How renewables could beat natural gas in US generating capacity within 3 years – in numbers
US renewables’ electrical generating capacity could be close to – and may even surpass – natural gas within three years, according to FERC data.
In March alone, solar accounted for 99.7% of capacity added, marking the seventh consecutive month that it provided more new generating capacity than any other energy source, according to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through March 31, 2024), which was reviewed by the SUN Day Campaign.
FERC says 52 “units” of solar provided 2,833 megawatts (MW) of new domestic generating capacity in March, or 99.72% of the total. Three megawatts each of new biomass and oil capacity plus 1 MW each of new hydropower and natural gas capacity made up the balance.
For Q1 2024, solar accounted for 86.79% (6,497 MW) of new generating capacity brought online while wind contributed another 12.40% (928 MW). Natural gas trailed with only 49 MW (0.65%) along with 5 MW of oil, 3 MW of biomass, 3 MW of “other,” and 1 MW of hydropower.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity from September 2023 to March 2024. Further, new solar capacity added in Q1 2024 was more than double the solar added in Q1 2023 (2,774 MW).
“FERC’s data for the first quarter seem to confirm forecasts by multiple sources that solar will dominate new capacity additions in 2024,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “And it is not unreasonable to suggest that solar’s growth this year will exceed expectations.”
Renewables are nearly 30% of utility-scale generating capacity
The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1 MW) generating capacity up to 8.25%, surpassing that of hydropower (7.88%). Wind is currently at 11.77%. Solar and wind combined now account for more than a fifth (20.02%) of the US’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. With the inclusion of biomass (1.14%) and geothermal (0.33%), renewables now claim a 29.37% share of total US utility-scale generating capacity.
For perspective, a year ago, solar’s share was 6.67% while wind and hydropower were 11.51% and 7.97%, respectively. The mix of all renewables totaled 27.67%.
Installed utility-scale solar has now climbed into fourth place – behind natural gas (43.79%), coal (15.87%), and wind – for its share of generating capacity after having recently surpassed that of nuclear power (8.01%).
Solar to beat wind and coal within 3 years
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between April 2024 and March 2027 total 89,030 MW – that’s more than 3.5 times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (24,483 MW), the second-fastest growing resource.
FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (568 MW), geothermal (400 MW), and biomass (91 MW). The new 1,100 MW Vogtle-4 reactor in Georgia that entered commercial operation in late April will increase nuclear capacity modestly, while coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to shrink by 20,077 MW, 2,386 MW, and 2,015 MW, respectively.
If just FERC’s current “high probability” additions come to fruition, by April 1, 2027, solar will account for almost one-seventh (14.16%) of installed US utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.36%) or wind (12.77%) and nearly double that of either nuclear power (7.56%) or hydropower (7.40%).
The mix of all renewables would account for 35.73% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.72%) – with solar and wind constituting more than 75% of installed utility-scale renewable energy capacity. Solar capacity alone would equal the combined capacities of wind, biomass, and geothermal.
FERC’s numbers run conservative
Three years ago, in its March 2021 “Infrastructure” report, FERC projected that between April 2021 and March 2024, net “high probability” solar additions would total 41,238 MW while those for wind would reach 21,888 MW. In reality, solar additions during that three-year period totaled 49,480 MW – nearly one-fifth (19.99%) higher, while actual wind capacity additions reached 26,910 MW or nearly 23% higher than FERC’s forecast.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 214,882 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 73,732 MW of new wind and 7,719 MW of new hydropower.
FERC only reports data for utility-scale facilities – it doesn’t include rooftop solar data, for example. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), small-scale solar is estimated to account for nearly a third of US electrical generation by solar and a larger share of total installed solar capacity.
This suggests that the total capacity of distributed (rooftop solar) and utility-scale solar combined is significantly more than the 8.25% FERC reported as solar’s share of total capacity at the end of March. It’s perhaps closer to 12% and may be on track to approach or exceed 20% within three years.
That could bring the generating capacity of all renewables close to – and possibly surpassing – natural gas within three years.
Read more: In a milestone, the US exceeds 5 million solar installations
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Powered by tech giant Huawei 5G-Advanced network, a fleet of over 100 Huaneng Ruichi all-electric autonomous haul trucks and heavy equipment assets have been deployed at the Yimin open-pit mine in Inner Mongolia.
With more than 100 units on site, China’s state-backed Huaneng Group officially deployed the world’s largest fleet of unmanned electric mining trucks at the Yimin coal plant in Inner Mongolia this past week. The autonomous trucks use the same Huawei Commercial Vehicle Autonomous Driving Cloud Service (CVADCS) powered by the ame 5G-Advanced (5G-A) network that powers its self-driving car efforts. Huawei says it’s the key to enabling the Yimin mine’s large-scale vehicle-cloud-network synergy.
Huawei is calling the achievement a “world’s first,” saying the new system has improved operator safety at Yimin while setting new benchmarks for AI and autonomous mining.
The autonomous mine project aligns with a broader push by Chinese government and industry to integrate AI and advanced connectivity into traditional industries – an approach we’ve already seen meet with great success in port environments by Hesai and Westwell.
And, if technology like Rocsys’ charging robots take off, these autonomous haul trucks won’t even need anyone to plug them in at the end of their shifts!
For their part, Huaneng Ruichi claims its cabin-less electric offer an industry-leading 90 metric ton rating (that’s about 100 imperial tons) and the ability operate continually in extreme cold temperatures as low as -40° (it’s the same, C or F), while delivering 20% more operational efficiency than a human-driven truck.
