three touchdowns, looking in command and locked in on deep passes all day, while Quinn Ewers threw a pick-six on one of his two drives. But there’s no controversy.

Two years ago, when Ewers struggled in multiple games midway through the season, the Longhorns had a capable backup in Hudson Card, who transferred and started 11 games last year at Purdue, but Sarkisian allowed Ewers to ride it out and kept Card on the bench. Those growing pains paid off last season when Ewers led the Longhorns to the College Football Playoff, throwing for 3,479 yards, 22 touchdowns and six INTs through the season. Sarkisian knows and likes what he has in Ewers, who is projected to be a top-10 NFL draft pick next year. Sarkisian planned all along to let Manning get a spring showcase to keep developing for next season. — Dave Wilson


Overreaction: Former Duke QB Riley Leonard is injury-prone.

The big get of portal season for Notre Dame was Leonard, who figures to be the catalyst for the Irish offense in 2024. Only problem? No one has seen him play in a Notre Dame uniform yet. After enduring a significant ankle injury last year — against Notre Dame — he dealt with turf toe and then required an additional surgery on the ankle that kept him out of spring ball.

Does that mean Leonard will be playing catch-up all summer? Will he even be healthy enough to get the work he needs to be ready for Week 1? Not to worry — Leonard is a veteran. The light spring might ultimately be a benefit, in that it gave him time to heal and study the offense before being thrown into the fire. — David Hale


Overreaction: There’s no such thing as “rat poison.”

First of all, Lane Kiffin knows better. He has repeated the phrase often after hearing his former boss, Nick Saban, lament what rat poison could do to a football team that gets too full of itself after reading its press clippings. Not since the John Vaught years has Ole Miss received this kind of love going into a season.

There’s no doubt that this is Kiffin’s most talented team, and he has added impact players on both sides of the ball. Not to mention, he returns a top-flight quarterback in Jaxson Dart who will be in his third year as a starter. But no matter how hard you downplay it, there’s a different dynamic to going out and performing at a high level when everybody expects it and is touts how good you are. This will be a different world for an Ole Miss team that enters 2024 with a playoff-or-bust label. Certainly, rat poison isn’t unbeaten, but it’s real. — Chris Low


Overreaction: Offensive line could hold back the offense.

The Tigers lost All-SEC tackle Javon Foster to the NFL draft as well as two other offensive linemen, Xavier Delgado and Marcellus Johnson, who signed as free agents. Granted, every good offensive line has the proper chemistry and cohesion that comes from players accustomed to playing alongside each other.

That said, the Tigers strengthened themselves significantly on the offensive line over the past four months by bringing in transfer tackles Marcus Bryant (SMU) and Cayden Green (Oklahoma). They join three returning starters, and if the Tigers can stay healthy up front, they’re plenty talented enough to give quarterback Brady Cook and his playmakers on offense the time and space to be a team that averages more than 30 points per game for a second straight season. — Low


Overreaction: Penn State’s pass protection is primed to fall apart.

With Olumuyiwa Fashanu and Caedan Wallace manning the tackle spots last year, the Nittany Lions allowed only 16 sacks, second fewest in the Big Ten. In last month’s draft, Fashanu went 11th overall to the New York Jets, and Wallace went in the third round to the New England Patriots.

Still, Penn State should be solid in protecting QB Drew Allar with players such as Drew Shelton, its swing tackle the past two years, and Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci potentially stepping into the starting tackle spots. — Trotter


Overreaction: A quarterback controversy is brewing.

Let’s pump the brakes on a quarterback controversy looming in Tuscaloosa as Kalen DeBoer takes over for Nick Saban as Alabama’s coach. The Tide staff loved what they saw this spring from Ty Simpson and the steps he took. He was much more decisive in his decision-making and played with more confidence than he did last spring and preseason when he was competing for the starting job.

But Alabama’s starter unequivocally remains Jalen Milroe, who was the key to Alabama’s transformation a year ago from an above-average team to a playoff team. Milroe should thrive in DeBoer’s system and has a year of experience to build on as a second-year starter. The best news for the Crimson Tide is that they have two quarterbacks they believe in, and that’s always comforting going into a season. — Low


Overreaction: Cam Rising and Dorian Singer are going to be one of the most potent QB-WR duos.

