Prospect of ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas soon evaporated

Published

10 months ago

May 7, 2024

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It’s been a whiplash-inducing 36 hours in Washington. Breakthrough or broke in Gaza?

The prospect of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which had seemed possible during the weekend, ebbed away as Sunday turned to Monday. Then a moment, but one which soon evaporated.

So what’s going on?

When President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone late on Monday morning, hope for a deal, being hashed out thousands of miles away in the Qatari capital, Doha, seemed slim.

Instead the focus was on what Mr Netanyahu planned to do with the troops he had ordered to amass in southern Israel just over the Israeli border fence from the Gazan city of Rafah.

Middle East latest: Follow live updates

As Mr Netanyahu and Mr Biden spoke, leaflets were fluttering down over Rafah, telling the more than a million people there to leave, to head north to Israeli-self-declared safe zones.

President Biden has repeatedly told the Israeli leadership America would not support a ground invasion of Rafah without a comprehensive and workable plan for the civilians – a plan that has not been forthcoming.

But over the past six months, we’ve all learnt American influence over its ally Israel has its limits.

Even US military officials have questioned the logic of a massive ground invasion of such a heavily populated area.

They understand the basic military objectives of rooting out the remaining Hamas battalions hiding in Rafah. Yes, those fighters are hiding behind civilians, but shouldn’t that give pause for thought rather than ploughing on regardless?

Analysis: Peace in Gaza looks as distant as ever

Military operation doomed to fail?

The consequences of Israel’s policy of flattening the cities north of Rafah are yet to be calculated.

Beyond the elusive concept of “total victory”, Mr Netanyahu has never explained what his political endgame is or who the political partner in Gaza would be.

By the measure of most students of warfare and history, any military operation which lacks a clear political endgame is doomed to fail and will make a lasting settlement so much harder.

The phone call between Mr Biden and Mr Netanyahu lasted about half an hour and we’re told it was “constructive”.

The president “made clear” his views on the Rafah operation “that could potentially put more than a million innocent people at greater risk”, his spokesperson said.

But the vibes from Israel were that the Rafah operation was looking more likely than not.

Hamas agrees to ceasefire deal

Then, at lunchtime in Washington, news suddenly of a potential breakthrough.

Hamas had issued a statement agreeing to the ceasefire deal.

A big moment it seemed. But what, precisely, were the terms of the deal they had agreed to? Which deal was it? The one Secretary of State Antony Blinken had trumpeted in yet another tour of the region last week? He’d called it “generous”.

It wasn’t clear, and as I write, it’s still not entirely clear.

But in Rafah – they’d got wind of it. The scenes of jubilation were honestly sad to watch. They are so desperate for peace but they’re so likely to be let down.

White House spokesperson unaware of latest bombings

A little later, no word from President Biden, but his spokesperson, John Kirby, was busy treading water. “We’re currently reviewing the response,” was the White House line.

Mr Kirby was then asked if he was aware bombs were being dropped on Rafah as he spoke. Was that not a clear indication that Mr Netanyahu was rejecting whatever Hamas had agreed to?

He was not aware of the latest bombings, he said.

Then, in an optically terrible moment, as the White House spokesman was saying (again) that President Biden was uneasy, at best, about something Israel was planning, Israel went right ahead and did it anyway.

An IDF statement was published which said: “The IDF is currently conducting targeted strikes against Hamas terror targets in eastern Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Details to follow.”

The statement confirmed what our local teams on the ground were seeing and hearing with their eyes and ears.

Israel to send team to Egypt for ceasefire talks

My social media feeds are again full of the sort of images which we could never publish on taste grounds but which we have seen so many times during the course of this war.

Then a statement from Mr Netanyahu’s office – the war cabinet had “unanimously decided Israel will continue its operation in Rafah, in order to apply military pressure on Hamas so as to advance the release of our hostages and achieve the other objectives of the war”.

It added that a team would be sent to Egypt to “maximise the possibility of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel”.

Jordan could be key to ceasefire

Rafah is part of Mr Netanyahu’s negotiating strategy of course.

