ESPN MLB insider Author of “The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports”
Major League Baseball publicly released a trove of bat-tracking data today that offers fascinating insights into what makes the best hitters good — and the worst bad. With everything from bat speed to swing length to sweet spot contact measured, it will have a similarly profound effect on hitters that ball-tracking data had on pitchers.
Using the Hawk-Eye tracking system that positions 12 cameras around every major league stadium — including five running at 300 frames per second — MLB has spent more than two years refining the bat-tracking model before releasing it on its Statcast platform. In measuring using the sweet spot about 6 inches below the head of the bat, every swing of every hitter is documented through objective data and ready for analysis.
Here are the basics. The average major league swing is 71.5 mph. The average length of the bat’s path on a swing, start to finish, is 7.3 feet. Hitters square up the ball on one-third of batted balls. The fastest swings typically belong to the most productive players — but not always. The average bat speed for the best hitter in the major leagues this season, Shohei Ohtani: 75.4 mph. The average bat speed for the worst hitter in the major leagues this season, Javier Baez: 75.4 mph.
Just as the advent of the pitch-tracking era prompted changes in training methods to juice velocity and spin, the ability to measure bat speed and paths will likewise change the approaches of hitters in future years. For now, though, in this nascent stage, the data is pure and unadulterated. And it tells us that when it comes to bat speed, there is one man, and then there is everyone else.
The king of bat speed
When Statcast debuted in 2015 and exit velocity jumped to the fore of baseball lexicon, Giancarlo Stanton, then with the Miami Marlins, topped almost every leaderboard. That season, there were 12 balls hit at least 117 mph. One from Mike Trout, one from Nelson Cruz, one from Carlos Gonzalez and nine from Stanton.
The now-New York Yankees slugger’s bat-speed numbers are similarly gaudy. Stanton’s swing, on average, comes in around 80.6 mph — nearly 3 mph higher than the second-fastest swinger, Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz. It’s also consistently fast. Statcast is characterizing all swings over 75 mph as “fast.” Just over 22% of swings reach the 75 mph threshold. Stanton is at 98.0%, nearly 25% ahead of the next best, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber, who swings 75-plus mph 73.9% of the time.
Stanton is also near the top of another category: swing length, where he’s second behind Baez. Height often influences swing length, and at 6-foot-6, it’s no surprise to see Stanton’s swing covering 8.4 feet.
Of course, as Stanton’s struggles in recent years have taught, exit velocity — and now, bat speed — do not by themselves make for a great hitter. Stanton has the single hardest-hit ball in MLB this season at 119.9 mph and the highest average exit velocity on his hardest-hit balls, but he has been only a slightly-above-league-average hitter, batting .230/.283/.452.
The lesson: You can have the fastest swing around, but by no means does it guarantee success.
The anti-Stanton
On the other end of the spectrum is San Diego Padres craftsman Luis Arraez, who can add a new title to his two batting crowns: the slowest bat in baseball. Arráez’s bat speed of 62.4 mph lags 2 mph behind the second-most languid, Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan, and the two are perhaps the best examples of what players without elite bat speed can do to continue thriving in the big leagues.
Arráez and Kwan are part of the cohort of controlled, short swings that get squared up with a phenomenal amount of regularity. Arráez’s swing is just 5.9 feet and Kwan’s 6.4. In the group of sub-68-mph bat speed and sub-6.4-foot swing length are Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang (128 OPS+), Yankees outfielder Alex Verdugo (107) and Toronto Blue Jays DH Justin Turner (111), all of whom are productive offensive players.
One might suggest it’s in spite of their swings, but perhaps it’s better to start treating it like it’s because of them. Arráez leads MLB by squaring up the ball on 43.9% of his swings. To determine whether a pitch has been squared up, the system takes two variables — bat speed and pitch speed — and determines the maximum exit velocity. Then it takes the actual EV on a batted ball and compares it to the peak. If it’s at least 80% of the top-end number, it is deemed to be squared up, because only balls that hit the bat’s sweet spot can produce 80%-plus velocities.
When hitters square up a ball, they bat .372 and slug .659. When they don’t, they hit .127 and slug .144. In other words, even if neither possesses much power, appreciate Arráez, Kwan and others for what they are: masters of the art of hitting.
The perfect marriage of bat speed and precision
Take Stanton, put him into one of those mash-up machines with Arráez, and what do you get?
A swing length of 7.3 feet is the only place where Soto is average. He’s not like Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman and Wyatt Langford, who generate excellent bat speed with short swings. Nor is he like the majority of players who join him near the top of the bat-speed list and generate it using long swings.
No, Soto is just spectacular at what he does. And his outlier status in bat-tracking data validates his place there with production, too.
