When realignment leaves a school behind: 10 teams and how they fared
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Over the first quarter of the 21st century, Washington State and Oregon State combined for five AP top-10 finishes and shares of two conference titles — modest totals, sure, but superior to those of Arizona, Arizona State, Cal and Colorado combined. Over the past six seasons, Wazzu’s average SP+ rating ranked fifth in the Pac-12, Oregon State’s seventh. They have been solid mid-tier, power-conference programs in recent times, and their highs have been higher than those of many of their peers.
None of this matters, of course. In last summer’s depressing conference realignment free-for-all, the Pac-12’s leaders failed to come up with a sufficient television deal, and, with furrowed brows and great displays of consternation, eight programs made moves they said they preferred not to make: Oregon and Washington followed USC and UCLA to the Big Ten with diminished media rights shares; Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah left for the Big 12; and Cal and Stanford left for a conference with “Atlantic” in its title (ACC).
Meanwhile, the programs in faraway Corvallis, Oregon, and Pullman, Washington, were left without a home. OSU and Wazzu have maintained the rights to the Pac-12 brand while forming short-term scheduling coalitions with the Mountain West (in football) and West Coast Conference (in other sports). But the Pac-12 as we knew it no longer exists, there is no longer a power conference based in the Pacific time zone, and Oregon State and Washington State have been, for all intents and purposes, left behind.
Following all of these demoralizing developments, both programs began 2023 with a point to prove. Washington State beat two ranked teams (Wisconsin and Oregon State) and began October unbeaten and 13th in the AP poll. And despite the loss to the Cougars, Oregon State spent the entire regular season ranked and rose as high as 10th heading into the back half of November. But Wazzu lost seven of its final eight games to finish 5-7, and after an 8-2 start, Oregon State first suffered a narrow loss to unbeaten Washington, then lost to Oregon and Notre Dame by a combined 71-15.
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith left for the Big Ten’s Michigan State and took some assistants with him, and in addition lost three NFL draftees. The Beavers then proceeded to lose starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State), QB-of-the-future Aidan Chiles (Michigan State), star running back Damien Martinez (Miami), No. 1 receiver Silas Bolden (Texas), tight end Jack Velling (Michigan State), all-conference guard Tanner Miller (Michigan State), linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (USC), rush end Sione Lolohea (Florida State), safety Akili Arnold (USC) and corner Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) to schools in power-conference programs. Wazzu’s losses were less extensive following the team’s late collapse, but quarterback Cam Ward (Miami), receiver Josh Kelly (Texas Tech) and cornerback Javan Robinson (Arizona State) departed for power-conference programs.
What has happened to these programs is just impossibly cruel and demoralizing. But if there’s any reassurance whatsoever to be found, it’s that these schools are not alone. Other programs have been left behind before, and those that kept their acts together and figured out ways to continue fielding strong teams were eventually rewarded. (Others, not so much.) Here are the stories of 10 postwar programs that lost their relative power-conference status and what happened next.
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Raiding the Pacific Coast | SWC demise
Big East Frankenstein | What’s ahead for Pac-2
Culling of the Pacific Coast Conference
The Pacific Coast Conference — which became the AAWU, which became the Pac-8, which became the Pac-10, which became the Pac-12 — was a pretty dramatic place. At the end of the 1940s, it consisted of Cal, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State, but the loftier programs in that bunch rarely deigned to play the two lowliest members.
In its final 10 seasons in the league before officially getting the boot in 1950, Montana played 31 games against PCC foes: 10 against Idaho (four home, six away), five against Washington State (one home, four away), four against Washington (all away), three against Oregon State (one home, two away) and nine against the other five members (all away). Throughout the 1950s, Idaho basically played home-and-homes with Oregon, Oregon State and Wazzu and got occasional road games with Washington. Conferences were loose affiliations in those days, and none of the California schools wanted an affiliation with the Grizzlies or Vandals if it meant acknowledging them in any way.
