Rafah is Biden’s red line for Netanyahu – but there’s not much he can do to stop it being crossed
Setting red lines is all very well, as long as you follow through when they are crossed. President Joe Biden knows that all too well.
But he also knows that if he follows through on this big new red line of withholding offensive weapons for Israel it could cost him dearly domestically.
The push-me-pull-you balance of geopolitics and domestic politics is intensely difficult right now for the American president.
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I’ll break this down into two parts. The politics in a moment. First the challenges of red lines.
Western leaders throw them down in interviews, like Mr Biden’s pronouncement on CNN last night, as unequivocal threats. “Cross the line, if you dare!” is the rhetoric.
But too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.
Barack Obama set a chemical weapons red line with Syria’s Bashar al Assad in 2012. He walked right through it.
Vladimir Putin remembered that when he walked through a red line Mr Biden had set on Ukraine in 2021. Mr Putin invaded. The rest is history.
Every red line is distinct, of course, and they vary in terms of the gravity of the event they are seeking to prevent.
But the principle behind laying them is the same, as is the message set when they are crossed.
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Joe Biden with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in 2011. Pic: AP
Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu
Over the past six months, as Israel has sought to defeat Hamas in Gaza, President Biden didn’t think he’d need to lay out red lines. After all, Israel is one of America’s closest allies.
Instead, the Biden administration thought gentle diplomacy and frank back-channels with a “close friend of America” would do the trick.
But gradually, as Mr Biden and the Netanyahu government increasingly diverged on protecting civilians and a plan for “the day after” in Gaza, a red line began to appear – Rafah.
This has become Mr Biden’s red line for Israel.
The American president has repeatedly made clear his opposition to Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on a ground invasion of the southern Gazan city (Mr Netanyahu’s own red line) where about 1.4 million people are living, half of them under 18.
Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city this week. Pic: AP
The Israeli military has not (yet) moved into Rafah city but is instead concentrating its operations to the east of the city and around the crossing to Egypt.
That fact has allowed the Biden administration to claim its red line hasn’t yet been crossed. “They didn’t describe it as a major ground operation,” spokesman John Kirby said this week.
Sometimes, red lines are smashed through. Sometimes, they are gradually chipped away at.
To counter the chipping Mr Netanyahu has been doing for weeks, Mr Biden hardened his red line.
“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” he told CNN.
A significant admission
That he has personally admitted what was already a fact – that American weapons have killed thousands of civilians – is significant.
But there is important nuance in his red line.
He’s talking about stopping the delivery of offensive weapons for the type of operations that have flattened much of Gaza and could do the same to Rafah.
He is not threatening to cut Israel off from all US weapons, of course not.
Defensive weapons to counter Iranian proxy rockets will keep coming. As will long-range weapons and jets to counter Iran. None of that will stop being delivered.
Still, it’s a big shift for Biden. It’s not been done before and symbolically for Israel, in the middle of its longest and most critical war, it looks terrible.
The domestic political risks
And that brings us to the domestic politics of all this.
For every lever of influence Mr Biden pulls (and he’s seen they have their limited use) there is a domestic political calculus.
Pretty much all Republicans are against every lever; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.
More than that though – a significant number of his own Democrats will also be uneasy about America limiting weapons for Israel.
But critical voters in key states are very pro-Palestine. President Biden isn’t oblivious to their cry “Genocide Joe!”
It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.
US president-elect Donald Trump says he has appointed British TV producer Mark Burnett as his special envoy to the UK.
Mr Burnett, 64, created and worked alongside Mr Trump on the US series, The Apprentice, which made the president-elect internationally famous for firing a succession of contestants vying for roles in his businesses.
The London-born producer has also worked on popular reality shows such as Shark Tank, The Voice, and Survivor.
In a statement, Mr Trump said: “It is my great honour to appoint Mark Burnett as the special envoy to the United Kingdom.
“With a distinguished career in television production and business, Mark brings a unique blend of diplomatic acumen and international recognition to this important role.”
Mr Trump’s first campaign in 2016 was rocked by allegations about his conduct on The Apprentice and other appearances during his association with NBC, notably in footage in which he said he could sexually assault women and get away with it because he was a “star”.
The 78-year-old president-elect went on to praise Mr Burnett for “creating and producing some of the biggest shows in Television History,” and highlight how he won 13 Emmy Awards.
Mr Burnett’s spokesperson said in a statement to Variety he was “truly honoured to serve The United States of America and President Trump as his Special Envoy to the United Kingdom”.
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Mr Burnett will work to enhance diplomatic relations, focusing on areas of mutual interest, including trade, investment opportunities, and cultural exchanges, according to the statement.
It comes after Mr Trump, who will take office following his inauguration on 20 January, nominated businessman Warren Stephens to serve as America’s ambassador to the UK.
Earlier this week, Sir Keir Starmer named Labour grandee Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
Lord Mandelson. Pic: PA
But the appointment didn’t seem to please Chris LaCivita, co-manager for Mr Trump’s presidential election campaign, who called Lord Mandelson an “absolute moron”.
In a post on X, Mr LaCivita said: “This UK govt is special replace a professional universally respected Ambo with an absolute moron – he should stay home! SAD!”
Mr Burnett is not the first of Mr Trump’s new administration appointees to have a background in TV.
The president-elect made former Fox News commentator and National Guard veteran Pete Hegseth his defence secretary and named celebrity doctor and former TV host, Mehmet Oz, as his administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
US
Trump campaign co-manager calls Lord Mandelson an ‘absolute moron’ as peer is confirmed as Starmer’s new US ambassador
The co-manager for Donald Trump’s presidential election campaign has called Lord Mandelson an “absolute moron” – as the peer was officially announced as the next UK ambassador to the US.
The Labour grandee, who served in Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s cabinets, will become the UK’s top diplomat in Washington as president-elect Trump returns to the White House in January.
In a post on X, Chris LaCivita linked to an article in The Daily Telegraph which reported on Lord Mandelson describing Mr Trump as “a danger to the world”.
The peer also described Mr Trump as “little short of a white nationalist and racist” during an interview with an Italian journalist in 2019, according to the newspaper.
In the post on X, Mr LaCivita said: “This UK govt is special replace a professional universally respected Ambo with an absolute moron – he should stay home! SAD!”
He added the headline of the piece in his post: “Mandelson described Trump as a danger to the world and ‘little short of a white nationalist’.”
It comes as Sir Keir Starmer confirmed the appointment of Lord Mandelson to the post.
The 71-year-old said: “We face challenges in Britain but also big opportunities and it will be a privilege to work with the government to land those opportunities, both for our economy and our nation’s security, and to advance our historic alliance with the United States.”
The prime minister said: “The United States is one of our most important allies and as we move into a new chapter in our friendship, Peter will bring unrivalled experience to the role and take our partnership from strength to strength.”
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Chris LaCivita, co-manager of Donald Trump’s election campaign. Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir also thanked outgoing US ambassador Dame Karen Pierce, who will leave the post at the beginning of next year.
“I would also like to thank Dame Karen Pierce for her invaluable service for the last four years, and in particular the wisdom and steadfast support she has given me personally since July,” he said.
“She made history as the first woman to serve as UK ambassador to the US and she has been an outstanding representative of our country abroad. I wish her all the very best in future.”
Lord Mandelson was one of the key architects of New Labour and helped the party return to power in the 1990s.
He served as Sir Tony’s trade secretary and Northern Ireland secretary before standing down as an MP in 2004 to become a European Commissioner.
After Mr Brown awarded him a peerage in 2008, Lord Mandelson returned to government as business secretary.
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