The best hitter in baseball nobody knows
He has more blasts than Soto and Ohtani.
Only four players have squared up more balls than him, and each is a multitime All-Star.
He doesn’t even swing, on average, as hard as his brother. But that doesn’t matter, because William Contreras — the Brewers’ catcher, younger sibling of St. Louis Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras — does plenty of damage with a 74.2 mph effort. Not only is the 26-year-old Contreras atop the list of blasts, it’s not particularly close: His 58 are ahead of Soto’s 50 and Ohtani’s 46, and his big league-best blast rate of 34.5% is 2½ times the major league average of 13.7%.
The reason for Contreras’ success is clear: He swings hard, hits the ball very hard and doesn’t strike out much (sub-20% punchout rate on the season). It’s an exceptional combination of skills, and to have maintained this offensive output playing every Brewers game, not to mention 33 of 40 at catcher, is MVP-caliber work.
Others this season whose bat skills deserve credit:
Whose profiles are alarming?
While MLB attempted to start tracking swings using Statcast in a limited number of stadiums during the 2022 season, the league only felt confident enough this year to release the full set of numbers. Thus, it’s impossible to know for certain whose swing has gotten faster or slower in recent years.
Here are five players whose swing metrics over the season’s first seven weeks are cause for concern.
Javier Báez, SS, Detroit Tigers: Never has bat speed been a question for Báez, and this season reinforced that. The issue — or one of the issues — is that he lugs his bat through the zone longer than anyone, Stanton included. Baez’s 8.7-foot-long bat path simply doesn’t generate the hard contact it once did, and his .172/.208/.233 line reflects that.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals: Right behind Baez and Stanton in swing length is the 33-year-old Arenado. Long swings can be a good thing — Michael Harris II, Aaron Judge, Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins and Adolis Garcia all rank in the top 10 — but they’re tough on a pull-heavy hitter with well-below-average bat speed. Arenado has clocked in at 69.5 mph this season, and while he’s been an average hitter in a down offensive environment, only a few others (Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve) have found success with long swings and slower bats. All three have low blast rates, which is worth keeping an eye on.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: The 25-year-old has the makings of a good hitter. An average bat speed of 75.6 mph (14th in MLB) and 34 blasts (22nd) portend well. The issue? Guerrero is squaring up the ball at an anemic rate: just 21% of swings and 26.9% of the time on contact. The blasts show that when Vlad does hit the sweet spot, he does significant damage. He just hits the weak part of the bat far too often.
Jorge Soler, DH, San Francisco Giants: As bad as Guerrero has been at squaring up the ball, Soler is markedly worse. His bad speed is the same as Vlad’s at 75.6 mph, but he has the third-lowest squared-up rate on contact. The blasts are even worse: Soler has been the only player in baseball who swings harder than 73.2 mph and can’t muster even a 10% blast rate. Perhaps the right shoulder strain that forced him to the IL a week ago was the culprit? No longer is that a question left to speculation. The data upon Soler’s return will answer it.
Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets: At the bottom of the list is Baty, the clearest example of the anomaly that is high bat speed, weak contact. While Baty doesn’t swing as hard as Soler or Guerrero, his 73.2-mph swing is certainly above average. His MLB-worst 18.0% squared-up rate on contact, on the other hand, is not. Getting out-blasted by Arráez when swinging 11 mph harder than him is a difficult thing to do.
LAS VEGAS — Zach Hyman scored from just above the right circle with 3:02 left to put his team ahead for good, and the Edmonton Oilers rallied yet again this postseason to defeat the Vegas Golden Knights4-2 on Tuesday night in Game 1 of the second-round series.
The Oilers, the defending Western Conference champions who came back from 2-0 down, set an NHL record with their fifth consecutive playoff comeback victory.
“We’re a patient group, we’re a veteran team. The guys here have been playing a lot of playoffs throughout the years,” Edmonton defenseman John Klingberg said. “They know what it takes. Just stick to our game, and take it game by game.”
Vegas, which had just seven shots on goal over the final two periods, lost a playoff game in regulation after leading by at least two goals for the first time. The Golden Knights are 47-4 overall in the postseason with that kind of lead.
Leon Draisaitl had a goal and an assist for the Oilers, and Corey Perry and Connor Brown scored the other goals. Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid each had two assists. McDavid now has four consecutive postseasons with at least 10 assists for fourth best in league history. Calvin Pickard was barely tested after the first period and finished with 15 shots.
“It gives you a great opportunity,” Hyman said of winning the opener on the road. “You steal one in their rink, and now, you have a chance to take both. We haven’t been in that spot a lot. It’s nice to get the first one out of the way early.”
Mark Stone scored both goals for the Golden Knights to tie Jonathan Marchessault‘s franchise record with 36 for his Vegas career. It also extended his goal-scoring streak to three games. Adin Hill made 24 saves.
