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OVER THE WINTER, as the Pittsburgh Pirates considered how to unleash the best pitching prospect in a generation on the baseball world, they landed on a plan with which they felt entirely comfortable and positively uncomfortable. No matter how well-thought-out the steps, how sound the logic, how reasoned the process, the success of a pitcher hangs in the balance. Even if a team does everything right, it still can go very, very wrong.

For the last month, Paul Skenes, the subject of all the planning, has carved up Triple-A hitting. His long-awaited debut in Pittsburgh is imminent, with the Pirates announcing he will start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs, and Skenes will arrive with a bullet train worth of hype. He went to the Pirates with the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, the deepest in recent memory. He is capable of doing things with a baseball unlike any man before him: No starter in the big leagues ever has thrown as consistently hard as Skenes.

None of that hoopla factored into Pittsburgh’s approach to his 2024 season, but the alarming rates at which it has watched the game’s best hit the injured list certainly did. The Pirates didn’t want to rush the right-hander — and they didn’t want to hold him back, either. They loved everything about him — except for all of the things they couldn’t know. They drew a roadmap they hoped would bring out the best in him — and acknowledged they had no clue whether it would succeed.

“I don’t claim that we have any sort of scientific master formula for how we’re doing this,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “I don’t know for sure that this plan is right. I can’t say that.”

If we judge Skenes’ success on outcome over process, all has gone according to plan. Skenes has been everything he’s supposed to be: 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds of dominance, with an average fastball of 100 mph and four other pitches with which he befuddles hitters. Less than a year out from a College World Series appearance, he has a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 27.1 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis this season.

The Pirates, though, understand that results-oriented analyses are inherently flawed. And while they found no comfort in managing the future face of their franchise with what amounts to an educated guess, they were able to take solace in at least one thing: When it comes to following a plan, Skenes has plenty of experience.


WHEN HE ARRIVED at the Air Force Academy in 2021, Skenes did not appear on any list to be the next great major league pitcher for a good reason: He was a catcher. As a freshman, he hit .410/.486/.697 with 32 extra-base hits in 188 at-bats. He was also the Falcons’ closer, notching 11 saves and showing enough acumen to go full Ohtani as a sophomore, starting 15 games on the mound and spending the rest of the time behind the plate.

Schools around the country took notice. Skenes entered the transfer portal and drew widespread interest. While some teams wanted him as a two-way player, LSU recruited him strictly to pitch. It appealed to Skenes, as did the Tigers’ pitching coach, Wes Johnson, who had parlayed a successful college coaching career into the Minnesota Twins’ major league pitching coach job before returning to the amateur ranks with LSU.

“He knew what he needed to do, but he didn’t know how. He was hunting the how,” Johnson said. “We got in there, and from his diet to learning a slider, we helped him figure that out.”

Deeply thoughtful and impressively methodical, Skenes gobbled up the knowledge offered by Johnson — in some cases literally. Typically, a pitcher throwing with the force of Skenes burns about 5,000 calories a game. To combat the energy drain of pitching, Johnson suggested Skenes supplement his diet with shots of honey.

“Paul would go through half a bear a game,” Johnson said.

Skenes needed the pick-me-up to execute what he was trying to pull off: surviving a jump from the Mountain West Conference to the SEC, the best college baseball conference in the country. Even more important than his dietary changes — which allowed him to maintain his weight during the season, a rarity — were the efforts to help Skenes start throwing an effective breaking ball. He had thrived at Air Force with a fastball-changeup combination, but SEC hitters would pummel him without an effective spinner. He spent the winter working with Johnson on a slider, and scouts who went to see Skenes in Baton Rouge emerged suggesting something that once seemed inconceivable: He might be good enough to steal the top spot in the amateur draft from his teammate, outfielder Dylan Crews.

Skenes spent the coming spring proving those scouts prophetic. Over 19 starts, he threw 122.2 innings and struck out 209 against 20 walks. In less than two years, he had become the most polished pitching prospect in a decade. All season, Skenes balanced otherworldly performance with an insatiable desire to learn more. Even as the slider emerged as an elite pitch, Skenes, after one particular start, told Johnson that while it was good enough to get out college hitters, it wouldn’t have played in the big leagues.

“He’s not hard on himself,” said Johnson, now the head coach at the University of Georgia. “He’s just really good at self-evaluation.”

At one point during the season that would end with Skenes winning the College World Series’ Most Outstanding Player for the national champion Tigers, he asked to meet with Johnson to assess his progress. During the conversation, Johnson said, Skenes seemed to finally realize what would soon become clear to anyone watching him.

“I don’t mean this to be arrogant,” Skenes said. “I think the only way I get beat is when I beat myself.”