Both Rising and Singer are coming off of less-than-ideal 2023 seasons. Rising sat out the entire year recovering from knee surgery, while Singer had transferred to USC after a 1,105-yard season at Arizona only to struggle in the Trojans’ crowded receivers room (289 receiving yards and three touchdowns). A fresh start under an experienced quarterback is exactly what Singer may need in order to get back to his 2022 form.

Rising, meanwhile, is back healthy for one last hurrah in Salt Lake City and should benefit greatly from having a top wideout option like Singer. The two seem to have already developed some chemistry throughout spring, connecting on five passes for 92 yards in the Utes’ spring game. — Uggetti


Overreaction: Noah Fifita is primed for a Heisman-level season.

After a stunning breakout freshman season from Fifita where he threw for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns in just nine starts, Fifita is now getting what he didn’t get last year: a full offseason to prepare to be the Wildcats’ starting quarterback. During spring ball, he has stepped confidently into that role.

With standout wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan staying in Tucson despite the coaching change from Jedd Fisch to Brent Brennan, Fifita has the ingredients to build upon his first season under center and show why he may be not only the Big 12’s best offensive player, but could be one of the nation’s best, too. — Uggetti


Overreaction: DBU is back.

It wasn’t long ago that LSU dubbed itself “Defensive Back University” and deservedly so, after the Tigers sent Tyrann Mathieu, Patrick Peterson, Corey Webster and so many other great defensive backs to the NFL. Last season, however, the Tigers struggled to cover just about everyone. LSU ranked 108th in the FBS in pass defense (255.6 yards) and 108th in total defense (416.6).

Tigers coach Brian Kelly blew up his defensive staff, poaching coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri and bringing back longtime secondary coach Corey Raymond from Florida. The secondary took its lumps against quarterback Garrett Nussmeier during the spring game but bowed its neck and made some stops as well. If young players such as cornerbacks Ashton Stamps and P.J. Woodland and safeties Dashawn McBryde and Kylin Jackson continue to develop, the coaches should at least have more depth and talent in 2024. — Schlabach


Overreaction: The transition from Jim Harbaugh to Sherrone Moore will be seamless.

Moore showed down the stretch, as Michigan’s interim coach last season, that he’s ready to lead the Wolverines. But Michigan lost 13 players to the NFL draft, two more than any other program (ahead of Texas). That included quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who went 10th overall to the Minnesota Vikings.

With a new starting quarterback still to be determined, and several new starters on either side of the ball, the reigning national champions could endure some early growing pains at the outset of the Moore era in Ann Arbor. — Trotter


Overreaction: The Sooners’ offensive line will be their undoing.

Oklahoma lost five offensive linemen who made up the bulk of its starts and career snaps, not to mention its offensive coordinator (Jeff Lebby, the new Mississippi State coach) and quarterback (Dillon Gabriel, who transferred to Oregon). Not ideal heading into its first SEC season. But the Sooners boast one of the top offensive line coaches in the country in Bill Bedenbaugh, who is piecing together transfers from Washington, Michigan State and USC, among others, to pair with young OU linemen.

There were plenty of concerns when QB Jackson Arnold, Gabriel’s replacement, threw three interceptions in an Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. But since then, the Sooners elevated former North Texas head coach Seth Littrell to OC and brought in Purdue WR Deion Burks (who had five catches for 174 yards and two touchdowns in the spring game) and Southeastern Louisiana tight end transfer Bauer Sharp to an already talented group of receivers. The Sooners will be able to move the ball, and if the defense under new coordinator Zac Alley can keep the Sooners from becoming one-dimensional, that will allow Littrell to scheme his way out of any growing pains up front. — Wilson


Overreaction: The offense will take a step back.

This is a natural assumption after Florida State lost Jordan Travis, Trey Benson, Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson to the NFL draft. Florida State addressed this in the transfer portal, signing quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, receivers Malik Benson and Jalen Brown, and running backs Roydell Williams and Jaylin Lucas. While the running game looks like it has potential to be a force, the offense left unanswered questions following the Spring Showcase.

