Rishi Sunak will argue that Britain is safer under the Conservatives against the backdrop of two escalating conflicts likely to dominate the week.
In the last few days, the prime minister has broken with US President Joe Biden by insisting the UK should continue to supply arms to Israel.
It comes as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to mount another massive military operation in the southern Gaza town of Rafah against warnings from the US and UK.
Meanwhile, there are fears in Whitehall that Russia could mount an operation on Kharkiv by the end of the week to retake Ukraine‘s second-largest city.
Both operations could trigger wider repercussions.
Amid this worsening global outlook, the Conservatives want to highlight what they say is the gap between Tory and Labour pledges on military spending.
After the initial announcement, Sunak wants to ensure he gets full public credit for the big spending commitment while pushing Labour on its failure to match the promise.
Labour says that the Tory spending plan does not add up.
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18:46
Israel arms embargo ‘not a wise path’
On Monday, Sunak will use a set-piece speech to mount the argument that there is a need for security at home and abroad in an ever-increasingly dangerous world and describe the country as being at a crossroads at the next general election.
In a further major political dividing line, Labour has broken with the government and called this weekend for a suspension of arms to Israel, placing it alongside the United States.
However the Tory government is holding firm, arguing that now is not the time and that Britain only supplies a small amount of the munitions used by Israel.
Some people inside government suggest that the US government position is driven by President Biden’s need to take a tougher position to shore up votes in the upcoming election race.
Sunak’s Monday speech is one part of a set of security-themed announcements by the government, following Lord Cameron’s media blitz at the weekend.
On Monday, deputy foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell will address a Tory-leaning think tank, while on Tuesday Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will make a speech, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaking on Friday.
Also, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will lead a trade delegation this week to Saudi Arabia.
Although boosting trade will be the focus, Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is one of the backchannels used by the UK to deliver messages to Hamas.
Rachel Reeves needs to “make the case” to voters that extending the freeze on personal income thresholds was the “fairest” way to increase taxes, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.
Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the chancellor needed to explain that her decision would “protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes”.
In her budget on Wednesday, Ms Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds – introduced by the Conservatives in 2021 and due to expire in 2028 – by three years.
The move – described by critics as a “stealth tax” – is estimated to raise £8bn for the exchequer in 2029-2030 by dragging some 1.7 million people into a higher tax band as their pay goes up.
Image: Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA
The chancellor previously said she would not freeze thresholds as it would “hurt working people” – prompting accusations she has broken the trust of voters.
During the general election campaign, Labour promised not to increase VAT, national insurance or income tax rates.
He has also launched a staunch defence of the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap, with its estimated cost of around £3bn by the end of this parliament.
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4:30
Prime minister defends budget
‘A moral failure’
The prime minister condemned the Conservative policy as a “failed social experiment” and said those who defend it stand for “a moral failure and an economic disaster”.
“The record highs of child poverty in this country aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet – they mean millions of children are going to bed hungry, falling behind at school, and growing up believing that a better future is out of reach despite their parents doing everything right,” he said.
The two-child limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.
The government believes lifting the limit will pull 450,000 children out of poverty, which it argues will ultimately help reduce costs by preventing knock-on issues like dependency on welfare – and help people find jobs.
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8:46
Budget winners and losers
Speaking to Rigby, Baroness Harman said Ms Reeves now needed to convince “the woman on the doorstep” of why she’s raised taxes in the way that she has.
“I think Rachel really answered it very, very clearly when she said, ‘well, actually, we haven’t broken the manifesto because the manifesto was about rates’.
“And you remember there was a big kerfuffle before the budget about whether they would increase the rate of income tax or the rate of national insurance, and they backed off that because that would have been a breach of the manifesto.
“But she has had to increase the tax take, and she’s done it by increasing by freezing the thresholds, which she says she didn’t want to do. But she’s tried to do it with the fairest possible way, with counterbalancing support for people on low incomes.”
