
What a possible multibillion-dollar NCAA antitrust settlement means for college sports
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1 year agoon
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Dan Murphy
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ESPN Staff Writer
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Pete Thamel
May 13, 2024, 09:00 AM ET
The NCAA and its schools are considering a proposed solution to one of the largest looming obstacles remaining for a landmark settlement of the association’s antitrust cases, which could shape the future of major collegiate sports in America.
With the college sports industry aiming to avoid future antitrust lawsuits, the terms of a settlement would establish an annual process giving new players a chance to opt in or object to revenue-sharing terms currently being negotiated as part of the emerging framework for the future business model of the NCAA’s top schools.
The NCAA and its most powerful conferences are in the thick of working toward settling the House v. NCAA case this month, with sources saying leagues are planning to vote on a proposed deal by May 23. ESPN spoke to more than a dozen legal and industry experts in college sports this week to better understand the ongoing negotiations.
The tentative terms of the settlement include the NCAA paying more than $2.7 billion in past damages as well as setting up a system for its most powerful conferences to share a portion of their revenue with athletes moving forward. One major obstacle to reaching a settlement has been finding a way for the NCAA and its schools to protect themselves from future lawsuits, including potential claims they would be colluding to cap player compensation without using a collective bargaining agreement.
Steve Berman, the co-lead counsel representing athletes in the House case, told ESPN he and his team have proposed a solution that would extend the class-action settlement on an annual basis. In this scenario, athletes would receive a notice each year providing them with the opportunity to object to the terms of the revenue-share agreement. Berman said those athletes would then have the chance to attend a hearing and persuade the judge that the revenue-share arrangement was unfair in order to push for a change.
“Each year we would have a hearing where any new athlete who wasn’t previously bound [by the settlement] can come and object,” Berman said. “They would have to come and say, ‘I don’t think this is fair.’ That would be a hard burden to prove.”
An NCAA spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Some athlete organizers say they are skeptical a rolling annual opt-in mechanism would be enough to dissuade future players from filing lawsuits to push for a bigger share of money in future years.
Sources say revenue sharing with athletes would begin, at the earliest, in the summer of 2025. The settlement would also serve to resolve three other active antitrust lawsuits against the NCAA.
The details of a settlement and their implications on how schools spend their money remain in flux. But with leagues expected to vote within the next two weeks, details are growing more clear as leaders in the industry weigh their options and sort through several remaining questions about how a future business model will work.
Why would an annual hearing be necessary?
In professional sports, the amount of revenue a league shares with its players is typically negotiated through a collective bargaining agreement between the league and a players’ union. Collective bargaining agreements completed with a certified union are exempt from antitrust challenges in court. That legal protection would not apply, however, in college sports if athletes are not deemed to be employees when schools start sharing their revenue.
The NCAA and its schools have been firmly opposed to a model where athletes are viewed as employees.
There are multiple pending cases in front of the National Labor Relations Board where athletes and their advocates are arguing that players should be employees and have the right to unionize, but those cases could take years to reach a conclusion. Others such as the College Football Players Association — one of several groups seeking to organize college athletes — have proposed asking Congress to create a special status for college athletes that would allow them to collectively bargain without being employees. But again, Congress has been slow to reach consensus on any federal legislation that could help chart a course forward for college sports despite several years of requested help from the NCAA.
The current House case is a class-action lawsuit that applies to all current Division I college athletes. That means future college athletes would not be bound by the terms of a settlement reached this year. Berman and his colleagues are hoping that giving each incoming group of new players an option to join the class will provide the schools with enough confidence that their agreement will be hard to challenge with future litigation.
What are the chances of a settlement happening?
There are so many moving parts that nothing is definitive, but sources from both sides of the case appear to be optimistic they are making substantial progress toward a settlement.
The NCAA has worked furiously toward settling, including agreeing to pick up the more than $2.7 billion in past damages over the next 10 years. If the case goes to trial and a judge rules against the NCAA, the association and its schools could be on the hook for more than $4 billion in damages.
Sources told ESPN that NCAA president Charlie Baker was in Washington, D.C., on Thursday meeting with more than a half-dozen Senators, a previously scheduled trip where he’s staying engaged with current Senate leaders about potential future legislation.
