
College football post-spring Top 25 Power Rankings
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior WriterMay 20, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
There are fewer than 100 days until the start of the 2024 college football season — and just over 200 days until selection day for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.
With spring practice in the rearview mirror and the spring transfer portal window closed, it’s a great time to update the 2024 Top 25. Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon remain in the top four, but there is plenty of movement behind them.
There are three new additions, including a couple of ACC teams trying to rekindle the magic from seasons past.
Spring update: With a schedule that includes a nonconference opener against Clemson in Atlanta and SEC road games at Kentucky, Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, a fourth straight unbeaten regular season might be asking a bit much of the Bulldogs. But there’s a reason coach Kirby Smart’s program won back-to-back CFP national titles in 2021 and 2022 and 46 of its past 48 games. Quarterback Carson Beck is primed for a big season, and he’ll be surrounded by plenty of playmakers and what should be one of the sport’s best offensive lines. Replacements will have to be identified on the interior defensive line and in the secondary, but that hasn’t been a problem in the recent past. Mykel Williams, who is going to play more outside linebacker this season, looks ready to break out as a pass-rusher. Georgia is stacked at linebacker and brings back safety Malaki Starks, one of the best players in the FBS.
Spring update: Coach Ryan Day’s teams have won 86.8% of their games since he took over the Ohio State program at the start of the 2019 season. The Buckeyes have defeated every Big Ten opponent in the regular season the past three years except one — Michigan. Unfortunately for Day, Ohio State has lost to the Wolverines three straight times, sullying what has otherwise been a remarkable stretch. After Michigan won a CFP national title under former coach Jim Harbaugh last season, the Buckeyes increased their efforts in the transfer portal, landing five-star safety Caleb Downs (Alabama), tailback Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) and quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State). Day also turned over the offensive playcalling to his mentor, former UCLA coach Chip Kelly. The Buckeyes get a soft nonconference schedule (home games against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall) and play the Wolverines at the Horseshoe on Nov. 30.
Spring update: After guiding the Longhorns to a 12-win campaign and a spot in the CFP in 2023, coach Steve Sarkisian’s challenge is sustaining that success in the SEC. The Longhorns got a break when the SEC schedule-makers rolled out the red carpet with a slate that includes true road games at Vanderbilt, Arkansas and rival Texas A&M. Texas will face an early road test at Michigan, its annual trip to Dallas to play Oklahoma and a home game against Georgia. Offensively, the Longhorns should be as good as anyone in the FBS with quarterback Quinn Ewers and a veteran offensive line returning. Transfers Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Matthew Golden (Houston) and Silas Bolden (Oregon State) and top recruit Ryan Wingo will have to step up after star receivers Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell departed for the NFL. The Longhorns will have to identify difference-makers on the defensive line and improve a secondary that ranked 113th in the FBS against the pass, allowing 254.4 yards per game.
Spring update: In just two seasons as a head coach, Oregon’s Dan Lanning has established himself as one of the best in the FBS. His teams have a 22-5 record and back-to-back bowl victories. With the Ducks moving to the Big Ten, Lanning’s blueprint for building a physical team on both sides of the ball should help ease the transition. Former Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel takes over for departed star Bo Nix. Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart might form a potent one-two punch with Tez Johnson at receiver. Jordan James is back after running for 759 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2023. Safety Kobe Savage (Kansas State) and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) were nice additions to a pass defense that led the Pac-12 last season, allowing 215.9 yards per game. Oregon plays a home contest against Ohio State on Oct. 12, but its November schedule will determine if it’s going to be a season to remember — Michigan (road), Maryland (home), Wisconsin (road) and Washington (home).
Spring update: The Fighting Irish have high hopes heading into coach Marcus Freeman’s third season, and understandably so after they landed quarterback transfer Riley Leonard (Duke) and brought back former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, the architect of LSU’s high-flying offense the past two seasons. Leonard missed most of the spring camp after undergoing a follow-up surgery on his right ankle injury. He’s expected to be ready for the start of fall practices. He’ll benefit from having transfer receivers Beaux Collins (Clemson) and Kris Mitchell (Florida International).
