The UK economy is no longer in recession, according to official figures.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a better-than-expected 0.6% between January and March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Economists had predicted the figure would be 0.4%.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it showed the economy had “turned a corner”.
He told Sky News’s Ed Conway: “I am pleased that while there’s more work to do, today’s figures show that the economy now has real momentum, and I’m confident that with time, people will start to feel the benefits of that.
“We’ve had multiple months now where wages are rising, energy bills have fallen, mortgage rates are down and taxes are being cut… I’m pleased with the progress that we’re making.”
Mr Sunak added: “I am confident the economy is getting healthier every week.”
Image: Pic: Jacob King/PA
A recession, which is defined as two consecutive three-month periods where the economy contracts, was declared in February.
It came after the ONS said GDP, a major measure of economic growth, shrank 0.3% between October and December. It followed a contraction of 0.1% in the three months from July to September.
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The slump was blamed on reduced consumer spending power amid high inflation and energy bills. Months of wet weather also contributed to keeping shoppers at home, commentators said.
The latest figures also revealed better-than-expected growth for March. GDP was up 0.4% during the month, which was higher than the 0.1% forecast by economists.
While previous recessions have been long-lasting – such as during the global financial crash of 2008 and 2009 – the latest one had been expected to be short-lived.
Recession over with a bang – but will voters forgive government?
Britain is not just out of recession. It is out of recession with a bang.
The economic growth we saw reported this morning by the Office for National Statistics is not just faster than most economists expected, it is the fastest growth we’ve seen since the tail-end of the pandemic when the UK was bouncing back from lockdown.
But, more than that, there are three other facts that the prime minister and chancellor will be gleeful about (and you can expect them to be talking about this number for a long time).
First, it’s not just that the economy is now growing again after two-quarters of contraction (that was the recession).
An economic growth rate of 0.6% is near enough to what economists used to call “trend growth”, back before the crisis – in other words, it’s the kind of number which signifies the economy growing at more or less “normal” rates.
And normality is precisely the thing the government wants us to believe we’ve returned to.
Second, that 0.6% means the UK is, alongside Canada, the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (we’ve yet to hear from Japan, but economists expect its economy to contract in the first quarter).
Third, it’s not just gross domestic product (GDP) that’s up. So too is gross domestic product per head – the number you get when you divide our national income by every person in the country.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described the figures as “encouraging” and said it showed that the economy was “returning to full health”.
He told Sky News: “I think that for families who’ve been having a really tough time, this is an indication that difficult decisions that we’ve taken over recent years are beginning to pay off and we need to stick with them.
“We’re seeing that inflation is falling faster and I think people recognise it’s been a very, very challenging period, but they don’t vote for Conservative governments for us to do popular things.
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0:53
PM: ‘UK economy has real momentum’
“They trust us to do the right thing for the long-term benefit of the economy and that is what we’ve been doing.”
However, opposition parties said there was little cause for celebration.
Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “This is no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good.
“The economy is still £300 smaller per person than when Rishi Sunak became prime minister.”
Sarah Olney MP, Treasury spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, added: “This Conservative government crashed the economy and sent mortgages spiralling.
“If Rishi Sunak thinks hard-hit households will be celebrating today, he is even more out of touch than we thought.”
Liz McKeown, the ONS’s director of economic statistics, said: “There was broad-based strength across the service industries with retail, public transport and haulage, and health all performing well.
“Car manufacturers also had a good quarter. These were only a little offset by another weak quarter for construction.
“In the month of March, the economy grew robustly led, again, by services with wholesalers, the health sector and hospitality all doing well.”
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3:28
‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates
Ruth Gregory, from research firm Capital Economics, said the figures suggested the UK’s economic recovery would be stronger than previously anticipated.
She added: “All the early indicators suggest that GDP growth rose robustly in April as well.
“At the margin, this may mean the Bank of England doesn’t need to rush to cut interest rates. But the timing of the first interest rate cut will ultimately be determined by the next inflation and labour market releases.”
The latest figures come after the Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday and issued new forecasts for the UK economy.
The Bank projected that growth would be stronger this year, with unemployment and inflation rates lower than previously expected.
A growing demand for US dollar-tied crypto stablecoins could help push down the interest rate, says US Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran.
The Donald Trump-appointed Miran told the BCVC summit in New York on Friday that the dollar-pegged crypto tokens could be “putting downward pressure” on the neutral rate, or r-star, that doesn’t stimulate or impede the economy.
If the neutral rate drops, then the central bank would also react by dropping its interest rate, he said.
The total current market cap of all stablecoins sits at $310.7 million according to CoinGecko data, and Miran suggested that Fed research found the market could grow to up to $3 trillion in value in the next five years.
Stephen Miran speaking at a conference in New York on Friday. Source: BCVC
“My thesis is that stablecoins are already increasing demand for US Treasury bills and other dollar-denominated liquid assets by purchasers outside the United States and that this demand will continue growing,” Miran said.
“Stablecoins may become a multitrillion-dollar elephant in the room for central bankers.”
Organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, have warned that stablecoins pose a threat to traditional financial assets and services, as they could potentially compete for customers. US banking groups have also urged Congress to tighten oversight of stablecoins with yield, arguing they could attract would-be bank users.
During his speech, Miran praised the GENIUS Act for setting out clear guidelines and consumer protections, as he indicated that the regulatory framework will play a key role in spurring broader adoption of stablecoins.
