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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the UK economy is heading for a “soft landing” but reiterated its message to Jeremy Hunt that he should not have cut national insurance at the last two fiscal events.

In its annual check-up on the state of Britain’s economy, the Washington-based Fund also warned of a black hole in the public finances, with £30bn of spending cuts or tax rises needed to stabilise the national debt.

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The fund raised its forecast for gross domestic product growth this year from 0.5% to 0.7%, saying: “The UK economy is approaching a soft landing, with a recovery in growth expected in 2024, strengthening in 2025.”

It now expects inflation to come down to close to 2% in the coming months, and the Bank of England to cut interest rates by as much as three-quarters of a percent this year, and then another percentage point next year.

The chancellor welcomed the fund’s article IV report, saying: “Today’s report clearly shows that independent international economists agree that the UK economy has turned a corner and is on course for a soft landing.

“The IMF have upgraded our growth for this year and forecast we will grow faster than any other large European country over the next six years – so it is time to shake off some of the unjustified pessimism about our prospects.”

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However, the IMF – which has warned the government explicitly in the past not to cut taxes too fast in the face of rising spending projections in future – said that the two 2p national insurance contribution (NIC) cuts at the last two fiscal events were a mistake.

“In light of the medium-term fiscal challenge,” the report said. “Staff would have recommended against the NIC rate cuts, given their significant cost.”

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The fund’s staff also believe that the government is not on track to meet its main fiscal rule, which commits it to cutting the national debt in five years time.

It believes net debt will carry on rising towards 97% of GDP in the following years, instead of falling back to 93% of GDP, as the Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast.

The fund’s double-edged report comes amid improving news for the UK.

Data released two weeks ago showed the country ended its short-lived recession with faster-than-expected growth in the first quarter of the year.

The Office for National Statistics is also expected to announce tomorrow that inflation dropped down close to the Bank of England’s 2% target in April.

That may enable the Bank to begin cutting interest rates from their 5.25% level in June or August.

The fund’s report contained a number of other recommendations for economic policy in the UK, including that the Bank of England should commit to more press conferences to explain its decisions, and that the government should consider imposing road charges to replace the revenue lost from fuel duty as electric cars become more predominant on UK roads.

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Eco-tycoon Vince weighs sale of solar energy project

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Eco-tycoon Vince weighs sale of solar energy project

The energy group founded by Dale Vince, the eco-tycoon, is kicking off a hunt for investors in a solar park which is expected to become one of Britain’s biggest renewable energy projects.

Sky News understands that Ecotricity, Mr Vince’s company, has hired KPMG to explore talks with prospective investors or buyers for the project at Heckington Fen in Lincolnshire.

The development was approved by Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, earlier this year, and when completed it is expected to generate roughly 600MW of solar power.

It has been designated a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project by the government.

Heckington Fen will also provide 400MW of battery storage capacity.

According to documents circulated to potential bidders, Ecotricity is prioritising the sale of 100% of the project, but is open to retaining a minority stake.

The company wants to complete a deal during the third quarter of the year.

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Responding to an enquiry from Sky News, Mr Vince said: “Heckington Fen is a fabulous opportunity; it’s also a massive one, possibly the biggest onshore renewable initiative in Britain.

“The project is shovel-ready with a grid connection in 2028 – something which is increasingly hard to find these days.

“Whilst this is a great project which is going to go ahead, the sums of money required to build this alone in a short timeframe, means we’re looking for investors or partners to help make this happen.”

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff ‘storm’

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff 'storm'

Sir Keir Starmer has said his government stands ready to use industrial policy to “shelter British business from the storm” after Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff kicked in.

The UK was among a number of countries hit with the lowest import duty rate following the president’s announcement on 2 April – which he called ‘Liberation Day’, while other nations, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and China face much higher US levies.

But a global trade war will hurt the UK’s open economy.

The prime minister said “these new times demand a new mentality”, after the 10% tax on British imports into America came into force on Saturday. A 25% US levy on all foreign car imports was introduced on Thursday.

It comes as Jaguar Land Rover announced it would “pause” shipments to the US for a month, as firms grapple with the new taxes.

On Saturday, the car manufacturer said it was working to “address the new trading terms” and was looking to “develop our mid to longer-term plans”.

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Referring to the tariffs, Sir Keir said “the immediate priority is to keep calm and fight for the best deal”.

Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said that in the coming days “we will turbocharge plans that will improve our domestic competitiveness”, adding: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.”

