Nvidia is talk of the town at AI events leading into this week’s earnings
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang displays products on-stage during the annual Nvidia GTC Artificial Intelligence Conference at SAP Center in San Jose, California, on March 18, 2024.
Josh Edelson | Afp | Getty Images
At the start of last week, OpenAI’s technology chief personally thanked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for “bringing us the most advanced” chips needed to run the demo for a presentation the company delivered on its latest artificial intelligence models.
A day later, at Google’s annual developer conference, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted his company’s “longstanding partnership with Nvidia,” and noted that Google Cloud will be using the chipmaker’s Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) in early 2025.
And this week, Microsoft, which provides servers to OpenAI, will announce new AI advancements and features that were developed on the company’s massive clusters of Nvidia GPUs. The company is hosting its Build conference in Redmond, Washington.
Heading into its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, Nvidia finds itself at the center of the action in technology, a position that’s become increasingly commonplace for the 31-year-old company, whose market cap has ballooned past $2 trillion this year.
Nvidia is expected to report year-over-year revenue growth in excess of 200% for a third straight quarter, with analysts projecting a fiscal first-quarter bump-up of 243% to $24.6 billion, according to LSEG. More than $21 billion of that is expected to come from Nvidia’s data center business, which includes all the advanced processors the company is selling to Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, OpenAI and others.
Nvidia is squeezing so much profit out of its AI suite of products that net income is expected to be up more than fivefold from a year earlier to $13.9 billion.
The stock has soared 91% this year after more than tripling in 2023.
Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, compared Nvidia’s position in the AI boom to the “internet buildout” of the 1990s and Cisco’s role at the center in those days. Over a three-year stretch, Niles said, Cisco had several dramatic pullbacks, but ultimately increased 4,000% up to its peak in 2000. Nvidia will go through similar cycles, he said.
“We’re still really early in the AI build,” Niles told CNBC’s “Money Matters” on Monday. “I think the revenue will go up three to four times from current levels over the next three to four years, and I think the stock goes with it.”
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple are expected to shell out a combined $200 billion in capital expenditures this year, according to an estimate from Bernstein, with a huge portion of the spending going to AI-specific infrastructure like Nvidia chips.
Elsewhere, OpenAI is relying on Nvidia’s technology for its latest chatbot, GPT-4o. Meta announced plans in March to buy and build out computers that will include 350,000 Nvidia GPUs, costing billions of dollars, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg even swapped jackets with Huang and posed for a picture with the Nvidia CEO.
“If you look at today for the AI build out, who’s really driving that?” Niles said. “It’s the most profitable companies on the planet — it’s Microsoft, it’s Google, it’s Meta, and they’re driving this.”
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., arrives at an event in Taipei, Taiwan, on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024.
Lam Yik Fei | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Prior to the recent AI boom, Nvidia was known as the primary maker of chips used for 3D gaming. About a year ago, the chipmaker gave investors their first clue that the company would see a period of historic growth, signaling to Wall Street that it would generate about 50% more in sales than what analysts expected in the July 2023 quarter.
Growth rates have since accelerated. But starting in the second quarter, expansion is expected to slow, with analysts anticipating significant deceleration in each of the next three periods.
“We just don’t know how long this investment cycle lasts and just how much excess capacity will be created over that time in case this AI thing doesn’t materialize as quickly as expected,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a note earlier this month.
That’s not to say that Nvidia is at risk of losing a ton of the AI chip business to rivals. Piper Sandler analysts expect it to keep at least 75% of the AI accelerator market, even as companies like Google build their own custom chips.
“We view the percentage of hyperscaler spend that is dedicated towards compute further rising in 2024 and 2025,” Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar wrote in a note.
One question the company faces is how well the transition is going to its next generation of AI chips, called Blackwell, which are expected to ship later this year. Some worry there could be a lull as clients hold off on buying the older Hopper GPUs like the H100 in favor of Blackwell-based chips such as the GH200.
“To some degree, the setup has shifted,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore in a note on Monday. “Six months ago, short term expectations were very strong but there was anxiety about durability. Now, fresh on the back of hyperscalers talking up longer term spending expectations for AI, those longer term views are more positive, but there is anxiety about a pause in front of Blackwell.”
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
If TikTok does indeed go dark on Sunday for Americans, there may be a tool for them to continue accessing the popular social app: VPNs.