To make that harder to do, he picked up a few other pitches at LSU to complement his fastball and slider. To capitalize on his velocity, Skenes toyed around with a splinker — a hybrid of a splitter and a sinker — thrown by only one other pitcher, Twins closer Jhoan Duran. With his newfound feel for spin, he developed a curveball, too. While neither pitch fully formed in college, he kept working at them.

“What we’re seeing, more than anything, is a remarkable desire to be very honest with information, very honest with feedback and very fast to adjust,” Cherington said. “I hate making comps. This is not a great comp because it’s not the same type of player. But I’ve told people I believe Mookie Betts is the best practice player I’ve ever been around. Yes, he’s talented, but specifically because he’s so open to the truth and has such a comfortable relationship with, ‘Oh, I’m not doing that well enough? Great. Give it to me so I can do something about it.’

“It sounds so simple, but it’s very hard for people to do that. And we see some of that in Paul. Different players, different personalities, different people. But that relationship with the feedback he’s getting about what his pitches are doing, what his delivery is doing, this is the target of where they want it to be. Those adjustments happen quickly.”


FOR THE BETTER part of a decade, the Pittsburgh Pirates have lived among the dregs of Major League Baseball. They are terminally parsimonious, running a bottom-five Opening Day payroll for the past seven seasons. Since Cherington took over as GM in November 2019, they’ve made organizational strides but never finished higher than fourth place in the National League Central division.

To win the inaugural draft lottery in 2022, then, was a gift for an organization that last made the postseason in 2015. On July 9, 2023, the Pirates chose Skenes over Crews and Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford with the first pick in the draft. After signing for a record $9.2 million bonus, Skenes threw 6.2 innings over five Low-A appearances that summer. They were glorified bullpen sessions following the grind of the college season, more an opportunity for Skenes to familiarize himself with the organization and vice versa.

The real work started last winter. The Pirates recognized that Skenes could have pitched effectively in the major leagues the day he was drafted, but they wondered whether sending him there to start the 2024 season would be best for his long-term development. Before it could figure out how best to deploy Skenes, the Pirates’ front office needed to answer a question: What are we trying to accomplish?

“We took him 1-1. We really, really think highly of him,” Cherington said. “We’re placing a very strong bet on him and have believed since the day we drafted him that he’s going to be a really good major league starting pitcher. But pitching is hard to predict a week from now, let alone a year from now.”

What Pittsburgh landed on attempted to balance the future and the now. A drastic increase over his 122 innings from last year spooked the Pirates, even, as Cherington admits, “there’s an arbitrariness in that.” Starting Skenes in the major leagues while throttling him could cause undue strain on the team’s bullpen.

By sending Skenes to the minor leagues, the Pirates reasoned, they could see firsthand how he best operates and what he needs. He could introduce his splinker and curveball in an environment likelier to build confidence in the pitches. He could check a number of boxes progressively: efficiency in his early starts with limited pitch counts, game-planning as he was allowed to go through a lineup multiple times and stamina as he transitioned from five days’ rest to the standard four in the major leagues. All while keeping his minor league innings totals low so they don’t have to shut him down before the end of the season.

“We’d rather have the majority of the volume available to him be in the major leagues and not the minor leagues,” Cherington said. “Managing the volume progression early so it’s building more slowly than an established major league starter’s would, but in a way where we’re not using an unnecessary number of innings in the minor leagues.”

The plan made sense to Skenes. He’s 21 years old. As tantalizing as pitching in the major leagues is, he’s also patient enough to recognize the value of slow-playing his first full professional season. At the same time, because of the Pirates’ miserly ways and general ineffectiveness — they currently occupy last place in the NL Central at 17-21 — the less-charitable read on the decision was that the team was manipulating Skenes’ service time. By keeping Skenes in the minor leagues until May 11, when he’ll officially be called up for his debut, he will reach free agency after the 2030 season instead of 2029.

“I really don’t believe it’s played any role in this case. I really mean this,” Cherington said. “We decided in spring training that … we wanted to build the volume more slowly than an established major league starter would. Once we made that decision, functionally, it has to start in the minor leagues.”


FROM THE MOMENT he started in Triple-A Indianapolis, it was evident Skenes did not belong there. In his first outing, he struck out five hitters in three perfect innings. He allowed two baserunners in his next start with six punchouts. He K’d eight hitters in each of his next two games, both with 3.1 scoreless innings. He allowed his first run in his fifth start, then stretched out in his sixth with six shutout innings on 75 pitches. At this point, every box is checked.

