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Most Americans face tax hikes starting in 2026, and the increased federal tax bite will come about without Congress lifting a finger. That’s because 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires at the end of 2025, and despite some politicians’ contrary claims, a majority of Americans benefited from that law. The end of tax cuts for so many people necessarily results in corresponding increases to come.

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Δ Tax Cuts for Most, but With a Time Limit

“Unless Congress acts, the vast majority of Americans will see higher, more complicated taxes beginning in 2026 as major provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 expire,” warns the Tax Foundation. “The TCJA reduced average tax burdens for taxpayers across the income spectrum and temporarily simplified the tax filing process through structural reforms. It also boosted capital investment by reforming the corporate tax system and significantly improved the international tax system.”

The widespread benefits of the TCJA shouldn’t be a matter for debate. But there’s confusion because Team Biden and fans of high taxes fibbed about the law leading up to the 2020 presidential election.

“Biden’s false claim that no one but the rich got Trump’s tax cuts,” headlined a 2019 Washington Post Glenn Kessler piece about the debate over the law. “Most Americans received a tax cut,” he added.

“About 65 percent of households paid less in individual income taxes in 2018 as a result of the TCJA,” wrote the Tax Policy Center’s Howard Gleckman. “About 6 percent paid more. The rest paid about the same.”

Adjusting for all federal taxes under pre-TCJA law, the Cato Institute’s Chris Edwards commented, “lower? and middle??income groups received the largest relative individual income tax cuts.”

So, there’s widespread agreement that a law which cut taxes for most Americans is poised to expire, resulting in higher taxes. But, just as the benefits of the tax cuts varied across the population, so will the size of the bite taken by tax increases starting in 2026. Tax Hikes for All

“The largest average tax hikes would be experienced by taxpayers who reside in California’s congressional districts,” note the Tax Foundation’s Garrett Watson and Erica York. “For example, the congressional district covering the San Francisco area would see an average tax hike of $16,127 per taxpayer, the highest in the U.S. By contrast, northern New York City would see an average tax increase of $807 per taxpayer under TCJA expiration.”

That link takes you to a tool that lets you look up the estimated impact of TCJA expiration on taxpayers in states and congressional districts across the country.

Separately, the Tax Foundation published a tax calculator that lets you estimate the impact of TCJA expiration on you and your family, given specifics such as marital status, income, number of children, and choice of standard or itemized deductions. The calculator accounts for “most aspects of the federal individual income tax code except provisions related to business and self-employed income.”

That said, extending the TCJA’s tax cuts has high costs of its own since that would reduce the amount of money collected by the federal government to spend on its projects. Tax Cuts and Tradeoffs

“Federal tax revenues would fall by more than $4 trillion on a conventional basis and by nearly $3.5 trillion on a dynamic basis over the coming decade; and without spending cuts, debt and deficits would increase,” concedes a May Tax Foundation report on options regarding the law.

“By the year 2050, permanent extension of TCJA laws would reduce federal revenues from 18.4 percent to 17.1 percent of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” Jagadeesh Gokhale and Mariko Paulson of the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model specify. “Federal debt held by the public would rise from 226.0 percent of GDP to 261.1 percent by 2050.”

But that decrease in revenue and corresponding rise in debt and deficits may matter only if it hampers a serious plan to control the federal government’s ongoing spending spree. Separately, the Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts that “a maximum debt-GDP ratio of 200 percent can be sustained even if investors believe (maybe myopically) that a closure rule will then prevent that ratio from increasing into the future.” They say the real ceiling on federal debt is more like 175 percent of GDP before the financial markets entirely lose faith in the U.S. economy. Debt as a percentage of GDP above that point is disastrous, whether at 226 percent or 261 percent.

It makes sense, then, for Americans to submit to significant tax hikes only if those increases go to balancing the federal budget, eliminating deficits, and controlling debt. Otherwise, we’re going to pay more for what is essentially the same very bad outcome. A Need for Serious Reform

Benefits of extending the TCJA, on the other hand, operate independent of faith in a sudden surge in responsibility among the political class. Extending the law’s provisions “would boost long-run GDP by 1.1 percent and employment by 913,000 full-time equivalent jobs,” according to the Tax Foundation.

For extending the TCJA, the Tax Foundation considers two options, both including modifications that seek to reduce the hit to federal revenues while maximizing gains for individuals. Option 2, for example, “broadens the individual income tax base by ending the income tax exclusion for employer-provided fringe benefits, most notably health insurance.”