Both star-studded top lines delivered in the first period, with Stone scoring twice, the first on a double-minor power play. Edmonton’s top unit cut the deficit in half with 3:34 left when Perry deked Hill for an open net with McDavid and Draisaitl getting assists on the play.
Neither team scored in the second period even though the Oilers outshot Vegas 12-1. The Golden Knights had never been held to fewer than two shots on goal in a regulation playoff period.
Edmonton didn’t waste a chance early in the third, tying the score 57 seconds in when Draisaitl backhanded a shot off the boards and off Hill.
Hyman, who earlier in the shift took a stick to the face from Kaedan Korczak, broke the tie in the closing minutes, and Brown sealed the win 1:16 later.
“We were kind of all over the place in the first 10 minutes,” Perry said in speaking with Sportsnet after the win. “But we found our footing, found our game. We started moving the puck, and making plays. And then, we played well defensively, and kept the puck out of our net.”
Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo did not play because of an illness, allowing Korczak to make his first career postseason start. Vegas also was without Pavel Dorofeyev, who led the team with 35 goals this season, for the second game in a row because of an undisclosed injury. Coach Bruce Cassidy has described him as day to day.
Logan Stankoven started the comeback with his goal midway through the third period off a turnover, beating Logan Thompson after Aliaksei Protas‘ errant pass off Washington teammate Alex Alexeyev‘s right skate put the puck on Jesperi Kotkaniemi‘s stick. After failing to score on a power play late in regulation, Slavin scored 3:06 into OT from just inside the blue line to give Carolina the series lead.
The result capped a dominant effort by the road team, despite the fact that it trailed for most of the game. Carolina finished with 33 shots on net, compared with just 14 for Washington. All told, six Hurricanes had at least three shots on net, including Slavin, who finished with five.
“We were all over it, and we knew we had to just throw everything at the net,” Slavin said. “That mentality paid off there at the end.”
Andersen, who wasn’t tested much, allowed only an early second-period goal to Protas in improving to 4-1 this postseason. Andersen was back after getting knocked out of Game 4 and missing Game 5 of the first round against the New Jersey Devils with an apparent head injury.
“Just trying to take what comes my way and be in that moment all the time and just stay with it,” Andersen said. “You don’t know when that next big save’s going to happen.”
Just a week ago, Andersen had to sit and watch as his teammates defeated the Devils in double overtime of Game 5 to secure the series. A week later, he was back, delivering the kind of quality goaltending Carolina has gotten from him whenever he has been healthy.
“Just really been looking forward to this for a while,” Andersen said. “Happy we could start off on the right foot.”
Carolina remained the only team perfect on the penalty kill this postseason, keeping Washington’s power play off the board twice to improve to 17-of-17. That, along with Kotkaniemi and Stankoven taking advantage of Protas’ mistake and Slavin scoring with Seth Jarvis screening Thompson, was the difference.
“I thought our guys played hard every shift. Right from the start of the game, I liked how we were playing,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said. “Obviously, we were down, but yeah, there’s a certain game plan. And I thought we were on it tonight.”
Bailey drove in Christian Koss with a liner to center against Ryan Pressly (2-2). Jung Hoo Lee had a run-scoring single, and Matt Chapman singled home two more runs in San Francisco’s highest-scoring inning of the season.
The nine runs are the most in an extra inning since the Angels scored nine in the 13th inning on Aug. 16, 2009. It is also the highest-scoring extra inning at Wrigley Field, surpassing the seven-run 10th by the New York Giants on June 18, 1921.
Lee also hit a two-run homer as San Francisco bounced back from an ugly 9-2 loss to Chicago on Monday night. Chapman, who committed two of the Giants’ four errors in the series opener, had three hits and scored twice.
The Cubs trailed 5-3 before rallying in the ninth, handing Justin Verlander another no-decision after he was in position for his first win with the Giants.
Justin Turner bounced a pinch-hit RBI single into right field against Ryan Walker. After Ian Happ struck out swinging for the second out, Kyle Tucker greeted Erik Miller (2-0) with a hard grounder back up the middle, bringing home the tying run.
Verlander pitched five innings of three-run ball. The three-time AL Cy Young Award winner signed a $15 million, one-year contract with the Giants in January.
Verlander, 42, is winless in eight consecutive starts for the first time in his 20 major league seasons.
Miguel Amaya hit a two-run homer for NL Central-leading Chicago, which had won four of five. Dansby Swanson had two hits and scored twice while extending his hitting streak to eight games.
Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong robbed Mike Yastrzemski of extra bases with a leaping grab at the wall in the third. Crow-Armstrong also took a hit away from Lee with a sliding catch in the fifth.
ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.