“Seriously, when I say he’s pretty good, it’s different. I ain’t being dramatic,” said reliever Brent Honeywell, who was with the Padres and White Sox last season and played in Indianapolis with Skenes this season. “It’s like, oh, he throws hard, he throws hard, he throws hard. Yeah, that s—‘s cool and all, but the kid can flat-out pitch. Pitch. That dude paints. He throws it where it’s intended to go, and I think it’s the biggest thing that Paul Skenes does. He’s got a cool fastball. His heater’s really good. But that dude throws the ball where it’s supposed to go.”

Honeywell is right. It’s not just the fastball, which Skenes has thrown 46.9% of the time at an average of 100 mph on the dot. The splinker is a weapon, generating swings and misses 21% of the time as it sizzles up to 97 mph. Batters are hitting .158 against the slider. Five of the 11 curveballs Skenes has thrown have been on the first pitch, a surprise for anyone who dares sit fastball.

“The great ones have this ability to stretch their mind to these uncomfortable levels,” Johnson said. “That’s why they don’t give away at-bats. That’s how they don’t take pitches off. Paul already has that side of him. The Pirates knew what they were getting with the talent and body and raw numbers. But he’s so advanced on that kind of stuff.”

Knowing that their time with him was nearing its end, Skenes’ teammates in Indianapolis tried to enjoy the remaining moments. They’ll miss his outlandish performances, sure, but also his baseball knowledge and sense of humor. Grant Koch, who caught the majority of Skenes’ starts, had a running joke on days he didn’t play. If a reliever needed to warm up, Koch would toss Skenes his catcher’s mitt and say, within earshot of the coaching staff: “Hey, Paul, go grab him for me real quick. I’ve got to go to the bathroom.” The response, Koch said, from the coaches: “No, no, no, no.”

“When you’re around people that are great and special at what they do, you learn a lot being around them,” Koch said. “Pitching and game-planning wise. Routine stuff. He takes his work very seriously. Hopefully I’ve made him comfortable and helped him in a way. But I’m appreciative of the time. It’s been a cool experience.”

Not just for a player like Koch who has yet to make the big leagues but one like Honeywell who’s angling to return. Six years ago, Honeywell was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball, universally ranked among the game’s 15 best. Though arm injuries waylaid Honeywell’s ascent, he emerged with the sort of perspective that few understand.

Everyone, Honeywell said, will want to get a hit off Skenes’ fastball — “just to tell their friends they did it.” And in the major leagues, where 29 pitchers this season have thrown 100 mph-plus fastballs, velocity doesn’t play quite the same. It’s necessary, he said, for Skenes to remember that as good as the fastball is, he’s far more than one impressive pitch.

“He knows where he is going,” Honeywell said. “He knows where he is headed. He knows what his job’s supposed to be. He goes about his business the right way. The kid just wants to pitch. And I think the kid was made to pitch.”


ONE NEED ONLY consider the careers of previous pitching phenoms Mark Prior and Stephen Strasburg to see how wrong things can go for even seemingly the safest of pitching prospects.

In 2002, Prior blew through the minor leagues in 51 innings and threw another 116.2 that season. He jumped to 211.1 innings the next year and at 22 years old looked like baseball’s next great ace. Arm injuries derailed his career. He threw his last big league pitch at 25.

In 2010, Strasburg was even better than Prior in 55.1 minor league innings and threw another 68 before he tore his ulnar collateral ligament and needed Tommy John surgery. He returned in late 2011 for five starts and cruised through 159.1 innings in 2012 before the Nationals shut him down three weeks before the postseason. On-and-off injuries limited him for the remainder of his career, and he threw his last meaningful pitch at 31.

Now it’s Skenes’ turn. And it comes at a trying time for pitchers, when for all of the gains the sport has seen in maximizing pitching performance and velocity, keeping elite arms healthy remains a high-stakes crapshoot.

“The pitching ecosystem knows so much about how to optimize: the body, the delivery, the way the arm works, how fast guys move, creating force,” Cherington said. “What hasn’t changed is the way the elbow and shoulder are built when you’re born. We have way more data. We should be way more precise about what’s going on.”

It will be years before the Pirates know if the plan worked. And even if it does — if Skenes stays healthy and turns into the next great ace — the line from plan to success is neither clear nor causative.

As scary as the prospect of Skenes improving on the fly might be for the rest of the NL Central, it’s what the Pirates need. Already this year they’ve added a hypertalented, hard-throwing, right-handed rookie to their rotation in Jared Jones. Pairing him with Skenes and right-hander Mitch Keller gives Pittsburgh the sort of starting staff that could be the envy of baseball sooner than later and perhaps convince owner Bob Nutting to push the Pirates’ payroll past $100 million for the first time.

