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Setting red lines is all very well, as long as you follow through when they are crossed. President Joe Biden knows that all too well.

But he also knows that if he follows through on this big new red line of withholding offensive weapons for Israel it could cost him dearly domestically.

The push-me-pull-you balance of geopolitics and domestic politics is intensely difficult right now for the American president.

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I’ll break this down into two parts. The politics in a moment. First the challenges of red lines.

Western leaders throw them down in interviews, like Mr Biden’s pronouncement on CNN last night, as unequivocal threats. “Cross the line, if you dare!” is the rhetoric.

But too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.

Barack Obama set a chemical weapons red line with Syria’s Bashar al Assad in 2012. He walked right through it.

Vladimir Putin remembered that when he walked through a red line Mr Biden had set on Ukraine in 2021. Mr Putin invaded. The rest is history.

Every red line is distinct, of course, and they vary in terms of the gravity of the event they are seeking to prevent.

But the principle behind laying them is the same, as is the message set when they are crossed.

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Joe Biden met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow in 2011 when he was vice president and Mr Putin was Russian prime minister. Pic: AP
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Joe Biden with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in 2011. Pic: AP

Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu

Over the past six months, as Israel has sought to defeat Hamas in Gaza, President Biden didn’t think he’d need to lay out red lines. After all, Israel is one of America’s closest allies.

Instead, the Biden administration thought gentle diplomacy and frank back-channels with a “close friend of America” would do the trick.

But gradually, as Mr Biden and the Netanyahu government increasingly diverged on protecting civilians and a plan for “the day after” in Gaza, a red line began to appear – Rafah.

This has become Mr Biden’s red line for Israel.

The American president has repeatedly made clear his opposition to Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on a ground invasion of the southern Gazan city (Mr Netanyahu’s own red line) where about 1.4 million people are living, half of them under 18.

Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city
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Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city this week. Pic: AP

The Israeli military has not (yet) moved into Rafah city but is instead concentrating its operations to the east of the city and around the crossing to Egypt.

That fact has allowed the Biden administration to claim its red line hasn’t yet been crossed. “They didn’t describe it as a major ground operation,” spokesman John Kirby said this week.

Sometimes, red lines are smashed through. Sometimes, they are gradually chipped away at.

To counter the chipping Mr Netanyahu has been doing for weeks, Mr Biden hardened his red line.

“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” he told CNN.

A significant admission

That he has personally admitted what was already a fact – that American weapons have killed thousands of civilians – is significant.

But there is important nuance in his red line.

He’s talking about stopping the delivery of offensive weapons for the type of operations that have flattened much of Gaza and could do the same to Rafah.

He is not threatening to cut Israel off from all US weapons, of course not.

Defensive weapons to counter Iranian proxy rockets will keep coming. As will long-range weapons and jets to counter Iran. None of that will stop being delivered.

Still, it’s a big shift for Biden. It’s not been done before and symbolically for Israel, in the middle of its longest and most critical war, it looks terrible.

The domestic political risks

And that brings us to the domestic politics of all this.

For every lever of influence Mr Biden pulls (and he’s seen they have their limited use) there is a domestic political calculus.

Pretty much all Republicans are against every lever; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.

More than that though – a significant number of his own Democrats will also be uneasy about America limiting weapons for Israel.

But critical voters in key states are very pro-Palestine. President Biden isn’t oblivious to their cry “Genocide Joe!”

It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.

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JD Vance’s wife leads high-profile US team on Greenland visit

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JD Vance's wife leads high-profile US team on Greenland visit

A high-profile US delegation will visit Greenland this week as President Donald Trump continues to threaten to annexe the strategic Danish territory. 

Usha Vance, wife of vice-president JD Vance, will lead the delegation that includes White House national security adviser Mike Waltz and energy secretary Chris Wright. Mr Waltz and Mr Wright plan to visit the Pituffik space base, the US military base in Greenland.

The team will also watch a national dogsled race and visit historical sites.

Brian Hughes, spokesperson for the White House national security council, said the US team is “confident that this visit presents an opportunity to build on partnerships that respects Greenland’s self-determination and advances economic cooperation”.

