Passan: Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
OVER THE WINTER, as the Pittsburgh Pirates considered how to unleash the best pitching prospect in a generation on the baseball world, they landed on a plan with which they felt entirely comfortable and positively uncomfortable. No matter how well-thought-out the steps, how sound the logic, how reasoned the process, the success of a pitcher hangs in the balance. Even if a team does everything right, it still can go very, very wrong.
For the last month, Paul Skenes, the subject of all the planning, has carved up Triple-A hitting. His long-awaited debut in Pittsburgh is imminent, with the Pirates announcing he will start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs, and Skenes will arrive with a bullet train full of hype. He went to the Pirates with the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, the deepest in recent memory. He is capable of doing things with a baseball unlike any man before him: No starter in the big leagues ever has thrown as consistently hard as Skenes.
None of that hoopla factored into Pittsburgh’s approach to his 2024 season, but the alarming rate at which it has watched the game’s best pitchers hit the injured list certainly did. The Pirates didn’t want to rush the right-hander — and they didn’t want to hold him back, either. They loved everything about him — except for all of the things they couldn’t know. They drew a roadmap they hoped would bring out the best in him — and acknowledged they had no clue whether it would succeed.
“I don’t claim that we have any sort of scientific master formula for how we’re doing this,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “I don’t know for sure that this plan is right. I can’t say that.”
If we judge Skenes’ success on outcome over process, all has gone according to plan. Skenes has been everything he’s supposed to be: 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds of dominance, with an average fastball of 100 mph and four other pitches with which he befuddles hitters. Less than a year out from a College World Series appearance, he has a 0.99 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 27⅓ innings for Triple-A Indianapolis this season.
The Pirates, though, understand that results-oriented analyses are inherently flawed. And while they found no comfort in managing the future face of their franchise with what amounts to an educated guess, they were able to take solace in at least one thing: When it comes to following a plan, Skenes has plenty of experience.
WHEN HE ARRIVED at the Air Force Academy in 2021, Skenes did not appear on any list to be the next great major league pitcher for a good reason: He was a catcher. As a freshman, he hit .410/.486/.697 with 32 extra-base hits in 188 at-bats. He was also the Falcons’ closer, notching 11 saves and showing enough acumen to go full Ohtani as a sophomore, starting 15 games on the mound and spending the rest of the time behind the plate.
Schools around the country took notice. Skenes entered the transfer portal and drew widespread interest. While some teams wanted him as a two-way player, LSU recruited him strictly to pitch. It appealed to Skenes, as did the Tigers’ pitching coach, Wes Johnson, who had parlayed a successful college coaching career into the Minnesota Twins’ major league pitching coach job before returning to the amateur ranks with LSU.
“He knew what he needed to do, but he didn’t know how. He was hunting the how,” Johnson said. “We got in there, and from his diet to learning a slider, we helped him figure that out.”
Deeply thoughtful and impressively methodical, Skenes gobbled up the knowledge offered by Johnson — in some cases literally. Typically, a pitcher throwing with the force of Skenes burns about 5,000 calories a game. To combat the energy drain of pitching, Johnson suggested Skenes supplement his diet with shots of honey.
“Paul would go through half a bear a game,” Johnson said.
Skenes needed the pick-me-up to execute what he was trying to pull off: surviving a jump from the Mountain West Conference to the SEC, the best college baseball conference in the country. Even more important than his dietary changes — which allowed him to maintain his weight during the season, a rarity — were the efforts to help Skenes start throwing an effective breaking ball. He had thrived at Air Force with a fastball-changeup combination, but SEC hitters would pummel him without an effective spinner. He spent the winter working with Johnson on a slider, and scouts who went to see Skenes in Baton Rouge emerged suggesting something that once seemed inconceivable: He might be good enough to steal the top spot in the amateur draft from his teammate, outfielder Dylan Crews.
Skenes spent the coming spring proving those scouts prophetic. Over 19 starts, he threw 122⅔ innings and struck out 209 against 20 walks. In less than two years, he had become the most polished pitching prospect in a decade. All season, Skenes balanced otherworldly performance with an insatiable desire to learn more. Even as the slider emerged as an elite pitch, Skenes, after one particular start, told Johnson that while it was good enough to get out college hitters, it wouldn’t have played in the big leagues.
“He’s not hard on himself,” said Johnson, now the head coach at the University of Georgia. “He’s just really good at self-evaluation.”
At one point during the season that would end with Skenes winning the College World Series’ Most Outstanding Player for the national champion Tigers, he asked to meet with Johnson to assess his progress. During the conversation, Johnson said, Skenes seemed to finally realize what would soon become clear to anyone watching him.
“I don’t mean this to be arrogant,” Skenes said. “I think the only way I get beat is when I beat myself.”
