Rafah red line: The push-me-pull-you geopolitical balance is intensely difficult for Biden right now
Setting red lines is all very well, as long as you follow through when they are crossed. President Joe Biden knows that all too well.
But he also knows that if he follows through on this big new red line of withholding offensive weapons for Israel it could cost him dearly domestically.
The push-me-pull-you balance of geopolitics and domestic politics is intensely difficult right now for the American president.
Gaza latest: Follow live updates
I’ll break this down into two parts. The politics in a moment. First the challenges of red lines.
Western leaders throw them down in interviews, like Mr Biden’s pronouncement on CNN last night, as unequivocal threats. “Cross the line, if you dare!” is the rhetoric.
But too often they turn out to be flawed tools of geo-political diplomacy.
Barack Obama set a chemical weapons red line with Syria’s Bashar al Assad in 2012. He walked right through it.
Vladimir Putin remembered that when he walked through a red line Mr Biden had set on Ukraine in 2021. Mr Putin invaded. The rest is history.
Every red line is distinct, of course, and they vary in terms of the gravity of the event they are seeking to prevent.
But the principle behind laying them is the same, as is the message set when they are crossed.
Read more:
Israeli hostages’ families urge Netanyahu to accept deal
Israel claims control of key Rafah crossing
Joe Biden with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in 2011. Pic: AP
Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu
Over the past six months, as Israel has sought to defeat Hamas in Gaza, President Biden didn’t think he’d need to lay out red lines. After all, Israel is one of America’s closest allies.
Instead, the Biden administration thought gentle diplomacy and frank back-channels with a “close friend of America” would do the trick.
But gradually, as Mr Biden and the Netanyahu government increasingly diverged on protecting civilians and a plan for “the day after” in Gaza, a red line began to appear – Rafah.
This has become Mr Biden’s red line for Israel.
The American president has repeatedly made clear his opposition to Mr Netanyahu’s insistence on a ground invasion of the southern Gazan city (Mr Netanyahu’s own red line) where about 1.4 million people are living, half of them under 18.
Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city this week. Pic: AP
The Israeli military has not (yet) moved into Rafah city but is instead concentrating its operations to the east of the city and around the crossing to Egypt.
That fact has allowed the Biden administration to claim its red line hasn’t yet been crossed. “They didn’t describe it as a major ground operation,” spokesman John Kirby said this week.
Sometimes, red lines are smashed through. Sometimes, they are gradually chipped away at.
To counter the chipping Mr Netanyahu has been doing for weeks, Mr Biden hardened his red line.
“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” he told CNN.
A significant admission
That he has personally admitted what was already a fact – that American weapons have killed thousands of civilians – is significant.
But there is important nuance in his red line.
He’s talking about stopping the delivery of offensive weapons for the type of operations that have flattened much of Gaza and could do the same to Rafah.
He is not threatening to cut Israel off from all US weapons, of course not.
Defensive weapons to counter Iranian proxy rockets will keep coming. As will long-range weapons and jets to counter Iran. None of that will stop being delivered.
Still, it’s a big shift for Biden. It’s not been done before and symbolically for Israel, in the middle of its longest and most critical war, it looks terrible.
The domestic political risks
And that brings us to the domestic politics of all this.
For every lever of influence Mr Biden pulls (and he’s seen they have their limited use) there is a domestic political calculus.
Pretty much all Republicans are against every lever; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.
More than that though – a significant number of his own Democrats will also be uneasy about America limiting weapons for Israel.
But critical voters in key states are very pro-Palestine. President Biden isn’t oblivious to their cry “Genocide Joe!”
It is a perilous political push-me-pull-you and the election is six months away.
Vladimir Putin has visited Kursk for the first time since his troops ejected Ukrainian forces from the Russian city.
The Russian president met with volunteer organisations and visited a nuclear power plant in the region on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Mr Putin said late last month that his forces had ejected Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, which ended the largest incursion into Russian territory since the Second World War.
Vladimir Putin during his visit in the Kursk region on Tuesday. Pic: Kremlin News/Telegram
Mr Putin visited a nuclear power plant. Pic: Kremlin.ru/Reuters
Ukraine launched its attack in August last year, using swarms of drones and heavy Western weaponry to smash through the Russian border, controlling nearly 540sq m (5,813sq ft) of Kursk at the height of the incursion.
More than 159 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian territory, Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday.