The Chinese-owned app is set to be removed from mobile app stores and the web for U.S. users on Sunday as a result of a law signed by President Joe Biden in April 2024 requiring that the app be sold to a qualified buyer before the deadline.
Barring a last-minute sale or reprieve from the Supreme Court, the app will almost certainly vanish from the app stores for iPhones and Android phones. It won’t be removed from people’s phones, but the app could stop working.
TikTok plans to shut its service for Americans on Sunday, meaning that even those who already have the app downloaded won’t be able to continue using it, according to reports this week from Reuters and The Information. Apple and Google didn’t comment on their plans for taking down the apps from their app stores on Sunday.
“Basically, an app or a website can check where users came from,” said Justas Palekas, a head of product at IProyal.com, a proxy service. “Based on that, then they can impose restrictions based on their location.”
Masking your physical internet access point
That may stop most users, but for the particularly driven Americans, using VPNs might allow them to continue using the app.
VPNs and a related business-to-business technology called proxies work by tunneling a user’s internet traffic through a server in another country, making it look like they are accessing the internet from a location different than the one they are physically in.
This works because every time a computer connects to the internet, it is identified through an IP number, which is a 12-digit number that is different for every single computer. The first six digits of the number identifies the network, which also includes information about the physical region the request came from.
In China, people have used VPNs for years to get around the country’s firewall, which blocks U.S. websites such as Google and Facebook. VPNs saw big spikes in traffic when India banned TikTok in 2020, and people often use VPNs to watch sporting events from countries where official broadcasts aren’t available.
As of 2022, the VPN market was worth nearly $38 billion, according to the VPN Trust Initiative, a lobbying group.
“We consistently see significant spikes in VPN demand when access to online platforms is restricted, and this situation is no different,” said Lauren Hendry Parsons, privacy advocate at ExpressVPN, a VPN provider that costs $5 per month to use.
“We’re not here to endorse TikTok, but the looming U.S. ban highlights why VPNs matter— millions rely on them for secure, private, and unrestricted access to the internet,” ProtonVPN posted on social media earlier this week. ProtonVPN offers its service for $10 a month.
The price of VPNs
Both ExpressVPN and ProtonVPN allow users to set their internet-access location.
Most VPN services charge a monthly fee to pay for their servers and traffic, but some use a business model where they collect user data or traffic trends, such as when Meta offered a free VPN so it could keep an eye on which competitors’ apps were growing quickly.
A key tradeoff for those who use VPN is speed due to requests having to flow through a middleman computer to mask a users’ physical location.
And although VPNs have worked in the past when governments have banned apps, that doesn’t ensure that VPNs will work if TikTok goes dark. It won’t be clear if ExpressVPN would be able to access TikTok until after the ban takes place, Parsons told CNBC in an email. It’s also possible that TikTok may be able to determine Americans who try to use VPNs to access the app.
(L-R) Sarah Baus of Charleston, S.C., holds a sign that reads “Keep TikTok” as she and other content creators Sallye Miley of Jackson, Mississippi, and Callie Goodwin of Columbia, S.C., stand outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building as the court hears oral arguments on whether to overturn or delay a law that could lead to a ban of TikTok in the U.S., on January 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
VPNs and proxies to evade regional restrictions have been part of the internet’s landscape for decades, but their use is increasing as governments seek to ban certain services or apps.
Apps are removed by government request all the time. Nearly 1500 apps were removed in regions due to government takedown demands in 2023, according to Apple, with over 1,000 of them in China. Most of them are fringe apps that break laws such as those against gambling, or Chinese video game rules, but increasingly, countries are banning apps for national security or economic development reasons.
Now, the U.S. is poised to ban one of the most popular apps in the country — with 115 million users, it was the second most downloaded app of 2024 across both iOS and Android, according to an estimate provided to CNBC from Sensor Tower, a market intelligence firm.
“As we witness increasing attempts to fragment and censor the internet, the role of VPNs in upholding internet freedom is becoming increasingly critical,” Parsons said.
Technology
YouTube donating $15 million in LA wildfire relief, support for creators days before TikTok ban
Charred remains of buildings are pictured following the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood in Los Angeles, California, U.S. Jan. 15, 2025.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Google and YouTube will donate $15 million to support the Los Angeles community and content creators impacted by wildfires, YouTube CEO Neal Mohan announced in a blog post Wednesday.