President Biden happened to be having lunch with King Abdullah of Jordan at the White House as news of the Hamas agreement came through.

In a conflict where we look hard for honest brokers to decipher what’s actually going on, perhaps Jordan is close?

It’s a key Arab nation, made up of so many exiled Palestinians, but a diplomatic partner to Israel and a key ally of America.

Netanyahu ‘jeopardising the deal by bombing Rafah’

After the lunch there was no comment from Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi when I asked him if a deal was really possible.

Then, a tweet from him: “Tremendous effort has been made to produce an exchange deal that’ll release hostages and realise a ceasefire. Hamas has put out an offer. If Netanyahu genuinely wants a deal, he will negotiate the offer in earnest. Instead, he is jeopardising the deal by bombing Rafah.”

The opposing view is that Hamas has laid a trap, subtly shifting the terms of the deal allowing the world to think it’s Israel who has rejected it.

There is one indisputable trap: Gaza. A miserable cycle of human suffering in a locked-off strip of land.

World

Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal – as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine

Published

15 hours ago

March 11, 2025

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Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal - as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to accept a ceasefire deal – as the US says it has immediately resumed intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine.

In a post on Telegram after US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia, Mr Zelenskyy said “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals” – and that Kyiv “accepts” the US proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire with Russia.

Ukraine war latest: Ball now in Russia’s court, US says

“I want to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” he said.

“Today, in the conversation, the American side proposed to take the first step immediately and try to establish a full ceasefire for 30 days, not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.

“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take this step.”

‘Ukraine is ready for peace’

The Ukrainian president then said the US “must convince Russia to do this” and that “if the Russians agree – that’s when the silence will work”.

He added: “An important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support.

“Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it.

“The time has come for the full truth. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, in a joint statement with Kyiv following nine-hour-long talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence-sharing and military aid.

A Ukrainian source told Sky News earlier this month that the US had stopped sharing all intelligence with Kyiv.

‘Ball is now in Russia’s court’

Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, also told reporters that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.

After the positive talks, Mr Rubio said “we’re going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.

“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”

He then said that while no deadline has been set, he hopes a deal can be reached “as soon as possible” and that “this is serious stuff, this is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show”.

“The number one goodwill gesture we could see from the Russians is to see the Ukrainian offer and reciprocate it with a yes,” Mr Rubio added.

National security adviser Mike also said added it is “very clear” that Kyiv shares Donald Trump’s vision for peace and says “they share his determination to end the fighting”.

Over in the US, Mr Trump said that officials will meet with Russia either today or tomorrow and confirmed he would invite Mr Zelenskyy back to the White House.

“We want to get the Ukraine war over with,” the US president said, before saying he hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.

He also told reporters he thinks he will talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week – but warned “it takes two to tango”.

Last month, Mr Trump accused Mr Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War Three” in an Oval Office meeting.

US vice president JD Vance told the Ukrainian president “you should be thanking” Mr Trump “for trying to bring an end to this conflict,” sparking a tense 10-minute back-and-forth.

A press conference with the two leaders and the signing of an agreement was then cancelled.

World

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia ahead of US-Ukraine meeting – as Marco Rubio says Kyiv should be ‘prepared to do difficult things’

Published

1 day ago

March 11, 2025

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia ahead of US-Ukraine meeting - as Marco Rubio says Kyiv should be 'prepared to do difficult things'

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Saudi Arabia ahead of his team having talks with America’s top diplomat on Tuesday.

Mr Zelenskyy will not be at the meeting with US secretary of state Marco Rubio, but Mr Zelenskyy’s team will try to improve relations following his disastrous 28 February visit to Washington, which descended into an Oval Office argument with President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance.

Follow latest updates on Ukraine and Trump

Mr Zelenskyy is due to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later on Monday, after the end of the daily fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio is also in Jeddah. He is not due to meet Mr Zelenskyy – but he held talks with Prince Mohammed to discuss Yemen and threats to ships from Houthis, Syria, and the reconstruction of Gaza.

