Passan: The five biggest takeaways from Statcast’s swing-tracking data
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
Major League Baseball publicly released a trove of bat-tracking data today that offers fascinating insights into what makes the best hitters good — and the worst bad. With everything from bat speed to swing length to sweet spot contact measured, it will have a similarly profound effect on hitters that ball-tracking data had on pitchers.
Using the Hawk-Eye tracking system that positions 12 cameras around every major league stadium — including five running at 300 frames per second — MLB has spent more than two years refining the bat-tracking model before releasing it on its Statcast platform. In measuring using the sweet spot about 6 inches below the head of the bat, every swing of every hitter is documented through objective data and ready for analysis.
Here are the basics. The average major league swing is 71.5 mph. The average length of the bat’s path on a swing, start to finish, is 7.3 feet. Hitters square up the ball on one-third of batted balls. The fastest swings typically belong to the most productive players — but not always. The average bat speed for the best hitter in the major leagues this season, Shohei Ohtani: 75.4 mph. The average bat speed for the worst hitter in the major leagues this season, Javier Baez: 75.4 mph.
Just as the advent of the pitch-tracking era prompted changes in training methods to juice velocity and spin, the ability to measure bat speed and paths will likewise change the approaches of hitters in future years. For now, though, in this nascent stage, the data is pure and unadulterated. And it tells us that when it comes to bat speed, there is one man, and then there is everyone else.
The king of bat speed
When Statcast debuted in 2015 and exit velocity jumped to the fore of baseball lexicon, Giancarlo Stanton, then with the Miami Marlins, topped almost every leaderboard. That season, there were 12 balls hit at least 117 mph. One from Mike Trout, one from Nelson Cruz, one from Carlos Gonzalez and nine from Stanton.
The now-New York Yankees slugger’s bat-speed numbers are similarly gaudy. Stanton’s swing, on average, comes in around 80.6 mph — nearly 3 mph higher than the second-fastest swinger, Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz. It’s also consistently fast. Statcast is characterizing all swings over 75 mph as “fast.” Just over 22% of swings reach the 75 mph threshold. Stanton is at 98.0%, nearly 25% ahead of the next best, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber, who swings 75-plus mph 73.9% of the time.
Stanton is also near the top of another category: swing length, where he’s second behind Baez. Height often influences swing length, and at 6-foot-6, it’s no surprise to see Stanton’s swing covering 8.4 feet.
Of course, as Stanton’s struggles in recent years have taught, exit velocity — and now, bat speed — do not by themselves make for a great hitter. Stanton has the single hardest-hit ball in MLB this season at 119.9 mph and the highest average exit velocity on his hardest-hit balls, but he has been only a slightly-above-league-average hitter, batting .230/.283/.452.
The lesson: You can have the fastest swing around, but by no means does it guarantee success.
The anti-Stanton
On the other end of the spectrum is San Diego Padres craftsman Luis Arraez, who can add a new title to his two batting crowns: the slowest bat in baseball. Arráez’s bat speed of 62.4 mph lags 2 mph behind the second-most languid, Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, and the two are perhaps the best examples of what players without elite bat speed can do to continue thriving in the big leagues.
Arráez and Kwan are part of the cohort of controlled, short swings that get squared up with a phenomenal amount of regularity. Arráez’s swing is just 5.9 feet and Kwan’s 6.4. In the group of sub-68-mph bat speed and sub-6.4-foot swing length are Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang (128 OPS+), Yankees outfielder Alex Verdugo (107) and Toronto Blue Jays DH Justin Turner (111), all of whom are productive offensive players.
One might suggest it’s in spite of their swings, but perhaps it’s better to start treating it like it’s because of them. Arráez leads MLB by squaring up the ball on 43.9% of his swings. To determine whether a pitch has been squared up, the system takes two variables — bat speed and pitch speed — and determines the maximum exit velocity. Then it takes the actual EV on a batted ball and compares it to the peak. If it’s at least 80% of the top-end number, it is deemed to be squared up, because only balls that hit the bat’s sweet spot can produce 80%-plus velocities.
