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Big technology companies are consuming as much data as possible to become winners in artificial intelligence — but that’s not necessarily what will define winners, according to the boss of software giant Appian.

Matt Calkins, CEO and co-founder of Appian, said that though internet giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are spending billions on the tech, ensuring success in AI is “not just about money.”

“AI is not a place where money makes more money,” Calkins told CNBC in an interview at its London bureau on Tuesday.

Calkins was referring to the high-profile deals companies like Microsoft and Amazon are agreeing with ambitious and fast-growing foundational AI model makers, like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Microsoft has invested a total of $13 billion in OpenAI, a deal that entails Microsoft getting a stake in OpenAI and the latter adding its GPT language models to the Redmond, Washington-based technology giant’s Azure cloud computing platform.

Microsoft has struck a similar deal with Mistral, taking a 15 million euro ($16 million) stake in the French AI firm.

AI revolution being 'held up a little bit by fear,' Appian CEO says

In OpenAI’s case, Microsoft has a non-voting observer sitting on the firm’s board.

That happened after a shocking series of events last year that saw the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, temporarily ousted, before later returning after hundreds of OpenAI employees threatened a coup to join Altman at Microsoft.

Separately, Amazon has invested a whopping $4 billion into U.S. AI firm Anthropic, which is behind the Claude AI system. Amazon holds a minority stake in Anthropic but no board seat.

Google, too, has committed billions of funding to Anthropic, agreeing last year to invest up to $2 billion.

Scrutiny from UK regulators

British regulators are assessing whether deals agreed by Microsoft and Amazon with foundation AI model startups may constitute effective mergers that could lead to a substantial reduction of competition.

Microsoft denies its deal with OpenAI and Mistral and hiring from Inflection constituted mergers. Amazon says its partnership with Anthropic constitutes a limited corporate investment, not a merger.

This is a market for the clever. The fact that you’ve got enough money to buy, or buy a piece of, Anthropic or Mistral or any of that, that’s impressive. But AI may not be a ‘winner take all’ market.

Matt Calkins

CEO, Appian

For Calkins, whether or not those deals qualify as mergers that threaten competition in AI, there will be room for innovators to thrive.

“If coalitions won the AI race, Google would have won by now,” he said, calling out the U.S. tech giant’s $500 million takeover of British AI lab DeepMind.

Global Music Artist will.i.am: Over-regulating AI will stop innovation

Far from it, Calkins argues — instead, he thinks Google lost out to Microsoft early on when it comes to generative AI, which threatens to upend the fabric of Google’s search business.

It follows a blunder that saw Google’s Gemini text-to-image generator produce inaccuracies in historical pictures that went viral online. Google paused image generation of people to refine the tool. CEO Sundar Pichai called the debacle “unacceptable,” according to an internal memo obtained by CNBC in February.

Google was not immediately available for comment and contacted by CNBC.

“This is a market for the clever,” Calkins said. “The fact that you’ve got enough money to buy, or buy a piece of, Anthropic or Mistral or any of that, that’s impressive. But AI may not be a ‘winner take all’ market.”

“There’s going to be different AI algorithms for different purposes, and they are going to be much more or less valuable, depending on whether and how you’ve loaded your own data into it,” he added.

Calkins said that the only way for AI systems to become truly clever and useful is by being capable of understanding what we want from them for use in our everyday lives.

“The best AI will be the AI you put your data into, not whoever bought the biggest stack,” he said.

Europe has ‘head start’ with regulation

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S&P 500 win streak, Berkshire’s leadership changes, Netflix’s regulatory path and more in Morning Squawk

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S&P 500 win streak, Berkshire's leadership changes, Netflix's regulatory path and more in Morning Squawk

A Wall Street sign is viewed in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

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This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

1. Secret Santa

The three major indexes are coming off back-to-back winning weeks, with the S&P 500 on Friday rising closer to records it set earlier this year. Stocks’ advances came as investors geared up for the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year, which is set to kick off tomorrow.

Here’s what to know:

  • The delayed release of September’s personal consumption expenditures price index showed core PCE — a key inflation measure — was lighter than economists anticipated on a 12-month basis.
  • The report gave stocks a boost on Friday, as traders bet the data would encourage Fed officials to cut interest rates this week.
  • The Fed is set to announce its decision on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in about a 90% likelihood that the central bank cuts interest rates again, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
  • Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he expects the U.S. economy to finish the year with 3% real GDP growth, even after the hit from the federal government shutdown.
  • Following its four-day win streak last week, the S&P 500 is now roughly 0.7% away from its intraday record and about a quarter-percent off its closing high.
  • Follow live markets updates here.

2. Changing of the guard

Todd Combs, portfolio manager at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., waits for the start of the “Berkshire Hathaway Invest In Yourself 5K” race presented by Brooks Sports, a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. company, on the sidelines of the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S., on Sunday, May 4, 2014.

Daniel Acker / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Berkshire Hathaway announced this morning that Todd Combs, investment officer and Geico CEO, will leave the conglomerate to join JPMorgan Chase as head of its new Security and Resiliency Initiative.

Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett, who will step down as CEO at the end of the year, said in a press release that Combs “made many great hires” for Geico and “broadened its horizons.”

Nancy Pierce, operations chief at Geico, will replace Combs as the business’ CEO. Berkshire also announced that its CFO Marc Hamburg will retire in June 2027 and be replaced by Charles Chang, current CFO of Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

3. L.A. confidential

Dado Ruvic | Reuters

Both Wall Street and Hollywood were left reeling after the announcement of the NetflixWarner Bros. deal on Friday. Now, the question is if the agreement can get over regulatory hurdles.

President Donald Trump’s administration views the deal with “heavy skepticism,” a senior administration official told CNBC’s Eamon Javers on Friday. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has already asked for an antitrust review, calling the deal an “anti-monopoly nightmare.”

Believing it has a better chance of securing regulatory approval, Paramount Skydance is weighing whether to bring a bid straight to WBD shareholders in a last-ditch effort to beat Netflix, sources told CNBC’s Alex Sherman. Meanwhile, movie theater operators are wondering whether they can survive if the Netflix deal makes the world’s largest streaming service the owner of a major film studio.

4. Google’s answer

Silas Stein | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

After losing its search antitrust case last year, Alphabet on Friday got more details about the consequences it will face.

U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta said Google can’t enter into an agreement like it has with Apple, which it pays for search browser usage, unless the deal has termination date of a year or less. Mehta also listed requirements for the makeup of a committee that will decide who Google has to share its data with.

But as CNBC’s Jennifer Elias notes, these weren’t the most drastic punishments on the table. Mehta in September ruled against harsher penalties proposed by the Department of Justice, which could have included the forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser.

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5. Unfading endurance

How often should jeans really be washed?

Catherine Mcqueen | Moment | Getty Images

The global denim market is now a more than $100 billion industry, driven by major retailers such as Levi Strauss and American Eagle. But as CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge reports, its origins are far more humble.

Blue jeans were born out of a woman’s frustration with the frequent rips in her gold miner husband’s denim pants. Her tailor’s solution — adding copper rivets to the garment’s key points of strain — signified the birth of what we know today as the blue jean. In the approximately century and a half since, the pant has become a staple of American fashion that transcends income class and trend cycles.

The Daily Dividend

Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on this week:

CNBC Pro subscribers can see a calendar and rundown for the week here.

CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Ryan Ermey, Alex Sherman, Lillian Rizzo, Dan Mangan, Sarah Whitten, John Melloy, Jennifer Elias and Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.

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Confluent stock soars 29% as IBM announces $11 billion acquisition deal

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Confluent stock soars 29% as IBM announces  billion acquisition deal

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna speaks at the SXSW conference in Austin, Texas, on March 11, 2025.

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IBM announced Monday that it is acquiring data streaming platform Confluent in a deal worth $11 billion.

Shares of Confluent soared 29%. IBM stock climbed about 1%.

IBM will pay $31 per share in cash for all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Confluent, according to a release. The transaction is expected to close by the middle of 2026. Shares of Confluent closed at $23.14 on Friday.

