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Setting red lines is all very well, as long as you follow through when they are crossed. President Joe Biden knows that all too well.

But he also knows that if he follows through on this big new red line of withholding offensive weapons for Israel it could cost him dearly domestically.

The push-me-pull-you balance of geopolitics and domestic politics is intensely difficult right now for the American president.

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I’ll break this down into two parts. The politics in a moment. First the challenges of red lines.

Western leaders throw them down in interviews, like Mr Biden’s pronouncement on CNN last night, as unequivocal threats. “Cross the line, if you dare!” is the rhetoric.

But too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.

Barack Obama set a chemical weapons red line with Syria’s Bashar al Assad in 2012. He walked right through it.

Vladimir Putin remembered that when he walked through a red line Mr Biden had set on Ukraine in 2021. Mr Putin invaded. The rest is history.

Every red line is distinct, of course, and they vary in terms of the gravity of the event they are seeking to prevent.

But the principle behind laying them is the same, as is the message set when they are crossed.

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Joe Biden met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow in 2011 when he was vice president and Mr Putin was Russian prime minister. Pic: AP
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Joe Biden with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in 2011. Pic: AP

Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu

Over the past six months, as Israel has sought to defeat Hamas in Gaza, President Biden didn’t think he’d need to lay out red lines. After all, Israel is one of America’s closest allies.

Instead, the Biden administration thought gentle diplomacy and frank back-channels with a “close friend of America” would do the trick.

But gradually, as Mr Biden and the Netanyahu government increasingly diverged on protecting civilians and a plan for “the day after” in Gaza, a red line began to appear – Rafah.

This has become Mr Biden’s red line for Israel.

The American president has repeatedly made clear his opposition to Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on a ground invasion of the southern Gazan city (Mr Netanyahu’s own red line) where about 1.4 million people are living, half of them under 18.

Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city
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Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city this week. Pic: AP

The Israeli military has not (yet) moved into Rafah city but is instead concentrating its operations to the east of the city and around the crossing to Egypt.

That fact has allowed the Biden administration to claim its red line hasn’t yet been crossed. “They didn’t describe it as a major ground operation,” spokesman John Kirby said this week.

Sometimes, red lines are smashed through. Sometimes, they are gradually chipped away at.

To counter the chipping Mr Netanyahu has been doing for weeks, Mr Biden hardened his red line.

“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” he told CNN.

A significant admission

That he has personally admitted what was already a fact – that American weapons have killed thousands of civilians – is significant.

But there is important nuance in his red line.

He’s talking about stopping the delivery of offensive weapons for the type of operations that have flattened much of Gaza and could do the same to Rafah.

He is not threatening to cut Israel off from all US weapons, of course not.

Defensive weapons to counter Iranian proxy rockets will keep coming. As will long-range weapons and jets to counter Iran. None of that will stop being delivered.

Still, it’s a big shift for Biden. It’s not been done before and symbolically for Israel, in the middle of its longest and most critical war, it looks terrible.

The domestic political risks

And that brings us to the domestic politics of all this.

For every lever of influence Mr Biden pulls (and he’s seen they have their limited use) there is a domestic political calculus.

Pretty much all Republicans are against every lever; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.

More than that though – a significant number of his own Democrats will also be uneasy about America limiting weapons for Israel.

But critical voters in key states are very pro-Palestine. President Biden isn’t oblivious to their cry “Genocide Joe!”

It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.

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Sam Jones: US influencer who snatched baby wombat from its mother leaves Australia amid fears for animal’s health

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Sam Jones: US influencer who snatched baby wombat from its mother leaves Australia amid fears for animal's health

An American influencer who caused outrage by snatching a baby wombat from its mother has left Australia – amid concerns the “disorientated” marsupial may not have refound its parent.

Sam Jones, who describes herself as an “outdoor enthusiast and hunter”, left the country on Friday after the Australian government said it was reviewing her visa.

In a now-deleted video to her 92,000 followers on Instagram, recorded at an unknown location, Jones says: “I caught a baby wombat” as a man filming her laughs.

She returns the animal to the roadside after several seconds.