The Irish have to replace bookend offensive tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher; Charles Jagusah and Tosh Baker were working on the left and right sides, respectively, during the spring. Perhaps the biggest reason for the optimism around the Irish is the defense. Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills lead a salty defensive line, and cornerback Benjamin Morrison and safety Xavier Watts are stars in the secondary. The Irish will play only three true road games at Texas A&M, Purdue and USC this season. They’ll play Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Navy at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey and Army at Yankee Stadium in New York.
Spring update: With a favorable SEC schedule this season, Rebels coach Lane Kiffin hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in defensive end Princely Umanmielen (Florida), defensive tackle Walter Nolen (Texas A&M), receiver Antwane Wells Jr. (South Carolina) and others to make a potential move up with Alabama and LSU rebuilding. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is coming back to lead what should be another potent scoring offense. Running back depth is a concern after Judkins transferred to Ohio State. LSU transfer Logan Diggs had offseason knee surgery and might not be ready for the start of the season. Henry Parrish Jr., who started his career at Ole Miss and played the past two seasons at Miami, came back to help. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who ran for 1,190 yards with 17 touchdowns at New Mexico, is another option.
Spring update: It has been 131 days since legendary Alabama coach Nick Saban unexpectedly retired, and they’re still playing college football in Tuscaloosa. Just a friendly reminder that Saban’s replacement, Kalen DeBoer, had a 104-12 record in his previous three stops and directed Washington to a spot in the CFP National Championship last season. Yes, a boatload of players left for the NFL draft or via the transfer portal, but Alabama has enough talent remaining to compete at a high level. The offense looked explosive in the spring with returning quarterback Jalen Milroe and young tailbacks Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes. The Tide’s offensive line can only get better after allowing 49 sacks in 2023. Getting offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor back from the transfer portal was a coup for DeBoer. Defensive lineman LT Overton (Texas A&M), safety Keon Sabb (Michigan) and two Washington transfers — guard Parker Brailsford and receiver Germie Bernard — should help right away.
Spring update: The Tigers are going to need things to fall right to match last season’s 11-2 campaign, which included a 14-3 victory over Ohio State in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Brady Cook is going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, and Luther Burden III is one of the most explosive receivers in the FBS. Transfers Marcus Carroll (Georgia State) and Nate Noel (Appalachian State) were battling for the No. 1 tailback spot in the spring. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz hasn’t ruled out using a tailback by committee to replace Cody Schrader‘s production. The Tigers are sticking with a 4-2-5 scheme on defense after coordinator Blake Baker left for LSU. Linebackers Corey Flagg (Miami) and Darris Smith (Georgia) looked like they’d be able to contribute right away. Clemson transfer Toriano Pride was battling Marcus Clarke in the spring for one of the cornerback jobs vacated by NFL-bound players Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Spring update: Quarterback Cam Rising is back to lead Utah’s offense, and the Utes’ hopes of challenging for a conference title are high once again — this time in their first season in the Big 12. Rising missed all of last season with a knee injury; he led the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 championships and Rose Bowl appearances in 2021-22 before he was hurt. Rising completed 15 of 19 passes for 208 yards with two scores in the spring game. Transfer receiver Dorian Singer (USC) emerged as his favorite target, and Damien Alford (Syracuse) and Taeshaun Lyons (Washington) will upgrade a receiver room that already included Money Parks. Star tight end Brant Kuithe is also back from a knee injury. Three starters will have to be replaced on the offensive line, and the tailback order is still being settled. Eight starters are coming back from a defense that allowed 19.3 points per game last season. Cornerback Cameron Calhoun (Michigan) was a star in the spring. The defense suffered a blow when senior linebacker Levani Damuni, the team’s leading tackler in 2023, suffered a lower-leg injury that will sideline him long-term, according to coach Kyle Whittingham.