When hitters square up a ball, they bat .372 and slug .659. When they don’t, they hit .127 and slug .144. In other words, even if neither possesses much power, appreciate Arráez, Kwan and others for what they are: masters of the art of hitting.
The perfect marriage of bat speed and precision
Take Stanton, put him into one of those mash-up machines with Arráez, and what do you get?
Juan Soto. Just consider:
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At 76.1 mph, the Yankees right fielder has the 10th-highest bat speed among the 221 qualified players.
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He swings 75-plus mph 66% of the time, ranking seventh.
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He has squared up 83 balls, the fourth most in MLB, and does so at a 48.3% rate, which is second.
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He is second in blasts, a metric that adds an element of bat speed to a player’s squared-up rate, with 49. The top 10 players in blasts are a “who’s who” of great hitters: Jose Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez, Aaron Judge, Yandy Diaz, Gunnar Henderson, Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr., Ohtani, Soto and a surprising No. 1 whom we’ll introduce next.
A swing length of 7.3 feet is the only place where Soto is average. He’s not like Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman and Wyatt Langford, who generate excellent bat speed with short swings. Nor is he like the majority of players who join him near the top of the bat-speed list and generate it using long swings.
No, Soto is just spectacular at what he does. And his outlier status in bat-tracking data validates his place there with production, too.
The best hitter in baseball nobody knows
He has more blasts than Soto and Ohtani.
Only four players have squared up more balls than him, and each is a multitime All-Star.
He doesn’t even swing, on average, as hard as his brother. But that doesn’t matter, because William Contreras — the Brewers’ catcher, younger sibling of St. Louis Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras — does plenty of damage with a 74.2 mph effort. Not only is the 26-year-old Contreras atop the list of blasts, it’s not particularly close: His 58 are ahead of Soto’s 50 and Ohtani’s 46, and his big league-best blast rate of 34.5% is 2½ times the major league average of 13.7%.
The reason for Contreras’ success is clear: He swings hard, hits the ball very hard and doesn’t strike out much (sub-20% punchout rate on the season). It’s an exceptional combination of skills, and to have maintained this offensive output playing every Brewers game, not to mention 33 of 40 at catcher, is MVP-caliber work.
Others this season whose bat skills deserve credit:
Whose profiles are alarming?
While MLB attempted to start tracking swings using Statcast in a limited number of stadiums during the 2022 season, the league only felt confident enough this year to release the full set of numbers. Thus, it’s impossible to know for certain whose swing has gotten faster or slower in recent years.
Here are five players whose swing metrics over the season’s first seven weeks are cause for concern.
Javier Báez, SS, Detroit Tigers: Never has bat speed been a question for Báez, and this season reinforced that. The issue — or one of the issues — is that he lugs his bat through the zone longer than anyone, Stanton included. Baez’s 8.7-foot-long bat path simply doesn’t generate the hard contact it once did, and his .172/.208/.233 line reflects that.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: Right behind Baez and Stanton in swing length is the 33-year-old Arenado. Long swings can be a good thing — Michael Harris II, Aaron Judge, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins and Adolis Garcia all rank in the top 10 — but they’re tough on a pull-heavy hitter with well-below-average bat speed. Arenado has clocked in at 69.5 mph this season, and while he’s been an average hitter in a down offensive environment, only a few others (Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve) have found success with long swings and slower bats. All three have low blast rates, which is worth keeping an eye on.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: The 25-year-old has the makings of a good hitter. An average bat speed of 75.6 mph (14th in MLB) and 34 blasts (22nd) portend well. The issue? Guerrero is squaring up the ball at an anemic rate: just 21% of swings and 26.9% of the time on contact. The blasts show that when Vlad does hit the sweet spot, he does significant damage. He just hits the weak part of the bat far too often.