The belief in the industry is that all the power conferences have the majority votes to settle, which will be up to their schools’ top administrators. There are a few individual schools that are skeptical of settling — some of those overlap with the schools that supported the idea of forming a new “super league” that would radically reshape the entire structure of college athletics. While some believe a more complete overhaul is needed, sources told ESPN there’s essentially zero chance of a super league emerging in the near future.
To the majority, the idea of a league deciding to battle Berman and fellow lead attorney Jeffrey Kessler in court and face billions in damages isn’t too appetizing — especially with the NCAA paying the back damages.
Here’s the breakdown of the landscape, according to multiple industry sources: The Big Ten is generally on board with settling. The SEC has some detractors of settling but is trending to a majority. The Big 12 is expected to follow along. There’s some dissension in the ACC, which has amplified why Florida State and Clemson are suing to leave the league, but sources say it’s unlikely the ACC will end up voting against it.
It’s also important to note here that a vote for settling doesn’t mean all of the key details will have been ironed out. The notion of capping the size of a team’s roster as part of this new business model, for example, has generated buzz in athletic director and coaching circles. But details like what a football roster would be capped at — and the fate of walk-ons — are not expected to be decided until after the vote, per sources.
“It’s so early in that conversation, it’s hard to speculate,” a source said. “There’s a lot more work there. You want to build consensus across multiple conferences.”
Also, any potential help from Congress that Baker is courting wouldn’t come until well after the settlement.
“It gives us a better hand to play with Congress,” an industry source said. “They were looking for something from us. This injects a lot in that conversation. This is a good start.”
How much money will schools be spending on future payments to athletes?
Sources told ESPN that while terms could change, the current proposal would create a spending cap for each power-conference school based on 22% of the average media rights, ticket sales and sponsorship revenue of each power-conference school. Sources say they expect that cap number to be nearly $20 million per school. Schools would not be required to spend that much money on their athletes but would have the option to share up to that $20 million figure with them.
The cap number could change every few years to reflect changes in the overall revenue of schools. It’s not clear whether some money the schools already provide to their athletes — such as an academic reward of roughly $6,000 commonly referred to as Alston payments — would count toward that cap. Multiple sources did tell ESPN that donations from boosters are not included in the revenue formula.
How will they divide that money among their athletes?
There are no specific provisions in the proposed settlement that spell out how schools should distribute money to athletes, according to sources. Each individual school would be responsible for deciding which athletes to pay and sorting through the uncertainty around how that money would apply to Title IX regulations, per multiple sources.
Title IX requires colleges to provide equal opportunities for men and women to compete in varsity sports and provide equitable benefits to those athletes. The law, written long before athletes were earning money beyond their scholarships, does not clearly state how the federal government views direct payments to athletes. Does equitable treatment require a school to give the same dollar amount to men and women athletes in the new revenue-share model? Or would the payments be viewed more as a benefit that could be proportional to the money generated by each sport? Would scholarship dollars and additional revenue-share dollars be considered in the same financial category when balancing the Title IX ledgers?
“The truth is, no one knows,” a source told ESPN on Friday.
While the Department of Education or Congress could provide answers proactively, neither has demonstrated any urgency to do so at this point. Specific interpretations of Title IX often come through litigation, and in this instance, a group of athletes might need to file a lawsuit about how their school is handling these direct payments to establish clarity.
Until then, the most conservative approach for schools to ensure Title IX compliance would mean evenly splitting the new revenue-share dollars between men and women athletes. Sources say some schools might try to balance the overall spending by increasing scholarship opportunities on their women’s teams, but it remains unclear whether that would satisfy Title IX regulations. Others might seek a competitive advantage in football recruiting, for example, by arguing that equitable treatment for athletes in the case of revenue sharing should be based on the revenue their sports generate.
Sources also said the settlement won’t require schools to share money with all athletes or share it evenly among athletes — leaving those decisions up to individual athletic departments as well.
What happens to collectives and NIL payments?
According to a source, the settlement does not include any provision that would put an end to the booster collectives that currently serve as the main vehicle for paying athletes. School officials hope a settlement will create a way to strengthen the NCAA’s ability to enforce its rules, including its rule that requires NIL payments to be for a player’s market value as opposed to the current system, which frequently serves as a workaround for “pay-for-play” arrangements. However, drawing a distinction between those two types of payments would remain a difficult, nebulous task. Any attempt to completely eliminate the NIL collective market would take a substantial change in federal law provided by Congress.