Spring update: The Wolverines aren’t going to fall off a cliff after coach Jim Harbaugh left to coach the Los Angeles Chargers following a season in which he guided his alma mater to its first national title in 26 years. Michigan has to replace quarterback J.J. McCarthy, most of its offensive line and several other contributors, but there’s enough talent coming back to be a factor in the Big Ten again. New coach Sherrone Moore must settle on a starting quarterback — Alex Orji is a dual-threat option, while Jack Tuttle is the more experienced and Davis Warren might have the strongest arm. Look for Michigan to rely heavily on tailback Donovan Edwards and tight ends Colston Loveland and Marlin Klein. Left tackle Myles Hinton is the only returning starter up front; Northwestern transfer Josh Priebe was working at left guard in the spring. The defense returns five starters, including star tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham and All-America cornerback Will Johnson. Michigan picked up transfer cornerback Aamir Hall (Albany) to compete for the other cornerback spot. The Wolverines play Texas at home in Week 2, and face a Big Ten gauntlet that includes home games against USC and Oregon and road contests at Washington and Ohio State.
Spring update: Seminoles coach Mike Norvell has utilized the transfer portal as well as anyone in the FBS, and he once again turned over FSU’s roster after it finished unbeaten and was left out of the CFP in 2023. Former Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei seemed to pick up the offense well in the spring. Transfer Malik Benson (Alabama) emerged as one of his favorite targets, and Lawrance Toafili and Roydell Williams (Alabama) led the running game. Norvell believes defensive end Patrick Payton will emerge as one of the top pass-rushers in the FBS, and he’ll have help from transfers Marvin Jones Jr. (Georgia), Tomiwa Durojaiye (West Virginia) and Sione Lolohea (Oregon State). Miami transfer Darrell Jackson Jr. is back to anchor the interior defensive line; the NCAA denied his eligibility waiver last year, causing him to miss the regular season.
Spring update: Somebody has to challenge Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon in the Big Ten, and with Washington rebuilding, I’ll go with Penn State for now. The Nittany Lions have struggled to score against good teams (Michigan and Ohio State), so coach James Franklin hired Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to boost the passing game, which ranked 80th in the FBS with 215 yards per game. The Nittany Lions are still high on quarterback Drew Allar. While running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and tight end Tyler Warren are nice players around Allar, the receiver room is thin after KeAndre Lambert-Smith and three others left via the transfer portal. Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming, Harrison Wallace III and slot receiver Kaden Saunders should emerge as go-to targets. Transfers Jalen Kimber (Florida) and A.J. Harris (Georgia) were battling to replace departed cornerbacks Kalen King and Johnny Dixon during the spring.
Spring update: Dave Doeren has quietly guided the Wolfpack to 34 wins the past four seasons, including a 9-4 mark last year, despite having a mess in the quarterback room. That position shouldn’t be a problem with former Coastal Carolina star Grayson McCall taking over the offense. He threw for at least 2,400 yards with at least 24 touchdowns and fewer than three interceptions in each of three straight seasons from 2020 to 2022. McCall battled a head injury last season. He’ll be surrounded by plenty of talent at NC State, including transfer receivers Noah Rogers (Ohio State) and Wesley Grimes (Wake Forest) and returning star KC Concepcion, the ACC Rookie of the Year in 2023. Tight end Justin Joly (UConn) and tailback Jordan Waters (Duke) were big additions as well. NC State faces September tests against Tennessee in Charlotte and Clemson on the road, but it doesn’t play Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech or Miami — four of the best teams in the ACC — during the regular season.