Jorge Soler, DH, San Francisco Giants: As bad as Guerrero has been at squaring up the ball, Soler is markedly worse. His bad speed is the same as Vlad’s at 75.6 mph, but he has the third-lowest squared-up rate on contact. The blasts are even worse: Soler has been the only player in baseball who swings harder than 73.2 mph and can’t muster even a 10% blast rate. Perhaps the right shoulder strain that forced him to the IL a week ago was the culprit? No longer is that a question left to speculation. The data upon Soler’s return will answer it.
Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets: At the bottom of the list is Baty, the clearest example of the anomaly that is high bat speed, weak contact. While Baty doesn’t swing as hard as Soler or Guerrero, his 73.2-mph swing is certainly above average. His MLB-worst 18.0% squared-up rate on contact, on the other hand, is not. Getting out-blasted by Arráez when swinging 11 mph harder than him is a difficult thing to do.
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
Tennessee‘s Nico Iamaleava has been cleared medically to play Saturday against Georgia and is set to return as the Vols’ starting quarterback, sources told ESPN.
Iamaleava, a redshirt freshman, missed the second half of the 33-14 win over Mississippi State last week after suffering a blow to the head. He was listed as questionable earlier this week on the SEC availability report but has been removed in the latest report.
Iamaleava practiced this week, including team periods, and there was optimism among the staff that he was trending in the right direction and would be able to play. But the final call was made by medical personnel. Iamaleava was examined by doctors for what sources told ESPN were concussion-like symptoms after leaving the Mississippi State game. He did not return to the sideline for the second half.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said on Monday that he felt like Iamaleava would be in “great shape for Saturday” and noted that Iamaleava was with the team earlier Monday morning for meetings and team activities. The Vols’ first full-scale practice was Tuesday.
Iamaleava was having his most productive outing against an SEC team this season before leaving the game against Mississippi State. He completed 8 of 13 passes for 174 yards, no interceptions and a pair of touchdowns as Tennessee built a 20-7 halftime lead. In Iamaleava’s previous five SEC games, he had accounted for three touchdowns and turned it over five times. He was also sacked 15 times in those five games.
Redshirt senior Gaston Moore filled in for Iamaleava in the second half last week and finished 5-of-8 for 38 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Getting Iamaleava back for the Georgia game is big news for Tennessee, which is right in the middle of the SEC championship race and College Football Playoff picture.
Receiver Dont’e Thornton (hand) has also been given the green light to play for Tennessee after earlier being listed as questionable.
Week 12 is here as we take a look at an SEC matchup that has College Football Playoff implications, learn about three of the nation’s top passers who all played under the same coach and see what’s going on in the Big 12.
No. 7 Tennessee will visit Sanford Stadium as it takes on conference opponent No. 12 Georgia on Saturday night. With so much at stake, what can each team improve on ahead of this SEC showdown?
The Big 12 has six teams in the hunt for a spot in the conference title game. With the final CFP rankings coming out in less than a month, what scenario looks most realistic for the conference in terms of how many of its teams could make the 12-team field?
Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of the Week 12 slate.
Jump to a section:
Tennessee-Georgia | The coach behind three top QB passers
What’s going on in the Big 12 | Quotes of the Week
What has each team done well in conference play? What improvements can be made?
It has been a historic (and dominant) season for Tennessee’s defense, which has yet to give up more than 19 points in any of its nine games. Against SEC competition, the Volunteers lead the conference in scoring defense, giving up 16.7 points per game, and also lead the way in third-down defense and red zone defense. In other words, they’ve given up very little of anything on defense and are buoyed by a line that’s both talented and deep. Tennessee plays a ton of players up front and has been especially good at forcing key turnovers. In 23 trips inside its own 20-yard line, the Vols have forced six turnovers.