“This is a visit to learn about Greenland, its culture, history, and people and to attend a dogsled race the United States is proud to sponsor, plain and simple,” Mr Hughes added.

Mr Trump has made the US annexation of Greenland a major talking point since taking office on 20 January.

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Greenland’s strategic location and rich mineral resources would benefit the US. It also lies along the shortest route from Europe to North America, and is vital for the US ballistic missile warning system.

The governments of both Greenland and Denmark have voiced opposition to such a move.

Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said in a written statement reacting to news of the visit that “this is something we take seriously”.

She said Denmark wants to cooperate with the US, but it should be cooperation based on “the fundamental rules of sovereignty”.

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US defence staff could face lie detector tests in probe into leaks after Musk Pentagon visit

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US defence staff could face lie detector tests in probe into leaks after Musk Pentagon visit

US defence department workers could face lie detector tests as the Pentagon investigates alleged leaks of national security information.

The department’s intelligence and law enforcement arms are carrying out the inquiry, which is the latest by Donald Trump‘s administration.

In a memo sent late on Friday, defence secretary Pete Hegseth’s chief of staff called for an investigation into “unauthorised disclosures of national security information” that could include polygraph tests.

President Donald Trump, left, and Elon Musk depart the White House on Friday 21 March 2025. Pic: AP/Mark Schiefelbein
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Donald Trump and Elon Musk met at the White House on Friday. Pic: AP

Details of the alleged leaks were not included in the memo.

Earlier in the day, Mr Trump was forced to reject reports that Elon Musk would be briefed on US military plans for fighting a hypothetical war with China.

Mr Musk, who is head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) advisory group, visited the Pentagon on Friday to talk about “efficiencies” and “innovations”, Mr Hegseth said.

Ahead of the meeting, the New York Times reported the tech billionaire would be briefed on plans for how the US would plan for a potential war with China – but this was denied by both Mr Musk and the president.

Mr Musk called the report “pure propaganda” and urged legal action against anyone leaking information.

The memo calling for an investigation said if it revealed information “identifying a party responsible for an unauthorised disclosure”, that information could be used to seek criminal prosecution.

Elon Musk and U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth laugh at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 21, 2025. Pic: REUTERS/Idrees Ali
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Elon Musk and US defence secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon. Pic: Reuters


Speaking at the White House after the meeting, Mr Trump said he did not want to show US plans for a potential war with China to anybody and hinted at Mr Musk’s potential conflict of interest.

“Elon has businesses in China, and he would be susceptible, perhaps, to that,” the president said.

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A New York Times spokesperson said leak investigations are “meant to chill communications between journalists and their sources and undermine the ability of a free press to bring out vital information that may otherwise be hidden”.

Earlier this month, homeland security secretary Kristi Noem pledged to step up lie detector tests on employees in an effort to identify those who may be leaking information about operations to the media.

While polygraph exams are typically not admissible in court proceedings, they are frequently used by federal law enforcement agencies and for national security clearances.

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Donald Trump will soon mark 100 days in power – where does his opposition stand?

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Donald Trump will soon mark 100 days in power - where does his opposition stand?

Donald Trump has not been president for a hundred days – he will pass that marker at the end of April. Already the assessments are in: this is the most disruptive and transformative start ever to a presidential term.

The United States government is being turned inside out by Elon Musk.

The New York Times reports that Trump’s “expansive interpretation of presidential power” is an attempt “to consolidate power over courts, congress and more”.

In other words, to defang the legislature and the judiciary, the two other, supposedly independent, branches of government established to act as checks and balances to presidential autarchy.

On the international stage, the White House has, in practice, given the green light to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to up their assaults on Ukraine and Gaza, while cold shouldering NATO allies.

These are big and controversial changes for which Trump claims a mandate after winning both the electoral college and the popular vote in last year’s election.

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His dramatic moves might be expected to stimulate as much passion among politicians as they are in the general public.

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Yet – perhaps because Trump is judged to be so powerful at this stage – his elected opponents at home and abroad are struggling to organise effectively against him.

A two-party fight

American politics is strictly a two-party fight. There are no significant third forces.

