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Setting red lines is all very well, as long as you follow through when they are crossed. President Joe Biden knows that all too well.

But he also knows that if he follows through on this big new red line of withholding offensive weapons for Israel it could cost him dearly domestically.

The push-me-pull-you balance of geopolitics and domestic politics is intensely difficult right now for the American president.

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I’ll break this down into two parts. The politics in a moment. First the challenges of red lines.

Western leaders throw them down in interviews, like Mr Biden’s pronouncement on CNN last night, as unequivocal threats. “Cross the line, if you dare!” is the rhetoric.

But too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.

Barack Obama set a chemical weapons red line with Syria’s Bashar al Assad in 2012. He walked right through it.

Vladimir Putin remembered that when he walked through a red line Mr Biden had set on Ukraine in 2021. Mr Putin invaded. The rest is history.

Every red line is distinct, of course, and they vary in terms of the gravity of the event they are seeking to prevent.

But the principle behind laying them is the same, as is the message set when they are crossed.

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Joe Biden met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow in 2011 when he was vice president and Mr Putin was Russian prime minister. Pic: AP
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Joe Biden with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in 2011. Pic: AP

Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu

Over the past six months, as Israel has sought to defeat Hamas in Gaza, President Biden didn’t think he’d need to lay out red lines. After all, Israel is one of America’s closest allies.

Instead, the Biden administration thought gentle diplomacy and frank back-channels with a “close friend of America” would do the trick.

But gradually, as Mr Biden and the Netanyahu government increasingly diverged on protecting civilians and a plan for “the day after” in Gaza, a red line began to appear – Rafah.

This has become Mr Biden’s red line for Israel.

The American president has repeatedly made clear his opposition to Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on a ground invasion of the southern Gazan city (Mr Netanyahu’s own red line) where about 1.4 million people are living, half of them under 18.

Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city
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Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city this week. Pic: AP

The Israeli military has not (yet) moved into Rafah city but is instead concentrating its operations to the east of the city and around the crossing to Egypt.

That fact has allowed the Biden administration to claim its red line hasn’t yet been crossed. “They didn’t describe it as a major ground operation,” spokesman John Kirby said this week.

Sometimes, red lines are smashed through. Sometimes, they are gradually chipped away at.

To counter the chipping Mr Netanyahu has been doing for weeks, Mr Biden hardened his red line.

“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” he told CNN.

A significant admission

That he has personally admitted what was already a fact – that American weapons have killed thousands of civilians – is significant.

But there is important nuance in his red line.

He’s talking about stopping the delivery of offensive weapons for the type of operations that have flattened much of Gaza and could do the same to Rafah.

He is not threatening to cut Israel off from all US weapons, of course not.

Defensive weapons to counter Iranian proxy rockets will keep coming. As will long-range weapons and jets to counter Iran. None of that will stop being delivered.

Still, it’s a big shift for Biden. It’s not been done before and symbolically for Israel, in the middle of its longest and most critical war, it looks terrible.

The domestic political risks

And that brings us to the domestic politics of all this.

For every lever of influence Mr Biden pulls (and he’s seen they have their limited use) there is a domestic political calculus.

Pretty much all Republicans are against every lever; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.

More than that though – a significant number of his own Democrats will also be uneasy about America limiting weapons for Israel.

But critical voters in key states are very pro-Palestine. President Biden isn’t oblivious to their cry “Genocide Joe!”

It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.

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Donald Trump climbs down from threat to escalate trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminium

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Donald Trump climbs down from threat to escalate trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminium

Donald Trump briefly threatened to escalate his trade war with Canada by doubling his planned tariffs on its steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%.

The US president stepped back from his order after the provincial government of Ontario rowed back on a plan to charge 25% more for electricity it supplies to over 1.5 million American homes and businesses.

Canada’s most populous province provides electricity to Minnesota, New York and Michigan.

As a result, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Mr Trump would not double steel and aluminium tariffs – but the federal government still plans to place a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports from Wednesday.