The reality is that Tennessee has played to its defense for much of this season out of necessity. The offense has lacked consistency and struggled to generate explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. It’s not all on redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, either. Iamaleava has thrown only five touchdown passes in six SEC games, and the Vols are tied for 10th with an average of 7.5 yards per completion. Iamaleava, who sustained a head injury in a win over Mississippi State last week, has been the victim of poor pass protection at times, and his receivers have dropped some costly passes. Iamaleava has also been shaky when it comes to overthrowing receivers and occasionally holding onto the ball too long.
The bright spot on offense for Tennessee has been running back Dylan Sampson, who has a school-record 20 rushing touchdowns. He has been a constant for the Vols on offense and has an SEC-leading 772 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in conference play. As good as he has been, the Vols are probably going to need more from their passing game to win in Athens. — Chris Low
The Bulldogs didn’t do much of anything well in last week’s 28-10 loss at Ole Miss, which was the first time in a long time that Kirby Smart’s team was manhandled on the lines of scrimmage.
The good news for Georgia: It’s heading home to Sanford Stadium for the first time in more than a month. Georgia hasn’t dropped back-to-back games in the regular season since 2016, Smart’s first season, and it has bounced back after each of its past eight losses. The Bulldogs have won seven of their past eight games against the Volunteers.
For all of quarterback Carson Beck‘s turnovers, Georgia’s problems on offense probably start up front. The offensive line hasn’t done a good job of protecting him, and the Bulldogs’ lack of a potent running game has prevented them from effectively utilizing play-action passes. Their banged-up offensive line is going to face another formidable defensive front Saturday. Georgia has 27 dropped passes, fourth most in the FBS, according to TruMedia, so its receivers need to become more reliable as well. — Mark Schlabach
The coach behind three of college football’s top passers
Miami‘s Cam Ward, Washington State‘s John Mateer and North Texas‘ Chandler Morris are three of the top five quarterbacks in total offense this season in FBS. All three have the same head coach to thank for where they are today.
North Texas coach Eric Morris coached Ward at Incarnate Word and Washington State, recruited Mateer to the Cougars and signed Morris out of the transfer portal this offseason. All three hailed from Texas and are putting up big numbers this season. Morris, a Mike Leach disciple, knows what he’s looking for when it comes to QBs.
For each one, the journey was different. Ward was a zero-star recruit out of West Columbia, Texas, played in a wing-T offense and had no scholarship offers. But he showed up to Incarnate Word’s camp in 2019 and impressed with his quick release and accuracy. Morris saw appealing traits, too, in Ward’s multisport talents.
“He was such a good basketball player,” Morris said. “He was a bigger guy who could really handle the ball and move with ease. He had a twitch and quickness about him that was almost Mahomes-esque, where he’s not fast but you see him get out of the pocket and scramble and he’s nifty on his feet. He saw the floor great and shot the basketball great.
“It might be easier at an FCS school to take that risk, but it was something we were really confident in.”
Ward came in with extreme confidence, telling coaches he’d win the starting job over their returning all-conference player (and he did). He followed Morris to Pullman, Washington, out of loyalty to the coach who believed in him. Now he’s playing on a big stage, chasing a College Football Playoff bid and a Heisman Trophy with the No. 9 Hurricanes.
“It’s been fun to watch him flourish and get rewarded for being patient all these years,” Morris said.
When Morris left UIW to become Washington State’s offensive coordinator in 2022, he brought Ward but needed another QB. On his first recruiting trip in Texas, he stopped by to check out Mateer. The two-star recruit had a prolific senior season at Little Elm High School but was committed to Central Arkansas. Morris didn’t understand what FBS programs were missing and convinced Mateer to flip.
After two seasons behind Ward, Mateer has emerged as one of the top dual-threat QBs in college football with 2,332 passing yards, 805 rushing yards (excluding sacks) and 33 total TDs.
“I think the sky’s the limit,” Ward said. “He’s just so dang hard to tackle in the open field. Just a kid that loves ball and was under-recruited. The tide’s turned and he ends up being a big-time ballplayer.”