Spring update: The Tigers are going to have a new look on offense, as Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels and star receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. have left for the NFL. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier picked up from where he left off in the bowl game, completing 7 of 7 passes for 187 yards with two touchdowns in the spring game. With quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan calling plays, Nussmeier looked more than comfortable. Transfer receivers Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State) and CJ Daniels (Liberty) showed they’re ready to produce this season. LSU coach Brian Kelly brought in former Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to turn around a unit that ranked 81st in scoring defense (28 points) and 118th in pass defense (255.9 yards) in 2023. The Tigers are still searching for help on the defensive line after Mekhi Wingo and Maason Smith left for the NFL. Defensive end Gabriel Reliford, an early enrollee, was a bright spot in the spring. The Tigers picked up transfer defensive tackle Jay’viar Suggs (Grand Valley State) last week for depth. The secondary continued to have breakdowns in the spring game.
Spring update: The Volunteers’ high-flying passing attack slowed down a bit in 2023, going from No. 1 in the FBS in scoring (46.1 points) in 2022 to 35th (31.8) last season. With highly regarded passer Nico Iamaleava taking over, things should be headed back in the right direction. Transfer receiver Chris Brazzell (Tulane) and freshman Mike Matthews might take some of the attention off Squirrel White and Bru McCoy, who is coming back from a fractured right ankle that caused him to miss most of 2023. LSU transfer Lance Heard was working as the No. 1 left tackle in the spring and should solidify a unit with three returning starters. The Vols’ defensive line, led by James Pearce, should be its strength, and it will have to be good with a rebuilt secondary. Tennessee plays an early nonconference test against NC State and road games at Oklahoma and Georgia with Alabama at home. If Iamaleava is as good as advertised, the Vols might be back in the playoff hunt.
Spring update: As my colleague David Hale pointed out, there were four FBS teams that didn’t take a transfer from the portal this offseason: Air Force, Army, Navy and Clemson. Transferring into one of the service academies requires the intervention of a member of the U.S. Congress. For whatever reason, transferring to Clemson seems to be even more difficult these days. After the Tigers dropped four games for the first time since 2011 and finished 52nd in the FBS in scoring offense (29.8 points per game), it seemed like a good time to bring in experienced help. It didn’t happen. There’s no question Clemson’s defense is going to be one of the best in the FBS with linemen Peter Woods and T.J. Parker leading the way. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is betting that quarterback Cade Klubnik is going to be much better in his second season under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Freshman receiver Bryant Wesco looked great in the spring, and four-star T.J. Moore joins the team later this month.
Spring update: With Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC, Utah and Kansas State look like the teams to beat in the revamped Big 12. Coach Chris Klieman’s past three teams won at least eight games, and with Avery Johnson taking the reins at quarterback, the Wildcats’ ceiling might be higher than that. Tailback DJ Giddens is back after running for 1,226 yards in 2023; he’ll get some relief from transfer Dylan Edwards, who was Colorado’s leading rusher last season. Replacing three starters on the offensive line, including All-America center Cooper Beebe, was a priority in the spring. North Dakota transfer Easton Kilty was working at left tackle. The Wildcats added middle linebacker Alec Marenco, New Mexico’s leading tackler, and junior college nose tackle Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder recently to shore up the middle of the defense. The Wildcats don’t play the Utes during the regular season and get Oklahoma State and Kansas at home. Road trips to BYU, West Virginia and Iowa State might be tricky.
Spring update: The Sooners improved by four victories in coach Brent Venables’ second season, and programs typically make an even bigger jump in Year 3. The only problem: It’s also Year 1 in the SEC, and the schedule is downright scary. The offense will have a new look after Gabriel left for Oregon, and former North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the playcalling. Quarterback Jackson Arnold had a good spring and looks like a future star. Purdue transfer Deion Burks had five catches for 174 yards with two scores in the spring game. Transfers Michael Tarquin (USC) and Febechi Nwaiwu (North Texas) were working with the No. 1 offensive line, which must replace all five starters. OU added SMU center Branson Hickman in the spring portal opening. The Sooners could be good again, but they’re going to face one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS with road games at Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU and home contests against Tennessee, Texas (in Dallas) and Alabama.