The NCAA has created new rules this spring that allow schools to be more directly involved in finding NIL deals for their athletes. New state laws are also opening doors for the schools to use their own money to pay for an athlete’s NIL rights as opposed to those funds coming from a third party. The extent to which each school continues to be involved in finding NIL opportunities for its athletes in a future with revenue sharing could vary significantly.
“The feeling in the industry is that collectives are going to be forced to stay outside the universities, and it will become more of a discrepancy of the haves and have-nots,” said an industry source. “If you bring collectives in, any money raised would count toward the cap. But schools can hit the cap and still have collectives as third parties. That’s the fear, and why there needs to be regulation.”
What does this mean for major college basketball and leagues outside power conferences?
It’s still relatively uncertain how this would impact major college basketball schools outside of the power conferences.
Schools in the Big East, which is the most prominent basketball-forward league in the country, haven’t been given any formal guidance on how a settlement would trickle down to their level.
The prevailing sentiment is that leagues outside the power conferences named in the lawsuit, including basketball-forward leagues, will have the opportunity to opt into the same 22% revenue-share formula, which would be applied to their specific revenue.
The most expensive men’s college basketball rosters heading into next season are commanding $5 million to $7 million in NIL payments, per sources. It’s too early to determine whether leagues outside the power football conferences will be able to pay that much through revenue sharing.
The uncertainty about how the power conferences will settle the antitrust claims is leaving many administrators outside those leagues in what they describe as a difficult situation.
“All of the Group of 5 is in a wait-and-see mode, which is a precarious situation,” one source told ESPN. “It is extremely tough to lead athletic departments, universities and conferences and plan for the future — whether that be facilities, NIL, etc. — when you have no seat at the table to make the rules that will impact you.”
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Sports
The secret to Corey Perry’s continued playoff success at age 40
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49 mins agoon
May 25, 2025By
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Ryan S. ClarkMay 25, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Ryan S. Clark is an NHL reporter for ESPN.
DALLAS — Imagine having a career that’s so strong that you’re not even aware that your next goal further enhances your Hall of Fame résumé.
That’s Corey Perry at the moment — and here’s why. His five goals during the 2025 playoffs have placed him in a tie for the second-most goals among the Edmonton Oilers. It further reinforces the narrative that the Oilers might be the deepest of the four remaining teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It does something else too. Although each of his five goals has come with its own sense of significance, Perry’s next playoff goal will be even more special, because he’ll be tied with the legendary Jean Béliveau for the most postseason goals by a player in their age-39 season, according to QuantHockey.
“I think it’s just a love for the game. That’s why I want to play the game for as long as I can,” Perry said. “Once this game passes you by, it’s over, it’s done. There’s no coming back and I’ll move onto something else. That’s why what I want to do is play hockey, have fun and just be part of something.”
Postseasons create champions, challengers — and those who wish they could be either one. They create nostalgia for those who have won a title and are seeking another, and yearning for those who have yet to lift a Stanley Cup.
This particular postseason has provided Perry with the opportunity to grab one more before he eventually calls it a career. He is one of just 30 players that is part of the Triple Gold Club: winning a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Gold medal and the IIHF Men’s World Championship.
While this is still technically his age-39 season, he did turn 40 back on May 16. That makes him the second-oldest player still remaining in the playoffs, behind Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns.
Perry made his NHL debut on Oct. 5, 2005. He scored his first career goal five days later against the Oilers. He has since gone on to score 447 more, register more than 900 points and added a Hart Trophy as regular-season MVP, in a career that is either the same age or older than current young NHL stars such as Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
The notion that Perry’s career is now old enough to play in the NHL adds to the discussion about how and why he is able to perform at such a high level at a time in which more teams are trying to get younger.
“He’s been around so long that he understands that you need to find a role,” Oilers defenseman Troy Stecher said. “He won a Hart Trophy when he was in Anaheim, and he was the best player in the league then. Anyone coming here understands that [Connor McDavid] and [Leon Draisaitl] are probably going to get the majority of power-play time and offensive draws.