Donald Trump with Elon Musk in a Tesla after he promised to buy one of the electric cars. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump with Elon Musk in a Tesla after he promised to buy one of the electric cars. Pic: Reuters

Ontario’s response

In his initial response to Mr Trump’s threat, Ontario’s premier Doug Ford said he would not back down until the US leader’s tariffs on Canadian imports were “gone for good”.

But he later suspended the change temporarily, saying “cooler heads need to prevail” and he was confident the US president would also stand down on his plans.

Meanwhile, Canada’s incoming prime minister Mark Carney said he will keep other tariffs in place until Americans “show respect” and commit to free trade.

Mr Carney called the new tariffs threatened by Mr Trump an “attack” on Canadian workers, families and businesses.

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‘Canada will win’, country’s next prime minister says

Why is Trump threatening tariffs?

A worldwide 25% tariff on steel and aluminium is due to come into effect on Wednesday as a way to kickstart US domestic production.

Separate tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada covered by a previous trade agreement (the US Mexico Canada, or USMCA deal) were delayed by a month to 2 April.

President Trump seems to bear a particular grudge against Canada because of what he sees as rampant fentanyl smuggling and high Canadian taxes on dairy imports, which penalise US farmers.

He has called for Canada to become part of the United States as its “cherished 51st state” as a solution, which has angered Canadian leaders.

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What’s the impact of US tariffs?

Economic impact

Mr Trump’s turnaround comes after markets fell in response to his threat of doubling tariffs.

The stock market has fallen over the last two weeks and Harvard University economist Larry Summers put the odds of a recession at 50-50.

“All the emphasis on tariffs and all the ambiguity and uncertainty has both chilled demand and caused prices to go up,” the former treasury secretary for the Clinton administration posted on X on Monday.

“We are getting the worst of both worlds – concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything.”

Investment bank Goldman Sachs revised down its growth forecast for this year from 2.2% to 1.7% and moderately increased its recession probability to 20% “because the White House has the option to pull back policy changes if downside risks begin to look more serious”.

Mr Trump has tried to reassure the American public that his tariffs will cause a bit of a “transition” to the economy as taxes spur more companies to begin the years-long process of relocating factories to the US to avoid tariffs.

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Trump refuses to rule out recession

Mr Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession during an interview with Fox News on Sunday, where he said: “I hate to predict things like that.”

On Tuesday, he was asked about a potential recession and said “I don’t see it at all” and claimed the US is “going to boom”.

On Monday, the S&P 500 stock index fell 2.7% and on Tuesday it was around 10% below its record set last month.

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Boy, 5, ‘incinerated’ after pressurised oxygen chamber explodes in US

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Boy, 5, 'incinerated' after pressurised oxygen chamber explodes in US

A five-year-old boy was “incinerated” when a pressurised oxygen chamber exploded at a medical facility in the US state of Michigan.

Four people have been charged over the child’s death at the Oxford Centre in Detroit, Michigan’s attorney general has said.

Thomas Cooper, from Michigan, was pronounced dead at the scene, while his mother, who was standing next to the chamber, suffered injuries to her arms when it exploded on 31 January.

“A single spark it appears ignited into a fully involved fire that claimed Thomas’s life within seconds,” attorney general Dana Nessel said at a news conference on Tuesday.

“Fires inside a hyperbaric chamber are considered a terminal event. Every such fire is almost certainly fatal and this is why many procedures and essential safety practices have been developed to keep a fire from ever occurring.”

The centre’s founder and chief executive, Tamela Peterson, has been charged with second-degree murder, according to online court records.

Facility manager Gary Marken, 65, safety manager Gary Mosteller, 64, and the hyperbaric chamber’s operator that day, Aleta Moffitt, 60, have also been charged.

Marken and Mosteller are charged with second-degree murder and involuntary manslaughter.

Moffitt is charged with involuntary manslaughter and intentionally placing false medical information on a medical records chart.

Raymond Cassar, Marken’s attorney, said the second-degree murder charge comes as “a total shock” to him and his client.

“For fairness, he is presumed innocent,” Mr Cassar said.

“This was a tragic accident and our thoughts and our prayers go out to the family of this little boy.