Politicians are either Republican or Democrat.

Outside election years when both parties have presidential nominees, there is no equivalent to a British leader of the opposition, fighting the president blow by blow.

What opposition there is to an incumbent president is led from the US Congress.

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Mr Trump signs order to dismantle education department

Currently the Democrats are in an exceptionally weak position because they are in the minority in both the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

They are routinely outvoted by the Republicans.

This month, to the disgust of many Democrats, their party leadership in the Senate passed up on a rare chance to oppose the Trump administration.

Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, and eight other Democratic senators sided with the Republicans to allow Trump’s Budget Resolution to pass.

Democrats, including Schumer, denounced the resolution because it contained massive cuts to government programmes such as housing, social security and healthcare.

But Schumer justified his last-minute change of heart because the federal government would have shut down unless the bill passed.

“A shutdown would shut down all government agencies, and it would solely be up to Trump and DOGE (department of government efficiency) and Musk what to open again, because they could determine what was essential,” he explained.

“So their goal of decimating the whole federal government, of cutting agency after agency after agency, would occur under a shutdown.”

Democrats in both Houses were furious. Texas congresswoman Jasmine Crocket said Schumer is “absolutely wrong”.

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut argued that the Democrats had aided Trump and Musk’s plan to destroy government so they can hand control over to their “billionaire friends”.

Jon Stewart, the star host of the Daily Show, said simply of Schumer “you are a disgrace”.

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TV comedians like Stewart and his former partners Stephen Colbert and John Oliver have become some of the most outspoken public critics of Trump.

They viciously mock the Democratic establishment, including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for repeatedly insisting that the MAGA “fever will break”.

Meanwhile, Schumer protests that it will not be possible to do sensible deals in Congress until Trump’s popularity rating drops to 40%.

It could be a long wait. At the moment the president stands at around 48% approval while the Democrats are at a pitiful 27%.

This is not a basis from which they can confidently expect to harvest in 2026, the backlash against the president’s party which often occurs in mid-term elections.

There is little coherence as senior Democrats mount their own freelance campaigns.

Two prominent radicals from blue states, Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are outspoken about the violations of the Constitution which they believe the administration is perpetrating.

Together they are embarking on a nationwide “Fighting Oligarchy” tour. They are joined in anger by the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker, who denounces “villainous cruelty by a handful of idiots”.

Sanders, 83, ran for the Democrat nomination in the past.

Both Ocasio-Cortez and Pritzker have been talked about as possible future runners.

Other Democrats worry that their values are too leftish and woke to win back the extra votes their party needs.

This seems to be the view shared by other potential candidates for the 2028 nomination.

Some are keeping a low profile. Pete Buttigieg has declined to run for the Senate and Kamala Harris says she will not announce any plans until the autumn.

Two governors are emerging as early hopefuls: Gavin Newsom in California and Harris’ former running mate, Tim Walz, in Minnesota.

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Newsom spotted Trump’s dominance on social media and in the manosphere of podcasting.

Newsom has adopted an “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” strategy and set up his own podcast series.

His guest list is raising eyebrows for including Trump’s outrider Steve Bannon and other prominent MAGA figures.

When he finally got his invitation, centrist dad Walz wanted to know why Newsom is promoting “bad guys”.

So the Democrats in the US are arguing with each other and still looking for a way to take on Trump beyond hoping that his popularity will drop before he has terminally destroyed the democratic system.

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Political leaders across the spectrum in Europe are privately aghast at what looks like the end of international politics as they have known it.

But they do not want to provoke Trump’s vindictive wrath by pointing out publicly that he is destroying America’s role as the lynchpin of the Western alliance.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Chancellor in waiting, Friedrich Merz, have one key asset: Trump is overwhelmingly unpopular in their countries.

This allows them to adopt a two-faced strategy – smilingly trying to salvage whatever they can from their existing links, while preparing to defend their countries with America as an unreliable ally and seemingly as an economic foe.

No one has a plan to take on Trump directly.

The best they have come up with is to hope he goes too far and destroys himself.

In so many ways that is not a safe bet. Trump’s first hundred days may yet be the least extraordinary of his term.

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