“While I tend to view new regulations skeptically, I’m greatly encouraged by the GENIUS Act. This regulatory apparatus for stablecoins establishes a level of legitimacy and accountability congruent with holding traditional dollar assets,” he said, adding:
“For the purposes of monetary policy, the most important aspect of the GENIUS Act is that it requires U.S.-domiciled issuers to maintain reserves backed on at least a one-to-one basis in safe and liquid US dollar–denominated assets.”
The crypto market could soon see some much-needed relief after the US Senate reached an agreement on a three-part budget deal to end the government shutdown, Politico reports.
Pending legislation to fund the US government has more than enough support to pass the 60-vote threshold, Politico reported on Sunday, citing two people familiar with the matter.
It was Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s 15th attempt to win Democratic support for a House-approved bill, putting the record 40-day government shutdown within reach of being lifted.
An official vote is still needed to finalize the agreement.
Ongoing uncertainty over when the US government would reopen has been a key factor holding back Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market from mounting a rebound.
Bitcoin initially rallied to a new high of $126,080 six days into the government shutdown on Oct. 6, but has since fallen over 17% to $104,370, CoinGecko data shows.
Bitcoin’s fall over the past month saw it drop by double-digit percentage points on Oct. 10 after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China sent shockwaves throughout the markets.
Bitcoin’s change in price since Oct. 1. Source: CoinGecko
Bitcoin rallied 266% after last government shutdown lifted
The last US government shutdown occurred between late December 2018 and late January the following year in Trump’s first term.
After it ended on Jan. 25, 2019, Bitcoin rose over 265% from $3,550 to $13,000 over the next five months.
Prediction markets back shutdown to end this week
Bettors on prediction market Polymarket are backing that the government shutdown will be lifted on Thursday, with the market showing a 54% chance it will happen between Tuesday and Friday.
Amid serious concerns over the editorial mistakes made by the BBC, the downfall of its leaders has been greeted with undisguised glee by many on the right of British politics.
Former prime minister Liz Truss was quick off the mark to retweet gloating posts from Donald Trump and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt with clapping emojis.
Ms Truss argued not just for the abolition of the licence fee, but for the end of nationalised broadcasting altogether.
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Her former cabinet colleague Suella Braverman has also called for the licence fee to be scrapped.
It’s an idea long advocated by Nadine Dorries during her time as culture secretary. The recent Reform convert is particularly pessimistic about the BBC’s future – telling me she believes its “core bias” has worsened in recent years.
“I’m afraid the resignation of Tim Davie will change nothing,” she said. “Under this Labour government overseeing the new appointment… it will probably get worse.”
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2:17
Why ‘Teflon Tim’ resigned from BBC
All three politicians were close allies of Boris Johnson, who has been instrumental this week in piling the pressure on the BBC.
He dramatically threatened in the Daily Mail to boycott the licence fee until Tim Davie explained what happened with the Trump Panorama documentary – or resigned.
Shadow culture secretary Nigel Huddleston told Sky News “we want them to be successful” – but he and his boss Kemi Badenoch are calling for wide-ranging editorial reforms to end what they describe as “institutional bias”.
Their list calls for changes to BBC Arabic, its coverage of the US and Middle East, and “basic matters of biology”, by which they mean its stories on trans issues.
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0:47
‘Catastrophic failure’ at BBC
The irony of demanding editorial changes from a supposedly independent organisation dealing with allegations of bias has been lost in the furore.
Similarly, Nigel Farage is calling for the government to appoint a new director-general from the private sector who has “a record of coming in and turning companies and cultures around”.
As part of its editorial independence, the appointment of the BBC’s next editor-in-chief is meant to be entirely down to its own independent board – and out of the hands of ministers.
The government’s own response to the scandal has therefore been relatively muted. In a statement, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy thanked Mr Davie for his long service to public service broadcasting – and paid tribute to the BBC as “one of our most important national institutions”.
Image: Tim Davie and Deborah Turness. Pics: PA
Before the news of the resignations broke, she had been expressing her “complete confidence” in how the BBC’s leadership were dealing with the “serious allegations” described in the leaked memo from Michael Prescott, a former external adviser to the corporation’s editorial standards committee.
The departure of Mr Davie and the CEO of BBC News Deborah Turness just hours later seemed to be something of a shock.
A more detailed government response is sure to come when parliament returns from recess tomorrow.
The Culture Media and Sport Committee of MPs – which has played an active role in the scandal by writing to the BBC chairman and demanding answers – is due to receive its response today, which is expected to include an apology for the Panorama edits.
Its chair Dame Caroline Dinenage described Mr Davie’s resignation as “regrettable” but said that “restoring trust in the corporation must come first”.
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1:29
Ex-Panorama staffer: ‘Worst crime imaginable’
So far, the only British political leader prepared to mount an outspoken defence of the BBC is Sir Ed Davey.
The Liberal Democrat argues that seeing the White House take credit for Mr Davie’s downfall – and attacking the BBC – “should worry us all”.
He’s called on the PM and all British political leaders to stand united in “telling Trump to keep his hands off it”.
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4:13
What did the BBC do to anger Trump?
Given the diplomatic contortions Sir Keir Starmer has gone through to develop close relations with the current president, this seems entirely unlikely.
But for a prime minister already juggling an overflowing in-tray of problems, controversy over the national broadcaster as the government prepares to enter negotiations about renewing its charter for the next decade is another political tripwire in waiting.