The race for Number 10 begins in earnest today following Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a snap summer general election in a high stakes move that could bring to an end his party’s 14 years in government.

The prime minister took the gamble of his political life when he announced that he will go to the country on 4 July – much sooner than had been expected and while the Tories are languishing behind Labour in the opinion polls.

General election latest: Sunak ditches jacket for first election rally – as he asks ‘who do you trust?’

Outlining his decision in the pouring rain outside of Downing Street, a sodden Mr Sunak said that “now is the moment for Britain to choose its future” as he claimed his party could be trusted to lead the country in a time of global instability.

In response, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer told voters: “Together we can stop the chaos, we can turn the page, we can start to rebuild Britain.”

A July election is earlier than many in Westminster had expected, with a contest in October or November widely thought to have been more likely.

The move has surprised and even upset some within the Conservative ranks, with senior figures telling Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby the decision is “madness” given Labour’s 20 point lead in the polls.

Some Tory MPs publicly expressed their concerns, with backbencher Tracey Crouch posting on X: “I am feeling quite emotional about all this.

“I was anticipating an autumn departure from Parliament and still had important issues to raise on behalf of my constituents between now and then. I am sad that I won’t now get to do that.”

The election timing allows just two days for “wash-up”, when the government finalises non-contentious pieces of legislation before parliament is dissolved.

It means that some of the Conservative’s flagship plans, such as a ban on smoking, leasehold reforms and improvements to renters’ rights might be left to the next government.

Mr Sunak is said to have made the calculation that little would change between now and November.

Housing Secretary Michael Gove is said to have been among those who backed the gamble during emergency cabinet discussions, telling the prime minister: “Who dares wins. And you dared, and you’re going to win.”

The announcement came after the Office for National Statistics said inflation slowed to 2.3% in April, down from 3.2% in March.

In a sign of what the election will be fought on, the prime minister made the economy a key element of his pitch to the nation, saying the inflation figures are “proof that the plan and priorities I set out are working”.

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He also highlighted Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the tensions in the Middle East relating to the Israel-Hamas conflict, the threat of China and migration “being weaponised by hostile states to threaten the integrity of our borders”.

“These uncertain times call for a clear plan and bold action to chart a course to a secure future,” he said.

Later, at a campaign rally that saw Sky News’ Darren McCaffery escorted out, Mr Sunak acknowledged he was the underdog but suggested Labour was acting like it had already won.

“Labour want you to think that this election is over before it has even begun.

“But we are going to fight every day for our values and our vision and the British people are going to show Labour that they don’t take too kindly to being taken for granted.”

But Labour leader Sir Keir said: “If they get another five years they will feel entitled to carry on exactly as they are. Nothing will change.”

He promised a “new spirit of service”, putting the country before party interests.

“I am well aware of the cynicism people hold towards politicians at the moment, but I came into politics late, having served our country as leader of the Crown Prosecution Service, and I helped the Police Service in Northern Ireland to gain the consent of all communities.”

Labour needs a swing of 12.5 percentage points just to win a majority of one – something even Sir Tony Blair did not achieve in his landslide victory of 1997.

But having transformed the party after its historic defeat in 2019, some pollsters believe Sir Keir could wipe out the Tories and be swept into power with as many as 400 seats.

If that happens it would be a remarkable turn of events compared to the last election, which saw the Conservatives under Boris Johnson win a thumping 80-seat majority.

That has since been slashed by a series of by-election losses, while repeated leadership elections and sleaze scandals have seen the Tories’ popularity plummet among voters.

Rishi Sunak has made the calculation that 4 July is, if not the best election date for the Conservatives, then the least worst.

Firstly, he thinks there is a story to tell on the economy – albeit one that is not without peril.

Britain is out of recession, while inflation today is statistically within “normal” levels.

Politics Live: Sunak ditches jacket for first election rally – as he asks ‘who do you trust?’

Secondly, it’s likely a plane will possibly take off for the Rwanda within the election campaign. While this will be branded a success, it avoids the judgement on the true purpose of the policy – to stop the boats.

Thirdly, I understand it was no longer possible to have a budget or further fiscal statement after the big promise to increase military spending to 2.5% by 2030.

One Tory source told me that the moment they saw that, they knew there wouldn’t be further tax cuts and an election would be sooner rather than later.

But more than that, there was a real – perhaps existential – question about how long Sunak could continue to hold it together.

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There are revolts in parliament looming – on abortion, on smoking and on shorter prison sentencing. This potentially avoids some of those.

He was also facing questions whether he would have to do a reshuffle after Chris Heaton Harris, Northern Ireland Secretary, announced his departure at the next election. Precedent that should have prompted a reshuffle – perhaps this has avoided that.

There are also claims – that might never be proved one way or another – that more and more Tories wanted him gone and he could have been tiptoeing closer to a vote of no confidence. Only Sir Graham Brady may know the truth of this.

All of that is now in the past. Sunak has gambled, knowing success under any definition is hard.

A second boy has died after two children got into difficulty in the River Tyne in Northumberland.

Northumbria Police said Aras Rudzianskas, 13, from Newcastle, died in hospital on Tuesday.

David Radut, 14, also from Newcastle, died at the scene near the bridge at Ovingham on Saturday.

Chief Superintendent Sam Rennison, of Northumbria Police, said: “Our sincerest sympathies go to the loved ones of both boys and we will continue to provide whatever support we can at this devastating time.

“Since Saturday, our thoughts and those of the wider community have been with the families and friends of those affected.

“We would ask that the public continue to respect the privacy of the families both online and in the community.”

Aras was described as being in a critical condition after the incident and he died despite the efforts of medical staff.

The parents of both boys are being supported by specially trained officers.

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Online fundraising appeals have been set up for both families to help them pay for the funerals.

Earlier this week, flowers were laid close to where the friends had been playing.