To make that harder to do, he picked up a few other pitches at LSU to complement his fastball and slider. To capitalize on his velocity, Skenes toyed around with a splinker — a hybrid of a splitter and a sinker — thrown by only one other pitcher, Twins closer Jhoan Duran. With his newfound feel for spin, he developed a curveball, too. While neither pitch fully formed in college, he kept working at them.
“What we’re seeing, more than anything, is a remarkable desire to be very honest with information, very honest with feedback and very fast to adjust,” Cherington said. “I hate making comps. This is not a great comp because it’s not the same type of player. But I’ve told people I believe Mookie Betts is the best practice player I’ve ever been around. Yes, he’s talented, but specifically because he’s so open to the truth and has such a comfortable relationship with, ‘Oh, I’m not doing that well enough? Great. Give it to me so I can do something about it.’
“It sounds so simple, but it’s very hard for people to do that. And we see some of that in Paul. Different players, different personalities, different people. But that relationship with the feedback he’s getting about what his pitches are doing, what his delivery is doing, this is the target of where they want it to be. Those adjustments happen quickly.”
FOR THE BETTER part of a decade, the Pirates have lived among the dregs of Major League Baseball. They are terminally parsimonious, running a bottom-five Opening Day payroll for the past seven seasons. Since Cherington took over as GM in November 2019, they’ve made organizational strides but never finished higher than fourth place in the National League Central division.
To win the inaugural draft lottery in 2022, then, was a gift for an organization that last made the postseason in 2015. On July 9, 2023, the Pirates chose Skenes over Crews and Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford with the first pick in the draft. After signing for a record $9.2 million bonus, Skenes threw 6⅔ innings over five Low-A appearances that summer. They were glorified bullpen sessions following the grind of the college season, more an opportunity for Skenes to familiarize himself with the organization and vice versa.
The real work started last winter. The Pirates recognized that Skenes could have pitched effectively in the major leagues the day he was drafted, but they wondered whether sending him there to start the 2024 season would be best for his long-term development. Before it could figure out how best to deploy Skenes, the Pirates’ front office needed to answer a question: What are we trying to accomplish?
“We took him 1-1. We really, really think highly of him,” Cherington said. “We’re placing a very strong bet on him and have believed since the day we drafted him that he’s going to be a really good major league starting pitcher. But pitching is hard to predict a week from now, let alone a year from now.”
What Pittsburgh landed on attempted to balance the future and the now. A drastic increase over his 122 innings from last year spooked the Pirates, even, as Cherington admits, “there’s an arbitrariness in that.” Starting Skenes in the major leagues while throttling him could cause undue strain on the team’s bullpen.
By sending Skenes to the minor leagues, the Pirates reasoned, they could see firsthand how he best operates and what he needs. He could introduce his splinker and curveball in an environment likelier to build confidence in the pitches. He could check a number of boxes progressively: efficiency in his early starts with limited pitch counts, game-planning as he was allowed to go through a lineup multiple times and stamina as he transitioned from five days’ rest to the standard four in the major leagues. All while keeping his minor league innings totals low so they don’t have to shut him down before the end of the season.
“We’d rather have the majority of the volume available to him be in the major leagues and not the minor leagues,” Cherington said. “Managing the volume progression early so it’s building more slowly than an established major league starter’s would, but in a way where we’re not using an unnecessary number of innings in the minor leagues.”
The plan made sense to Skenes. He’s 21 years old. As tantalizing as pitching in the major leagues is, he’s also patient enough to recognize the value of slow-playing his first full professional season. At the same time, because of the Pirates’ miserly ways and general ineffectiveness — they currently are in third place in the NL Central at 17-21 — the less-charitable read on the decision was that the team was manipulating Skenes’ service time. By keeping Skenes in the minor leagues until May 11, when he’ll officially be called up for his debut, he will reach free agency after the 2030 season instead of 2029.
“I really don’t believe it’s played any role in this case. I really mean this,” Cherington said. “We decided in spring training that … we wanted to build the volume more slowly than an established major league starter would. Once we made that decision, functionally, it has to start in the minor leagues.”
FROM THE MOMENT he started in Triple-A Indianapolis, it was evident Skenes did not belong there. In his first outing, he struck out five hitters in three perfect innings. He allowed two baserunners in his next start with six punchouts. He K’d eight hitters in each of his next two games, both with 3⅓ scoreless innings. He allowed his first run in his fifth start, then stretched out in his sixth with six shutout innings on 75 pitches. At this point, every box is checked.
“Seriously, when I say he’s pretty good, it’s different. I ain’t being dramatic,” said reliever Brent Honeywell, who was with the Padres and White Sox last season and played in Indianapolis with Skenes this season. “It’s like, oh, he throws hard, he throws hard, he throws hard. Yeah, that s—‘s cool and all, but the kid can flat-out pitch. Pitch. That dude paints. He throws it where it’s intended to go, and I think it’s the biggest thing that Paul Skenes does. He’s got a cool fastball. His heater’s really good. But that dude throws the ball where it’s supposed to go.”