Cherington is quick not to get too far ahead of himself. He tries not to stress about the list of high-velocity pitchers and arm injuries. Shohei Ohtani isn’t pitching this season because of reconstructive elbow surgery. Nor are Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez. Cole and Jesus Luzardo are out with elbow injuries, Grayson Rodriguez and Bobby Miller on the shelf with shoulder issues. That’s nine of the 10 hardest-throwing starters in 2023 — a spot Skenes and Jones are certain to fill in their absence.

“We don’t know exactly the right way to manage it,” Cherington said. “We don’t. We want to win games, and they give us a chance to make that happen. In most cases, we’d really like to have models that really inform our decisions. And then humans can stress those models and push them left and right. In this case, we don’t have a model telling us.”

Ahead they forge nevertheless, unclear if their plan was right, praying things don’t go wrong. Such is life in modern baseball, where you never know. You simply hope.

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SEC’s Sankey: Not settled on preferred CFP format

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SEC's Sankey: Not settled on preferred CFP format

DESTIN, Fla. — SEC commissioner Greg Sankey opened the league’s annual meetings Monday by saying he’s open-minded about the format of the College Football Playoff, while leaving some breadcrumbs about what he thinks are priorities in the conference’s decision-making.

With SEC athletic directors, presidents and coaches converging in Destin this week, the future of the College Football Playoff in 2026 and beyond is one of the central issues facing the league.

That’s in part because the playoff format decision is kinetic, as it impacts the SEC’s football schedule going to nine games and some type of down-the-road scheduling partnership with the Big Ten.

“We’re not committed to any particular format,” Sankey said.

With conversations among CFP leaders about format having appeared to splinter off to just the four power conference commissioners, a 16-team model looms as the most likely for the future of the sport. Sankey remains noncommittal on how the SEC thinks that should work, as college football enters the final year of its current postseason format.

The most discussed model has been one where the Big Ten and SEC would get four automatic bids each, and the ACC and Big 12 two each.

But Sankey stressed that the so-called 4-4-2-2-1-3 model, which distributes one automatic bid to the non-power leagues and three available at-large bids — one potentially for Notre Dame if it falls within the seeding threshold — has not been decided on in his room.

“We’ll see how that conversation manifests itself this week and we’ll look a little bit more deeply at different ideas,” he said, “which will put me at some point in a better position to answer those questions.”

Sankey did dive into some traits in the CFP system that he’d like to see, including a prioritization of the regular season — and games like Nebraska‘s recently cancelled series with Tennessee — while keeping postseason hopes alive for a swath of teams deep into the season.

“I think the word ‘hope’ is at the center, too,” Sankey said. “How do you bring people into the conversation late in the season in a changing environment, and so the idea of, ‘Could you have play-in-type games?’ continues to populate itself before you’re in the CFP selection. That’s about building interest and giving hope.

“Whether that’s the ultimate destination, we’ll see.”

The Big Ten and commissioner Tony Petitti have been more bullish on the four automatic bids, according to sources. Sankey has spoken about them but remains more guarded in his support.

Last week at the Big Ten meetings in California, the league came away still in support of the 4-4-2-2-1-3 model for the playoff, sources said. The Big Ten remains open to other ideas, but that model is at the forefront.

Sankey’s guarded stance stayed true Monday evening: “We’re trying to find a format to determine, whatever number it is, the best teams in college football, and I think where we are right now is we have used a political process inside a room to come to decisions about football. We should be using football information to come to football decisions.”

Sankey did make clear his disappointment in the reactions of the ACC and Big 12 commissioners to the move to a straight seeding model announced last week. Both commissioners referenced the macro good of the game in responses, with the ACC’s Jim Phillips saying that’s a “responsibility I take very seriously” and the Big 12’s Brett Yormark saying he hopes what’s best for college football is “the priority” in discussions moving forward.

Sankey felt those separate responses from the leagues were coordinated — although they were not formally, as neither released a statement — and remarked: “I don’t need lectures from others about ‘good of the game.’ I don’t lecture others about good of the game and coordinating press releases about good of the game. OK, you can issue your press statement, but I’m actually looking for ideas to move us forward.”

A Big 12 spokesman, Clark Williams, said on social media that there was not even a release, never mind a coordinated one, from the league.

He did add that the Big 12 and ACC did eventually bring some CFP ideas, but they don’t appear to have gained traction as they involved more bids — or bids with thresholds — for the ACC and Big 12.

Sankey said displacement of SEC teams would loom as such a big issue if those models were accepted that he’d likely lose his job.

“That’s tough” he said, walking through a series of potential displacement scenarios for his members. “I don’t think it’d be me at the podium in the future if some of those ideas [came to fruition].”

The other issue looming over meetings is the potential for the settlement of the House case this week. He remains hopeful a decision comes.

“We have a responsibility for implementation,” he said, “so does it pivot what we say this week? Yep. Does it mean we’re going to keep preparing? We’re going to keep preparing.”