“I want to remind everyone that this was an accident, not an intentional act. We’re going to have to leave this up to the experts to find out what was the cause of this.”

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Sky News’ US partner network NBC News reported that according to the family’s lawyer, the boy had received multiple sessions of hyperbaric therapy for sleep apnea and ADHD.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has cleared hyperbaric chambers to be marketed as safe and effective for a list of 13 disorders, including severe burns, decompression sickness and non-healing wounds.

But the list does not include many of the other disorders advertised by the Oxford Centre – including sleep apnea and ADHD.

The FDA also recommends that consumers only use hyperbaric centres that are inspected and accredited by the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

The Oxford Centre does not appear on the society’s February 2025 list of accredited facilities.

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Rebecca Burke: Father of British backpacker being held in US says her ‘life-changing trip has turned into a nightmare’

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Rebecca Burke: Father of British backpacker being held in US says her 'life-changing trip has turned into a nightmare'

The father of a British tourist being held in the US has told Sky News “what was meant to be a life-changing trip has turned into a nightmare”.

Rebecca Burke, 28, from Monmouthshire, was attempting to cross into Canada from the US when she ended up being handcuffed and taken to a detention facility due to an issue with her visa.

Ms Burke, who has been travelling since January, had a tourist visa for her backpacking trip around North America, but her entry into Canada – where she was planning to stay with a host family in exchange for food and accommodation – was rejected.

Canadian officials said she needed a working visa and sent Ms Burke back to the US – where she was then “taken by homeland security in handcuffs to a large detention centre”, her father Paul Burke said.

She has now been held in the Tacoma Northwest facility in Washington state for 14 days.

Paul Burke and his wife with their daughter Rebecca
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Rebecca researched for months before jetting off to the US and Canada


“We thought of all the countries in the world, two of the safest for a British tourist to go to would be the USA and Canada,” Mr Burke said during an interview on Sky News Breakfast. “What was meant to be life changing for her has turned into a nightmare.”

Mr Burke and his wife have been able to speak to their daughter daily, as she can make phone calls from a shared iPad.

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They have become worried about Ms Burke’s health, as her vegan meals consist solely of cold rice and potatoes.

Paul Burke, whose daughter Rebecca is being held in a US detention centre
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Paul Burke has fears for his daughter’s health

“We spoke to her last night and she said she had to go and see the medic because she’s got digestive problems,” Ms Burke said.

“We’ve got very kind people [in Washington] who have offered to visit her. They’ve said when they visit, she’s behind a glass screen and they have to talk to her on a telephone.

“I can’t believe a British tourist is being kept in these conditions.”

Paul Burke and his wife with their daughter Rebecca
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Ms Burke has been able to trade with other women in the centre


Ms Burke – a graphic artist – has been able to trade with other women in the centre to secure fresh fruit, her dad said.

“She’s trading portraits of the other women and the other women’s kids, in return for an orange or some other food,” he said. “In terms of how the other women are treating her, it really is a band of sisters working together. They’re taking care of each other.

“They’re all trying to help each other and support each other, which is one good thing.”

Paul Burke and his wife with their daughter Rebecca
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Rebecca Burke has been told it could take another 10 days for her case to be dealt with


It is unclear when Ms Burke’s case will be dealt with by US immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials, who are “overloaded with cases” due to the US government’s blitz on immigration, her father said.

“The detention centres are being filled because of the crackdown,” Mr Burke continued. “Becky told us that her detention centre will be at capacity next week.”

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“She was told by the ICE officer, it could still be another 10 days [until her case is dealt with],” he continued. “Why can’t it be tomorrow? We just want her home.”

A Foreign Office spokesperson said: “We are supporting a British national detained in the USA and are in contact with the local authorities.”

A spokesperson for ICE said: “Rebecca Burke, 28, a citizen of the United Kingdom is detained by ICE at the Northwest ICE Processing Center related to the violation of the terms and conditions of her admission.

“All aliens in violation of U.S. immigration law may be subject to arrest, detention and if found removable by final order, removal from the United States regardless of nationality.”

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