The majority were over Russia’s western regions, but at least six drones were shot down over the densely populated Moscow region, the ministry added.
The visit in the Kursk region comes as a Russian missile attack killed six soldiers and injured 10 more during training in the Sumy region of Ukraine, according to the country’s national guard.
The commander of the unit has been suspended and an internal investigation has been launched.
The Russian president met with volunteer organisations. Pic: Kremlin News/Telegram
Russia’s defence ministry claimed the attack on the training camp in northeastern Ukraine killed up to 70 Ukrainian servicemen, including 20 instructors.
The attack comes after US President Donald Trump spoke to both Mr Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, urging them to restart ceasefire talks.
Read more from Sky News:
Fresh UK and EU sanctions on Russia announced
British doctor in Gaza describes horror
But German defence minister Boris Pistorius said on Wednesday that Mr Trump misjudged his influence on Mr Putin after the call between the American and Russian leaders yielded no progress in Ukraine peace talks.
Europe has since announced new sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. Mr Pistorius said it remained to be seen whether the US would join those measures.
Three people have died after severe thunderstorms caused flooding in the Var region of southeastern France, according to reports.
The rain has also caused widespread damage as Meteo-France, the country’s national weather agency, placed the region under an orange alert for rain, flooding and thunderstorms, French broadcaster BFM TV reported.
Two of those who died were an elderly couple who were in their car as it was swept away by floodwaters in the seaside town of Le Lavandou, France 24 reported.
Meanwhile, the gendarmerie said around 2.30pm local time (1:30pm UK time) that a person had been found drowned in their vehicle in the commune of Vidauban.
Le Lavandou and the commune of Bormes-les-Mimosas were particularly hard hit by the storms.
Gil Bernardi, mayor of Le Lavandou, said during a press conference: “The roads, the bridges, the paving stones, there is no more electricity, water, or wastewater treatment plant. The shock is significant because the phenomenon is truly violent and incomprehensible.
“As we speak, an entire part of the commune is inaccessible.”
Power and water outages were also reported in the town of Cavaliere where 250mm of rain fell in the space of one hour.
A parking lot collapsed in the town, and dozens of people were rescued, according to the authorities.
Around 200 firefighters and 35 gendarmes have reportedly been responding to the floods in Var.
Meteo-France had recorded cumulative rainfall exceeding 10cm as of 10am local time.
Japan’s agriculture minister has resigned after saying he has “never had to buy rice” while the country struggles with shortages and rising costs of its staple grain.
Taku Eto offered his resignation to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Wednesday after he made the comments at a party seminar on Sunday.
Mr Eto said his supporters have always gifted him rice, meaning he does not have to buy it himself.
His comments immediately sparked a public backlash.
“I made an extremely inappropriate remark at a time when consumers are struggling with soaring rice prices,” Mr Eto told reporters after handing in his resignation at the prime minister’s office.
He told the Kyodo news agency: “I asked myself whether it is appropriate for me to stay at the helm [of the agriculture ministry] at a critical time for rice prices, and I concluded that it is not.
“Once again, I apologise to people for making extremely inappropriate comments as minister when they are struggling with surging rice prices.”
Opposition parties had threatened to submit a no-confidence motion against him if Mr Eto did not resign voluntarily by Wednesday afternoon.
Japan has been struggling with rice shortages since hot weather resulted in a poor harvest in 2023.
The Japanese government’s emergency rice reserves in Saitama Prefecture in March. Pic: AP
More recently, a government preparedness warning ahead of a major earthquake last August prompted panic buying – squeezing supplies even further.
Politicians have also blamed the rising cost of fertiliser and other related goods.
The crisis has seen the government release vast quantities of rice from its emergency stockpiles for the first time.
In April, Japan also imported the grain from South Korea for the first time in 25 years in a further bid to boost supplies and lower prices.
But shelf prices have continued to rise, reaching 4,268 yen (£22) per 5kg in the week to 11 May – double what it was a year ago.
Read more from Sky News
Three dead and two missing in floods
What aid has entered Gaza and where is it going?
Part of sunken superyacht brought to surface
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Mr Eto has been replaced by Shinjiro Koizumi, a former environment minister who ran unsuccessfully against the prime minister for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership last year.
The rice crisis is placing further strain on Mr Ishiba’s minority government – ahead of the country’s upcoming elections in July.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway