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Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are both facing a historic lack of popularity among ethnically diverse communities, new polling suggests.

While ethnically diverse community voting trends are incredibly complex and almost always hard to predict, some polling can give useful indications that can speak to the mood of the country.

A comprehensive set of data based on polling by Ipsos and shared exclusively with Sky News gives us a general sense of how the leaders of the two main parties are faring at this very specific time.

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Sunak more popular with white voters

Mr Sunak was named the UK’s next leader on the festival of Diwali, serving as a reminder of the milestone in Britain’s evolution as a multicultural and multi-faith society.

He’s the UK’s first prime minister from an ethnically diverse background and the first Hindu prime minister, but in terms of how much ethnically diverse communities have rewarded him for these historic firsts, it’s a somewhat surprising figure.

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Over the past year, his approval rating among ethnically diverse communities is -53.

That figure is historic too – it’s one of the worst of any prime minister in nearly 30 years.

Actually, from these figures, he’s much better liked by white voters – who give him a rating of -41.

This is perhaps unsurprising, given that historically the majority of ethnically diverse communities have voted Labour.

Though support for the Conservatives reached a high of 30% in the first half of 2016 and only falling sharply in the aftermath of Brexit and then in the 2017 general election under a different leader.

Sir Keir behind Blair and Brown

For the Labour Party then, the stakes could not be much higher as they bill themselves as the party of equality and progressive politics and ethnically diverse communities have traditionally rewarded them for it.

The party has consistently held large leads with ethnically diverse community voters over the last few decades and under previous Labour leaders, often given net positive satisfaction levels.

The current leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has a more favourable rating than the current prime minister, with an average satisfaction rating over the past year of -32.

But he is also considerably more popular among white voters.

And when you compare these numbers to previous Labour leaders, it is more stark.

Sir Keir’s standing with ethnically diverse community voters currently is the lowest level a Labour leader has recorded among black and south Asian voters since 1996.

Far worse than the very worst ratings recorded by either Tony Blair (at -11 during the Iraq War) or Gordon Brown (at -13).

‘The Gaza Effect’

Now, there are myriad reasons why individuals and different communities have drifted from the central parties and traditional voting patterns, but Ipsos has outlined one specific thread of dissatisfaction with both parties that they call “The Gaza Effect”.

During by-elections and the recent local elections we saw a wave of independent candidates running on this single issue platform, most prominently George Galloway in Rochdale, but this data shows an indication of how deep that sentiment runs.

When you compare the aggregate satisfactions levels across the year for both leaders, you can see how different ratings become for ethnically diverse communities when compared to white voters.

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For white voters, there’s next to no effect in satisfaction levels towards the two leaders post 7 October.

When you compare that data to the rating ethnically diverse community voters have given the two leaders, there is a noticeable drop in support.

For Mr Sunak the drop is only around 13 points, but for Sir Keir, it is far more significant with a huge fall of 29 points.

The scale of the impact is almost impossible to predict, and the drop in these figures won’t necessarily translate into votes or even seats – but what is clear is these figures show both parties will need to offer ethnically diverse communities much more to win their vote at the next election.

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African economies show high potential for digital asset adoption

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African economies show high potential for digital asset adoption

South Africa emerges as a leading digital asset hub, driving growth in crypto with proactive regulations and expanding platforms like VALR.

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Angela Rayner promises flagship workers’ law next month as she pledges ‘things can get better’

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Angela Rayner promises flagship workers' law next month as she pledges 'things can get better'

Angela Rayner has promised to bring Labour’s flagship workers’ rights bill to parliament next month as she told her party’s conference: “Things can get better if we make the right choices.”

The government has faced criticism in recent weeks over its pessimistic messaging around the economy, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer warning October’s Budget would be “painful” in order to deal with the £22bn “black hole” he claims was left by the Conservatives.

But while his deputy said the party “can’t wish our problems away”, she said “hope won” when Labour achieved its landslide at the last election, adding: “Change has begun.”

Politics live: Rayner speaks at Labour conference

Speaking on the conference floor on the first full day of Labour’s annual gathering, Ms Rayner said: “Let me be blunt. We can’t wish our problems away. We have to face them. That’s the difference between opposition and government.

“But… things can get better if we make the right choices. Sustained economic growth is the only way to improve the lives of working people, and we’re fixing the foundations to put Britain back on the path to growth. No more talking, but doing.”

The deputy prime minister reiterated her party’s plans to improve renters’ rights, including ending no-fault evictions “for good”, as well as promising a “devolution revolution” in the north of England, and the “biggest boost to social and affordable housing in a generation”.

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But some of the biggest cheers from delegates came over her long-trailed plan to increase workers’ rights across the country, with her promising to bring the Employment Rights Bill to the Commons in October.

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Concerns have been raised over the legislation by some in the business community, with an Institute of Directors’ survey earlier this month citing the bill as a reason for pessimism among firms who fear the impact on their operations.

But the government has sought to play down any divide, and held several roundtables with company leaders in recent weeks to allay their fears.

Championing the bill, Ms Rayner said: “They said we couldn’t do it. Some tried to stop it in its tracks. But after years of opposition, we are on the verge of historic legislation to make work more secure, make it more family friendly, go further and faster to close the gender pay gap, ensure rights are enforced and trade unions are strengthened.

“That means repealing the Tories’ anti-worker laws and new rights for union reps too. A genuine living wage and sick pay for the lowest earners, banning exploitative zero-hour contracts and unpaid internships, ending fire and rehire. And we will bring in basic rights from day one on the job.

“This is our plan to make work pay, and it’s coming to a workplace near you.”

Concluding her speech, the deputy prime minister said: “On 4 July, the people entrusted us with the task of change and hope won. Now is our moment, not just to say, but to do.

“Labour governments of the past took on this same challenge at a time when Britain desperately needed change. They delivered a better Britain when the odds were stacked against them.

“And that is exactly what this Labour government must deliver once again. So conference, let’s get on with it.”

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Angela Rayner to announce renters’ protections at opening of Labour Party conference

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Angela Rayner to announce renters' protections at opening of Labour Party conference

Angela Rayner will set out measures to protect renters from fire safety defects, damp and mould in her speech at the Labour Party conference.

The deputy prime minister, who is also the housing secretary, will commit to “building homes fit for the future” when she opens the party’s first annual gathering since winning the general election.

The package will include bringing forward a Remediation Acceleration Plan this autumn to speed up the removal of unsafe cladding on high-rise buildings.

Deadly cladding remains on more than half of all residential blocks of flats identified as at risk since the Grenfell fire in 2017.

The issue has come back into the spotlight following the conclusion of the inquiry into the tragedy, which found that “systematic dishonesty” contributed to the blaze that killed 72 people.

The announcement of the acceleration plan was thin on detail, but the government said it would go “further and faster to fix unsafe cladding and make existing homes safe”.

Other measures Ms Rayner will announce on Sunday include consulting on a new “decent homes standard” for the social and private rented sectors, and a new law to make landlords respond to complaints about disrepair within legally binding timescales.

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These have already been announced as part of Labour’s Renters’ Rights Bill, which builds on long-awaited legislation that was promised by the Tories but ultimately shelved ahead of the general election.

The law regarding repairs will be named after two-year-old Awaab Ishak, who died as a direct result of exposure to mould in the social home his family rented in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.

Awaab Ishak
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Awaab Ishak

The Conservatives first proposed Awaab’s Law to cover the social rented sector, but Labour will extend it to cover the private sector in a move they say will help tenants in 746,000 homes with reported serious hazards secure faster repairs.

Commenting ahead of her speech, Ms Rayner, who has also pledged to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years, said: “Just because Britain isn’t working at the moment, it doesn’t mean it can’t be fixed.

“We will deliver for working people and, in doing so, show that politics can change lives.

“This Labour government is taking a wave of bold action to not only build the housing our country needs and boost social and affordable housing, but to ensure all homes are decent, safe, and warm.”

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‘All MPs take gifts and donations’

The speech comes as a donations row threatens to overshadow the optimistic mood of the party’s first conference while in government for 15 years.

The prime minister has come under scrutiny over the past week for the more than £100,000 worth of gifts he has accepted, including tickets to football matches, concerts and luxury clothes.

Following days of press coverage on the issue, it emerged on Friday that Sir Keir and his most senior ministers – Ms Rayner and Chancellor Rachel Reeves – will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes.

On Saturday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy told Sky News that there had not been an undue influence in gifts accepted by her colleagues but “we don’t want the news and the commentary to be dominated by conversations about clothes”.

She defended the prime minister’s actions as being within the rules, saying that the taxpayer doesn’t fund these things “so MPs will always take donations, will always take gifts in kind”.

She added: “We expect our politicians to be well turned out, we expect them to be people who go out and represent us at different events and represent the country at different events and are clothed appropriately.

“But the point is that when we accept donations for that or for anything else, that we declare them and we’re open and transparent about them.”

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