It is believed a number of announcements could be made soon as ministers look to encourage growth.

NI contribution rate for employers goes up

From Sunday, the rate of employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increased from 13.8% to 15%.

At the same time, firms will also pay more because the government lowered the salary threshold at which companies start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.

Also, the FTSE 100 of leading UK companies had its worst day of trading since the start of the pandemic on Friday, with banks among some of the firms to suffer the sharpest losses.

Sir Keir said: “This week, the government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest. Because when global economic sands are shifting, our laser focus on delivering for Britain will not. And these new times demand a new mentality.”

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Trump defiant despite markets

UK spared highest tariff rates

Some of the highest rates have been applied to “worst offender” countries including some in Southeast Asia. Imports from Cambodia will be subject to a 49% tariff, while those from Vietnam will face a 46% rate. Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff.

Imports from France will have a 20% tariff, the rate which has been set for European Union nations. These will come into effect on 9 April.

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Sir Keir has been speaking to foreign leaders on the phone over the weekend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to discuss the tariff changes.

A Downing Street spokesperson said of the conversation between Sir Keir and Mr Macron: “They agreed that a trade war was in nobody’s interests but nothing should be off the table and that it was important to keep business updated on developments.

“The prime minister and president also shared their concerns about the global economic and security impact, particularly in Southeast Asia.”

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Trump’s warning

Mr Trump has warned Americans the tariffs “won’t be easy”, but urged them to “hang tough”.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before.

“Already, more than FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT, and rising fast!

“THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”

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Santander UK lines up ex-Treasury chief Scholar as new chair

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Santander UK lines up ex-Treasury chief Scholar as new chair

Sir Tom Scholar, the former top Treasury civil servant sacked by Liz Truss during her premiership, is being lined up as the next chairman of Santander UK, Britain’s fifth-biggest high street bank.

Sky News has learnt that Sir Tom, who played a pivotal role in the UK’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, is the leading candidate to replace William Vereker.

The appointment, which is subject to regulatory approval, could be announced later in the spring, according to insiders.

Sir Tom’s prospective recruitment comes amid a period of intense speculation about the future of Santander UK, which bulked up rapidly during the banking crisis by absorbing Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley.

The Spanish banking giant entered the British retail market in 2004 when it bought Abbey National, setting in motion a chain of dealmaking which would result in it becoming a serious challenger to Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group.

If confirmed in the role, Sir Tom will follow a pattern of former senior public officials in taking on the chairmanship of Santander UK.

The post has been held in the past by Baroness Vadera, a Treasury minister during the 2008 meltdown, and Lord Burns, the former Treasury permanent secretary.

Sir Tom also held that latter role until his ousting during the shortlived Truss government, which led to him receiving a payoff of more than £350,000.

In addition to his position during the banking crisis, he was instrumental in devising the COVID-19 furlough scheme, which protected millions of private sector jobs during the series of lockdowns imposed on the British public.

He was widely respected among international banking regulators and finance ministers, and his sacking by Ms Truss sparked fury among senior civil servants.

Since leaving the Treasury, he has been appointed as chair of the European operations of Nomura, the Japanese bank.

At Santander UK, he will work closely with Mike Regnier, the former building society boss who has been its chief executive since 2022.

In recent months, there has been growing speculation that Santander UK’s parent is open to a sale of the business amid frustration about the scope and burden of British banking regulation.

Both Barclays and NatWest have been sounded out about a potential merger of their UK retail businesses with that of Santander UK, although formal talks have not progressed to a meaningful stage.

Ana Botin, Santander’s group executive chair, has appeared to publicly rule out a disposal, saying that the UK remains a “core market” for the group.

An attractively priced offer could yet gain Ms Botin’s attention, according to people close to the earlier talks.

One insider said, however, that Sir Tom’s recruitment was likely to dampen further speculation about a possible sale of the British business.

Shares in the Madrid-listed parent company, Banco Santander, have performed strongly in recent months, but fell by more than 8% on Friday as investors digested the fallout from President Donald Trump’s global tariffs blitz.

The company now has a market capitalisation of about €83.25bn (£70.7bn).

City sources said the search for Mr Vereker’s successor had been led by Heidrick & Struggles, the headhunter, in conjunction with Baroness Morgan, the former cabinet minister who sits on Santander UK’s board as its senior independent director.

This weekend, Santander UK said in a statement issued to Sky News: “Santander UK is conducting a thorough appointment process.

“The new chair will be announced once that process has concluded, including having obtained board and regulatory approval.”

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