“I think with being the player he is and being around for so long, he’s done such a good job of finding a role and excelling in that role. Not just accepting it, but thriving in it.”
OPTIONS ARE EVERYTHING in the postseason. Possessing as many of them as possible enhances a team’s chances of winning.
Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch explained that the veteran winger provides the team with additional line combinations because of his versatility. He can be used on the fourth line or the top line, which is a prime example of how the Oilers have tapped into their depth to reach consecutive conference finals.
That’s when something else becomes clear: Playing Perry alongside Draisaitl and McDavid gives the Oilers three Hart Trophy winners on a single line.
It’s a distinction that no other active lineup in the NHL can claim.
“Throughout the playoffs, we’ve moved him around the lineup with Leon and Connor or just with Leon or with [Mattias] Janmark,” Knoblauch said. “Whatever position he’s been in, whether it’s the first or fourth line, he’s been able to give us quality minutes.”
0:20
Corey Perry gives Oilers 2-0 lead with his second goal
Corey Perry scores his second goal of the first period to give the Oilers a 2-0 lead over the Golden Knights.
A player doesn’t get to be an eight-time 30-goal scorer without talent for finishing scoring chances. At 30 years old, he had 34 goals in 82 games in the 2015-16 season, but he scored a combined 36 goals in the next two seasons — which signaled that he might need to reconfigure how he gets those goals going forward.
Perry started to operate more in a bottom-six role in which he was asked to provide more secondary and tertiary goals than that of a primary scorer. A sign that he was gaining comfort in that new role was when he reached double figures twice with the Tampa Bay Lightning (2021-22 and 2022-23).
It’s why the Oilers acquired him last season as they sought to add more depth in their eventual run to the Stanley Cup final with the idea he could return in 2024-25.
QuantHockey’s data shows that there have been 136 players who have had an age-39 season in NHL history. Perry’s 19 goals this season is the same amount that Jaromir Jagr scored in his age-39 campaign in 2011-12. Perry played 81 games this season, which ties him for 10th place with Brett Hull (2003-04).
Of the 27 players who have scored more goals in their age-39 season than Perry, 12 scored more than nine power-play goals. In Perry’s case, he did the majority of his work away from the power play, with 13 of them coming in 5-on-5 play. Perry is tied with Patrick Marleau and Gary Roberts, as they all had four goals with the extra-skater advantage.
“He’s reliable because he’s smart. He can read the play,” Knoblauch said. “Obviously, the speed isn’t there like other players. But he thinks at it so much better than others. One [thing] Corey is really good at is scoring goals. This year being pretty much in a fourth-line role to score 19 goals. I’m not sure how many he had on the power play in the regular season, but it was very low. For him to do that in his role says a lot.”
STARTING HIS CAREER with the Anaheim Ducks gave Perry the platform to become one of the best players of his generation, win a Stanley Cup and become someone whom Oilers teammate Evander Kane said is a future Hall of Famer.
It also gave him a front-row seat to study how future Hall of Famers such as Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger and Teemu Selanne prolonged their careers.
Niedermayer played until he was 36. Pronger made it to 37, whereas Selanne became one of 12 players in NHL history to play until he was 43.
“When you’re 22 years old, you’re sitting back and just watching. You don’t really do any of it but you might do some of it,” Perry said. “But when you see them do it everyday and continue to do it and when you get to a certain age, you’ve got to put in the work. If you don’t, these young guys coming in are bigger, faster and stronger, and you’ve got to keep up and do it at a high level.”
Every generation of players has its life cycle. Perry was part of the famed 2003 NHL draft class that gave the league future stars such as Patrice Bergeron, Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marc-Andre Fleury, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Pavelski, Zach Parise, Brent Seabrook, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter and Burns.
At one point, each of those aforementioned players were franchise cornerstones, and many won Stanley Cups. For the reverence they earned, they also understood what came with aging in a way previous generations didn’t quite encounter in the same way.
The group entered the NHL at a time in which younger players didn’t receive the most minutes, nor were they paid the most money. It’s a complete contrast to the contemporary landscape in which teams place a premium on younger players being trusted in key roles early, which then translates to signing bigger contracts.