Honeywell is right. It’s not just the fastball, which Skenes has thrown 46.9% of the time at an average of 100 mph on the dot. The splinker is a weapon, generating swings and misses 21% of the time as it sizzles up to 97 mph. Batters are hitting .158 against the slider. Five of the 11 curveballs Skenes has thrown have been on the first pitch, a surprise for anyone who dares sit fastball.
“The great ones have this ability to stretch their mind to these uncomfortable levels,” Johnson said. “That’s why they don’t give away at-bats. That’s how they don’t take pitches off. Paul already has that side of him. The Pirates knew what they were getting with the talent and body and raw numbers. But he’s so advanced on that kind of stuff.”
Knowing that their time with him was nearing its end, Skenes’ teammates in Indianapolis tried to enjoy the remaining moments. They’ll miss his outlandish performances, sure, but also his baseball knowledge and sense of humor. Grant Koch, who caught the majority of Skenes’ starts, had a running joke on days he didn’t play. If a reliever needed to warm up, Koch would toss Skenes his catcher’s mitt and say, within earshot of the coaching staff: “Hey, Paul, go grab him for me real quick. I’ve got to go to the bathroom.” The response, Koch said, from the coaches: “No, no, no, no.”
“When you’re around people that are great and special at what they do, you learn a lot being around them,” Koch said. “Pitching and game-planning-wise. Routine stuff. He takes his work very seriously. Hopefully I’ve made him comfortable and helped him in a way. But I’m appreciative of the time. It’s been a cool experience.”
Not just for a player like Koch who has yet to make the big leagues but one like Honeywell who’s angling to return. Six years ago, Honeywell was regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball, universally ranked among the game’s 15 best. Though arm injuries waylaid Honeywell’s ascent, he emerged with the sort of perspective that few understand.
Everyone, Honeywell said, will want to get a hit off Skenes’ fastball — “just to tell their friends they did it.” And in the major leagues, where 29 pitchers this season have thrown 100 mph-plus fastballs, velocity doesn’t play quite the same. It’s necessary, he said, for Skenes to remember that as good as the fastball is, he’s far more than one impressive pitch.
“He knows where he is going,” Honeywell said. “He knows where he is headed. He knows what his job’s supposed to be. He goes about his business the right way. The kid just wants to pitch. And I think the kid was made to pitch.”
ONE NEED ONLY consider the careers of previous pitching phenoms Mark Prior and Stephen Strasburg to see how wrong things can go for even seemingly the safest of pitching prospects.
In 2002, Prior blew through the minor leagues in 51 innings and threw another 116⅔ that season. He jumped to 211⅓ innings the next year and at 22 years old looked like baseball’s next great ace. Arm injuries derailed his career. He threw his last big league pitch at 25.
In 2010, Strasburg was even better than Prior in 55⅓ minor league innings and threw another 68 before he tore his ulnar collateral ligament and needed Tommy John surgery. He returned in late 2011 for five starts and cruised through 159⅓ innings in 2012 before the Nationals shut him down three weeks before the postseason. On-and-off injuries limited him for the remainder of his career, and he threw his last meaningful pitch at 31.
Now it’s Skenes’ turn. And it comes at a trying time for pitchers, when for all of the gains the sport has seen in maximizing pitching performance and velocity, keeping elite arms healthy remains a high-stakes crapshoot.
“The pitching ecosystem knows so much about how to optimize: the body, the delivery, the way the arm works, how fast guys move, creating force,” Cherington said. “What hasn’t changed is the way the elbow and shoulder are built when you’re born. We have way more data. We should be way more precise about what’s going on.”
It will be years before the Pirates know if the plan worked. And even if it does — if Skenes stays healthy and turns into the next great ace — the line from plan to success is neither clear nor causative.
As scary as the prospect of Skenes improving on the fly might be for the rest of the NL Central, it’s what the Pirates need. Already this year they’ve added a hypertalented, hard-throwing, right-handed rookie to their rotation in Jared Jones. Pairing him with Skenes and right-hander Mitch Keller gives Pittsburgh the sort of starting staff that could be the envy of baseball sooner rather than later and perhaps convince owner Bob Nutting to push the Pirates’ payroll past $100 million for the first time.
Cherington avoids getting too far ahead of himself. He tries not to stress about the list of high-velocity pitchers and arm injuries. Shohei Ohtani isn’t pitching this season because of reconstructive elbow surgery. Nor are Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez. Gerrit Cole and Jesus Luzardo are out with elbow injuries, Grayson Rodriguez and Bobby Miller on the shelf with shoulder issues. That’s nine of the 10 hardest-throwing starters in 2023 — a spot Skenes and Jones are certain to fill in their absence.
“We don’t know exactly the right way to manage it,” Cherington said. “We don’t. We want to win games, and they give us a chance to make that happen. In most cases, we’d really like to have models that really inform our decisions. And then humans can stress those models and push them left and right. In this case, we don’t have a model telling us.”
Ahead they forge nevertheless, unclear if their plan was right, praying things don’t go wrong. Such is life in modern baseball, where you never know. You simply hope.
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Dave Wilson
BATON ROUGE, La. — Lane Kiffin was introduced as new coach at LSU on Monday, promising to restore it to a place as “the best program in all of college football,” while detailing what he said was an excruciating decision to leave Ole Miss.
His arrival marked the end of a months-long saga in which Kiffin was the subject of rival coaching searches by Florida and LSU while Ole Miss tried to retain him. He leaves Oxford amid a historic season in which the Rebels are 11-1 and No. 7 in the College Football Playoff ranking.
Kiffin said the “last 48 hours, in a lot of ways, sucked,” saying he understood the passion of furious Ole Miss fans who were at the airport as he departed. He said he informed Ole Miss administrators on Saturday night that he was going to take the LSU job, and continued a conversation in earnest through Sunday trying to figure out a solution to how he could continue to coach the Rebels in what he called the “most historic sporting event in the history of the state of Mississippi, a home playoff game.
“There was no way to possibly do it, in my opinion, any better than we did from a timing standpoint,” Kiffin said.
Eventually Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter made the decision that he would not coach the Rebels in the future, which Kiffin said was a decision he respected. He said Carter told him that while it may make sense make sense to everybody outside the program to keep the staff together for the playoffs, he’s the one that has to live in Oxford going forward after Kiffin is gone.
LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry called Kiffin “a big enough personality to operate in a state of big personalities,” and said LSU had no issues with Kiffin continuing to coach Ole Miss. But, he said, the reality is that there’s no rule like in the NFL where teams can’t contact coaches until the season is over.
“That’s not our fault,” Ausberry said. “It was a hand we were dealt, and we had to deal with it, and I had to protect LSU’s interests. I have great friends at all those other institutions in the SEC, but this is about doing what’s right for LSU.”
So Kiffin departed Oxford immediately for Baton Rouge. He arrived, drove by Tiger Stadium, a place he had coached many times, saw it lit up, and said he felt “the power of the place.”
“I called one person. I called Ed Orgeron,” Kiffin said, of his longtime friend and colleague who won a national title as the head coach at LSU in 2019. “I said, ‘hey, man, all I can do … This place just makes me want to talk like you right now.'”
Kiffin’s first 24 hours included a phone call with Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who took a front-and-center approach to LSU’s coaching situation, which led to the departure of former athletic director Scott Woodward. Kiffin called the call “unique,” with a smile and said, “I could feel his passion and energy in that call for the state of Louisiana and for LSU football.”
Kiffin has a 117-53 record in 14 years as a college head coach at Tennessee, USC, Florida Atlantic and Ole Miss, including seven 10-win seasons. He’s also been a part of five of the most infamous exits in football history: Al Davis detailing his shortcomings on an overhead projector in Oakland, leaving after one year at Tennessee for the USC job, then being fired on the tarmac at USC, followed by Nick Saban dismissing him a week before a national championship game at Alabama, and now leaving Ole Miss for Baton Rouge before the playoff.
He said he did not get emotional by the reaction by fans, including, he said, fans who tried to run him off the road while driving with his son Knox in the car, saying that’s life in the SEC.
“I think that people get really upset when you leave somewhere, because they feel hurt because you’re doing a really good job,” Kiffin said. “They ain’t going to the airport and driving from all over to say those things and yell those things and try to run you off the road if you were doing bad.”
Kiffin credited his three biggest mentors, all of whom he considered among the greatest defensive minds in football: Monte Kiffin, Pete Carroll and Nick Saban. He credited Carroll, who he said promised his late father he’d look after Lane, for encouraging him to make the leap. He hinted that Saban, too, had nudged him as well.
“Coach Saban coached at another place in this conference, so I can’t really say exactly what he said,” Kiffin said, to laughs from the crowd. “But I’ll say, I think the world of Coach Saban, and I respect him. And so there’s a reason we’re here.”
He said his first task is wrapping up the Tigers’ recruiting class with the early signing period beginning Wednesday through Friday. Kiffin said Frank Wilson will continue to serve as the interim head coach for LSU’s impending bowl game, but did not have any further clarity on staff positions.
Kiffin agreed to a seven-year contract with LSU on Sunday that will pay him $13 million annually, including a provision where he will receive the same CFP bonus structure from LSU that he would received at Ole Miss, including $150,000 for the Rebels’ participation in a first-round CFP game, up to $250,000 for a quarterfinal appearance and another $1 million if Ole Miss wins the national championship.
He said on Monday that he was not aware of his contract terms, saying he never asks his agent, Jimmy Sexton, but rather is more concerned with what the financial resources are to build the program, including NIL for players. He said the plan he heard from LSU proved that this was the best job in football.
“When you take the history, tradition, passion and the great players in the state of Louisiana, no one can argue that when you’re in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night, there is nothing like it,” Kiffin said. “This place is built for championships with championship expectations — we understand that — but as an elite competitor that’s exactly what you want and that’s why we’re here.”
Lane Kiffin was understandably the story of the Egg Bowl, but the coach’s prolonged employment decision didn’t really qualify as surprising for those who have followed his career.
You know who was a surprise? Trinidad Chambliss. Did anyone outside of Oxford, Mississippi, or Big Rapids, Michigan, where Chambliss starred for Division II Ferris State before transferring to Ole Miss, know the quarterback’s name entering the season?
Chambliss, who replaced injured starter Austin Simmons in September and never looked back, became one of the season’s most delightful surprises. He again displayed his talent and poise in the Egg Bowl, recording season highs for passing yards (359) and touchdowns (4) in Ole Miss’ 38-19 win over rival Mississippi State. Chambliss finished the regular season with 3,016 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, to go along with 470 rushing yards and six scores.
There were other surprises on display over the weekend, from Oklahoma’s resurgent defense under coach Brent Venables, to Ohio State experiencing no drop-off under first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin, to BYU improving to 11-1 behind its own young quarterback Bear Bachmeier, to Indiana being even more dominant than it was under coach Curt Cignetti in 2024.
As the regular season wraps up, here’s a look at the latest Power Rankings and the biggest surprises among the top 25 teams. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 1
Arvell Reese was merely a backup rotation player for the Buckeyes last season. This season, the edge rusher/linebacker has become a superstar. With 59 tackles and 6.5 sacks, Reese has wrecked opposing offenses. He’s in line to earn All-America honors — and suddenly is a virtual lock to go high in the first round of the next NFL draft. Ohio State boasted the No. 1 statistical defense last season on the way to winning the national championship. This season, its defense is even better — and Reese’s emergence is a major reason why. With Saturday’s 27-9 win at Michigan, Ohio State has become the first team since Florida’s 1975 team to give up 16 or fewer points in each of its first 12 games, according to ESPN Research. With Reese joining fellow linebacker Sonny Styles, defensive end Caden Curry and reigning All-America safety Caleb Downs, the talented Buckeyes have a championship-caliber unit again. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 2
The most surprising thing about coach Curt Cignetti’s second season at IU is how much it resembled the first, only even more dominant. Indiana went from its first 11-win season in 2024 to its first 12-win season in 2025, despite facing tougher conference competition, and recorded eight wins by 24 points or more while scoring 55 or more points six times, including Friday’s 56-3 shellacking of rival Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket game.
The Hoosiers rushed for 355 yards and five touchdowns against Purdue, displaying a run game that has elevated substantially. IU averaged 229.8 rushing yards during the regular season, up from 165.1 in 2024, as a deeper group of running backs and offensive linemen pummeled opponents. Though the Hoosiers elevated their run game, they maintained their stifling defense against the run, giving up only 951 yards in 12 games. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 4
Gunner Stockton, for all his talents, seems almost required to be underappreciated. His rise to QB1 this offseason was considered something of a risky bet, particularly after Georgia’s early exit from the playoff following Carson Beck‘s injury last season. Stockton is soft-spoken and reserved, and even his best games tend to be overshadowed by other performances. And yet, to look back on Georgia’s 11-1 season in 2025, it’s impossible to say anyone has made a bigger impact than Stockton. It hasn’t always been pretty — that’s part of the experience, really — but it has always been gritty and resilient and, at times, exhilarating. Stockton wraps the regular season with nearly 3,000 total yards, 28 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions, numbers that largely mirrored Beck’s 2024 season, only with fewer costly mistakes. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 7
Though there was a ton of internal optimism about what Texas Tech could achieve on defense in 2025 with the arrival of coordinator Shiel Wood and 10 high-profile transfer portal additions, it has never seen anything like this in Lubbock. The 11-1 Red Raiders’ 49-0 shutout of West Virginia on Saturday closed out a historic regular season for this unit. Texas Tech has the No. 3 scoring defense in FBS at 11.25 points per game, which ranks second best in Big 12 history behind the 2009 Nebraska defense powered by Ndamukong Suh. Tech gave up only 100 total points in Big 12 conference play, the fewest by a defense since 2003 when the Big 12 played eight conference games. Now it’s time for a rematch with BYU and an offense it shut out for 3½ quarters on Nov. 8. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 5
The Ducks handled what was a tricky trip to end the season to Seattle with the proper amount of focus; they never trailed and beat rival Washington 26-14 to end their third straight season with at least 11 wins under Dan Lanning. Though it won’t be defending its Big Ten title from last season, Oregon heads into the playoff with an identity on offense that isn’t surprising, but the way it happened wasn’t as expected.
Even though the Ducks were able to snag one of the top running backs in the transfer portal — Makhi Hughes — they have become an elite running team without him. Hughes is redshirting the season and Oregon has not missed him — Noah Whittington, Jayden Limar and dynamic freshmen Dierre Hill Jr. and Jordon Davison have together been a force, totaling over 2,000 yards between them as well as 26 touchdowns. Quarterback Dante Moore has shown himself to be one of the top quarterbacks, but if the Ducks succeed in December and January, they will be fueled by their ground game. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 6
When the season started, Trinidad Chambliss was a backup quarterback from Division II Ferris State just hoping for an opportunity. That moment came in Week 3, after starter Austin Simmons sustained a foot injury and could not play. Chambliss made the most of his start and never looked back, leading the Rebels to an 11-1 season and what should be their first at-large berth in the College Football Playoff.
That Chambliss has been so good in his first season at the Division I level has been the biggest surprise at Ole Miss and one of the biggest surprises in college football. Especially since he was not pegged to start, and pundits thought Ole Miss would take a step back with Jaxson Dart off to the NFL draft. Chambliss ranks fourth in the SEC with 3,016 yards passing, throwing 18 touchdown passes to only three interceptions. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 3
The Aggies were picked to finish eighth in the preseason SEC media poll, then reeled off an 11-1 regular season in which they were in contention for the SEC championship game until a final, devastating loss to Texas, of all teams. The season qualifies as a bit of a surprise, with an explosive offense that was a vast improvement over 2024’s, which ranked 50th in scoring offense.
This season, Marcel Reed, along with Mario Craver and KC Concepcion, stretched the field, the team averaged 36.3 points (16th) and Reed had a breakout season, second in the SEC to Diego Pavia with 35 total touchdowns. Obviously, in a 27-17 loss to Texas to end the season, the Aggies came back to earth with Reed being held to 180 passing yards and no touchdowns and two interceptions, and adding 71 yards rushing. But the playoff looms for the Aggies, and they get another chance to rewrite an ending to a dream season. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 8
It’s difficult to say there’s anything surprising about a Brent Venables defense being elite. But after losing defensive stars Billy Bowman Jr. and Danny Stutsman to the NFL draft, it might have been hard to imagine the Sooners could be this good. Following Oklahoma’s regular-season finale win over LSU on Saturday, the Sooners lead the SEC in total defense (273.6 YPG), run defense (81.4 YPG) and scoring defense (13.9 PPG). Only Texas Tech and Indiana are giving up less rushing yards per game, and Oklahoma’s smothering pass rush sits level alongside Texas A&M for the national sacks lead (41). With Venables calling plays again, the Sooners’ defense has been good enough to mask a broadly mediocre offense this fall, carrying Oklahoma almost certainly to its first playoff appearance since 2019. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 10
Two games into the season, Notre Dame’s playoff hopes seemed dead and buried. The idea that an 0-2 team would run the table to claw its way back into the playoff picture didn’t really seem worth considering. So, from that standpoint, the Irish’s current position — at 10-2 with a good chance of being selected for the playoff — is surprising. But anyone who has watched Notre Dame play over the past several weeks understands this is a team not only worthy of selection, but capable of making a deep playoff run. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 9
The storyline we have written about the most this season has been the most surprising: The Crimson Tide have not been as dominant as expected on the offensive line, and their run game has struggled for any consistency. Alabama was projected to have one of the better lines in the country, particularly with the return of Kadyn Proctor. But even he struggled early to maintain his weight and had his own moments when he was not as dominant as he could have been.
But the fact Alabama still has a chance to win the SEC, with one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, certainly comes as a surprise. Alabama ranks No. 108 in the country in rushing, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. Jam Miller has either been hurt or played through an injury for most of the season and left the game against Auburn because of a lower leg injury. His status is up in the air for the SEC title game. He leads the team with 493 yards rushing — on pace for the fewest yards by the team’s leading rusher since 1990. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 11
At 11-1, there seems to be a consensus that if BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, it won’t make the playoff — and that does seem to be the most likely scenario. But perhaps the Cougars deserve more consideration. If Steve Sarkisian can claim Texas being left out would be “a travesty,” what does that mean for an 11-win team whose lone loss was to a team capable of winning the whole thing? — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 12
Freshman receiver Malachi Toney, the player nicknamed “Baby Jesus” because he has been called a savior on the football field, emerged as the most dynamic player in the Miami offense and arguably in the entire country as an 18-year-old. Miami had questions about its receiver group headed into the season after losing its top four players from a year ago. Toney stepped into the void and made his presence felt immediate against Notre Dame, then kept going with one game more impressive than the next. Toney ended the regular season leading the team with 84 catches for 970 yards and seven touchdowns, while also throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another. He had two games with 12 or more receptions this season. All other true freshmen in FBS have combined for one such game. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 14
Though the Commodores returned Diego Pavia at quarterback, there were not many believers headed into the season. Vanderbilt was picked to finish 13th in the SEC preseason media poll. But the surprise of the season is the team itself. Pavia reached an even higher level, leading Vanderbilt to its first 10-win season in program history and potentially securing a spot for the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York next week. Vanderbilt also won a school-record six SEC games, beat Tennessee for the first time since 2018 and also took down LSU and Missouri. Pavia ranks second in the SEC with 3,192 yards passing — a single-season school record — and also ran for 826 yards and nine touchdowns. He ranks fourth on the school career list for total yards. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 16
There was lots of optimism around the Longhorns this season as a first-time preseason No. 1. Still, upon inspection, the offense was going to be a bit of a mystery with Arch Manning, a first-time starter, and wholesale changes at offensive line and wide receiver. What wasn’t expected was the midseason swoon on defense. True, the Horns lost Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba in the secondary, but Michael Taaffe, an All-American returned as well as several talented corners. Texas was able to right the ship in time to pull off a big win over No. 3 Texas A&M in Austin, grabbing two fourth-quarter interceptions after pressuring Marcel Reed all night in a 27-17 win. But looking back at the season, the 97th-ranked passing defense’s struggles against DJ Lagway, who had his best game of 2025 for 3-9 Florida in an upset of Texas, could prove to be the breaking point in Texas’ playoff hopes. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 13
After the initial playoff rankings were released, it seemed possible that if enough results went in Utah’s favor, the Utes could back their way into the playoff, but it didn’t play out that way. The margin between Utah and the playoff was slim. Consider this: In the Utes’ only two losses of the season, they led in the fourth quarter (against BYU) and trailed by three in the fourth quarter (Texas Tech). Still, even if the Utes lose their bowl game, they are almost guaranteed to finish as a top-20 team, which would be the fourth time in the past eight years. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 17
The Cavaliers went from one of the worst rushing offenses in the ACC to one of the best this season thanks to one of the best transfers they signed: running back J’Mari Taylor from NC Central. Taylor walked on at NC Central in 2020 just hoping for a chance, and when he transferred to Virginia this past offseason, the hope was that he would help the Cavaliers run the ball more consistently. He did that and more, finishing with 997 yards rushing in the regular season to lead the ACC. He is the first Virginia running back to lead the conference in rushing since Antwoine Womack 25 years ago. Thanks to Taylor’s dominance on the ground, Virginia was able to have more balance with its offense, and that allowed the Cavaliers to make it to the ACC championship game — one win away from making their first CFP appearance. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 19
Lincoln Riley’s team has started slowly in every big game it has played this season. In the case of losses to Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon, the Trojans were not able to overcome that flaw. But in every other game this season, including in Saturday’s season finale against UCLA in which they trailed 10-7 at half, they have been able to find another gear in the second half to win.