In 1959, following mudslinging and accusations of slush-fund activities at a number of schools — Washington, UCLA, USC, Cal (though Cal’s was more “fake work program” than “slush fund,” if we’re picking nits) — the PCC fell apart. The most ambitious schools of the bunch (basically the ones accused of the rule-breaking, plus Stanford) began angling to create a national “Airplane Conference” with eastern independents such as Notre Dame, Penn State, Pitt, Syracuse and the service academies. (In a way, in finally ditching Wazzu, Washington accomplished what it has been trying to accomplish since the 1950s.) The Airplane Conference concept eventually fell apart, and Oregon, Oregon State and Wazzu were eventually allowed back in to the party. Idaho very predictably was not.
The first two members of the Left Behind club didn’t see their lives change all that much because, though Idaho had some sprightly moments, neither played much like a power program anyway.
Last 10 years before demotion: 4.5 average wins, 18.7% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 2.3 average wins, 5.6% average SP+ percentile rating
Montana joined the Skyline Conference — made up primarily of future Mountain West teams — for most of the 1950s and, finding it difficult to compete there, too, helped form the lower-division Big Sky Conference in 1963. Things have worked out pretty well for the Grizzlies there: They’ve won or shared 19 Big Sky titles, plus FCS national titles in 1995 and 2001.
Last 10 years before demotion: 3.3 average wins, 26.9% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 3.4 average wins, 20.3% average SP+ percentile rating
Idaho held on to a bit more ambition than Montana, for better or worse. The Vandals were also founding Big Sky members and participated there in other sports, but after getting the PCC boot they remained at college football’s top level as an independent until 1974.
After some success at the FCS level, they joined ambitious Boise State in jumping back up to the FBS in the 1990s. Over 22 seasons, they bowled three times and bounced from the Big West to the Sun Belt to the WAC and back to the Sun Belt. But they weren’t good enough for the Mountain West and, without a natural home, officially dropped back down to the FCS in 2018. They’ve made the playoffs there the past two years.
Demise of the Southwest Conference
The dawn of the superconference brought quite a bit of expansion. The Big Ten added Penn State in 1993; the SEC attempted to add Arkansas, Texas and Texas A&M before settling for just the Hogs and South Carolina in 1992; and the Pac-10 weighed expansion into intriguing TV markets such as Denver (Colorado, Colorado State, Air Force), Dallas (SMU, TCU) and Houston (Houston, Rice) before bailing on the idea.
Eventually, the Big 12 formed from the members of the Big Eight and half the scandal-plagued SWC. With the Pac-10 choosing against expansion, that left the other half of the SWC on the outside looking in. Over the SWC’s final five seasons, the abandoned half — Houston, Rice, SMU and TCU — had gone a combined 71-144-6 with one bowl appearance among those schools. NCAA sanctions had crushed Houston and SMU in particular, and they had all chosen a bad time to not have their respective acts together.
It was a long journey back, but with SMU joining the ACC in 2024, three of the SWC’s four left-behind programs are now back on power-conference rosters. (Yes, we’re still calling the ACC and Big 12 power conferences even if the Big Ten and SEC have formed a big two of sorts.)
Last 10 years before demotion: 4.8 average wins, 33.8% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 7.3 average wins, 48.9% average SP+ percentile rating
After a combination of NCAA sanctions and general ineptitude had rendered TCU an afterthought of a football program — the Horned Frogs finished above .500 just twice in the 22 seasons from 1972 to 1993 — it was beginning to show signs of life under Pat Sullivan when the SWC fell apart. That quickly ceased, however: The Horned Frogs went 5-17 in their first two seasons in the expanded WAC, and Sullivan was replaced by Dennis Franchione.
Under first Franchione and then Gary Patterson, however, TCU turned itself around. It also had no qualms in jumping from opportunity to opportunity. In the WAC, Conference USA and Mountain West, the Frogs won double-digit games nine times from 2000 to 2011, peaking with a 36-3 run, three top-10 finishes and a Rose Bowl win from 2008 to 2010. That, plus their residence in the Dallas-Fort Worth market, made them obvious candidates for Big 12 membership when the conference looked to replenish recent realignment losses in 2012. They’ve enjoyed four more top-10 finishes over the past 10 years. This is the model left-behind program.
Last 10 years before demotion: 4.6 average wins, 46.5% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 4.4 average wins, 25.0% average SP+ percentile rating
It took Houston a bit longer to get its act together. The Cougars were indeed waylaid by NCAA sanctions and had won just four games in the past three seasons when they became founding members of Conference USA in 1996. They averaged only four wins per season before hiring Art Briles in 2003. Briles and successor Kevin Sumlin raised the profile of the program with pure offensive firepower, and in 2011 Houston enjoyed its first ranked finish in 21 years.
The Cougars joined the remnants of the Big East in the freshly named American Athletic Conference in 2013, and under Tom Herman in 2015 they went 13-1 and beat Florida State in a New Year’s Six bowl. It has been an up-and-down ride since, as neither Major Applewhite nor Dana Holgorsen were able to generate any post-Herman consistency, but a combination of obvious upside and the Houston market got them into the Big 12 in 2023.
Last 10 years before demotion: 2.6 average wins, 17.3% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 3.8 average wins, 18.3% average SP+ percentile rating
At least Houston didn’t get the death penalty. After nearly winning the national title in 1981 at the peak of the Pony Excess days, SMU slowly slipped under the steady drip of sanctions, then was forced to cease all football operations in 1987-88 when it refused to, uh, stop cheating.
As it turns out, the death penalty works. SMU returned to play in 1989 and enjoyed just one above-.500 season (a bowl-less 6-5 campaign under Mike Cavan in 1997) over the next 20 years as a member of first the WAC, then Conference USA. June Jones managed to create both an offensive identity and a steady bowl presence in the early 2010s, however, and after falling apart in their first seasons in the AAC, the Mustangs rebounded once more. They enjoyed their first 10-win season in 35 years under Sonny Dykes in 2019, and after Dykes left for rival TCU a couple of years later, Rhett Lashlee led SMU to its first ranked finish in 39 years last fall. This recent success, combined with the Dallas market and a willingness to gamble by foregoing all media rights revenue for a few years, earned them an ACC invitation.
Last 10 years before demotion: 3.7 average wins, 29.5% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 4.8 average wins, 26.8% average SP+ percentile rating
Rice … is a hard job. It was a hard job in the SWC, and it has remained a hard job in Conference USA and, as of 2023, the AAC. The Owls probably miss playing their bigger in-state rivals on a more frequent basis, but they have basically the same program as they did before being left behind, only they average a bit higher win total with easier competition.
Semi-demise of the Big East
As a football entity, the Big East was both a product and victim of the conference realignment era. A basketball powerhouse in the 1980s, it attempted to secure a bright future by bringing in football brands such as Miami and Virginia Tech in the 1990s and found some success. But it was always a Frankenstein of basketball and football schools.
In the 2000s, the conference lost Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC and grabbed whatever it could to survive — DePaul and Marquette on the basketball side, Cincinnati, Louisville (which it would also lose to the ACC) and USF on the football side — and as it prepared to raid the mid-major ranks for more football programs in the early-2010s, the basketball schools decided enough was enough. They formed a new Big East, and the remaining football schools formed the AAC.
The Big East had a power-conference designation when the BCS existed, but when the College Football Playoff came about in 2014, it no longer recognized the AAC as a power. That meant four Big East holdovers — Cincinnati, UConn, USF and Temple — all entered the left-behind zone. (You could technically say the same for the AAC’s four 2013 additions: Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF. But we’ll say they weren’t around long enough to get truly left behind at this time.)
Last 10 years before demotion: 8.0 average wins, 66.9% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 8.6 average wins, 61.2% average SP+ percentile rating
Under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, Cincinnati enjoyed five seasons of double-digit wins and four ranked finishes in the Big East’s final six seasons of football existence. This program deserved to be in a power conference but suddenly wasn’t. But like TCU, it went about proving itself after an initial setback. Luke Fickell led the Bearcats to 44 wins in four seasons from 2018 to 2021. They won back-to-back AAC titles in 2020-21, first reaching a New Year’s Six bowl, then reaching the CFP (where, as I will forever remind people, they fared better against Alabama than Michigan did against Georgia).
When the Big 12 began to look for new programs following Oklahoma’s and Texas’ announced departures, Cincinnati had to be the first program on the list. Granted, it face-planted upon arrival, replacing Wisconsin-bound Fickell with Scott Satterfield and promptly going 3-9. But this is still a program worthy of the power designation it was stripped of for nine years.
Last 10 years before demotion: 6.9 average wins, 61.1% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 3.0 average wins, 10.3% average SP+ percentile rating
After a long football life in the Yankee Conference, UConn grew ambitious enough to attempt FBS life in the early 2000s. The Huskies had a readymade spot in a power conference waiting for them, and they met the moment for a little while, winning either eight or nine games in five of their first seven Big East seasons. But things fell off course when Randy Edsall left for Maryland in 2011, and they were in no way playing like a power-conference program when they lost their power designation.
They left the AAC to return to the Big East in non-football sports, and they’ve been independent since 2020. Life has been mostly hard. Since earning a share of the Big East title — and winning the tiebreakers to earn a Fiesta Bowl bid — in 2010, they’ve suffered 12 straight losing records. They were left behind, but they were already in the process of falling apart when that happened.
Last 10 years before demotion: 6.5 average wins, 62.2% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after demotion: 5.0 average wins, 34.4% average SP+ percentile rating
USF made this “major college football” thing look pretty easy at first. As a startup program under their first coach, Jim Leavitt, the Bulls enjoyed winning seasons in their first four FBS seasons, then joined the Big East in 2005, bowled for six straight years and spent time in the AP top 10 in both 2007 and 2008. But they fell from eight wins to five to three under Leavitt’s replacement, Skip Holtz — like at UConn, things had already fallen apart when South Florida lost its power-conference designation — and their years in the AAC have been a roller coaster: a combined 6-18 in 2013-14, then 21-4 in 2016-17, then 4-29 in 2020-22.
The Bulls were too putrid to earn a look from the Big 12 in the early 2020s, even as it was pilfering conference rival UCF. They could be on their way to another high under Alex Golesh — he’s one of the sport’s more intriguing young coaches — and the Tampa-St. Petersburg market might be intriguing enough to make them candidates for future expansion of a Big 12 or ACC if they can both get and keep their act together. But for now, it seems like the AAC is about the right weight class.
If we don’t count Houston and SMU, Temple might be the only program to ever get left behind twice. The Owls were booted from the Big East in 2005 for general ineptitude — in 14 years of Big East membership, they averaged 2.1 wins and never won more than four games in a season. But after they got their act together in the refuge of the MAC, they were brought back to the Big East in 2012 … just in time for it to become the AAC in 2013.
Last 10 years before first demotion: 2.4 average wins, 22.8% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after first demotion: 4.8 average wins, 26.0% average SP+ percentile rating
Last 10 years before second demotion: 4.3 average wins, 23.6% average SP+ percentile rating
First 10 years after second demotion: 5.8 average wins, 39.1% average SP+ percentile rating
This has always been a pretty hard job — the facilities are crammed into one corner of Temple’s metropolitan campus, and the Owls play off campus at the Philadelphia Eagles’ far-too-cavernous Lincoln Financial Field. When they make a strong hire, like Al Golden (2006-10) or Matt Rhule (2013-16), they can rise pretty high, whether they’re in a power conference or not. But the floor remains pretty low, as they’ve rediscovered of late.
The Pac-2
Every story is unique, and we can’t say we know a lot about what will happen to Oregon State and Washington State based on what happened to Montana in the 1950s or a post-death penalty SMU in the 1990s. But averages might still tell us something.
Average 10 years before second demotion: 4.7 wins, 37.2% SP+ percentile rating
Average 10 years after second demotion: 4.8 wins, 28.7% SP+ percentile rating
Basically, the left-behind programs tend to fall in quality a bit while maintaining familiar win totals (thanks to lesser strengths of schedule). Let’s see what that might mean for Washington State and Oregon State moving forward.
Last 10 years before demotion: 6.6 average wins, 62.1% average SP+ percentile rating
Wazzu has been a higher-upside Temple in recent history, balancing both the capacity for painfully low lows (the Cougs went 5-32 from 2008 to 2010) and solid eight- to 10-win capabilities when things are going well. They have fallen off a hair since Mike Leach left in 2020, but with what amounts to a Mountain West schedule in 2024, they are projected to win around eight games on average based on initial 2024 SP+ projections.
Last 10 years before demotion: 4.6 average wins, 41.9% average SP+ percentile rating
Before beginning a surge under Jonathan Smith in 2021, Oregon State had endured a solid run of struggle, with seven straight losing seasons from 2014 to 2020. Winning 18 games in 2022-23 was great, and the recent success is propping up the Beavers’ SP+ projections despite the extreme personnel losses. They were 44th in the initial February projections, and they’ll probably be in the mid-50s, close to Wazzu, when the May updates are released. With the MWC schedule at hand, that should keep them in the realm of bowl eligibility.
When it comes to future power-conference membership, it’s hard to say anything particularly encouraging at the moment. But as the Beavers face a future in either the Mountain West or a remodeled Pac-12 that strongly resembles the MWC, they can at least take heart in the fact that we have no idea what the future holds in terms of conference alignment and that, even though it’s not really their fault they’re in this position to begin with, if they field successful football teams moving forward — more TCU, less UConn — they could improve their lot a few years down the line.
Aside from a loss Thursday, the Colorado Avalanche keep rolling, and their spot atop the NHL standings is equaled by their position in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings.
Beyond the Avalanche, the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers rose up the rankings this week, while the Anaheim Ducks, New Jersey Devils and Utah Mammoth took a tumble.
The month of December includes many games on the schedule, and for this week’s edition of the Power Rankings, we’ve identified the most intriguing matchup on the docket for each club.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 28. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 81.5%
Dec. 27 at the Golden Knights. Months remain before the Stanley Cup playoff picture crystallizes into its final form. It’s a decent bet, however, that the Avs and Knights will both be skating into late April and beyond, and this contest is as good of a Western Conference finals preview as we may get before the actual thing — or at least until their next game on the schedule on April 11.
Next seven days: @ NYR (Dec. 6), @ PHI (Dec. 7), @ NSH (Dec. 9), vs. FLA (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.2%
Dec. 13 vs. the Panthers. The Stars have won a great many of their games this season; they are second in the NHL standings behind the juggernaut Avs. But one of the games they didn’t win was against the defending Stanley Cup champs. Can they get a W here, in the last time they’ll see them this season until a possible Cup Final?
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Dec. 5), vs. PIT (Dec. 7), @ WPG (Dec. 9), @ MIN (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 65.4%
Dec. 20 at the Lightning. There’s a lot of season left. But it looks these two former Southeast Division rivals will be near the top of their respective divisions — and could square off in the Eastern Conference finals in May.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Dec. 6), vs. SJ (Dec. 7), vs. CBJ (Dec. 9), @ WSH (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 63%
Dec. 9 at/Dec. 28 vs. the Canadiens. There were many strange events during the early 2020s. One of them was the 2020-21 NHL season where four new divisions were created, and the playoffs culminated in a Stanley Cup Final pitting one Atlantic Division team against another. Years have passed since then, and now both the Lightning and Canadiens are fighting for playoff position among their traditional division rivals.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Dec. 6), @ TOR (Dec. 8), @ MTL (Dec. 9), @ NJ (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 62.5%
Dec. 27 at the Jets. Around 450 miles separate these two Central Division rivals, but both will be fighting for similar real estate in the playoff race if the Avs and Stars keep dominating as they have.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Dec. 6), @ SEA (Dec. 8), vs. DAL (Dec. 11)
0:56
Jesper Wallstedt records 4th shutout in 6 games
Arda Öcal breaks down Jesper Wallstedt’s historic accomplishment following Minnesota’s 1-0 victory.
