It’s been a whiplash-inducing 36 hours in Washington. Breakthrough or broke in Gaza?
The prospect of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which had seemed possible during the weekend, ebbed away as Sunday turned to Monday. Then a moment, but one which soon evaporated.
So what’s going on?
When President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone late on Monday morning, hope for a deal, being hashed out thousands of miles away in the Qatari capital, Doha, seemed slim.
Instead the focus was on what Mr Netanyahu planned to do with the troops he had ordered to amass in southern Israel just over the Israeli border fence from the Gazan city of Rafah.
As Mr Netanyahu and Mr Biden spoke, leaflets were fluttering down over Rafah, telling the more than a million people there to leave, to head north to Israeli-self-declared safe zones.
President Biden has repeatedly told the Israeli leadership America would not support a ground invasion of Rafah without a comprehensive and workable plan for the civilians – a plan that has not been forthcoming.
But over the past six months, we’ve all learnt American influence over its ally Israel has its limits.
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Even US military officials have questioned the logic of a massive ground invasion of such a heavily populated area.
They understand the basic military objectives of rooting out the remaining Hamas battalions hiding in Rafah. Yes, those fighters are hiding behind civilians, but shouldn’t that give pause for thought rather than ploughing on regardless?
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Displaced people react to IDF’s evacuation warning
Military operation doomed to fail?
The consequences of Israel’s policy of flattening the cities north of Rafah are yet to be calculated.
Beyond the elusive concept of “total victory”, Mr Netanyahu has never explained what his political endgame is or who the political partner in Gaza would be.
By the measure of most students of warfare and history, any military operation which lacks a clear political endgame is doomed to fail and will make a lasting settlement so much harder.
The phone call between Mr Biden and Mr Netanyahu lasted about half an hour and we’re told it was “constructive”.
The president “made clear” his views on the Rafah operation “that could potentially put more than a million innocent people at greater risk”, his spokesperson said.
But the vibes from Israel were that the Rafah operation was looking more likely than not.
Hamas agrees to ceasefire deal
Then, at lunchtime in Washington, news suddenly of a potential breakthrough.
Hamas had issued a statement agreeing to the ceasefire deal.
A big moment it seemed. But what, precisely, were the terms of the deal they had agreed to? Which deal was it? The one Secretary of State Antony Blinken had trumpeted in yet another tour of the region last week? He’d called it “generous”.
It wasn’t clear, and as I write, it’s still not entirely clear.
But in Rafah – they’d got wind of it. The scenes of jubilation were honestly sad to watch. They are so desperate for peace but they’re so likely to be let down.
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‘There is not a deal, there is no acceptance’
White House spokesperson unaware of latest bombings
A little later, no word from President Biden, but his spokesperson, John Kirby, was busy treading water. “We’re currently reviewing the response,” was the White House line.
Mr Kirby was then asked if he was aware bombs were being dropped on Rafah as he spoke. Was that not a clear indication that Mr Netanyahu was rejecting whatever Hamas had agreed to?
He was not aware of the latest bombings, he said.
Then, in an optically terrible moment, as the White House spokesman was saying (again) that President Biden was uneasy, at best, about something Israel was planning, Israel went right ahead and did it anyway.
An IDF statement was published which said: “The IDF is currently conducting targeted strikes against Hamas terror targets in eastern Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Details to follow.”
The statement confirmed what our local teams on the ground were seeing and hearing with their eyes and ears.
Israel to send team to Egypt for ceasefire talks
My social media feeds are again full of the sort of images which we could never publish on taste grounds but which we have seen so many times during the course of this war.
Then a statement from Mr Netanyahu’s office – the war cabinet had “unanimously decided Israel will continue its operation in Rafah, in order to apply military pressure on Hamas so as to advance the release of our hostages and achieve the other objectives of the war”.
It added that a team would be sent to Egypt to “maximise the possibility of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel”.
Jordan could be key to ceasefire
Rafah is part of Mr Netanyahu’s negotiating strategy of course.
President Biden happened to be having lunch with King Abdullah of Jordan at the White House as news of the Hamas agreement came through.
In a conflict where we look hard for honest brokers to decipher what’s actually going on, perhaps Jordan is close?
It’s a key Arab nation, made up of so many exiled Palestinians, but a diplomatic partner to Israel and a key ally of America.
Netanyahu ‘jeopardising the deal by bombing Rafah’
After the lunch there was no comment from Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi when I asked him if a deal was really possible.
Then, a tweet from him: “Tremendous effort has been made to produce an exchange deal that’ll release hostages and realise a ceasefire. Hamas has put out an offer. If Netanyahu genuinely wants a deal, he will negotiate the offer in earnest. Instead, he is jeopardising the deal by bombing Rafah.”
The opposing view is that Hamas has laid a trap, subtly shifting the terms of the deal allowing the world to think it’s Israel who has rejected it.
There is one indisputable trap: Gaza. A miserable cycle of human suffering in a locked-off strip of land.
Representatives of dozens of climate vulnerable islands and African nations have stormed out of high-stakes negotiations over a climate funding goal.
Patience is wearing thin and negotiations have boiled over at the COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan, which were due to finish yesterday but are now well into overtime.