She added: “And that is the argument that’s now got to be had with the public. The Labour members of parliament are happy about it. The markets essentially are happy about it. But she needs to make the case, and everybody in the government is going to need to make the case about it.
“This was a difficult thing to do, but it’s been done in the fairest possible way, and it’s for the good, because it will protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes.”
The football associations of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have officially launched and released more details about their joint bid for the 2035 Women’s World Cup.
If the bid is successful, it would be the first football World Cup hosted in the UK since 1966, and the largest single-sport event ever staged in the country.
The bid includes 22 proposed stadiums – 16 in England, three in Wales, two in Scotland and one in Northern Ireland – across 16 host cities.
Organisers claim it would be the most accessible tournament ever, with 63 million people living within two hours of a proposed venue.
They predict the tournament would generate 4.5 million ticket sales and have a projected global TV audience of 3.5 billion.
The tournament would involve 104 matches contested by 48 teams over 39 days, with 48 team base camp training sites, 82 venue-specific training sites and 32 FIFA Fan Festival Sites proposed.
In a joint statement, the CEOs of the various football associations, said: “We are proud of the growth that we’ve driven in recent years across the women’s and girls’ game.”
They added that: “A Women’s World Cup in the UK has the power to turbo charge the women’s and girls’ game both in the UK and globally.”
Where would the matches be played?
The bid details the host cities and stadiums as follow:
• Belfast – The Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park
• Birmingham – The Sports Quarter Stadium and Villa Park
• Brighton & Hove – The American Express Stadium
• Bristol – Ashton Gate
• Cardiff – Cardiff City Stadium and Principality Stadium
• Edinburgh – Easter Road
• Glasgow – Hampden Park
• Leeds – Elland Road
• Liverpool – The Hill Dickinson Stadium
• London – Chelsea FC Stadium, Emirates Stadium, Selhurst Park, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley Stadium connected by EE
• Manchester – Etihad Stadium
• Trafford – Old Trafford
• Newcastle – St James’ Park
• Nottingham – The City Ground
• Sunderland – Stadium of Light
• Wrexham – STōK Racecourse
However, some of the stadiums mentioned above were merely the ones put forward in the official bid and are likely to change after the construction of new stadiums are completed.
The manager of an Edinburgh cocktail bar will speak to police today over the “catastrophic” theft of an eight-foot tall nutcracker figure from outside his venue.
In what can only be described as a total nightmare before Christmas, a person riding an e-bike guaranteed a place on the naughty list by stealing the Copper Blossom’s festive statue on Monday.
They are seen on CCTV placing the soldier across their lap and riding off into the night down George Street towards St Andrew Square.
Image: The thief was wearing a dark hoodie
Speaking to The UK Tonight on Sky News, manager Paul Paxton said it was a massive financial blow for his bar.
“The individual nutcrackers are about £900 each,” he revealed.
The stolen one is named Nolan, while his “brother” Nelson remains “safe and sound”.
They were part of the Copper Blossom’s outdoor Christmas display, and Nelson has now been moved into the foyer.
Mr Paxton said he would be speaking to police about their investigation, with sightings having been reported “around Edinburgh” later on the night of the incident.
Nolan, who the owner described as “massive”, was taken at around 10.10pm. The CCTV footage shows the thief removing the statue and dragging it on to their bike.
Image: You can see Nolan being taken away in this shot
As if losing a £900 nutcracker wasn’t bad enough, a table costing hundreds of pounds was also broken.
“It’s pretty catastrophic,” said Mr Paxton.
The bar had originally put out an appeal that said “if you return it, we’re all good” – but he admitted he doesn’t expect Nolan’s return any time soon.
Image: Paul Paxton is dwarfed by his nutcracker soldiers
And while he’d “never want someone to go into harm’s way”, he told Jayne Seckerhe was a little disappointed no witnesses alerted him or his staff to the theft.
“There were about 12 or 13 people who walked past,” he said.
“Even if someone had run in, that could have helped. It wasn’t a quick process – he fell off his bike.