No official stats were kept, but Uiagalelei was inconsistent, and beyond Benson, the receiver group didn’t step up the way it needed to. Coach Mike Norvell referenced missed opportunities and dropped balls in his news conference afterward. — Andrea Adelson


Overreaction: Nico Iamaleava for Heisman.

Anybody who has seen Iamaleava throw the ball and deftly work his way around the pocket knows what an immense talent Tennessee’s first-year starting quarterback is. But there’s such a thing as too much hype (and too many expectations) too soon. His performance in the win over Iowa in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl was promising, but bowl games aren’t always a great indicator of what comes next.

The Vols need to play well around Iamaleava this season, both in the way the offensive line protects him and the way his skill players make plays. Iamaleava is well-liked in the locker room and has shown no entitlement despite all the attention he’s received. But now comes the real challenge — performing consistently week in and week out against the grind of an SEC schedule. Iamaleava also needs to bulk up. Unlike his arm talent, his durability could be a question. — Low


Overreaction: No more spring games in Stillwater?

For the second year in a row, the Pokes didn’t have a spring game because of construction at Boone Pickens Stadium. Not having a spring game is not unusual. Mike Gundy is not the biggest fan of the spectacle for good reasons, such as protecting players from injury. However, the one big caveat that Gundy acknowledged is the fan aspect of it, and how it’s also for them.

Until they find a replacement, we’ll file this in the “overreaction” category, even though I would expect them to find a replacement fan event or engagement eventually. — Harry Lyles Jr.


Overreaction: The offense is going to be electric.

When the Wolfpack’s first-team offense put up 51 points in the spring game — highlighted by explosive performances from transfer QB Grayson McCall, transfer receiver Noah Rogers and transfer tight end Justin Joly — NC State fans had every right to be overjoyed.

It’s hard to recall the last time the Pack had so many playmakers at skill positions. Enter: KC Concepcion, Jordan Waters and Hollywood Smothers. But let’s tap the brakes just a bit. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae should have plenty of on-field talent this season, but NC State hasn’t had an 1,000-yard receiver or rusher since 2018. The spring offered reason for optimism, but we want to see it against real competition before we’re sold. — Hale


Overreaction: The offense is a disaster.

You can forgive Clemson fans for a bit of offensive pessimism after three straight years of frustrating performances. The days of quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence feel like a bygone era, and the dismal performance from the spring game tells us little about how the Tigers might rebound in 2024.

The units were split, so Cade Klubnik wasn’t playing with his full arsenal of first-team impact players such as Jake Briningstool and Tyler Brown. And the game plan, as Klubnik noted, was little more than a Day 1 installation. If anything, the emergence of freshman Bryant Wesco is cause for optimism for a receiving corps that should be much improved. — Hale


Overreaction: Nothing can stop the Wildcats offense.

The Wildcats will be able to run on anybody in the country, and there’s nothing anyone can do to stop them. There was already hype because of what fans expect quarterback Avery Johnson to bring to the table, which has only grown with time.

Running back DJ Giddens is facing big expectations after a breakout 2023, in which he rushed for 1,226 yards and 10 touchdowns (along with 323 receiving yards and three TDs), and former Colorado running back Dylan Edwards is a welcomed addition from the transfer portal. — Lyles


Overreaction: Tyler Shough will be a star.

A seventh-year senior, Shough has had a hard time staying healthy throughout his career. But in the spring game, he showed exactly why Jeff Brohm went after him in the transfer portal. Shough played nearly flawless, going 8-of-12 for 177 yards and two touchdowns — that included one score on the first play from scrimmage, a beautiful 80-yard pass to Chris Bell that immediately showed Shough’s arm strength. His predecessor, Jack Plummer, had experience running the Brohm offense, but if there was one thing the Cards did not do it was stretch the field consistently enough.

Shough has the arm talent to do that, and Bell looks poised to be WR1. Louisville wanted to add more receivers through the portal, but even without that, Shough has made major strides over a short period of time in getting acclimated to a new offense and making plays happen. — Adelson


Overreaction: Jalon Daniels is a Heisman Trophy candidate.

