The UK economy is no longer in recession, according to official figures.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Economists had predicted the figure would be 0.4%.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it showed the economy had “turned a corner”.
He told Sky News’s Ed Conway: “I am pleased that while there’s more work to do, today’s figures show that the economy now has real momentum, and I’m confident that with time, people will start to feel the benefits of that.
“We’ve had multiple months now where wages are rising, energy bills have fallen, mortgage rates are down and taxes are being cut… I’m pleased with the progress that we’re making.”
Mr Sunak added: “I am confident the economy is getting healthier every week.”
Image: Pic: Jacob King/PA
A recession, which is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts, was declared in February.
It came after the ONS said GDP, a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December. It followed a contraction of 0.1% in the three months from July to September.
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The slump was blamed on reduced consumer spending power amid high inflation and energy bills. Months of wet weather also contributed to keeping shoppers at home, commentators said.
The latest figures also revealed better-than-expected growth for March. GDP was up 0.4% during the month, which was higher than the 0.1% forecast by economists.
While previous recessions have been long-lasting – such as during the global financial crash of 2008 and 2009 – the latest one had been expected to be short-lived.
Recession over with a bang – but will voters forgive government?
Britain is not just out of recession. It is out of recession with a bang.
The economic growth we saw reported this morning by the Office for National Statistics is not just faster than most economists expected, it is the fastest growth we’ve seen since the tail-end of the pandemic when the UK was bouncing back from lockdown.
But, more than that, there are three other facts that the prime minister and chancellor will be gleeful about (and you can expect them to be talking about this number for a long time).
First, it’s not just that the economy is now growing again after two-quarters of contraction (that was the recession).
An economic growth rate of 0.6% is near enough to what economists used to call “trend growth”, back before the crisis – in other words, it’s the kind of number which signifies the economy growing at more or less “normal” rates.
And normality is precisely the thing the government wants us to believe we’ve returned to.
Second, that 0.6% means the UK is, alongside Canada, the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (we’ve yet to hear from Japan, but economists expect its economy to contract in the first quarter).
Third, it’s not just gross domestic product (GDP) that’s up. So too is gross domestic product per head – the number you get when you divide our national income by every person in the country.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described the figures as “encouraging” and said it showed that the economy was “returning to full health”.
He told Sky News: “I think that for families who’ve been having a really tough time, this is an indication that difficult decisions that we’ve taken over recent years are beginning to pay off and we need to stick with them.
“We’re seeing that inflation is falling faster and I think people recognise it’s been a very, very challenging period, but they don’t vote for Conservative governments for us to do popular things.
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PM: ‘UK economy has real momentum’
“They trust us to do the right thing for the long-term benefit of the economy and that is what we’ve been doing.”
However, opposition parties said there was little cause for celebration.
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “This is no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good.
“The economy is still £300 smaller per person than when Rishi Sunak became prime minister.”
Sarah Olney MP, Treasury spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, added: “This Conservative government crashed the economy and sent mortgages spiralling.
“If Rishi Sunak thinks hard-hit households will be celebrating today, he is even more out of touch than we thought.”
Liz McKeown, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “There was broad-based strength across the service industries with retail, public transport and haulage, and health all performing well.
“Car manufacturers also had a good quarter. These were only a little offset by another weak quarter for construction.
“In the month of March, the economy grew robustly led, again, by services with wholesalers, the health sector and hospitality all doing well.”
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‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates
Ruth Gregory, from research firm Capital Economics, said the figures suggested the UK’s economic recovery would be stronger than previously anticipated.
She added: “All the early indicators suggest that GDP growth rose robustly in April as well.
“At the margin, this may mean the Bank of England doesn’t need to rush to cut interest rates. But the timing of the first interest rate cut will ultimately be determined by the next inflation and labour market releases.”
The latest figures come after the Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday and issued new forecasts for the UK economy.
The Bank projected that growth would be stronger this year, with unemployment and inflation rates lower than previously expected.
Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.
“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.
Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.
She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.
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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT
Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.
Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.
Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”
Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.
Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.
The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.
Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.
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The big issues facing the UK economy
‘I won’t duck challenges’
In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.
“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.
“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”
She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.
“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.
“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”
Image: Pic: PA
Blame it on the B word?
Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.
This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.
The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.
“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.
“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”
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