Spring update: The Pokes are bringing 20 starters back, most of any team in the Big 12. The Cowboys should be able to score this season with quarterback Alan Bowman returning for his seventh season of college football — yes, you read that right — and FBS rushing leader Ollie Gordon II coming back as well. They signed Indiana’s leading rusher, Trent Howland, to help lessen the load on Gordon. The entire offensive line returns intact, and there’s a solid group of receivers with Brennan Presley, Rashod Owens and De’Zhaun Stribling. If OSU is going to compete for a Big 12 title, it’s going to have to do a better job of slowing opponents down. Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo implemented four-man fronts in the spring to try to improve the pass rush and take pressure off the secondary. The Cowboys have two great linebackers in Nick Martin and Collin Oliver, but their pass defense ranked 126th (275 yards) in the FBS in 2023.
Spring update: The Wildcats had to do some reloading after last season’s 10-win campaign, after which coach Jedd Fisch jumped to Washington to replace DeBoer. The Wildcats hired San Jose State’s Brent Brennan, one of the more underrated head coaches in the FBS. Quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan decided to stay at Arizona, giving the offense a solid nucleus. McMillan, who had 1,402 receiving yards with 10 touchdowns in 2023, was hurt during the spring and had a procedure on his left leg, according to Brennan, but is expected to be ready for the start of preseason camp.
Brennan and his staff have worked tirelessly to upgrade the roster; receiver Kevin Green Jr. and running back Jordan Washington transferred to Washington earlier this month. A dozen Arizona players have followed Fisch to Seattle. The Wildcats have brought in more than a dozen players from the portal, including receiver Reymello Murphy (Old Dominion) and tight end Sam Olson (San Jose State). Cornerback Tacario Davis decided to stay, giving the Wildcats another veteran in the secondary.
Spring update: It has been quite a while since the Hokies were a legitimate contender in the ACC race, but that might change in coach Brent Pry’s third season. ESPN colleague Bill Connelly ranks the Hokies No. 1 in his returning production percentages — No. 1 on offense (95%) and No. 12 on defense (77%) — and Pry and his staff have done a good job of using the transfer portal to plug holes. The Hokies averaged 43 points over their final four games of 2022, a stretch in which they went 3-1. Quarterback Kyron Drones passed for 22 touchdowns and three interceptions and ran for 818 yards with five scores. He’s one of 11 starters coming back on offense. Pry shored up the defensive line by bringing in four transfers: Duke’s Aeneas Peebles, Oklahoma’s Kelvin Gilliam Jr., Alabama’s Khurtiss Perry and Western Community College’s Kemari Copeland. Virginia Tech’s nonconference schedule is more than manageable (Vanderbilt, Marshall, Old Dominion and Rutgers) and it doesn’t play Florida State, Louisville or NC State during the regular season.
Spring update: For the first time since 2009, the Jayhawks went into spring practice coming off a bowl victory, after defeating UNLV 49-36 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. There’s even more reason for optimism with star quarterback Jalon Daniels returning from a back injury that caused him to miss most of the 2023 season. He was healthy in the spring and looked good throwing the ball. He’ll have plenty of help around him in tailback Devin Neal and the top three receivers from last season. New offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes was looking for three new starting offensive linemen — Logan Brown was working at left tackle and Michael Ford Jr. and Shane Bumgardner were battling at center. Bumgardner won the Division II Rimington Trophy at Tiffin University last season. One of the priorities on defense was finding a pass-rusher. Michigan State edge rusher Bai Jobe joined the Jayhawks on May 7.