Because of his injury history the past two seasons, I think this is a lofty expectation of him, though it’s also entirely possible if he stays healthy. Daniels had a breakout 2022 season, in which he probably would have at least received an invite to New York had he not gotten injured. He threw for over 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He also had 425 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in nine games.

Daniels played in just three games last season but has all the weapons to succeed in 2024. Here’s hoping one of the most exciting players in the nation can stay healthy. — Lyles


Overreaction: New quarterback Brock Vandagriff is a sleeper Heisman Trophy candidate.

Vandagriff, who transferred to Kentucky from Georgia, is going to be an interesting case study this season. Was he simply blocked by Stetson Bennett and Carson Beck at Georgia? Or was he not good enough to lead an SEC offense? We’re about to find out at Kentucky, where the Wildcats have turned over their offense to the former four-star recruit.

Vandagriff might not have the pocket presence of former starter Devin Leary, but he’s going to be a lot more mobile than his predecessor. It’s hard to take too much from Kentucky’s spring game — nine defensive linemen were out with injuries — but it was evident that quarterback draws will become a staple of the offense. Vandagriff threw two touchdowns and limited his incompletions. So far, so good. — Schlabach


Overreaction: Is Miami ba… ?

OK we won’t finish the sentence, but expectations are building in Miami (again) after a spring game in which transfer quarterback Cam Ward threw for over 300 yards and looked like he will put himself in contention for preseason ACC Player of the Year. Ward has dazzled at previous stops at Washington State and Incarnate Word, but if he is able to have another 3,000-yard season and show off at Miami — there will be an opportunity to deliver big-time results in Year 3 for Mario Cristobal.

Beyond Ward, Miami made some major additions through the portal after the spring game, signing running back Damien Martinez and receiver Sam Brown to go with a veteran receiver group. Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George combined for nearly 2,000 yards a year ago. The offensive line returns a veteran group, too, and Ward specifically pointed to that unit as one of the biggest selling points in choosing Miami. The Hurricanes open at Florida in a game that will no doubt set the tone for its season. — Adelson


Overreaction: The Aggies lost too much in the portal to win in Mike Elko’s first year.

The Jimbo Fisher blockbuster deal has now gone the way of Blockbuster Video. Aside from the 2020 COVID season, Fisher never lost fewer than four games in his five full seasons, and the Aggies went 12-13 over the past two years.

The Aggies immediately lost some of Fisher’s star recruits to the portal, such as wide receiver Evan Stewart (Oregon) and defensive linemen Walter Nolen (Ole Miss), LT Overton (Alabama) and Fadil Diggs (Syracuse). But Elko embraced the portal and began plugging holes, including adding Big Ten sack leader Nic Scourton of Purdue. There are new faces all over the secondary, and Elko has been working to rebuild the Aggies’ culture and forge a new attitude. There is plenty of talent on hand, and with a schedule that includes the preseason’s toughest matchups in Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU and Texas all at home, Elko will have the opportunity to make a quick turnaround if he has succeeded in finding the right parts and fitting them together. — Wilson

Continue Reading

Sports

Kershaw joins the 3K club! Where does he rank among pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts?

Published

on

By

Kershaw joins the 3K club! Where does he rank among pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts?

The 3,000-strikeout club has grown by one, with Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers whiffing the Chicago White Sox‘s Vinny Capra in the sixth inning Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, becoming the 20th pitcher in baseball history to reach that milestone.

The 3K pitching club doesn’t generate as much hullabaloo as its hitting counterpart, but it is more exclusive: Thirty-three players have reached 3,000 hits.

When you look at the list of pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, and Kershaw’s place on it, a few things jump out.

• None of them pitched at Ebbets Field, at least not in a regular-season game. I frame it like that to illustrate that this level of whiffery is a fairly recent phenomenon. The Dodgers bolted Brooklyn after the 1957 season, and at that point, Walter Johnson was the only member of the 3,000-strikeout club. A career Washington Senator, he never pitched against the Dodgers. Every other 3K member made his big league debut in 1959 or later. Half of them debuted in 1984 or later. Three of them (Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander) are active.

• For now, Kershaw has thrown the fewest career innings of any 3K member, though he’s likely to eventually end up with more frames than Pedro Martinez.