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ESPN Junior 300: Comparisons for top 2027 prospects

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ESPN Junior 300: Comparisons for top 2027 prospects

The ESPN Junior 300 rankings are here, setting the stage for a pivotal next several months for the top rising juniors across the country.

This class already has several five-stars who grab attention right away, including a quarterback commit who reminds us of one of the top quarterback prospects in the country, as well as yet another elite Ohio State wide receiver commit.

Here’s how the top players at each position stack up, with a focus on five-stars who could continue to impress in the months ahead.

ESPN Junior 300 rank: 53

Reminds us of: Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

When it comes to pure passing acumen, Houston has everything evaluators look for. He has one of the smoothest, cleanest releases in recent classes with extremely consistent mechanics. Houston throws with power and velocity, and the ball jumps off his hand. Defenses have a hard time rushing him because he gets the ball out of his hand so quickly. The 5-foot-11, 200-pounder might not have elite size, but he makes every throw and looks pretty good doing it.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 42

Reminds us of: Austin Simmons, Ole Miss

Haven has been an incredible two-sport athlete and, after playing several positions in high school, his best football might still be ahead of him once he settles in at quarterback. He’s big, athletic and raw with physical tools that can’t be coached. Although he’s a very good runner for his size, he is not necessarily a dynamic dual threat. At 6-foot-5, 215 pounds, Haven is similar to Joe Milton coming out of high school. Like Milton, Hazen should iron out some technical quirks to maximize his arm strength and accuracy over time.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 10

Committed to: Penn State Nittany Lions

Reminds us of: Makhi Hughes, Oregon

Spell is a bit short at 5-foot-10, but he’s not small. He’s built similarly to former Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, even if he doesn’t weigh as much yet. Spell is a low-to-the-ground scatback who plays in a single wing/wing-T offense as both a tailback and wing back. He gets lost behind the line of scrimmage, then fits through tiny creases and is into the second level, winning foot races in no time. Spell has the burst to make defenders miss in the hole, which makes up for his lack of stature or power. He’s a really good perimeter runner because he can get to the edge and turn the corner.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 2

Committed to: Ohio State Buckeyes

Reminds us of: Eric Singleton Jr., Auburn

Brown is a handful. The Ohio State commit has Ja’Marr Chase-like burst, acceleration and the ability to take the top off the defense. Even though Brown has the physical tools to overwhelm high school defenders, his polished route-running shows he already understands some of the nuances of the position. He ran a 4.49-second laser-timed 40-yard dash in April 2025, a 10.5-second 100-meter dash in 2024 and has a Max Speed on film of 21.3 mph.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 16

Reminds us of: Antonio Williams, Clemson

Sabb could project at safety but will likely begin his career at wide receiver. His impact and value as a special teams returner should get him on the field quickly. Sabb is extremely difficult to tackle in the open field, and despite a slim 6-1, 185-pound frame, he breaks tackles routinely and extends plays. Sabb is a home run threat as a return specialist who can flip field position and provide points. His ball skills are as good as any receiver in this class, and he consistently makes difficult catches look routine.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 25

Reminds us of: Colston Loveland, Michigan

Hudson headlines several big-play weapons at tight end in the 2027 class. Historically, there’s a strong correlation between basketball background and tight end success. Hudson fits the bill. The 6-foot-6 standout has offers in both sports and a desirable combination of height, length and catch radius. He does a great job high-pointing the ball as a dangerous red zone threat. Hudson is a matchup problem who can work from both the in-line position and flexed out. He needs to put more blocking on tape, but he’s proving to be a versatile player.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 1

Reminds us of: Armand Membou, Missouri

Brown has the tools to become a coveted elite college tackle. Based on his film and an excellent April performance at the Houston Under Armour camp, stamping five-star status on him was an easy decision. Brown doesn’t have eye-popping height at 6-foot-4, but he has an unbelievable wingspan and big hands. He’s also likely not done growing, which would address his need to add more mass. Brown’s athleticism stands out at this stage. He’s light on his feet with good body quickness, natural bend and, at times, effortless pass protection. His areas of growth are correctable and will come with more physical maturation.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 13

Remind us of: Daylen Everette, Georgia

Gilbert’s 22.2 mph Max Speed on tape is elite, and he has also posted a 10.57-second 100-meter dash. He needs to get stronger and fill out his lean 6-foot, 170-pound frame, but that hasn’t affected his willingness to be a stout run supporter. Gilbert plays bigger than his listed measurables, is highly competitive, likes to mix it up and can really run.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 3