Spring update: Who got a louder roar in Iowa City this past spring? Former college women’s basketball star Caitlin Clark when she led Iowa to the national championship game? Or football coach Kirk Ferentz when he announced the Hawkeyes were taking new offensive coordinator Tim Lester’s playbook and “going with it”? Under Brian Ferentz, the former offensive coordinator and coach’s son, the Hawkeyes ranked 132nd in the FBS in scoring (15.4 points) and 130th in passing (118.6 yards) last season. Somehow, they finished 10-4 and played Michigan for a Big Ten title. Imagine what they’ll do if they average 21 points? Quarterback Cade McNamara was limited in the spring after tearing the ACL in his left knee in early October. The receiver room is thin, and Ferentz said the offensive line needs to do a better job blocking. But at least they know coordinator Phil Parker’s defense is going to be salty with eight starters back.
Spring update: There’s no question that Mario Cristobal has been stockpiling talent — both through traditional high school recruiting and via the transfer portal. After going 12-13 in his first two seasons, Cristobal needs to turn that talent into some victories. The Hurricanes have one 10-win campaign in the past two decades, and they’ve faced lofty expectations and fallen flat more times than most. But with transfer quarterback Cam Ward (Washington State) and tailback Damien Martinez (Oregon State) joining the Canes, there’s reason for optimism. The offensive line should be good, and Miami added Houston’s Sam Brown to a solid receiver corps. Cristobal bolstered the defensive line by adding four transfers (and counting): C.J. Clark (NC State), Marley Cook (Middle Tennessee), Elijah Alston (Marshall) and Simeon Barrow (Michigan State). Defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. was the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year with 7½ sacks in 2023, and Akheem Mesidor is back after playing only three games last season because of injuries to both of his feet.
Spring update: The Trojans didn’t exactly cash in on 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams‘ two seasons, and now they’ll have to make their way in the Big Ten without him. Quarterback Miller Moss takes over under center, and there’s little concern about Lincoln Riley being able to turn him into a top passer. Moss will play behind a revamped offensive line; Mississippi State transfer Jo’Quavious Marks is expected to be the top tailback. Riley hired UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to rebuild a unit that ranked 121st in the FBS in scoring defense (34.4 points) and 119th in total defense (432.8 yards) last season. There are going to be plenty of new faces on that side of the ball, including safeties Akili Arnold (Oregon State) and Kamari Ramsey (UCLA), cornerbacks John Humphrey (UCLA) and DeCarlos Nicholson (Mississippi State), defensive lineman Nate Clifton (Vanderbilt), linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) and others. The Trojans play nonconference games against LSU and Notre Dame and Big Ten road contests against Michigan and Washington, so it won’t be easy to improve their record.
New teams in: Virginia Tech, Iowa, USC
Dropped out: Louisville, Kentucky, Texas A&M
Just missed: Wisconsin, West Virginia, Texas A&M, Louisville, Kentucky, Washington, Boise State, Air Force, Liberty
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Sports
Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time
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18 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
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Associated Press
Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET
For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.
The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.
Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.
The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.
Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.
The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.
The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.
Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.
The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.
“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”
Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.
Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.
The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).
The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.
Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.
“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”
The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.
Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.
• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.
• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.
• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.
• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.
Sports
AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team
Published
18 hours agoon
August 11, 2025By
admin
The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.
The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.
With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.
2024 record: 13-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox
Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.
2024 record: 10-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.
2024 record: 14-2
Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).
2024 record: 13-1
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN
Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock
Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.
2024 record: 9-4
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.
2024 record: 6-7
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.
2024 record: 11-2
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1
Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network
Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).
2024 record: 11-3
Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN
Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.
2024 record: 8-5
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+
Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.
2024 record: 10-3
Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC
Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.
2024 record: 12-2
Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET
Close- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.
I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)
Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.
The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)
Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.
The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas
Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.
The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.
The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)
I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.
The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)
The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.
The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas
Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.
The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)
I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.
The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)
This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.
The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)
The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.
The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.
The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)
I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.
The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)
Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.
The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)
This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.
The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)
The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.
The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)
The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.
The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)
With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.
The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)
Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.
The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)
Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.
The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)
I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.
The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)
There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.
The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)
The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.
The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5
The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.
The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)
Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.
The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)
The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.
The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)
Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.
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