File pic: Tiffany-Jane Pe Than/iStock
Image:
File pic: Tiffany-Jane Pe Than/iStock

Now, there are concerns the baby wombat may have been left to fend for itself – and an animal welfare expert has warned it has a potentially fatal skin disease.

Yolandi Vermaak, founder of animal care charity Wombat Rescue, said separating the youngster from its mother created a risk the parent would reject her offspring.

“My biggest concern is that we didn’t actually see mum and baby getting reunited,” Ms Vermaak said.

“When she put it down, it looked disorientated. It was turned away from where the mother was last seen. So we don’t know if mum and baby actually found each other again.”

Ms Vermaak said Ms Jones should say where she left the wombat after the video showed the joey had a skin disease.

“The baby has mange and it’s a matter of time before it dies of mange, so it’s important for us to find where this happened and to get this baby and its mum treated as soon as possible,” Ms Vermaak said.

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Ms Jones’s actions drew fierce criticism from politicians. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said she had clearly caused “distress” in the marsupial’s mother and described her behaviour as “just an outrage”.

Home affairs minister Tony Burke, speaking after a government official confirmed Ms Jones had left the country voluntarily, said: “There’s never been a better day to be a baby wombat in Australia.”

Previously, he said he could not wait for “Australia to see the back of this individual”.

The wombat appears to be a common wombat, also known as a bare-nosed wombat. It is found only in Australia and is a protected marsupial.

Ms Jones, who also uses the name Samantha Strable, closed her social media channels to messages and could not be reached for comment on Friday.

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Trump trade war: Tesla warns of ‘disproportionate’ tariff impact

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Trump trade war: Tesla warns of 'disproportionate' tariff impact

Tesla, run by Donald Trump cheerleader Elon Musk, has warned US officials it risks being exposed to “disproportionate” retaliatory tariffs under the president’s escalating trade war.

The electric carmaker raised the issue in a letter to the US Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) Office on the same day Mr Trump bought a Tesla car in a show of support for his close ally after a bloodbath for the company’s shares.

Investor concerns, mostly linked to the trade war, have pushed Tesla’s market value 50% down from its December peak – a hit of roughly £800bn.

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The backlash against the trade war intensified this week when Tesla suffered its worst daily loss in five years as part of broader stock market falls on fears that US consumers and businesses are now facing the prospect of a recession.

The declines at Tesla were also linked by market analysts to domestic anger over Mr Musk‘s work in government to shrink its size through leadership of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

Tesla’s letter was one in a growing mailbag, with businesses widely complaining about the threat of rising costs and red tape.

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It was not clear who wrote the Tesla document, as it was unsigned, but it stated it was important to ensure that the Trump
administration’s efforts to address trade issues “do not inadvertently harm US companies”.

Tesla said it wanted to avoid retaliation of the type it faced in prior trade disputes, which resulted in increased
tariffs on electric vehicles imported into countries subject to US tariffs.

Canada and the EU are among nations to have responded with counter measures after US tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports came into effect this week.

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“US exporters are inherently exposed to disproportionate impacts when other countries respond to US trade actions,”
Tesla said in the letter.

“For example, past trade actions by the United States have resulted in immediate reactions by the targeted countries, including increased tariffs on EVs imported into those countries.”

Mr Trump is considering imposing significant tariffs on vehicles and parts made around the world in early April.

Such duties were initially confined to Canada and Mexico but later mostly suspended for four weeks amid complaints from US carmakers.

The president has said they will return on 2 April, alongside “reciprocal” tariffs which are widely expected to hit the European Union for the first time.

Tesla’s letter warned that protectionist policies designed to bolster US manufacturing and jobs were further harmful as “certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States”.

It called for a phased approach to allow more time to bolster supply chains.

“As a US manufacturer and exporter, Tesla encourages USTR to consider the downstream impacts of certain proposed actions taken to address unfair trade practices,” the EV maker concluded.

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The document builds on wider pressure to force a U-turn, with industry body Autos Drive America declaring this week that the tariff regime will harm production and earnings, with sales also set to face challenges as tariff costs are reflected in prices.