The Huawei-issued press release is a bit light on truck specs, but similar 90 tonne electric units claim 350 or 422 kWh LFP battery packs and up to 565 hp from their electric drive motors and some 2,300 Nm (1,700 lb-ft) of tq from 0 rpm.
Huawei executives said the Ruichi trucks reflect the company’s vision for smarter mining operations, with the potential to introduce similar technologies in markets like Africa and Latin America. The 100 asset electric fleet marks the first phase of a plan to deploy 300 autonomous trucks at the Yimin mine by 2028.
Electrek’s Take
From drilling and rigging to heavy haul solutions, companies like Huaneng Group are proving that electric equipment is more than up to the task of moving dirt and pulling stuff out of the ground. At the same time, rising demand for nickel, lithium, and phosphates combined with the natural benefits of electrification are driving the adoption of electric mining machines while a persistent operator shortage is boosting demand for autonomous tech in those machines.
The combined factors listed above are rapidly accelerating the rate at which machines that are already in service are becoming obsolete – and, while some companies are exploring the cost/benefit of converting existing vehicles to electric, the general consensus seems to be that more companies will be be buying more new equipment more often in the years ahead – and more of that equipment will be more and more likely to be autonomous as time goes on.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Huawei, South China Morning Post, and Supply Chain Digital.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Tesla has started accepting Cybertruck trade-ins, something that wasn’t the case more than a year after deliveries of the electric pickup truck started.
We are starting to see why Tesla didn’t accept its own vehicle as a trade-in: the depreciation is insane.
The Cybertruck has been a commercial flop.
When Tesla started production and deliveries in late 2023, the vehicle was significantly more expensive and had less performance than initially announced.
At one point, Tesla boasted having over 1 million reservations for the electric pickup truck, but only about 40,000 people ended up converting their reservations into orders.
Now, Cybertruck inventory is sitting unsold for months and Tesla is having to offer heavy discounts to move them.
We previously reported that Tesla refused to accept the Cybertruck, its own vehicle, as a trade-in more than a year after starting deliveries.
Tesla didn’t share an explanation at the time, but we assumed that the automaker knew the Cybertruck was depreciating at an incredible rate and didn’t want to be stuck with more trucks than it was already dealing with.
Now, Tesla has started taking Cybertruck trade-ins, at least for the Foundation Series, and it is now providing estimates to Cybertruck owners (via Cybertruck Owners Club):
Tesla sold a brand-new 2024 Cybertruck AWD Foundation Series for $100,000. Now, with only 6,000 miles on the odometer, Tesla is offering $65,400 for it – 34.6% depreciation in just a year.
Pickup trucks generally lose about 20% of their value after a year and 34% after about 3-4 years.
It’s also wroth nothing that Tesla’s online “trade-in estimates” are often higher than the final offer as noted in the footnote o fhte screenshot above.
Electrek’s Take
This is already extremely high depreciation, but Tesla is actually trying to save face with estimates like this one.
As Tesla wouldn’t even accept Cybertruck trade-ins, used car dealers also slowed down their purchases as they also didn’t want to be caught with the trucks sitting on their lots for too long.
On Car Guru, the Cybertruck’s depreciation is actually closer to 45% after a year and that’s more representative of the offers owners should expect from dealers.
That’s entirely Tesla’s fault. The company created no scarcity with the Foundation Series. They built as many as people wanted. In fact, they built too many and ended having to “buff out” the Foundation Series badges on some units to sell them as regular Cybertrucks and as of last month, Tesla still had some Cybertruck Foundations Series in inventory – meaning they have been sitting around for up to 6 months.
Now, Tesla is stuck with thousands of Cybertrucks, early owners are already getting rid of their vehicles at an impressive rate, and the automaker had to slow production to a crawl.
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Australian logistics company Linfox is making big moves to electrify its heavy-duty semi fleet with the addition of thirty new Volvo FH and FM Electric semi trucks as the Swedish brand works to begin production at its Brisbane facility.
Volvo Trucks is expecting to begin full scale production of its FH and FM Electric semi trucks at the Brisbane factory in early 2026, just in time to fill the Linfox order – which happens to be the company’s largest in Australia. So far.
“We are very proud to continue our close partnership with Linfox. The order for 30 Volvo electric trucks is proof of their trust in our company and in zero-emissions transport as a viable solution here and now,” said Roger Alm, President Volvo Trucks. “Our commitment to start building electric trucks in Australia demonstrates our confidence in this technology, and means we can offer an industry-leading range of purpose-built electric trucks all around the world.”
With the production kickoff of electric trucks in Australia, it means Volvo Trucks is building its big HDEVs and prime movers in five countries on three continents. Which, as the company’s electric fleet approaches the 100 millionth mile logged mark, probably means they’re pulling well ahead of some of the other guys.
“Linfox is excited to partner with Volvo in driving the future and leading sustainable logistics in Australia,” explains Peter Fox AM (Member of the Order of Australia), Executive Chairman of Linfox. “Further electrifying our fleet sets the standard for us and our customers and the entire industry.”
Linfox’ latest order includes 29 Volvo FH Electric and one FM Electric semi. The company currently has four electric Volvo trucks in its fleet of 195 semis, with plans to continue to electrify as ICE-powered assets reach retirement.
Electrek’s Take
Now counting miles in operation in the tens of millions and rolling out its third generation of electric semi trucks, Volvo (and, by extension, Mack and Renault) continue to build a huge lead in the commercial trucking space. The competition, meanwhile, seems content to post pictures of its first factory while trucks that have been on order for years still haven’t reached customers.
I can’t see how they (Tesla) catch up from here.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.
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