Reminds us of: Jermaine Mathews Jr., Ohio State

Meredith’s best football is ahead of him as he settles into a full-time cornerback role. He has played all over the field and is a dynamic athlete with instincts and a great feel for the game. At 6-foot-2, Meredith has great length and height for the position, and he ran a blazing 4.42-second laser-timed 40-yard dash. He has also posted a 21.2 mph Max Speed on tape. His high ceiling is exciting considering he’s just getting started as a defender.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 7

Reminds us of: Walter Nolen, Ole Miss

Brewster is 6-3, 305 pounds, but he’s a versatile athlete who carries his weight well and moves like a much smaller man. He posted strong testing numbers, and his versatility showed up on film, where he has played running back, wildcat quarterback and also as a stand-up edge on defense. Defensive line is the long-term focus and he has the tools to develop into a disruptive 3-technique matchup problem. Brewster regularly won 1-on-1 reps in camp settings this spring, using his quickness to gain leverage along with his active hands. He’s a defensive tackle who makes plays against the run and as an interior pass rusher, but his versatility will allow a college program to deploy him along its front to exploit matchups and get the best defensive linemen on the field at the same time.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 4

Reminds us of: T.J. Parker, Clemson

This is a strong class for defensive line and edge prospects. Forstall is a big reason why. He needs to continue developing his 6-4 frame, which is important, but he already looks like a much older player. Forstall tests well, explodes off the ball with good bend and pad level, and he redirects well. His effort allows him to factor into pursuit. Beyond his excellent tools, Forstall has the acumen of a player who could make the jump now. He uses his hands well, shows good awareness and quickly locates the ball. Forstall is always in the right position, and with continued development could become a three-down impact defender. With an offensive tackle ranked No. 1 on our board, it’s only fitting a defensive end could push him hardest for that top ranking.


ESPN Junior 300 rank: 5

Reminds us of: David Bailey, Texas Tech

While he’s listed as an outside linebacker, Guyton fits more as an edge and can be a handful getting up the field. His strong and quick hands are among the first traits that jump out on film. He’s an active presence who delivers a quick jolt with good power. Guyton isn’t a pass rusher who tries to get to the corner and simply run around tackles. Instead, he wants to punish them on his path to the quarterback. The explosive athlete reportedly notched 16 sacks during his first two high school seasons and should develop into a physical, relentless edge presence.

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Can anyone unseat Judge and Ohtani? Latest on all of MLB’s award races

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Can anyone unseat Judge and Ohtani? Latest on all of MLB's award races

With Memorial Day weekend behind us, the 2025 MLB season has taken shape. The exact outlines will change, but we’re past the point where teams and observers can dismiss anything with the “it’s early” wave of the hand.

That is true for the 30 teams at this first major traditional checkpoint of a baseball season, but it’s also true for players, many of whom have seen enough action that from a statistical standpoint, their rates have stabilized. That makes this a perfect time to take our first glimpse at how the awards races are shaping up.

So as we check in with our initial Awards Watch rankings of the season, we see much that looks similar to where we left off in 2024. In fact, the AXE ratings that feed these rankings see dual repeats in the respective MVP races.

That’s no surprise, as the first weeks of the 2025 season have done little to change the lofty appraisals of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who continue to do historical things in mesmerizing fashion.

Yet there are new faces here, too, and those are perhaps even more fun because it’s these kinds of emergent stories that add flavor to every new campaign. Can any of these new upstarts challenge the Judge/Ohtani dual dominance?

Maybe not, but it’ll be fun to watch them try, and the jockeying for position in the awards derby is already well underway.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (157 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (137); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (133); 4. Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox (129); 5. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128); 6. Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros (126); 7. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (124); 8. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Astros (123); Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians (123); 10. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (122)

Leader trend: At this point, Judge is competing against himself. Last season, Judge’s 218 wRC+ ranked as the seventh best of the modern era by an AL or NL hitter. In other words, he put up one of the greatest offensive seasons in history. In 2025, he is on track to do even better and has a chance to top Barry Bonds’ 2002 record of a 244. He is leading the AL in all three slash categories (homers, RBIs and hits) and runs. He might soon start spurring an onslaught of “Can Judge really hit .400?” articles. The only thing that could derail Judge from unanimous support in MVP balloting is injury.

Biggest mover: For this first edition of Awards Watch, the “biggest mover” measure is based on 2024’s end-of-season numbers. With that in mind, even though Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (118 AXE) didn’t quite crack the top 10, he deserves mention for bouncing back from a dreadful campaign. Despite being selected first overall by Detroit in 2020, Torkelson entered this season just below replacement for his career. He’s turned that around, posting 1.4 bWAR already, topping his 2024 homer and RBI numbers before Memorial Day and upped his OPS+ from 89 to 146. This is what the Tigers had in mind when they picked Tork.