“Automakers cannot shift their supply chains overnight, and cost increases will inevitably lead to some combination of higher consumer prices, fewer models offered to consumers and shut-down US production lines, leading to
potential job losses across the supply chain,” it wrote.

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Mahmoud Khalil: Nearly 100 arrested in New York after Trump Tower protest in support of pro-Palestinian activist

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Mahmoud Khalil: Nearly 100 arrested in New York after Trump Tower protest in support of pro-Palestinian activist

Jewish protesters have stormed Trump Tower in the city of New York, demanding the release of a pro-Palestinian activist arrested by immigration officials.

At least 150 people poured into the building’s lobby in midtown Manhattan to demonstrate against the detention of Mahmoud Khalil, who led Columbia University protests in 2024 against Israel’s war in Gaza.

The group from Jewish Voice for Peace carried banners, wore red shirts reading “Jews say stop arming Israel” and chanted “Bring Mahmoud home now!”

Local police said 98 were arrested on charges including trespassing, obstruction and resisting arrest.

New York Police officers arrest a demonstrator from the group, Jewish Voice for Peace, who protested inside Trump Tower in support of Columbia graduate student Mahmoud Khalil, Thursday, March 13, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
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Charges included trespassing, obstruction and resisting arrest. Pic: AP

Demonstrators from the group, Jewish Voice for Peace, protest inside Trump Tower in support of Columbia graduate student Mahmoud Khalil, Thursday, March 13, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
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Demonstrators from Jewish Voice for Peace protested inside Trump Tower. Pic: AP

Donald Trump previously described Mr Khalil, 30, who has lawful permanent resident status in the US, as “anti-American”. He is married to an American citizen.

The postgraduate student, from Columbia University’s school of international and public affairs, has been a prominent figure in the university’s pro-Palestinian student protest movement.

Police officers detain protesters during a rally against the ICE detention of Palestinian activist and Columbia University graduate student Mahmoud Khalil, at Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon
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Local police said they detained 98 people. Pic: Reuters

This week, his deportation was put on hold while his lawyers challenged his detention at an immigration detention centre in Louisiana. On Saturday, he was arrested outside his university residence in Upper Manhattan.

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He has not been charged with a crime.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has claimed he has reasonable grounds to believe Mr Khalil’s activities or presence in the country could have “serious adverse foreign policy consequences”.

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Student activist Mahmoud Khalil arrested in Trump crackdown

On Thursday, Mr Khalil’s lawyers asked a federal judge to release him from immigration detention.

They argued that President Trump’s administration targeted him for deportation because of his activism, and his detention is a violation of the US Constitution’s First Amendment protections for freedom of speech.

Mahmoud Khalil: An American tolerance test

There’s more to this story than the story itself.

In Donald Trump’s USA, the proceedings against Mahmoud Khalil are an American tolerance test.

At the heart of it is the US Constitution itself and the First Amendment that enshrines the right to free speech.

Mahmoud Khalil is the measure of where it starts and where it ends – the fate of others will turn on his test case.

As President Trump put it, his arrest is the first of “many to come”, citing students who had “engaged in pro-terrorist, antisemitic, anti-American activity”.

Read more from James here.

Separately, his lawyers asked the court to block Columbia University from sharing student disciplinary records from campus protests with a Republican-led US House of Representatives committee.

Mr Khalil’s case has become a flashpoint for Mr Trump’s pledge to deport some activists who participated in the wave of protests on US college campuses against Israel’s military assault on Gaza following the October 2023 attack by the militant group Hamas.

FILE - Members of the Columbia University Apartheid Divest group, including Sueda Polat, second from left, and Mahmoud Khalil, center, are surrounded by members of the media outside the Columbia University campus, Tuesday, April 30, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
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Mahmoud Khalil outside the Columbia University campus in April 2024. File pic: AP

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Mr Trump’s administration has said pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses, including at Columbia, have included support for Hamas and antisemitic harassment of Jewish students.

Last week, the administration said it cancelled grants and contracts worth about $400m (£309m) to Columbia because of what it describes as antisemitic harassment on and near the school’s campus.

Student protest organisers have said criticism of Israel and its actions is being wrongly conflated with antisemitism.

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