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Britain is not just out of recession. It is out of recession with a bang.

The economic growth we saw reported this morning by the Office for National Statistics is not just faster than most economists expected, it is the fastest growth we’ve seen since the tail-end of the pandemic when the UK was bouncing back from lockdown.

But, more than that, there are three other facts that the prime minister and chancellor will be gleeful about (and you can expect them to be talking about this number for a long time).

First, it’s not just that the economy is now growing again after two-quarters of contraction (that was the recession).

An economic growth rate of 0.6% is near enough to what economists used to call “trend growth”, back before the crisis – in other words, it’s the kind of number which signifies the economy growing at more or less “normal” rates.

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Jeremy Hunt on cutting national insurance

And normality is precisely the thing the government wants us to believe we’ve returned to.

Second, that 0.6% means the UK is, alongside Canada, the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (we’ve yet to hear from Japan, but economists expect its economy to contract in the first quarter).

Third, it’s not just gross domestic product (GDP) that’s up. So too is gross domestic product per head – the number you get when you divide our national income by every person in the country.

After seven years without any growth, GDP per head rose by 0.4% in the first quarter. And since GDP per head is a better yardstick for the “feelgood factor”, perhaps this means people will finally start to feel better off.

But this is where the problems come in. Because while this latest set of GDP figures is undoubtedly positive, the numbers that came before are undoubtedly grim.

GDP per head is still considerably lower, in real terms, than it was in 2022, before the mini-budget, or for that matter lower than in early 2019.

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This raises another question: when people think about the state of the economy ahead of the election (and obviously these new figures are likely to increase the speculation about the date of the election), do they put more weight on the years of economic disappointment or the bounce back after them?

Do they focus on the fact that we’re now growing at a decent whack or on the fact that their income per head is, in real terms, no higher today than it was five years ago?

These are the questions we will all be mulling in the coming months – as the next election approaches.

One thing is for sure: this won’t be the last time you hear about these GDP numbers.

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

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Daily Mail-owner Rothermere eyes minority Telegraph stake in RedBird deal

The publisher of the Daily Mail has held talks in recent days about taking a minority stake in the Telegraph newspapers as part of a deal to end the two-year impasse over their ownership.

Sky News has learnt that Lord Rothermere, who controls Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGT), was in detailed negotiations late last week which would have seen him taking a 9.9% stake in the Telegraph titles.

It was unclear on Monday whether the talks were still live or whether they would result in a deal, with one adviser suggesting that the discussions may have faltered.

One insider said that if DMGT did acquire a stake in the Telegraph, the transaction would be used as a platform to explore the sharing of costs across the two companies.

They would, however, remain editorially independent.

Sources said that RedBird and IMI, whose joint venture owns a call option to convert debt secured against the Telegraph into equity, were hoping to announce a deal for the future ownership of the media group this week, potentially on Thursday.

However, the insider suggested that a transaction could yet be struck without any involvement from DMGT.

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The progress in the talks to seal new ownership for the right-leaning titles comes days after the government said it would allow foreign state investors to hold stakes of up to 15% in British national newspapers.

That would pave the way for Abu Dhabi royal family-controlled IMI to own 15% of the Daily and Sunday Telegraph – a prospect which has sparked outrage from critics including the former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson.

The decision to set the ownership threshold at 15% follows an intensive lobbying campaign by newspaper industry executives concerned that a permanent outright ban could cut off a vital source of funding to an already-embattled industry.

RedBird Capital, the US-based fund, has already said it is exploring the possibility of taking full control of the Telegraph, while IMI would have – if the status quo had been maintained – been forced to relinquish any involvement in the right-leaning broadsheets.

Other than RedBird, a number of suitors for the Telegraph have expressed interest but struggled to raise the funding for a deal.

The most notable of these has been Dovid Efune, owner of The New York Sun, who has been trying for months to raise the £550m sought by RedBird IMI to recoup its outlay.

On Sunday, the Financial Times reported that Mr Efune has secured backing from Jeremy Hosking, the prominent City investor.

Another potential offer from Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, and media tycoon David Montgomery, has failed to materialise.

RedBird IMI paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.

That objective was thwarted by a change in media ownership laws – which banned any form of foreign state ownership – amid an outcry from parliamentarians.

The Spectator was then sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.

The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family-controlled assets.

Other bidders for the Telegraph had included Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m, while Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding for control of his rival’s titles last summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.

The Telegraph’s ownership had been left in limbo by a decision taken by Lloyds Banking Group, the principal lender to the Barclay family, to force some of the newspapers’ related corporate entities into a form of insolvency proceedings.

DMGT, RedBird and IMI all declined to comment.

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Energy bills set for series of falls as price cap due to be lowered, says forecaster

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Energy bills set for series of falls as price cap due to be lowered, says forecaster

Energy bills are set to fall from this July and will continue to drop in the autumn and winter, a forecaster has said.

Households will be charged £129 less for a typical annual bill from July as the energy price cap is due to fall, according to energy consultants Cornwall Insight.