Keep an eye on: Raleigh has staked claim to the title of baseball’s best all-around catcher. Coming off his first Gold Glove, Raleigh has also been one of the game’s best hitters so far. A pure three true outcomes batsman, Raleigh has been even better in those columns, upping his isolated power by homering at a near-Judgian pace, cutting strikeouts (a little) and pushing his walk rate to elite levels. He’s also improved his on-contact numbers by replacing some of his ground balls with line drives, resulting in — for him — a batting average breakout (.254).


National League

Front-runner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (138)

Next nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (136); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (134); 4. (tie) Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (130); Kyle Tucker, Cubs (130); 6. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (129); 7. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (127); 8. Will Smith, Dodgers (125); 9. James Wood, Washington Nationals (125); 10. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (124)

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong’s emergence has made him one of baseball’s best stories this season. Entering the season, we knew that PCA, as he’s affectionately called, could post elite defense and baserunning metrics. If only he could hit! Would a leap from an 88 to a 149 OPS+ work? How about a pace that could see Crow-Armstrong post a 40/40 season? The strike zone numbers suggest a coming regression — more than five whiffs for every walk — but so far, so great.

Biggest mover: Perdomo has transformed himself at the plate, making him the NL’s top shortstop during the opening months of the season. Always a high-contact hitter, Perdomo has sliced the whiffs even more while adding walks, a tough dual feat to pull off, but it’s allowed him to push his OBP above the vaunted . 400 line. On top of that, Perdomo has featured more power by matching his career high with six early homers. Match those upgrades with his usual plus defense and an 11-for-11 showing on the base paths, and the Diamondbacks find themselves with an elite shortstop.

Keep an eye on: Ho hum. Doesn’t it seem like Ohtani is ever so slightly off from last season’s unprecedented level? Well, his percentages are on target to match or exceed those numbers. He’s on pace for 55 homers and 165(!) runs. Only his steal numbers are down from last season, but, lest we forget, his metrics might be bolstered by pitching categories in the near future. Meanwhile, even though Ohtani doesn’t lead NL hitters in either of the major versions of WAR, AXE likes his sizable lead in WPA among all NL batsmen.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Kris Bubic, Royals (134)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees (130); Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (130); 4. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (129); 5. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (127); 6. Hunter Brown, Astros (125); 7. Andres Munoz, Mariners (123); 8. (tie) Tyler Mahle, Rangers (121); Bryan Woo, Mariners (121); 10. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (119)

Leader trend: Bubic’s emergence hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere, but he’s validated anyone who pegged him as a breakout player for 2025. Bubic is a cerebral lefty who has shaped and reshaped his arsenal during his career, which was interrupted by elbow surgery and rehab. Bubic has sparkled by being aggressive in the zone and has succeeded doing that without top-shelf velocity. It’s not a fluke, though he probably won’t finish with the 1.45 ERA he’s posted through 11 outings. Still, this race is just getting started, and the leaderboard is likely to change every time one of these hurlers take the mound.

Biggest mover: Brown has flashed brilliance before, but in 2025 he has reached another level in blending dominance with consistency. He has put up eight quality starts in 10 outings, leading the AL in that category. His average game score (64.4) ranks just behind Eovaldi, Fried and Skubal atop the circuit.

Keep an eye on: Skubal won it last year going away and has to be considered the favorite to repeat, even if he hasn’t quite returned to the top of the statistical leaderboards. While Skubal’s ERA is up a tiny bit (2.39 to 2.49), his FIP is better (2.49 and 1.98). The latter portends a continuation of the dominance we’ve seen from the Tigers’ ace since last season. Indeed, Skubal’s last start — a complete-game, two-hit, 13-strikeout shutout against Cleveland — was the best outing of his sparkling career.


National League

Front-runner: Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (133)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (131); 3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (125); 4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (122); 5. Kodai Senga, New York Mets (122); 6. (tie) Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants (119); Nick Pivetta, Padres (119); Logan Webb, Giants (119); Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (119); 10. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (118)

Leader trend: Luzardo was a top-10 prospect when he reached the majors with the A’s in 2019. While Luzardo has had some solid moments in the bigs as he’s moved from the A’s to the Marlins to the Phillies, this is the pitcher the prospect wonks envisioned. Everything is better: more strikeouts, fewer walks and a home run rate so low it barely registers. Luzardo’s rise has more than compensated for the early struggles of rotation mate Aaron Nola.

Biggest mover: It’s actually Luzardo, so let’s spotlight Senga, who has bounced back spectacularly after his injury-plagued 2024 season. His ERA through 10 starts (1.46, tops in the NL) almost certainly can’t last, but Senga has emerged as the ace the Mets needed. Through those 10 outings, Senga has faced 228 batters and allowed two — two — home runs. Not bad for a pitcher who pitched in one regular-season game a year ago, then gave up seven runs over five postseason innings.