The Trojans showed progress this season compared to a 7-5 record in 2024, primarily because they became a very good second-half team — not the case last season — and were able to win most of their close games. Now, at 9-3, is that enough to satisfy the caliber of program USC portends to be? Until Riley gets the Trojans to the College Football Playoff, the answer is probably no. — Uggetti
Previous ranking: 15
Saturday was not a banner day for freshman receiver Andrew Marsh, who finished without a catch in a 27-9 loss to Ohio State. Still, a month deep into the season, Marsh emerged from the fringes of the receiver rotation to become quarterback Bryce Underwood‘s go-to target. Marsh ended the regular season leading the Wolverines with 42 receptions for 641 yards and three touchdowns, despite sitting on only one catch until Oct. 4. Saturday was a massive disappointment for the Michigan offense. But the Wolverines have a lot to build on moving forward with Underwood and Marsh leading the passing attack. — Trotter
Previous ranking: NR
Brent Brennan and his staff pulled off one of the best turnarounds in college football in Year 2, rebounding from a bitterly disappointing 4-8 debut with a 9-3 run in 2025 that should conclude with a top-25 finish. Two of those losses also were pretty close — a double-overtime defeat to BYU and a loss at Houston on a last-second field goal. The Wildcats responded with a five-game win streak and closed out Big 12 play with a 23-7 victory over rival Arizona State. This staff did a tremendous job of flipping its fortunes this offseason by pairing 27 incoming transfers with quarterback Noah Fifita and a strong core of team leaders who chose to stay through tough times and help Brennan get things fixed. — Olson
Previous ranking: 20
The Mean Green are one of the best stories of the 2025 season, with a quarterback (Drew Mestemaker) who didn’t even start in high school, throwing for 3,825 yards and 29 touchdowns to four interceptions, leading the nation’s top offense in yards per game (516.2), yards per play (7.5) and points per game (46.4). The 11 wins are a school record, with still a conference championship game to go and a chance to earn the unthinkable following 5-7 and 6-7 seasons in coach Eric Morris’ first two years: a spot in the College Football Playoff field. But all of that success comes at a price. Morris has already accepted the Oklahoma State coaching job, though he will finish out the season, and Mestemaker could be right behind him. But the Mean Green have had a season for the ages in Denton. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 21
Despite losing Darian Mensah to Duke in the offseason, not signing eventual replacement Jake Retzlaff until the summer and what has turned out to be a pretty lackluster run game on average, Tulane’s offense has remained excellent in 2025. The Green Wave sleepwalked through Saturday’s 27-0 win over Charlotte, but Retzlaff still threw for 291 yards, bringing him to 2,717 yards for the season in addition to 615 non-sack rushing yards. His go-to receiver has changed at times this season, but Anthony Brown-Stephens led the way with nine catches and 98 yards Saturday. The Green Wave defense has been shaky, especially against the pass — and that could be a problem against North Texas in the American championship game — but Retzlaff & Co. can keep up in a track meet. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 24
The Dukes are now one win away from potentially advancing to the College Football Playoff. Coach Bob Chesney’s squad closed out an 11-1 regular season and an 8-0 run through conference play with a 59-10 blowout of Coastal Carolina. This team has built on a nine-win season in 2024 with one of the most dominant runs through conference play the Sun Belt has ever seen. James Madison’s average margin of victory in Sun Belt play has been 27.4 points. It will host Troy (8-4) in the Sun Belt championship game and hope one more strong showing earns some respect from the CFP committee. Another outcome that can absolutely help JMU’s chances: Duke upsetting Virginia in the ACC title game would create a real possibility of two G5 teams earning bids in the 12-team CFP. — Olson
Previous ranking: 25
After last season’s eight-overtime loss to Georgia, there was a sense that something significant had changed for Georgia Tech. No, the Yellow Jackets weren’t going to spend like Texas Tech in the offseason, but that game served notice that, with enough commitment, there was every reason to believe this program could compete with the big boys. For most of 2025, that’s exactly what happened — even in another nail-biter with the Bulldogs on Friday. Georgia Tech was good. Just not good enough.
A late-season swoon that included losses to NC State, Pitt and, again, Georgia, ultimately nixed the year’s highest hopes, but a 10-win campaign is still within reach, which, while not exactly surprising, still would constitute a high-water mark for the program in more than a decade. Haynes King‘s brilliance, the emergence of stars such as Malachi Hosley, and the grunt work done by Jordan van den Berg, Keylan Rutledge and so many other players who crafted their games in head coach Brent Key’s image have made for a surprisingly fun season, even if it ultimately fell short of the highest of aspirations. — Hale
Previous ranking: 18
For better or worse, this was an old Josh Heupel team. After making a playoff run with a great defense and frustrating offense, Heupel’s Vols have flipped back to being all offense, little defense. It has given up over 30 points seven times, including Saturday’s demoralizing 45-24 loss to Vanderbilt, its first defeat to the Commodores in seven years. Still, despite losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal in the spring, the offense improved dramatically, and with just one extra stop against Georgia and Oklahoma, the Vols have remained in the playoff hunt the entire season. A very mixed bag in 2025. — Connelly
Previous ranking: NR
Perhaps it should be no surprise that Iowa’s offense improved again in 2025 after offensive coordinator Tim Lester lifted the Hawkeyes from No. 132 to No. 72 in scoring offense a season ago. But considering the offenses Iowa fans were subjected to in 2022 and 2023, any and every improvement must be celebrated. The Hawkeyes close the regular season with the nation’s 60th-ranked scoring offense — up to 28.9 points from 27.7 a year ago — marking the program’s best finish in the category since 2020.
The addition of transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski provided Iowa with a fresh red zone rushing presence and made the Hawkeyes’ passing attack ever so slightly more explosive. Lester also deserves credit for maintaining one of the Big Ten’s top rushing attacks despite losing 2024 rushing leader Kaleb Johnson. Simply back in the middle of the pack offensively within the conference, Kirk Ferentz and Iowa proved just how competitive it can be in 2025 on its way to eight-plus wins for the 10th time since 2015. — Lederman
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