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 64.3%
Dec. 11 vs. the Hurricanes. Although the team matchup here is notable — both the Caps and Canes are near the top of the Metro — this comes down to a historical stat angle for Alex Ovechkin. The team against which Ovi has scored the most goals in his record-breaking career is the Winnipeg Jets (58); No. 2 on that list is Carolina (53). Does he close the gap with a tally (or two, or three) in this contest?
Next seven days: @ ANA (Dec. 5), vs. CBJ (Dec. 7), vs. CAR (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.1%
Dec. 27 at the Kings. With the Ducks back in the contenders’ mix this season, these Battle of SoCal games take on extra meaning. Anaheim won the most recent matchup, 5-4 in a shootout, on Nov. 28.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Dec. 5), vs. CHI (Dec. 7), @ PIT (Dec. 9), @ NYI (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 61.5%
Dec. 23 vs. the Sharks. For the first few years of the Golden Knights’ existence, the Sharks were a bitter rival, including some epic, violent clashes in the postseason. San Jose dropped off a bit, but appears back on the upswing. Will this showdown match the intensity of seasons past?
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 5), @ NYR (Dec. 7), @ NYI (Dec. 9), @ PHI (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 61.1%
Dec. 14 vs. the Canucks. With the trade rumor machine running on overdrive when it comes to Quinn Hughes joining his brothers in New Jersey at some point, this is another chance for the Devils faithful to see the eldest Hughes brother in action with his current team.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Dec. 5), @ BOS (Dec. 6), @ OTT (Dec. 9), vs. TB (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 63.5%
Dec. 13 vs. the Sharks. Penguins fans have been blessed to see Sidney Crosby in 1,378 regular-season games (and 180 in the playoffs). On this night, they’ll see Macklin Celebrini on PPG Paints Arena ice, a player whose game has recently drawn Crosby comparisons.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 7), vs. ANA (Dec. 9), vs. MTL (Dec. 11)
0:42
Sidney Crosby notches goal on the power play
Sidney Crosby notches goal on the power play
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 57.4%
Dec. 29 at the Avalanche. The true test for the 2025-26 Kings will be in how far they progress in the playoffs. But this late-December matchup against the current top team in the West will be a good litmus test.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Dec. 6), @ UTA (Dec. 8), @ SEA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 63.5%
Dec. 13 vs./Dec. 14 at the Hurricanes. The Flyers’ current standings position is a moderate surprise to those who did not peg them as a playoff team. This home-and-home series against the perennial playoff-contending Canes is a chance for Philly to make a statement.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Dec. 7), vs. SJ (Dec. 9), vs. VGK (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 58.9%
Dec. 27 vs. the Rangers. Neither of these teams has what could be called a firm grasp on a playoff spot at this point, but the geographic rivals always bring the heat to these games no matter the standings.
Next seven days: @ TB (Dec. 6), @ FLA (Dec. 7), vs. VGK (Dec. 9), vs. ANA (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 55.6%
Dec. 27 at the Maple Leafs. Have the Senators surpassed the Leafs? Ottawa didn’t have enough to knock Toronto off in the clubs’ first-round playoff series in the spring but sits ahead of its intraprovince rival currently.
Next seven days: vs. STL (Dec. 6), vs. NJ (Dec. 9), @ CBJ (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 59.6%
Dec. 6 at the Maple Leafs. Is there anything better than a Saturday night matchup between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs? The clubs have split their matchups thus far, and their next tilt after this one isn’t until March 10.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Dec. 6), vs. STL (Dec. 7), vs. TB (Dec. 9), @ PIT (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.4%
Dec. 13 at the Blackhawks. These two teams are no longer Norris Division rivals (or even in the same conference), but there’s always something special about a Blackhawks-Red Wings game!
Next seven days: @ SEA (Dec. 6), @ VAN (Dec. 8), @ CGY (Dec. 10), @ EDM (Dec. 11)
0:50
Patrick Kane lights the lamp for Red Wings
Patrick Kane lights the lamp
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 55.2%
Dec. 23 vs. the Canadiens. These two of the Original Six clubs are both in playoff position in the first week of December, which adds some fuel to this rivalry compared to recent seasons when one team was clearly better than the other.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Dec. 6), @ STL (Dec. 9), @ WPG (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 14 at the Penguins. While the Mammoth and Penguins are fighting for postseason positioning, this game is under more of a spotlight for one Utah skater in particular: Logan Cooley, who grew up in the Pittsburgh area and participated in Sidney Crosby’s “Little Penguin” youth hockey program.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Dec. 5), @ CGY (Dec. 6), vs. LA (Dec. 8), vs. FLA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 56%
Dec. 12 at the Mammoth. Utah isn’t technically an expansion team, but this is still correctly described as the NHL’s two newest teams facing off in what also happens to be a superb uniform matchup — and a pivotal contest in the Western wild-card standings as well.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Dec. 6), vs. MIN (Dec. 8), vs. LA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 55.2%
Dec. 23/Dec. 31 at the Capitals. If the Rangers are going to get back in the playoff mix, they’ll need to win head-to-head games against teams currently occupying those spots. This double shot of contests against the Caps is an even better opportunity because both games are on the road.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Dec. 6), vs. VGK (Dec. 7), @ CHI (Dec. 10)
0:39
Artemi Panarin gets his 900th career point
Arda Öcal reports on the big nights from Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad against the Ottawa Senators.
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 55.6%
Dec. 7 at the Ducks. Since it’s not possible for the Blackhawks to play the Sharks and Ducks at the same time, we’ll pick this matchup that will showcase Connor Bedard against fellow young dynamo Leo Carlsson. Bedard & Co. will next see Macklin Celebrini and San Jose on Feb. 2.
Next seven days: @ LA (Dec. 6), @ ANA (Dec. 7), vs. NYR (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 57.4%
Dec. 7 vs. the Capitals. The Caps and Blue Jackets have played some memorable games in recent seasons — including two Columbus victories down the stretch of 2024-25 when the club was fighting for the final wild-card spot. The Caps have won both contests this season — and both were a 5-1 final score — so the Blue Jackets are out for some vengeance in this one.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Dec. 6), @ WSH (Dec. 7), @ CAR (Dec. 9), vs. OTT (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 29 at the Ducks. When it comes to rising teams in the Pacific Division, the Ducks appear to be about a year ahead of the Sharks, so this will be a glimpse into the future for San Jose fans. But it’s also a showdown of two of the league’s most exciting young talents in San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini and Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 5), @ CAR (Dec. 7), @ PHI (Dec. 9), @ TOR (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 51.9%
Dec. 9 vs. the Stars; Dec. 11 vs. the Bruins. At this point, we’d hope that fans in Winnipeg appreciate the fine art of goaltending, given that Connor Hellebuyck — arguably the best American goalie of all time — plays for the Jets. If so, this pair of home games will be a treat, as fellow elite American goalies Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman come to town in the same week.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Dec. 5), @ EDM (Dec. 6), vs. DAL (Dec. 9), vs. BOS (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 53.7%
Dec. 16 vs. the Blackhawks. Three days after Connor McDavid and the Oilers buzz through the Six, another Canadian-born superstar named Connor will grace Scotiabank Arena. So, in a season that hasn’t gone as well as planned for the Leafs, at least Toronto fans will get an extended look at one definite member of their Olympic team (and one possible addition).