That’s a matter of tweaking the current system around the edges to maintain relief for individuals and a faster-growing economy. Tax Foundation experts also propose possible fundamental changes, including entirely dumping the income tax system in favor of a consumption tax. That has the potential to significantly boost personal income as well as GDP and reduce the national debt. Of course, the gains really apply only if the government also reduces spending.

But such fundamental reform is a lot to ask of a political class that spent us into a corner and now wants tax hikes so there’s even more of our money to spend. Letting the TCJA expire requires placing enormous faith in people who got us into a fiscal mess to begin with.

Fundamental reforms to the federal government’s finances are absolutely necessary. Until that happens, we should resist stealth tax hikes so we can keep our hard-earned money for ourselves.

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World

Ukraine is turning warfare into a sci-fi battle of machines – and the West has work to do

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August 26, 2025

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Ukraine is turning warfare into a sci-fi battle of machines - and the West has work to do

Ukrainians say they are in danger of losing the drone arms race with Russia and need more help.

And that is worrying not just for Ukraine, because the drone is becoming the likely weapon of choice in other future conflicts.

Sky News has been given exclusive access to a Ukrainian drone factory to watch its start up ingenuity at work. Ukrainians have turned the drone into their most effective weapon against the invaders.

But they are now, we are told, losing the upper hand in the skies over Ukraine.

General Cherry Drones was started by volunteers at the beginning of the war, making a 100 a month, but is now producing 1,000 times that. The company’s Andriy Lavrenovych said it is never enough.

Andriy Lavrenovych
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Andriy Lavrenovych

“The Russians have a lot of troops, a lot of vehicles and our soldiers every day tell us we need more, we need more weapons, we need better, we need faster, we need higher.”

The comments echo the words of Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who told reporters this week “the Russians have increased the number of drones, while due to a lack of funding, we have not yet been able to scale up.”

The factory’s location is a closely-guarded secret, moved often. Russia strikes weapons factories when it can.

In a nondescript office building we watched drones being assembled and stacked in their thousands. Put together like toys, they are hand assembled and customised.

The quadcopters vary in size, some carry explosives to attack the enemy. Others fly as high as six kilometres to ambush Russian surveillance drones.

A combat drone is prepared by a Ukrainian soldier in the frontline town of Chasiv Yar. Pic:24th King Danylo Separate Brigade/Reuters
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A combat drone is prepared by a Ukrainian soldier in the frontline town of Chasiv Yar. Pic:24th King Danylo Separate Brigade/Reuters

A $1,000 (£743) Ukrainian drone can bring down an enemy aircraft worth 300 times as much.

Downstairs each drone is tested before it’s sent to the front. Nineteen-year-old Dima – not his real name – used to play with drones at home before it was occupied in Kherson Oblast.

Now he works here using his skills to check the drones are fit for battle.

But Russia is catching up. Sinister propaganda released this week filmed at one of its vast new drone factories shows hundreds of Geranium delta wing attack drones lined up ready to be launched at Ukraine.

Russia has refined the technology provided by Iranians to produce faster, more lethal versions of their Shahed drones. They have wreaked havoc and carnage, coming in their hundreds every night and killing scores of civilians. Ukraine expects 1,000 a night in the months ahead.

Russia is using scale and quantity to turn the tables on Ukrainians. And it is mastering drones controlled by fibre optic thread, trailing in their wake, that cannot be jammed.

Read more:
Trump sets red line on Ukraine peace deal support
What would US-backed security guarantees look like?

Oleksandr "Drakar", head of new product development
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Oleksandr “Drakar”, head of new product development

Oleksandr “Drakar”, head of new product development, showed us his company’s prototype fibre optic model. It is more effective than the Russians, he told us, but added: “The Russians began using the technology earlier and have scaled up production.

“They’ve had considerable help from the Chinese – entire factories there are under contract to supply fibre exclusively to Russia, producing it in vast quantities.”

Russia’s Chinese allies, who claim to be neutral in this conflict, are also throttling the supply of microchips and other parts vital to drone production. The West is not doing enough, say Ukrainians, to counterbalance the threat.

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Is NATO ready for drone war?

It is a constant race to beat the other side, innovation met by more innovation. This conflict is revolutionising warfare into a sci-fi battle of machines.

Ukrainians say 80% of battlefield strikes are now carried out by drones.