Tune in at 10:10 a.m. ET as IBM CEO Arvind Krishna joins CNBC TV to discuss the deal. Watch in real time on CNBC+ or the CNBC Pro stream.

“With the acquisition of Confluent, IBM will provide the smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI,” IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said in a release.

IBM said the deal will bolster its artificial intelligence offerings as it expects global data growth to more than double by 2028.

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Wedbush called it a “strong move” from IBM that adds more data processing capabilities to its hybrid cloud ecosystem and is a natural fit to help eliminate data silos for powering AI.

“We loudly applaud this deal as Arvind takes IBM further into the AI Revolution with more acquisitions likely ahead,” the analysts said in a note.

Wedbush maintained its overweight rating on IBM and $325 price target. IBM closed at $307.94 on Friday.

The addition of Confluent fits with IBM’s deal last year to land cloud software maker HashiCorp for $6.4 billion and the 2023 move to acquire Apptio in a deal worth $4.6 billion. Both of those acquisitions were all-cash deals.

Confluent has more than 6,500 clients across major industries and works with Anthropic, Amazon‘s AWS, Google Cloud Platform, Microsoft, Snowflake and others.

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BlackRock bets on ‘pick and shovel’ trade, singling out clear winners in AI spending spree

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BlackRock bets on ‘pick and shovel’ trade, singling out clear winners in AI spending spree

Ben Powell, chief strategist for Middle East and Asia Pacific at BlackRock Investment Institute, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week (ADFW) conference in Abu Dhabi, AD, United Arab Emirates, on Monday, Dec. 9, 2024.

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The wave of capital pouring into artificial intelligence infrastructure is far from peaking, said Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for APAC at BlackRock, arguing the sector’s “picks and shovels” suppliers — from chipmakers to energy producers and copper-wire manufacturers — remain the clearest winners as hyperscalers race to outspend one another.

The surge in AI-related capital expenditure shows no sign of slowing as tech giants push aggressively to secure an edge in what they see as a winner-takes-all contest, Powell told CNBC Monday on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi Finance Week.

“The capex deluge continues. The money is very, very clear,” he said, adding that BlackRock is focused on what he called a “traditional picks and shovels capex super boom, which still feels like it’s got more to go.”

AI infrastructure has been one of the biggest drivers of global investment this year, fueling a broader market rally, even as some investors question how long the boom can last.

Nvidia, whose GPU chips are the backbone of the AI revolution, became the first company to briefly surpass $5 trillion in market capitalization amid a dizzying AI-fueled market rally that sparked talk of an AI bubble.

Microsoft and OpenAI also reached a restructuring deal in October to support the ChatGPT developer’s fundraising efforts. OpenAI has reportedly been preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at $1 trillion, according to Reuters.

The build-out has set off long-term procurement efforts across the tech sector, from chip supply agreements to power commitments. Grid operators from the U.S. to the Middle East are racing to meet soaring electricity demand from new data centers. Companies, including Amazon and Meta, have budgeted tens of billions of dollars annually for AI-related investments.

S&P Global estimates data-center power demand could nearly double by 2030, mostly driven by hyperscale, enterprise and leased facilities, along with crypto-mining sites.

‘Dipping toes into credit market’

Powell also noted that leading tech firms have only begun to tap capital markets to fund the next phase of AI expansion, suggesting additional capital is on the way.

“The big companies have only just started dipping their toes into the credit markets… feels like there’s a lot more they can do there,” he said.

The “hyperscalers” are behaving as if coming second would effectively leave them out of the market, Powell said. That mindset, he added, has pushed firms to accelerate spending even at the risk of overshooting.

Much of that capital, Powell noted, is likely to flow to the companies powering the AI build-out rather than model developers, reinforcing a growing view among global investors that the most durable gains from the AI boom may lie in the hardware, energy and infrastructure ecosystems behind the technology.

“If we’re the recipients of that cash flow, I guess that’s a pretty good place to be, whether you’re making chips, whether you’re making energy all the way down to the copper wiring,” Powell noted, expecting “positive surprises driving those stocks in the year ahead.”

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