From July, an average dual fuel bill will be £1,720 a year, 7% below the current price cap of £1,849 a year.

The price cap limits the cost per unit of energy and is revised every three months by the energy regulator Ofgem.

The official announcement from Ofgem will be made on Friday.

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Bills had already been made more expensive for three three-month periods, or quarters, in a row, in October, January, and April, as wholesale gas prices rose and European stores of the fossil fuel were depleted due to cold weather.

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Electricity prices are tied to gas prices.

The UK is also heavily reliant on gas for home heating and uses a significant amount for electricity generation.

Drops when the cap is next changed in October and January will be “modest”, Cornwall Insight said.

Price falls are not a certainty, however, as weather patterns, gas storage rules, the war in Ukraine, and tariffs could all change pricing.

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Energy costs have remained elevated following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and bills are still “well above” the levels seen at the start of the decade, said Cornwall Insight’s principal consultant, Dr Craig Lowrey.

“Prices are falling, but not by enough for the numerous households struggling under the weight of a cost-of-living crisis.

“As such, there remains a risk that energy will remain unaffordable for many,” he said.

“If prices can go down, they can bounce back up, especially with the unsettled global economic and political landscape we are experiencing. This is not the moment for complacency.”

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The government was called on by Mr Lowrey to explore options such as social tariffs, where vulnerable customers could pay less.

Proposals, including zonal pricing, which would see different regions of the country pay different rates, based on local supply and demand levels, are important but must be balanced with the urgent affordability crisis people are facing now, he said.

The continued growth of domestically produced renewable energy is “a positive step forward” and a cause for optimism as it helps protect against global energy price shocks and improves energy security, Mr Lowrey added.

“That progress needs to continue at pace, not just for the net zero transition, but to help build a more stable and secure energy future for all.”

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UK-EU trade deal: What is in the Brexit reset agreement?

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UK-EU trade deal: What is in the Brexit reset agreement?

The UK and the EU have agreed a new trade deal – five years after Brexit kicked in.

Following six months of talks after Sir Keir Starmer promised a fresh deal when he became prime minister last July, the two sides have come to an agreement.

Here are the details:

eGates

British passport holders will be able to use more eGates in Europe to avoid the long border control queues that have become the norm since Brexit in many EU countries.

Pet travel

Pet passports will be brought back so cats and dogs coming from the UK will no longer need pricey animal health certificates for every trip. After Brexit, pet owners had to get a certificate from a vet in the UK then a vet in the EU before returning.

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Pic: iStock
Image:
Pets will now be allowed to travel on a pet passport instead of having to have a health certificate every time they travel. Pic: iStock

Red tape on food and drink sales

A new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) deal has been agreed to reduce red tape currently needed to import and export food and drink between the UK and the EU.

There is no time limit to this part of the deal, which the government says will reduce the burden on businesses and reduce lorry queues at the border.

The “vast majority” of routine checks and certificates for animal and plant products will be removed completely, including between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The government says this could lower food prices and increase choice on supermarket shelves.

Some British foods that have been prevented from being sold in the EU since Brexit will be allowed back in again, including burgers and sausages.

Fishing rights

The current fishing deal agreed in 2020 will continue for 12 years.

There will be no increase in fish quotas.

The Cornish fishing village of Padstow.
Image:
British fishing rights will continue for 12 years. Pic: PA

EU fishing vessels can fish in UK waters, but they require a valid licence, and there are annual negotiations on access and share of stock.

The UK government has announced a £360m investment into the fishing industry to go towards new technology and equipment to modernise the fleet, train the workforce, help revitalise coastal communities, support tourism and boost seafood exports.

Defence

A new security and defence partnership has been agreed so the UK defence industry can participate in the EU’s plan for a £150bn defence fund called Security Action for Europe (SAFE). This will support thousands of British jobs.

The UK and EU will also enhance cooperation over maritime security and accident reporting.

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Carbon tax

The deal will see closer co-operation on emissions by the UK and the EU, linking their own emissions trading systems.

The UK’s scheme sets a cap on the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed from the power generation sector, energy-intensive industries and aviation, with companies issued allowances that they can trade with each other.

Under the deal, UK businesses will avoid being hit by the EU’s carbon tax, due to come in next year, which would have handed £800m to the EU.

Steel

British steel exports will be protected from new EU rules and tariffs to save UK steel £25m a year.

Further talks:

Youth mobility scheme

The UK and the EU have agreed to more negotiations on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period.

The scheme would include visas for young people working, studying, volunteering, travelling and working as au pairs.

Erasmus

The EU and the UK have agreed they should work towards an Erasmus programme, the student exchange programme which was scrapped when Brexit took place.

Catching criminals

The two sides have agreed to enter talks about the UK having access to EU facial images data to help catch dangerous criminals.

Migration

The two sides have agreed to further work on finding solutions to tackle illegal migration, including on returns and a joint commitment to tackle Channel crossings.

Electricity

The UK and the EU said they should explore the UK’s participation in the EU’s internal electricity market, including in its trading platforms.

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