The contributions will flow to local relief organizations including Emergency Network Los Angeles, the American Red Cross, the Center for Disaster Philanthropy and the Institute for Nonprofit News, the blog said. When the company’s LA offices can safely reopen, impacted creators will also be able to use YouTube’s production facilities “to recover and rebuild their businesses” as well as access community events.
“To all of our employees, the YouTube creator community, and everyone in LA, please stay safe and know we’re here to support,” Google CEO Sundar Pichai posted on X.
The move comes days before Sunday’s impending TikTok ban that has already seen content creators begin asking fans to follow them on other social platforms. YouTube Shorts, a short-form video platform within YouTube, is a competitor to TikTok, along with Meta’s Instagram Reels and the fast-growing Chinese app Rednote, otherwise known as Xiahongshu.
“In moments like these, we see the power of communities coming together to support each other — and the strength and resilience of the YouTube community is like no other,” Mohan wrote.
YouTube’s contributions are in line with a host of other LA companies pledging multi-million dollar donations aimed at assisting employees and residents impacted by the LA fires. Meta announced a $4 million donation split between CEO Mark Zuckerberg and the company while both Netflix and Comcast pledged $10 million donations to multiple aid groups.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
WATCH: TikTok: What creators would do if the short-form video app goes dark
Technology
TikTok’s U.S. operations could be worth as much as $50 billion if ByteDance decides to sell
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Business moguls such as Elon Musk should be prepared to spend tens of billions of dollars for TikTok’s U.S. operations should parent company ByteDance decide to sell.
TikTok is staring at a potential ban in the U.S. if the Supreme Court decides to uphold a national security law in which service providers such as Apple and Google would be penalized for hosting the app after the Sunday deadline. ByteDance has not indicated that it will sell the app’s U.S. unit, but the Chinese government has considered a plan in which X owner Musk would acquire the operations, as part of several scenarios in consideration, Bloomberg News reported Monday.
If ByteDance decides to sell, potential buyers may have to spend between $40 billion and $50 billion. That’s the valuation that CFRA Research Senior Vice President Angelo Zino has estimated for TikTok’s U.S. operations. Zino based his valuation on estimates of TikTok’s U.S. user base and revenue in comparison to rival apps.
TikTok has about 115 million monthly mobile users in the U.S., which is slightly behind Instagram’s 131 million, according to an estimate by market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. That puts TikTok ahead of Snapchat, Pinterest and Reddit, which have U.S. monthly mobile user bases of 96 million, 74 million and 32 million, according to Sensor Tower.
Zino’s estimate, however, is down from the more than $60 billion that he estimated for the unit in March 2024, when the House passed the initial national security bill that President Joe Biden signed into law the following month.
The lowered estimate is due to TikTok’s current geopolitical predicament and because “industry multiples have come in a bit” since March, Zino told CNBC in an email. Zino’s estimate doesn’t include TikTok’s valuable recommendation algorithms, which a U.S. acquirer would not obtain as part of a deal, with the algorithms and their alleged ties to China being central to the U.S. government’s case that TikTok poses a national security threat.
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence have their estimate for TikTok’s U.S. operations pegged in the range of $30 billion to $35 billion. That’s the estimate they published in July, saying at the time that the value of the unit would be “discounted due to it being a forced sale.”
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts noted that finding a buyer for TikTok’s U.S. operations that can both afford the transaction and deal with the accompanying regulatory scrutiny on data privacy makes a sale challenging. It could also make it difficult for a buyer to expand TikTok’s ads business, they wrote.
A consortium of businesspeople including billionaire Frank McCourt and O’Leary Ventures Chairman Kevin O’Leary put in a bid to buy TikTok from ByteDance. O’Leary has previously said the group would be willing to pay up to $20 billion to acquire the U.S. assets without the algorithm.
Unlike a Musk bid, O’Leary’s group’s bid would be free from regulatory scrutiny, O’Leary said in a Monday interview with Fox News.
O’Leary said that he’s “a huge Elon Musk fan,” but added “the idea that the regulator, even under Trump’s administration, would allow this is pretty slim.”
TikTok, X and O’Leary Ventures did not respond to requests for comment.
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