• Kershaw has the highest winning percentage of the 20 (.697) and the best ERA+ (155), though his edges over Martinez (.685 and 154) are razor thin.

• Kershaw tops the list in average game score (61.9) and is tied for second (with Bob Gibson) for quality start percentage (68%), behind only Tom Seaver (70%).

• Kershaw lags behind in bWAR, at least among this group of current, future and should-be Hall of Famers with 77.1, ranking 16th.

So where does Kershaw really rank in the 3K club? I’m glad you asked.

First, what should be obvious from the above bullet points is that the response to the question will vary according to how you choose to answer it. The ranking below reflects not only how I chose to answer the question but how I’d like to see starting pitchers rated in general — even today, in the wildly different context from the days of Walter Johnson.

1. Roger Clemens

FWP: 568.8 | Strikeouts: 4,672 (3rd in MLB history)

Game score W-L: 477-230 (.675)

The top three pitchers on the list, including Rocket, match the modern-era top three for all pitchers, not just the 3K guys. (The string is broken by fourth-place Christy Mathewson.) Before running the numbers, I figured Walter Johnson, with his modern-era record of 417 career wins (the old-fashioned variety), would top the list. But Clemens actually started more games (relief appearances don’t factor in) and had a better game score win percentage.


2. Randy Johnson

FWP: 532.9 | Strikeouts: 4,875 (2nd)

Game score W-L: 421-182 (.698)

Since we’re lopping off pre-1901 performances, the method does Cy Young dirty. Only two pitchers — Young (511 wins) and Walter Johnson got to 400 career wins by the traditional method. By the game score method, the club grows to nine, including a bunch of players many of us actually got to see play. The Big Unit is one of the new 400-game winners, and of the nine, his game score winning percentage is the highest. The only thing keeping Johnson from No. 1 on this list is that he logged 104 fewer career starts than Clemens.


3. Walter Johnson

FWP: 494.7 | Strikeouts: 3,509 (9th)

Game score W-L: 437-229 (.656)

Don’t weep for the Big Train — even this revamping of his century-old performance record and the fixation on strikeouts can’t dim his greatness. That fact we mentioned in the introduction — that every 3K member except Walter Johnson debuted in 1959 or later — tells you a lot about just how much he was a man out of his time. Johnson retired after the 1927 season and surpassed 3,000 strikeouts by whiffing Cleveland’s Stan Coveleski on July 22, 1923. It was nearly 51 years before Gibson became 3K member No. 2 on July 17, 1974.


4. Greg Maddux

FWP: 443.3 | Strikeouts: 3,371 (12th)

Game score W-L: 453-287 (.612)

There is a stark contrast between pitcher No. 4 and pitcher No. 5 on this ranking. The wild thing about Maddux ranking above Nolan Ryan in a group selected for strikeouts is that no one thinks of Maddux as a strikeout pitcher. He never led a league in whiffs and topped 200 just once (204 in 1998). He was just an amazingly good pitcher for a really long time.


5. Nolan Ryan

FWP: 443.1 | Strikeouts: 5,714 (1st)

Game score W-L: 467-306 (.604)

Ryan is without a doubt the greatest strikeout pitcher who ever lived, and it’s really hard to imagine someone surpassing him. This is a guy who struck out his first six batters in 1966, when Lyndon Johnson was in the White House, and his last 46 in 1993, when Bill Clinton was there. Ryan was often criticized during his heyday for his win-loss record, but the game score method clears that right up. Ryan’s revised winning percentage (.604) is markedly higher than his actual percentage (.526).


6. Max Scherzer

FWP: 385.7 | Strikeouts: 3,419 (11th)

Game score W-L: 315-145 (.685)

Here’s another club Mad Max is in: .680 or better game score winning percentage, minimum 100 career starts. He’s one of just eight members, along with Kershaw. The list is topped by Smoky Joe Wood, who dominated the AL during the 1910s before hurting his arm and converting into a full-time outfielder. The full list: Wood, Martinez, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Mathewson, Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Scherzer.