A byproduct of that shift was that it heightened the expectations for players of a certain age to meet a physical threshold by placing a premium on body maintenance. It’s why many of them were able to play beyond age 35 by taking on various roles on their respective teams — and not necessarily on the top line or pairing.
Even then, there are limits. Parise and Pavelski retired at the end of last season not having won a Stanley Cup. Fleury, who won three Cups, announced his retirement this season. Burns, Perry and Suter are still active. So what’s the secret?
“It’s the off-ice work. It’s dietary. It’s everything,” Perry said. “It’s just about doing those different things that you can to keep your body in the best shape.”
0:46
Corey Perry tips in power-play goal for the Oilers
Corey Perry gets the Oilers on the board with a power-play goal in the second period.
Kane, who turns 34 in August, said that as someone on the back half of his career, he’s starting to understand that age is just a number. But, there are advantages to having older players in a dressing room because of their range of experiences.
Over the past two years, the Oilers have been the oldest team in the NHL. Elite Prospects lists them as having an average age of 30, while last season’s team averaged 29.2 years. Possessing that much experience has fed into a blueprint in which 11 of the players that the Oilers dressed in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals have more than 70 games of playoff experience.
Four Oilers — Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl and McDavid — have combined to appear in 342 playoff games. Perry has 227 games of postseason experience.
Another detail that the 6-foot-3 and 205-pound Perry provides to the Oilers is size. The Oilers are the fifth-tallest and fifth-heaviest team in the NHL. The team that was tallest and heaviest this season was the Vegas Golden Knights — a club that the Oilers beat in five games in order to advance to the Western Conference finals.
“With Pears, he’s been really good and really good in front of the net,” Kane said. “He’s been scoring some big, key goals at key moments for us which is obviously huge. He’s a guy that’s going to be in the Hall of Fame someday, right? He’s been a superstar player in the league for some time.
“When you have that type of pedigree and you’ve been in the league that long, you understand how to play the game and when you have different skill sets, not just one, you’re able to contribute in different ways and he’s able to do that.”
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Stars-Oilers Game 3 preview: Which team wins this pivotal showdown?
Published
49 mins agoon
May 25, 2025By
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We’ve got a series, folks! The Edmonton Oilers rallied back from a 6-3 loss in Game 1 in dominant fashion, winning Game 2 over the Dallas Stars 3-0.
That sets up a pivotal Game 3 in the Western Conference finals Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+), as both teams look to gain an edge.
Here are notes on the matchup from ESPN Research, as well as betting intel from ESPN BET:
More from Game 2: Recap | Grades
Matchup notes
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 3 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
With the series tied 1-1, the series winner odds on ESPN BET have flipped: The Oilers are now -140 favorites (previously +160), and the Stars are +120 (previously -190). The Oilers’ Cup winner odds are now +200 (+350 after Game 1), while the Stars’ are now +325 (+200 after Game 1). Connor McDavid (+300) has the second-shortest odds to win the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky tops that table at +250.
The Oilers are 9-2 in their past 11 games this postseason after beginning the playoffs 0-2 and have run their record to 3-2 in Games 2 of a conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals after losing the series opener. The other wins were in 1987 and 1991.
The Stars were shut out for the fourth time this postseason. No team has ever been shut out four times prior to reaching the Stanley Cup Final. The most was three, done by the 1950 Detroit Red Wings, 1997 Red Wings, 2012 New Jersey Devils … and 2020 Stars.
By blanking the Stars in Game 2, Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner recorded a shutout in his first three wins of a postseason, the ninth goaltender to pull off that feat. The previous eight: Marty Turco in (2007, Stars), Nikolai Khabibulin (2004, Tampa Bay Lightning), Ed Belfour (2004, Toronto Maple Leafs), Patrick Lalime (2002, Ottawa Senators), Brent Johnson (2002, St. Louis Blues), Martin Brodeur (1995, Devils), Turk Broda (1950, Maple Leafs), Dave Kerr (1940, New York Rangers)
Leon Draisaitl and McDavid are the fourth set of teammates in the past 25 years with 20 points in consecutive postseasons, joining Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins, 2008-09), Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel (Penguins, 2017-18) as well as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point (Lightning, 2020-2021). The Penguins won the Cup in two of those seasons (2009, 2017), while the Lightning won in both 2020 and 2021.
Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard registered his 23rd career multipoint playoff game, all in the last four seasons. This is the most in a four-postseason span by a defenseman in Stanley Cup playoffs history — the old record was 22, by current Oilers assistant coach Paul Coffey.
Stars winger Mikko Rantanen failed to score a goal for the fifth consecutive game after scoring nine in a previous six-game span this postseason. The five-game goalless drought is Rantanen’s second-longest streak in his tenure with Dallas, behind a seven-game streak from March 14-26. Rantanen has one goal in seven games vs. the Oilers this season (two with Colorado, one with Carolina, four with Dallas).
Heading into Game 3, Miro Heiskanen has 13 career multipoint games in the playoffs, tied with Sergei Zubov for the most by a defenseman in North Stars/Stars franchise history.
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is climbing the leaderboard for playoff wins by a U.S.-born netminder. His 32 are tied for fourth with Jon Casey and Frank Brimsek, behind Tom Barrasso (61), Jonathan Quick (49) and Mike Richter (41).
Scoring leaders
GP: 13 | G: 6 | A: 14
GP: 15 | G: 9 | A: 11
Sports
Which NL powerhouse has the edge? Sizing up 7 games in 14 days between the Dodgers and Mets
Published
49 mins agoon
May 25, 2025By
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Jorge Castillo
CloseJorge Castillo
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
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Alden Gonzalez
CloseAlden Gonzalez
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
May 23, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are about to see a whole lot of each other.
The defending World Series champions and the team they beat to win the National League pennant last fall play three games this weekend at Citi Field and four games at Dodger Stadium starting June 2. For those of you scoring at home, that’s seven matchups in a span of 14 days.
Both teams enter Friday’s opener in back-and-forth battles for first place in their respective divisions. How will their head-to-head play dictate the state of the NL East and West? Will they clash again come October? And who has the edge — both for now and if/when they cross paths in the playoffs?
ESPN MLB writers Jorge Castillo (based in New York) and Alden Gonzalez (based in Los Angeles) answer a few key questions about the Mets and Dodgers.
What has stood out most to you about each team’s strong start to the season?
Castillo: The starting rotation was identified as the Mets’ weakness before the season, especially after Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas sustained injuries during spring training. That has not been the case so far. Instead, the Mets own the best rotation ERA in the majors with a quintet of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning toeing the rubber. The group has stumbled recently, and its innings total ranks in the bottom half of the majors. But the collective performance has allowed the Mets to overcome slow starts from various position players — most notably, Juan Soto.
Gonzalez: The emergence of three young players in particular: Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages. Rushing, the team’s most promising prospect outside of Roki Sasaki, torched Triple-A and prompted the Dodgers to cut ties with their longtime backup catcher, Austin Barnes. Kim, signed out of South Korea last offseason, did the same, then performed so well in the majors the Dodgers swallowed the remaining $13 million or so in Chris Taylor’s contract. Pages, meanwhile, went from being uncertain if he’d crack the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as an everyday player.
Their success underscores what has made the Dodgers the Dodgers: No matter how bloated their payroll, how poor their draft position or how often they trade prospects for veterans, they always seem to have that next wave coming.
Despite all the positives so far, what is your biggest concern about each team?
Castillo: Regression seems inevitable for the Mets’ starting rotation (unless it’s going to maintain an ERA under 3 all season). Add that to the recent bullpen injuries — namely losing A.J. Minter for the season — and the defense’s troubles, and run prevention could become a bigger issue for the Mets as the season progresses. Defensive lapses were apparent during last weekend’s Subway Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, when Mark Vientos made two errors that cost runs and Pete Alonso’s errant throw allowed the go-ahead run to score in the finale. Francisco Lindor, a perennial Gold Glove contender, hasn’t been himself at shortstop, and the corner outfield spots are below average. It’s a recipe that would call for more offense.
Gonzalez: When the Dodgers concluded their fourth homestand of the season earlier this week, 14 pitchers resided on their injured list — seven in the rotation, seven in the bullpen. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Sasaki are all nursing shoulder injuries with nebulous timetables, severely compromising the rotation and forcing the bullpen to lead the majors in innings. That bullpen, meanwhile, is without four critical high-leverage options in Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, leaving Dodgers manager Dave Roberts with few, if any, trusted right-handed options to hold leads late. Dodgers pitchers continue to get hurt at an alarming rate. And not even this team can overcome that rate of injury.
