Rishi Sunak will argue that Britain is safer under the Conservatives against the backdrop of two escalating conflicts likely to dominate the week.
In the last few days, the prime minister has broken with US President Joe Biden by insisting the UK should continue to supply arms to Israel.
It comes as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to mount another massive military operation in the southern Gaza town of Rafah against warnings from the US and UK.
Meanwhile, there are fears in Whitehall that Russia could mount an operation on Kharkiv by the end of the week to retake Ukraine‘s second-largest city.
Both operations could trigger wider repercussions.
Amid this worsening global outlook, the Conservatives want to highlight what they say is the gap between Tory and Labour pledges on military spending.
After the initial announcement, Sunak wants to ensure he gets full public credit for the big spending commitment while pushing Labour on its failure to match the promise.
Labour says that the Tory spending plan does not add up.
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18:46
Israel arms embargo ‘not a wise path’
On Monday, Sunak will use a set-piece speech to mount the argument that there is a need for security at home and abroad in an ever-increasingly dangerous world and describe the country as being at a crossroads at the next general election.
In a further major political dividing line, Labour has broken with the government and called this weekend for a suspension of arms to Israel, placing it alongside the United States.
However the Tory government is holding firm, arguing that now is not the time and that Britain only supplies a small amount of the munitions used by Israel.
Some people inside government suggest that the US government position is driven by President Biden’s need to take a tougher position to shore up votes in the upcoming election race.
Sunak’s Monday speech is one part of a set of security-themed announcements by the government, following Lord Cameron’s media blitz at the weekend.
On Monday, deputy foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell will address a Tory-leaning think tank, while on Tuesday Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will make a speech, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaking on Friday.
Also, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will lead a trade delegation this week to Saudi Arabia.
Although boosting trade will be the focus, Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is one of the backchannels used by the UK to deliver messages to Hamas.
Thousands of farmers from across the UK are expected to gather outside Downing Street today – in the biggest protest yet against the government’s changes to inheritance tax rules.
The reforms, announced in last month’s budget, will mean farms worth over £1m will be subject to 20% inheritance tax from April 2026.
Farmers say that will lead to land being sold to pay the tax bill, impact food security and the future of British farming.
The Government insists it is “committed” to the farming industry but has had to make “difficult decisions”.
Farmers from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will arrive in London to hear speeches from agricultural leaders.
Sky News understands TV presenter and farm owner Jeremy Clarkson, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey will also address crowds.
Protestors will then march around Parliament Square.
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‘It’s really worrying’
“It’s unfortunate, as Labour had originally said they would support farmers,” said fourth-generation farmer Will Weaver, who is attending today’s rally.
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His 500-acre cow and sheep farm in South Gloucestershire has been in his family since 1939.
“We’ve probably buried our head in the sand a little bit. I think, back of a fag-packet rough estimates, tax is going to be north of half a million [pounds].”
The government is keen to stress that farmers will get a decade to pay the bill – but that comes as little comfort to Will: “It’s more than our profit in any year that we’ve had in the last 10 years. Dad’s saying we’ll have to sell something. I don’t know if we’ll be able to raise that sort of money through a mortgage. It’s really worrying.”
The Treasury says only the wealthiest estates, around 500 of them, will have to pay under the new rules – claiming 72% of farms won’t be impacted.
But farmers say that calculation is incorrect – citing that DEFRA’s own figures show 66% of farms are valued at over £1m and that the government has undervalued many estates.
At the same time as the rally, the NFU is addressing 1,800 of its members in Westminster before they lobby MPs.
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2:28
The president of the National Farmers’ Union says farmers are feeling
‘Understanding has been betrayed’
Max Sealy represents the NFU Dairy Board in the South of England.
“We have a detailed job to do to explain why this is wrong not just for farming, not just for the countryside and not just for our families, but for the economy in general,” he said.
“This is a bad tax – it’s been badly implemented because it will affect growth productivity in the country.”
He told Sky News Labour made promises to farmers ahead of the election.
“Both Steve Reed and Keir Starmer came to our conference two years ago and told us farming wasn’t a business like any others and that he understood the long-term nature of farming – that understanding has been betrayed,” he said.
In a joint statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Steve Reed said: “Farmers are the backbone of Britain, and we recognise the strength of feeling expressed by farming and rural communities in recent weeks. We are steadfast in our commitment to Britain’s farming industry because food security is national security.
“It’s why we are investing £5bn into farming over the next two years – the largest amount ever directed towards sustainable food production, rural economic growth and nature’s recovery in our country’s history.
“But with public services crumbling and a £22bn fiscal hole that this Government inherited, we have taken difficult decisions.
“The reforms to Agricultural Property Relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on.”
A Met Police spokesperson said it was “well prepared” for the protest and would have officers deployed to ensure it passes off “safely, lawfully and in a way that prevents serious disruption”.