7. Justin Verlander

FWP: 385.0 | Strikeouts: 3,471 (10th)

Game score W-L: 349-190 (.647)

Like Scherzer, Verlander is fresh off the injured list. Thus, the two active leaders in our version of FWP have resumed their tight battle for permanent supremacy. Both also resume their quests to become the 10th and 11th pitchers to reach 3,500 strikeouts. Verlander, who hasn’t earned a traditional win in 13 starts, is 4-9 this season by the game score method.


8. Pedro Martinez

FWP: 383.5 | Strikeouts: 3,154 (15th)

Game score W-L: 292-117 (.714)

By so many measures, Martinez is one of the greatest of all time, even if his career volume didn’t reach the same levels as those of the others on the list. His 409 career starts are easily the fewest of the 3K club. But he has the highest game score winning percentage and, likewise, the highest score for FWP per start (.938).


9. Steve Carlton

FWP: 379.8 | Strikeouts: 4,136 (4th)

Game score W-L: 420-289 (.592)

When you think of Lefty, you think of his 1972 season, when he went 27-10 (traditional method) for a Phillies team that went 59-97. What does the game score method think of that season? It hates it. Kidding! No, Carlton, as you’d expect, dominated, going 32-9. So think of it like this: There were 32 times in 1972 that Carlton outpitched his starting counterpart despite the lethargic offense behind him.


10. Tom Seaver

FWP: 371.3 | Strikeouts: 3,640 (6th)

Game score W-L: 391-256 (.604)

Perhaps no other pitcher of his time demonstrated a more lethal combination of dominance and consistency than Seaver. The consistency is his historical differentiator. As mentioned, his career quality start percentage (70%) is tops among this group. Among all pitchers with at least 100 career starts, he ranks fifth. Dead ball era pitchers get a leg up in this stat, so the leader is the fairly anonymous Jeff Tesreau (72%), a standout for John McGraw’s New York Giants during the 1910s. The others ahead of Seaver are a fascinating bunch. One is Babe Ruth, and another is Ernie Shore, who in 1917 relieved Ruth when The Babe was ejected after walking a batter to start a game. Shore replaced him, picked off the batter who walked, then went on to retire all 26 batters he faced. The other ahead of Seaver: Jacob deGrom.


11. Clayton Kershaw

FWP: 370.9 | Strikeouts: 3,000 (20th)

Game score W-L: 301-137 (.687)

And here’s the guest of honor, our reason for doing this ranking exercise. As you can see, Kershaw joined the 300-game-score win club in his last start before Wednesday’s milestone game, becoming the 38th member. In so many measures of dominance, consistency and efficiency, Kershaw ranks as one of the very best pitchers of all time. When you think that he, Verlander and Scherzer are all in the waning years of Hall of Fame careers, you can’t help but wonder who, if anyone, is going to join some of the elite starting pitching statistical clubs in the future.


12. Don Sutton

FWP: 370.6 | Strikeouts: 3,574 (7th)

Game score W-L: 437-319 (.578)

For a post-dead ball pitcher, Sutton was a model of durability. He ranks third in career starts (756) and seventh in innings (5,283⅓). During the first 15 seasons of his career, Sutton started 31 or more games 14 times and threw at least 207 innings for the Dodgers in every season.


13. Ferguson Jenkins

FWP: 353.8 | Strikeouts: 3,192 (14th)

Game score W-L: 363-231 (.611)

Jenkins is in the Hall of Fame, so we can’t exactly say he was overlooked. Still, it does feel like he’s a bit underrated on the historical scale. His FWP score ranks 17th among all pitchers, and the game score method gives him a significant win-loss boost. That .611 percentage you see here is a good bit higher than his actual .557 career winning percentage. He just didn’t play for very many good teams and, in fact, never appeared in the postseason. He’s not the only Hall of Famer associated with the Chicago Cubs who suffered that fate.


14. Gaylord Perry

FWP: 335.6 | Strikeouts: 3,534 (8th)

Game score W-L: 398-292 (.577)

Perry, famous for doing, uh, whatever it takes to win a game, famously hung around past his expiration date to get to 300 wins, and he ended up with 314. Poor Perry: If my game score method had been in effect, he’d have quit two wins shy of 400. Would someone have given him a shot at getting there in 1984, when he was 45? One of history’s great what-if questions.