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Dec. 6), vs. TB (Dec. 8), vs. SJ (Dec. 11), vs. EDM (Dec. 13)
0:44
Matthew Knies falls to knees, gets up to score great goal for Leafs
Matthew Knies falls to knees, gets up to score great goal for Leafs
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 50%
Dec. 15 at/Dec. 27 vs. the Lightning. The NHL schedule makers provided us with a double shot of the Battle of Florida this month! The action will be electric, as usual — although the teams will probably finish with fewer than the 65 penalties for 312 minutes they amassed in their preseason matchup on Oct. 4.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Dec. 6), vs. NYI (Dec. 7), @ UTA (Dec. 10), @ COL (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 13 at the Maple Leafs. Last season, both of these clubs were firmly in playoff position but would see their seasons end at the hands of the Cup champion Panthers. This season hasn’t gone so well. Which of the two could use this mid-December matchup as a turning point?
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Dec. 6), vs. BUF (Dec. 9), vs. DET (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 48.2%
Dec. 31 at the Stars. The closest that Buffalo has come to a Stanley Cup was in the 1999 Final, which it lost in controversial fashion to the Stars, who just came out with a new uniform paying homage to that title. Will Dallas be sporting those unis on New Year’s Eve?
Next seven days: @ WPG (Dec. 5), @ CGY (Dec. 8), @ EDM (Dec. 9), @ VAN (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 44.6%
Dec. 12 vs. the Blackhawks. Not a ton has gone the Blues’ way this season, but maybe this old-school rivalry matchup against Chicago will serve to get them back on track for a big second half.
Next seven days: @ OTT (Dec. 6), @ MTL (Dec. 7), vs. BOS (Dec. 9), @ NSH (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 42.6%
Dec. 29 at the Kraken. When it comes to regional rivalries, the Canucks-Kraken matchup isn’t on the level of many others around the league … yet. Perhaps this game jump-starts a big run for the Nucks.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Dec. 5), vs. MIN (Dec. 6), vs. DET (Dec. 8), vs. BUF (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 44.4%
Dec. 27 at the Blues. This hasn’t been the greatest season in franchise history. But this game could at least get a bit chippy — it’ll be Nashville’s third against St. Louis in December.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Dec. 6), vs. COL (Dec. 9), vs. STL (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 41.4%
Dec. 23 at/Dec. 27 vs. the Oilers. There isn’t quite as much juice for these Battle of Alberta contests as when these two met in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, but there’s every reason to expect fireworks in this bitter feud.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Dec. 6), vs. BUF (Dec. 8), vs. DET (Dec. 10)
Sports
What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.
What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?
Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.
Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?
Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.
The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.
Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.
Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?
Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).
This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.
Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.
What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.
Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?
Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.
Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.
Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?
Olney: It depends on your definition of ‘big-name.’ Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend and new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.
If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.
Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.
Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?
Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.
Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.
Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?
Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.
Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.
Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.
Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.
Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?
Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.
Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.
What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?
Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.
There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.
Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.
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Alden Gonzalez
Former Los Angeles Angels manager Ron Washington is joining the San Francisco Giants‘ coaching staff, he confirmed Thursday..
Washington, a longtime third-base coach before managerial stints with the Texas Rangers and Angels, will be named infield coach for the Giants.
“We are working out the logistics. I have agreed to join the Giants,” Washington told The Associated Press in a text message Thursday. “I get a chance to continue to make a difference.”
Washington was hired to manage the Angels leading up to the 2024 season but spent a good chunk of 2025 away from the team after undergoing quadruple bypass heart surgery and was told he would not return at season’s end.
Washington, 73, who stated near the end of the season that he was in good health and expressed a desire to continue managing, now will join the staff of rookie manager and longtime Tennessee Volunteers coach Tony Vitello.
Washington, who also managed the Texas Rangers to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011, has long been hailed as one of the best infield instructors in the game, drawing rave reviews from several All-Star-caliber players in his extended time with the Atlanta Braves (2017-23) and then-Oakland Athletics (1996-2006, 2015-16).
In San Francisco, Washington will work primarily with a Gold Glove third baseman in Matt Chapman, a star-caliber shortstop in Willy Adames and Rafael Devers, the slugging third baseman who is still working through his transition to first base.
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