During talks on Tuesday the Ukrainian team will try to convince the US to restore military aid and intelligence that had helped Kyiv since Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Speaking to reporters while travelling to Jeddah, Mr Rubio said if Ukraine and the US reach an understanding acceptable to Mr Trump, that could accelerate his administration’s push to peace talks.

“What we want to know is, are they interested [in] entering some sort of peace conversation and general outlines of the kinds of things they could consider, recognising that it has been a costly and bloody war for the Ukrainians,” Mr Rubio said.

“They have suffered greatly and their people have suffered greatly. And it’s hard in the aftermath of something like that to even talk about concessions, but that’s the only way this is going to end and prevent more suffering.”

He said: “I’m not going to set any conditions on what they have to or need to do. I think we want to listen to see how far they’re willing to go and then compare that to what the Russians want and see how far apart we truly are.”

He added: “The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things to end this conflict.”

Meanwhile, British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Mr Trump on Monday ahead of the US-Ukraine meeting.

A Downing Street readout of the call said that Sir Keir told the president that “UK officials had been speaking to Ukraine officials over the weekend and they remain committed to a lasting peace”.

“The prime minister said he hoped there would be a positive outcome to the talks that would enable US aid and intelligence sharing to be restarted,” the statement said.

“The two leaders also spoke about the economic deal they had discussed at the White House and the prime minister welcomed the detailed conversations that had already happened to move this forward. Both leaders agreed to stay in touch.”

The European Union agreed last week to boost the continent’s defences and free up hundreds of billions of euros for security in response to the Trump administration’s shift in policy towards Ukraine.

A US intelligence official said a pause on sharing US intelligence that can be used for offensive purposes by Ukrainian forces remains in effect.

The official suggested that progress could be made towards reinstating intelligence sharing with Ukraine during the Saudi talks.

World

Syria’s government signs breakthrough deal with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces

Published

1 day ago

March 11, 2025

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Syria's government signs breakthrough deal with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces

Syria’s interim government has signed a deal with the Kurdish-led authority that controls the country’s oil-rich northeast.

The agreement – which includes a ceasefire and the merging of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) there into the Syrian army – will bring most of the nation under the control of the government.

The government is currently led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which helped to topple president Bashar al Assad in December.

Recent clashes have seen more than 1,000 people killed amid violence between government supporters and those thought to be loyal to the ousted leader.

On Monday, the deal was signed by interim president Ahmad al Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the US-backed SDF.

The deal – to be implemented by the end of the year – would bring all border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, airports and oil fields in the northeast under the central government’s control.

Prisons, where about 9,000 suspected members of the Islamic State group are being held, are also expected to come under government control.

Syria’s Kurds will gain their “constitutional rights” including using and teaching their language, which were banned for decades under Mr Assad.

Hundreds of thousands of Kurds who were displaced during Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war will return to their homes.

The deal will also allow all Syrians to be part of the political process, no matter their religion or ethnicity.

Syria’s new rulers are struggling to exert their authority across the country and reach political settlements with other minority communities, notably the Druze in southern Syria.

Earlier in the day, the government announced the end of the military operation against insurgents loyal to Mr Assad and his family in the worst fighting since the end of the civil war.

The defence ministry’s announcement came after a surprise attack by gunmen from the Alawite community on a police patrol near the port city of Latakia on Thursday spiralled into widespread clashes across Syria’s coastal region.

The Assad family are Alawites.

Defence ministry spokesperson Colonel Abdel-Ghani said security forces will continue searching for sleeper cells and remnants of the insurgency of former government loyalists.

Though the government’s counter-offensive was able to mostly contain the insurgency, footage surfaced of what appeared to be retaliatory attacks targeting the broader minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shia Islam whose adherents live mainly in the western coastal region.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitoring group, said 1,130 people were killed in the clashes, including 830 civilians.

The interim president said the retaliatory attacks against Alawite civilians and mistreatment of prisoners were isolated incidents, and vowed to crack down on the perpetrators as he formed a committee to investigate.