Whoever has the upper hand with them in this conflict is likely to have the edge in future wars. If the West wants to be on the winning side, it will need to give Zelenskyy and his drone start-up companies more help to maintain their edge.

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UK

Migrants to be deported to France ‘within weeks’ – as Farage vows to scrap human rights law

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August 26, 2025

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Migrants to be deported to France 'within weeks' - as Farage vows to scrap human rights law

Nigel Farage has said he would scrap the UK’s human rights law to enable the mass deportation of illegal migrants, as the government reportedly prepares to send more than 100 small boat arrivals back to France.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph ahead of a speech later today, the Reform leader said the Human Rights Act would be ripped up should he become prime minister.

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He would also take the country out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and other international treaties, describing them as “malign influences” which had been “allowed to frustrate deportations”.

Pulling Britain out of the ECHR would make it one of only three European countries not signed up – the others being Russia and Belarus.

The UK’s Human Rights Act, Reform say, would be replaced by a British Bill of Rights. This would only apply to British citizens and those with a legal right to live in the UK.

Small boat arrivals would have no right to claim asylum. They would be housed at old military bases before being deported to their country of origin, or third countries like Rwanda.

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Will Starmer’s migration tough talk deliver?

One in, one out

Sir Keir Starmer, meanwhile, is said to be ready to implement one of his major policies to tackle the small boats crisis within weeks.

According to The Times, the one in, one out migrant deal he signed with France’s Emmanuel Macron earlier this summer will soon see more than 100 people sent back.

The newspaper reported there are dozens of migrants currently in detention, including some arrested over the bank holiday weekend, who could be among the first sent back to France.

In exchange, the UK would be expected to take an equal number of asylum seekers in France with ties to Britain.

Read more: How will the one in, one out deal work?

Sir Keir Starmer hopes his deal with Emmanuel Macron will help. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer hopes his deal with Emmanuel Macron will help. Pic: Reuters

A record 28,288 people have crossed the Channel in small boats this year. The total is 46% higher than at the same stage last year.

More boats were seen crossing on Monday, though the figures won’t be published by the Home Office until later.

Sir Keir is under mounting pressure within his own party to grip the issue, with Sir Tony Blair’s former home secretary Lord Blunkett warning the public “will turn on” him.

But they may already have – a YouGov poll over the weekend found 71% of people think the prime minister is dealing with the small boats crisis badly.

Protests have taken place outside hotels used to house asylum seekers over the weekend, and the government is braced for more legal challenges from councils over their use.

Labour have taken a battering in the opinion polls throughout 2025, with Reform consistently in the lead.

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Entertainment

Lil Nas X pleads not guilty after being charged with assaulting police officer

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August 26, 2025

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Lil Nas X pleads not guilty after being charged with assaulting police officer

US rapper Lil Nas X has pleaded not guilty after being charged with assaulting a police officer while walking in downtown Los Angeles in his underwear.

The musician, real name Montero Lamar Hill, was taken to hospital and arrested after police responded to reports of a naked man shortly before 6am on Thursday.

The district attorney’s office said on Monday that Lil Nas X faces three counts of battery with injury on a police officer and one count of resisting an executive officer.

He was being held on a $75,000 (£55,457) bail, conditional on attending drug treatment. It is not immediately clear whether he had posted it and been released yet.

He is set to return to court on 15 September for his next pre-trial hearing.

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

During the hearing on Monday, Hill’s lawyer Christy O’Connor told the judge he had led a “remarkable” life, adding: “Assuming the allegations here are true, this is an absolute aberration in this person’s life.

“Nothing like this has ever happened to him.”

A law enforcement source told Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, on Thursday that the Old Town Road and Industry Baby hitmaker punched an officer twice in the face during the encounter.

The source added officers were unsure whether he was on any substances or in mental distress.

Read more from Sky News:
Black cab rapist under investigation
National Guard to begin carrying firearms in DC
Trump says he wants to meet Kim Jong Un again

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NBC News cited TMZ footage where Hill was seen walking down the middle of Ventura Boulevard at 4am on Thursday in a pair of white briefs and cowboy boots.

In the videos, Hill tells a driver to “come to the party” in one clip and in another tells the person: “Didn’t I tell you to put the phone down?”

“Uh oh, someone’s going to have to pay for that,” Hill says as he continues to walk away.

In some clips, Hill struts as if he’s on a catwalk, posing for onlookers, and at one point he places an orange traffic cone on his head.

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