Chandler Morris was not an under-the-radar talent, but he’s having his best season yet at North Texas. He began his career at Oklahoma, won the starting job at TCU in 2022, sustained a knee injury in its season opener and then watched Max Duggan lead the Horned Frogs to the national title game.
Morris had a six-game stint as TCU’s starter last season before injuring the same knee. At UNT, he’s leading the nation’s No. 3 passing offense with 3,244 total yards and 30 TDs. Like Ward and Mateer, he processes information quickly, makes plays with his feet and throws outside the pocket with accuracy. If you ask Eric Morris, those traits are a must in today’s game. When paired with his version of Air Raid ball, you get big-time results.
“It’s been fun to see him get his swagger back,” Morris said.
Eric Morris points to Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. The QBs thriving at the highest level are becoming unstoppable by creating plays out of the pocket. And so are his guys.
“Everybody obviously watches Cam and the magic he makes,” Morris said, “but I think all three of ’em can make plays when it’s not a perfect play call. There are a bunch of really good pure passers nowadays, but that’s what sets them all apart.” — Max Olson
What’s going on in the Big 12?
Two-thirds of the way through the Big 12 schedule, six teams are still in the hunt for a title-game appearance: BYU (6-0), Colorado (5-1), Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State and West Virginia, all of which are 4-2. There are too many variables to discuss all the scenarios, but the conference has a straightforward tiebreaker policy.
It’s possible to come up with scenarios in which the Big 12 could get two bids, one bid or shut out altogether.
For the Big 12 to get two bids, BYU probably would have to finish 12-0, then lose a close game in the championship to a two-loss team (Colorado, Iowa State or Kansas State). A 12-1 BYU team would get consideration, but it would become a question of how far it would fall and what else happens around the country.
The most likely scenario is the Big 12 will get one team in: whichever one wins the conference title game. If BYU wins out, it will have a bye, but if it slips up even once — or if another team wins the title — Boise State might be in position to get a first-round bye, assuming the Broncos win out.
The doomsday scenario in the Big 12 is if the conference champion has two or three losses and Army and Boise State win out. If that’s the case, there is a good possibility both of those schools would be ranked ahead of the Big 12 champion and the Big 12 would be left out. — Kyle Bonagura
Quotes of the Week
“They’re stubborn, man. They’re physical. He is an elite runner. The runs they run are sometimes nontraditional. They run some runs that other people don’t run because of the space in the box. He’s very patient. He hits small creases. He’s hard to tackle. How many touchdowns has he got in the SEC? Twenty-something? That’s crazy. In the SEC? The SEC is the hardest league in the world to run the ball in on because they’ve got the most size defensive lineman, and he continues to do it at a crazy pace to me.” — Kirby Smart on Volunteers tailback Dylan Sampson.
“I never try to take a step back. I try to take a step up. I’m always putting my head out the window. I’m trying to see around the corner, not trying to see straight ahead. It’s normalcy for everybody to see what’s in front of them. I’m trying to see around the corner. That’s the relationship I have with the Lord, to help me see around the corner so I can help navigate these young men as well as the women that’s attached to our program to a better way and a better life. So I don’t get caught up in the ‘You go, boys!’ or the ‘You ain’t nothing.’ You know, if I would’ve listened to you guys earlier, I’ve gotta listen to you now. So I might as well just put some headphones on and block you out. Notice I don’t have a sponsor for headphones, but that would’ve been a good placement for a sponsor.” — Deion Sanders when asked if he takes time to step back and appreciate the magnitude of Colorado’s turnaround.
“I hope anyone who has ambitions about playing in the National Football League, let’s see what you’ve got against Clemson. Let’s see you play your best game here. If you weren’t focused for Virginia, which I can’t imagine you weren’t — and I’m not saying anybody was not focused — but if they didn’t get your focus, I imagine Clemson will get your focus when you put the tape on.” — Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi on whether playing Clemson gets the attention of his players.
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