15. Phil Niekro

FWP: 332.5 | Strikeouts: 3,342 (13th)

Game score W-L: 408-308 (.570)

Knucksie won 318 games, and lost 274, the type of career exemplified by his 1979 season, when he went 21-20. We aren’t likely to see anyone again pair a 20-win season with a 20-loss season. His .537 traditional winning percentage improves with the game score method, but he’s still the low man in the 3K club in that column. Niekro joins Ryan and Sutton on the list of those with 300 game score losses. Sutton, at 319, is the leader. The others: Tommy John, Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer. Of course, they were all safely over the 300-game-score win threshold as well.


16. CC Sabathia

FWP: 323.2 | Strikeouts: 3,093 (18th)

Game score W-L: 339-221 (.605)

Sabathia will be inducted into the Hall of Fame next month, and his place in this group only underscores how deserving he is of that honor. Sabathia debuted in 2001, and to reach the 250 traditional-win level (he won 251) in this era is an amazing feat. The only pitcher in that club who debuted later is Verlander, stuck at 262 wins after debuting in 2005. Right now, it’s hard to imagine who, if anyone, will be next. Of course, if we just went with game score wins, that would be different.


17. Bob Gibson

FWP: 321.0 | Strikeouts: 3,117 (16th)

Game score W-L: 305-177 (.633)

Gibson, incidentally, also won 251 games — and also gets enough boost from the game score method to climb over 300. His revised percentage is better than his traditional mark of .591. His average game score ranks third in this group, a reflection of his steady dominance but also of the era in which he pitched. Gibson is tied for eighth in quality start percentage among all pitchers. In 1968, when Gibson owned the baseball world with a 1.12 ERA, he went 22-9 by the traditional method. The game score method: 26-8. You’d think it would be even better, but it was, after all, the Year of the Pitcher.


18. Bert Blyleven

FWP: 320.2 | Strikeouts: 3,701 (5th)

Game score W-L: 391-294 (.571)

It took a prolonged campaign by statheads to raise awareness about Blyleven’s greatness and aid his eventual Cooperstown induction. He finished with 287 traditional wins, short of the historical benchmark. Here he would fall short of the 400-win benchmark, but, nevertheless, he is tied with John and Seaver for 11th on the game score wins list. His actual winning percentage was .534.


19. Curt Schilling

FWP: 307.1 | Strikeouts: 3,116 (17th)

Game score W-L: 281-155 (.644)

There are 31 pitchers who have broken the 300 FWP level, and it’s hard for me to imagine how anyone in that group could be left out of Cooperstown. You can sort this out for yourself in terms of baseball and not baseball reasons for this, but the group not there is Clemens, Schilling, John and Andy Pettitte, plus the greats (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer) who are still active.


20. John Smoltz

FWP: 273.8 | Strikeouts: 3,084 (19th)

Game score W-L: 290-191 (.603)

Smoltz won 213 games the traditional way, and he falls just short of 300 by the revised method. But all of this is about starting pitching, and with Smoltz, that overlooks a lot. After missing the 2000 season because of injury, he returned as a reliever, and for four seasons he was one of the best, logging 154 saves during that time. He’s the only member of the 200-win, 100-save club.

Continue Reading

Sports

Dodgers’ Muncy (knee) helped off, set for MRI

Published

on

By

Dodgers' Muncy (knee) helped off, set for MRI

LOS ANGELES — Clayton Kershaw‘s 3,000th career strikeout was preceded by a scary, dispiriting moment, when Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy injured his left knee and had to be helped off the field Wednesday night.

Muncy is set to undergo an MRI on Thursday, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said initial tests have them feeling “optimistic” and that the “hope” is Muncy only sustained a sprain.

With one out in the sixth inning, Muncy jumped to catch a throw from Dodgers catcher Will Smith, then tagged out Chicago White Sox center fielder Michael A. Taylor on an attempted steal and immediately clutched his left knee, prompting a visit from Roberts and head trainer Thomas Albert.