Who is one x-factor who could make or break each team’s season?
Castillo: Soto, by most standards, is not having a bad season at the plate. Many players would gladly take an OPS over .800. But he signed a $765 million contract to be one of the best hitters in the sport, and he’s been far from one of those. If Soto can unlock his usual form, and there’s nothing in his track record to suggest he won’t, the Mets’ lineup becomes a different animal. Soto, at his best, makes hitters around him better. He works pitchers. He shuffles and he swaggers. The Mets haven’t seen that version yet. The body language isn’t quite right and the production isn’t there. That’ll need to change for them to become legitimate pennant contenders in a loaded National League.
Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani has been just as much an offensive force as he was last year, when he became the first full-time designated hitter to collect an MVP Award. But there’s a whole other half waiting to be unlocked. Ohtani is going through his pitching progression slowly. At this point it doesn’t seem as if he’ll join the rotation until sometime in July at the earliest — 22 months after his second UCL repair. The Dodgers backed him off his progression ahead of the season opener, they say, in hopes of not wearing him out and providing him with the best chance of being a factor in October. If he looks anything like he did on the mound from 2021 to 2023, he will be.
Who has tougher competition to win their division: The Mets in the NL East or the Dodgers in the NL West?
Castillo: The NL West has more playoff contenders (four to three), but the quality of competition in the NL East is better. The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champs, arguably have the best starting rotation in the majors with an experienced lineup that has been through it all. And the Atlanta Braves are back on track, reaching .500 after their ugly 0-7 start to the season, without much contribution from their two best players. Spencer Strider, activated from the injured list this week, has made only two starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn’t played in a game yet. All three teams are real October threats.
Gonzalez: It’s the NL West, because that fourth legitimate playoff contender could end up making a big difference in a tight race. The Mets still have a combined 16 games remaining against the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Dodgers can only beat up on the Colorado Rockies, who they’ll face 10 more times. And while the Phillies are great and the Braves are more dangerous than their record indicates, one can make a case for the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all being just as good, if not better. Of even more relevance is what the Dodgers will face in the ensuing weeks — 26 straight games against teams with a winning record, with the last 10 coming against division rivals.
These teams play seven times in the next 14 days. Give us your prediction for the series and the stars.
Castillo: This is shaping up to be a battle between a struggling pitching staff (Dodgers) and a struggling offense (Mets). Let’s go with Dodgers 4, Mets 3, because the Dodgers have one more home game. The Dodgers’ big three of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will power them to a season series victory.
Gonzalez: Betts got off to a slow start offensively, but he recently unlocked something in his swing and has started to round back into form of late. He’ll put his imprint on these matchups, but the Mets will win most of the games for a simple reason: On days when Yoshinobu Yamamoto does not pitch, the Dodgers don’t really know what they’ll get from their starting pitchers.
Which pitching rotation will be better come October: The Dodgers’ star-studded but oft-injured group or the Mets’ currently producing but lesser-known starters?
Castillo: It’s not even Memorial Day. These rotations could look completely different come October. But, for now, I’ll take the Dodgers. They’re bound to have at least a few of those star pitchers healthy for the postseason. If not, something went terribly, terribly wrong.
Gonzalez: The Dodgers’ priority this offseason wasn’t Soto. It was Snell. They chased him early and lavished him with $182 million because they knew pairing Snell with Glasnow and Yamamoto would give them a devastating trio for October. If those three are available then, I’m taking the Dodgers. But there’s no telling if that will be the case.
If these teams earn a rematch of the 2024 NLCS this October, who are you taking and why?
Castillo: Assuming health, the Dodgers because they’re better in every department.
Gonzalez: The Mets played the Dodgers tough last year, then signed the new Ted Williams. The Dodgers beat them despite a shorthanded rotation, then added arguably the two most coveted starting pitchers in Snell and Sasaki. Now the Mets and Dodgers are separated by one game, with near-identical run differentials. More than four months of the regular season remain. I plead the Fifth.
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