After two weeks of talks, the more than 190 countries gathered in the capital Baku are still trying to agree a new financial settlement to channel money to poorer countries to both curb and adapt to climate change.
Talks have now run well into overtime at COP29, but a deal now feels much more precarious.
The least developed countries like Mozambique and low-lying island nations like Samoa say their calls for a portion of the fund to be allocated to them have been ignored.
Samoa’s minister of natural resources and environment Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster is one of the representatives who walked out.
“We are here to negotiate but we have walked out… at the moment we don’t feel we are being heard in there,” he said on behalf of more than 40 small island and developing states, whose shorelines are being lost to rising sea levels.
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Shortly after he made a veiled threat of leaving COP29 altogether, saying: “We want nothing more than to continue to engage, but the process must be INCLUSIVE.
“If this cannot be the case, it becomes very difficult for us to continue our involvement here at COP29.”
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Evans Njewa, who chairs a group of more than 40 least developed countries, said the current deal is “unacceptable for us. We need to speak to other developing countries and decide what to do.”
The last official draft on Friday pledged $250bn a year annually by 2035.
This is more than double the previous goal of $100bn set 15 years ago, but nowhere near the annual $1.3trn that experts say is needed.
Sky News understands some developed countries like the UK were this morning willing to bump up the goal to $300bn.
Developing countries are angry not just about the finance negotiations, but also on how to make progress on a pledge from last year to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
A group of oil and producing countries, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, have tried to dilute that language, while the UK and island state are among those that have fought to keep it in.
Mr Schuster said all things being negotiated contain a “deplorable lack of substance”.
He added: “We need to see progress and follow up on the transition away from fossil fuels that we agreed last year. We have been asked to forget all about that at this COP, as though we are not in a critical decade and as though the 1.5C limit is not in peril.”
“We need to be shown the regard which our dire circumstances necessitate.”
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
At least 11 people have been killed and 63 injured in an Israeli strike on central Beirut, Lebanese authorities have said.
Lebanon‘s health ministry said the death toll could rise as emergency workers dug through the rubble looking for survivors. DNA tests are being used to identify the victims, the ministry added.
State-run National News Agency (NNA) said the attack “completely destroyed” an eight-storey residential building in the Basta neighbourhood early on Saturday.
Footage broadcast by Lebanon’s Al Jadeed station also showed at least one destroyed building and several others badly damaged around it.
The Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack – the fourth targeting the centre this week.
At least four bombs were dropped in the attack, security sources told Reuters news agency.
The blasts happened at about 4am (2am UK time).
A seperate drone strike in the southern port cuty of Tyre this morning killed one person and injured another, according to the NNA.
The blasts came after a day of bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs and Tyre. The Israeli military had issued evacuation notices prior to those strikes.
Israel has killed several Hezbollah leaders in air strikes on the capital’s southern suburbs.
Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.
US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the war in Gaza.
Mr Hochstein indicated progress had been made after meetings in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, before going to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Israel Katz.
According to the Lebanese health ministry, Israel has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon and wounded more than 15,000.
It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.
President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will ramp up the production of a new, hypersonic ballistic missile.
In a nationally-televised speech, Mr Putin said the intermediate-range Oreshnik missile was used in an attack on Ukrainian city Dnipro in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of US and British missiles capable of striking deeper into Russian territory.
Referring to the Oreshnik, the Russian president said: “No one in the world has such weapons.
“Sooner or later other leading countries will also get them. We are aware that they are under development.”
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He added: “We have this system now. And this is important.”
Detailing the missile’s alleged capabilities, Mr Putin claimed it is so powerful that using several fitted with conventional warheads in one attack could be as devastating as a strike with nuclear weapons.
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General Sergei Karakayev, head of Russia’s strategic missile forces, said the Oreshnik could reach targets across Europe and be fitted with either nuclear or conventional warheads – while Mr Putin alleged Western air defence systems will not be able to stop the missiles.
Mr Putin said of the Oreshnik: “There is no countermeasure to such a missile, no means of intercepting it, in the world today. And I will emphasise once again that we will continue testing this newest system. It is necessary to establish serial production.”
Testing the Oreshnik will happen “in combat, depending on the situation and the character of security threats created for Russia“, the president added, stating there is “a stockpile of such systems ready for use”.
NATO and Ukraine are expected to hold emergency talks on Tuesday.
Meanwhile Ukraine’s parliament cancelled a session as security was tightened following the strike on Dnipro, a central city with a population of around one million. No fatalities were reported.
EU leaders condemn Russia’s ‘heinous attacks’
Numerous EU leaders have addressed Russia’s escalation of the conflict with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk saying the war is “entering a decisive phase [and] taking on very dramatic dimensions”.
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Russia’s new missile – what does it mean?
Speaking in Kyiv, Czech foreign minister Jan Lipavsky called Moscow’s strike an “escalatory step and an attempt of the Russian dictator to scare the population of Ukraine and to scare the population of Europe”.
At a news conference, Mr Lipavsky gave his full support for delivering the additional air defence systems needed to protect Ukrainian civilians from the “heinous attacks”.