Muncy wrapped his left arm around Albert and walked toward the third-base dugout, replaced by Enrique Hernandez. His injury, caused by Taylor’s helmet slamming into the side of his left knee on a headfirst slide, was so gruesome that the team’s broadcast opted not to show a replay.

Taylor also exited the game with what initially was diagnosed as a left trap contusion.

The Dodgers went on to win 5-4 on Freddie Freeman‘s walk-off single that scored Shohei Ohtani.

Continue Reading

Sports

Kershaw becomes MLB’s 4th lefty with 3,000 K’s

Published

on

By

Kershaw becomes MLB's 4th lefty with 3,000 K's

LOS ANGELES — His start prolonged, the whiffs remained elusive, and the Dodger Stadium crowd became increasingly concerned that Clayton Kershaw might not reach a hallowed milestone in front of them Wednesday. Finally, with two outs in the sixth inning, on his 100th pitch of the night, it happened — an outside-corner slider to freeze Chicago White Sox third baseman Vinny Capra and make Kershaw the 20th member of the 3,000-strikeout club.

Kershaw came off the mound and waved his cap to a sold-out crowd that had risen in appreciation. His teammates then greeted him on the field, dispersing hugs before a tribute video played on the scoreboard, after which Kershaw spilled out of the dugout to greet the fans once more.

Kershaw, the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ longtime ace, is just the fourth lefty to reach 3,000 strikeouts, joining Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton and CC Sabathia. He is one of just five pitchers to accumulate that many with one team, along with Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton and John Smoltz. The only other active pitchers who reached 3,000 strikeouts are the two who have often been lumped with Kershaw among the greatest pitchers of this era: Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the latter of whom reached the milestone as a member of the Dodgers in September 2021.

Kershaw’s first strikeout accounted for the first out of the third inning — immediately after Austin Slater’s two-run homer gave the White Sox a 3-2 lead. Former Dodger Miguel Vargas fell behind in the count 0-2, becoming the ninth batter to get to two strikes against Kershaw, then swung through a curveball low and away. The next strikeout, No. 2,999 of his career, came on his season-high-tying 92nd pitch of the night, a curveball that landed well in front of home plate and induced a swing-and-miss from Lenyn Sosa to end the fifth inning.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts did not even look at Kershaw as he made his way back into the dugout, a clear sign that Kershaw would not be taken out. The crowd erupted as Kershaw took the mound for the start of the sixth inning. Mike Tauchman grounded out and Michael A. Taylor hit a double, then was caught stealing on a play that prompted Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy to come down hard on his left knee, forcing him to be helped off the field.

The mood suddenly turned somber at Dodger Stadium. Then, four pitches later, came elation.

Kershaw reached 3,000 strikeouts in 2,787⅓ innings, making him the fourth-fastest player to reach the mark, according to research from the Elias Sports Bureau. The only ones who got there with fewer innings were Johnson (2,470⅔), Scherzer (2,516) and Pedro Martinez (2,647⅔).

The Dodgers came back to win 5-4, capping their rally with three runs in the bottom of the ninth.

Before the game, Roberts called the 3,000-strikeout milestone “the last box” of a Hall of Fame career — one whose spot in Cooperstown had already been cemented by three Cy Young Awards, 10 All-Star Games, an MVP, five ERA titles and more than 200 wins.

Kershaw’s 2.51 ERA is the lowest in the Live Ball era (since 1920) among those with at least 1,500 innings, even though Kershaw has nearly doubled that. He was a force early, averaging 200 innings and 218 strikeouts per season from 2010 to 2019. And he was a wonder late, finding ways to continually keep opposing lineups in check with his body aching and his fastball down into the high 80s.

Kershaw went on the injured list at least once every year from 2016 to 2024. A foot injury made him a spectator last October, when the Dodgers claimed their second championship in five years. The following month, Kershaw underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and a ruptured plantar plate in his left big toe, then re-signed with the Dodgers and joined the rotation in mid-May. He allowed five runs in four innings in his debut but went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his next seven starts, stabilizing a shorthanded rotation that remains without Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Tony Gonsolin.

Since the start of 2021, Kershaw has somehow managed to put up the sixth-lowest ERA among those with at least 400 innings.

Continue Reading

Trending