Keep an eye on: After finishing as runner-up in NL Cy Young balloting last year for the second time in his Phillies career, Wheeler might be even better. His ERA and FIP categories are on target with 2024, but he’s been even more dominant in the strikeout and walk categories. According to FanGraphs, only Gore has a better strikeouts-minus-walks percentage, an excellent measure of dominance and sustainability.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (113); 4. Chase Meidroth, White Sox (111); 5. Cam Smith, Astros (110); 6. (tie) Justin Sterner, Athletics (107); Noah Cameron, Royals (107); Will Warren, Yankees (107); Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles (107); 10. Kameron Misner, Tampa Bay Rays (106)

Leader trend: Wilson might be the most interesting player in the majors. Considering all the things teams hold dear in player development and evaluation these days, how do you account for a player like this? Some of his percentile rankings at Statcast: bat speed (1st, or lowest), hard-hit rate (5th), walk rate (16th) and expected batting average (95th). What?! Wilson has struck out in barely 5% of his plate appearances this season. He swings at everything, contacts everything and everything seems to find a hole. Can it last? Let’s hope so because baseball needs hitters like this to flourish.

Biggest mover: Well, they’re rookies, so we’ll skip this one for this first edition. But rookie rankings change a lot as the season progresses, especially as some of those who will turn out to be among this year’s top first-timers are still in the minors. Possible example: Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone, who has already mashed his way from Double-A to Triple-A and, after homering five times over the weekend, seems intent on slugging all the way to the majors. Check back next month.

Keep an eye on: Kristian Campbell (92 AXE) has risen quickly and become a lineup fixture in Boston. The Red Sox have already rewarded him with an eight-year extension. The future is undoubtedly bright. Though, strictly speaking, his numbers haven’t been anything special. The results should get better, at least at the plate, and as an everyday player on a contending team, Campbell has every chance at being a key part of the Rookie of the Year conversation. But he will need to manifest that improvement.


National League

Front-runner: Chad Patrick, Brewers (113)

Next nine: 2. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (111); 3. Ben Casparius, Dodgers (110); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (107); 5. Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins (106); 6. Tim Tawa, Diamondbacks (104); 7. Max Kranick, Mets (103); 8. Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (103); 9. AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (102); 10. Isaac Collins, Brewers (101)

Leader trend: The Brewers always seem to come up with one or two (or more) unsung pitchers who excel. This year, Patrick certainly fits that bill, posting a 3.23 ERA over 11 outings, including 10 starts. A lack of swing-and-miss stuff kept Patrick off the prospect radar, but so far, he’s made it work with command and a lot of soft contact. Patrick has already been traded twice in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland at the 2023 deadline for Jace Peterson, then moving from the A’s to Milwaukee after that season for Abraham Toro. This is what the Brewers do.

Biggest mover: While Wilson has emerged as a clear early-season front runner for AL Rookie of the Year honors, no one has achieved that status in the NL. Baldwin has been dynamite but hasn’t played everyday. Casparius has been effective but not in the kind of role that typically attracts awards support. Chances are, this leaderboard will look a whole lot different a month from now. That stated, expected Baldwin to stay somewhere on it, as he’s been a real force at the plate when he’s played. Increasingly lately, Baldwin has been usurping playing time behind the plate from veteran Sean Murphy.

Keep an eye on: Henderson has only made four starts, but what a beginning it’s been. Henderson won his first three outings and, overall, has allowed four runs over 21 innings with 29 strikeouts and six walks. He’s the first-ever Brewers pitcher to win each of his first three career appearances.

Manager of the Year

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (109.8 EARL)

Next four: 2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (108.6); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (105.5); 4. Dan Wilson, Mariners (105.3); 5. Matt Quatraro, Royals (104.7)

Overview: The Tigers’ breakout might have begun late last season, but it’s only accelerated in 2025 as Detroit has become the story in the American League. The Tigers’ over/under for wins at ESPN BET has gone from 83.5 at the start of the season to 94.5. That 11-win increase is four more than any other team. Hinch has never won Manager of the Year honors.


National League

Front-runner: Rob Thomson, Phillies (107.7)

Next four: 2. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.7); 3. Bob Melvin, Giants (104.9); 4. Craig Counsell, Cubs (104.3); 5. Dave Martinez, Nationals (104.2)

Overview: This is a tightly packed race, with Thomson emerging as a fairly surprising early leader. The Phillies were expected to contend, to be sure, but have outperformed their run differential by three wins to date and are a sparkling 10-4 in one-run games. This system likes those things. Marmol has been rising fast as the Cardinals surge into surprising contention. He, Counsell and Melvin are more conventional candidates than Thomson.

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