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Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang displays products on-stage during the annual Nvidia GTC Artificial Intelligence Conference at SAP Center in San Jose, California, on March 18, 2024.

Josh Edelson | Afp | Getty Images

At the start of last week, OpenAI’s technology chief personally thanked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for “bringing us the most advanced” chips needed to run the demo for a presentation the company delivered on its latest artificial intelligence models.

A day later, at Google’s annual developer conference, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted his company’s “longstanding partnership with Nvidia,” and noted that Google Cloud will be using the chipmaker’s Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) in early 2025.

And this week, Microsoft, which provides servers to OpenAI, will announce new AI advancements and features that were developed on the company’s massive clusters of Nvidia GPUs. The company is hosting its Build conference in Redmond, Washington.

Heading into its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, Nvidia finds itself at the center of the action in technology, a position that’s become increasingly commonplace for the 31-year-old company, whose market cap has ballooned past $2 trillion this year.

Nvidia is expected to report year-over-year revenue growth in excess of 200% for a third straight quarter, with analysts projecting a fiscal first-quarter bump-up of 243% to $24.6 billion, according to LSEG. More than $21 billion of that is expected to come from Nvidia’s data center business, which includes all the advanced processors the company is selling to Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, OpenAI and others.

Nvidia is squeezing so much profit out of its AI suite of products that net income is expected to be up more than fivefold from a year earlier to $13.9 billion.

The stock has soared 91% this year after more than tripling in 2023.

Dan Niles on what to expect from Nvidia earnings

Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, compared Nvidia’s position in the AI boom to the “internet buildout” of the 1990s and Cisco’s role at the center in those days. Over a three-year stretch, Niles said, Cisco had several dramatic pullbacks, but ultimately increased 4,000% up to its peak in 2000. Nvidia will go through similar cycles, he said.

“We’re still really early in the AI build,” Niles told CNBC’s “Money Matters” on Monday. “I think the revenue will go up three to four times from current levels over the next three to four years, and I think the stock goes with it.”

Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple are expected to shell out a combined $200 billion in capital expenditures this year, according to an estimate from Bernstein, with a huge portion of the spending going to AI-specific infrastructure like Nvidia chips.

Elsewhere, OpenAI is relying on Nvidia’s technology for its latest chatbot, GPT-4o. Meta announced plans in March to buy and build out computers that will include 350,000 Nvidia GPUs, costing billions of dollars, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg even swapped jackets with Huang and posed for a picture with the Nvidia CEO.

“If you look at today for the AI build out, who’s really driving that?” Niles said. “It’s the most profitable companies on the planet — it’s Microsoft, it’s Google, it’s Meta, and they’re driving this.”

Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., arrives at an event in Taipei, Taiwan, on Thursday, Jan. 25, 2024.

Lam Yik Fei | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Prior to the recent AI boom, Nvidia was known as the primary maker of chips used for 3D gaming. About a year ago, the chipmaker gave investors their first clue that the company would see a period of historic growth, signaling to Wall Street that it would generate about 50% more in sales than what analysts expected in the July 2023 quarter.

Growth rates have since accelerated. But starting in the second quarter, expansion is expected to slow, with analysts anticipating significant deceleration in each of the next three periods.

“We just don’t know how long this investment cycle lasts and just how much excess capacity will be created over that time in case this AI thing doesn’t materialize as quickly as expected,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a note earlier this month.

That’s not to say that Nvidia is at risk of losing a ton of the AI chip business to rivals. Piper Sandler analysts expect it to keep at least 75% of the AI accelerator market, even as companies like Google build their own custom chips.

“We view the percentage of hyperscaler spend that is dedicated towards compute further rising in 2024 and 2025,” Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar wrote in a note.

One question the company faces is how well the transition is going to its next generation of AI chips, called Blackwell, which are expected to ship later this year. Some worry there could be a lull as clients hold off on buying the older Hopper GPUs like the H100 in favor of Blackwell-based chips such as the GH200.

“To some degree, the setup has shifted,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore in a note on Monday. “Six months ago, short term expectations were very strong but there was anxiety about durability. Now, fresh on the back of hyperscalers talking up longer term spending expectations for AI, those longer term views are more positive, but there is anxiety about a pause in front of Blackwell.”

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Palantir jumps 9% to a record after announcing move to Nasdaq

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Palantir jumps 9% to a record after announcing move to Nasdaq

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies speaks during the Digital X event on September 07, 2021 in Cologne, Germany. 

Andreas Rentz | Getty Images

Palantir shares continued their torrid run on Friday, soaring as much as 9% to a record, after the developer of software for the military announced plans to transfer its listing to the Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange.

The stock jumped past $64.50 in afternoon trading, lifting the company’s market cap to $147 billion. The shares are now up more than 50% since Palantir’s better-than-expected earnings report last week and have almost quadrupled in value this year.

Palantir said late Thursday that it expects to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 26, under its existing ticker symbol “PLTR.” While changing listing sites does nothing to alter a company’s fundamentals, board member Alexander Moore, a partner at venture firm 8VC, suggested in a post on X that the move could be a win for retail investors because “it will force” billions of dollars in purchases by exchange-traded funds.

“Everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following,” Moore wrote, referring to a term popularized in the crypto community for long-term believers.

Moore appears to have subsequently deleted his X account. His firm, 8VC, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Last Monday after market close, Palantir reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates and issued a fourth-quarter forecast that was also ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. CEO Alex Karp wrote in the earnings release that the company “absolutely eviscerated this quarter,” driven by demand for artificial intelligence technologies.

U.S. government revenue increased 40% from a year earlier to $320 million, while U.S. commercial revenue rose 54% to $179 million. On the earnings call, the company highlighted a five-year contract to expand its Maven technology across the U.S. military. Palantir established Maven in 2017 to provide AI tools to the Department of Defense.

The post-earnings rally coincides with the period following last week’s presidential election. Palantir is seen as a potential beneficiary given the company’s ties to the Trump camp. Co-founder and Chairman Peter Thiel was a major booster of Donald Trump’s first victorious campaign, though he had a public falling out with Trump in the ensuing years.

When asked in June about his position on the 2024 election, Thiel said, “If you hold a gun to my head I’ll vote for Trump.”

Thiel’s Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.

In September, S&P Global announced Palantir would join the S&P 500 stock index.

Analysts at Argus Research say the rally has pushed the stock too high given the current financials and growth projections. The analysts still have a long-term buy rating on the stock and said in a report last week that the company had a “stellar” quarter, but they downgraded their 12-month recommendation to a hold.

The stock “may be getting ahead of what the company fundamentals can support,” the analysts wrote.

WATCH: Palantir hits record as defense adopts AI tech

Palantir hits record high as defense adopts AI tech

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Super Micro faces deadline to keep Nasdaq listing after 85% plunge in stock

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Super Micro faces deadline to keep Nasdaq listing after 85% plunge in stock

Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. The trade show runs through June 7. 

Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Super Micro Computer could be headed down a path to getting kicked off the Nasdaq as soon as Monday.

That’s the potential fate for the server company if it fails to file a viable plan for becoming compliant with Nasdaq regulations. Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. Many investors were expecting clarity from Super Micro when the company reported preliminary quarterly results last week. But they didn’t get it.

The primary component of that plan is how and when Super Micro will file its 2024 year-end report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and why it was late. That report is something many expected would be filed alongside the company’s June fourth-quarter earnings but was not.  

The Nasdaq delisting process represents a crossroads for Super Micro, which has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom due to its longstanding relationship with Nvidia and surging demand for the chipmaker’s graphics processing units. 

The one-time AI darling is reeling after a stretch of bad news. After Super Micro failed to file its annual report over the summer, activist short seller Hindenburg Research targeted the company in August, alleging accounting fraud and export control issues. The company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, stepped down in October, and Super Micro said last week that it was still trying to find a new one.

The stock is getting hammered. After the shares soared more than 14-fold from the end of 2022 to their peak in March of this year, they’ve since plummeted by 85%. Super Micro’s stock is now equal to where it was trading in May 2022, after falling another 11% on Thursday.

Getting delisted from the Nasdaq could be next if Super Micro doesn’t file a compliance plan by the Monday deadline or if the exchange rejects the company’s submission. Super Micro could also get an extension from the Nasdaq, giving it months to come into compliance. The company said Thursday that it would provide a plan to the Nasdaq in time. 

A spokesperson told CNBC the company “intends to take all necessary steps to achieve compliance with the Nasdaq continued listing requirements as soon as possible.”

While the delisting issue mainly affects the stock, it could also hurt Super Micro’s reputation and standing with its customers, who may prefer to simply avoid the drama and buy AI servers from rivals such as Dell or HPE.

“Given that Super Micro’s accounting concerns have become more acute since Super Micro’s quarter ended, its weakness could ultimately benefit Dell more in the coming quarter,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note this week.

A representative for the Nasdaq said the exchange doesn’t comment on the delisting process for individual companies, but the rules suggest the process could take about a year before a final decision.

A plan of compliance

The Nasdaq warned Super Micro on Sept. 17 that it was at risk of being delisted. That gave the company 60 days to submit a plan of compliance to the exchange, and because the deadline falls on a Sunday, the effective date for the submission is Monday.

If Super Micro’s plan is acceptable to Nasdaq staff, the company is eligible for an extension of up to 180 days to file its year-end report. The Nasdaq wants to see if Super Micro’s board of directors has investigated the company’s accounting problem, what the exact reason for the late filing was and a timeline of actions taken by the board.

The Nasdaq says it looks at several factors when evaluating a plan of compliance, including the reasons for the late filing, upcoming corporate events, the overall financial status of the company and the likelihood of a company filing an audited report within 180 days. The review can also look at information provided by outside auditors, the SEC or other regulators.

Lightning Round: Super Micro is still a sell due to accounting irregularities

Last week, Super Micro said it was doing everything it could to remain listed on the Nasdaq, and said a special committee of its board had investigated and found no wrongdoing. Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the company would receive the board committee’s report as soon as last week. A company spokesperson didn’t respond when asked by CNBC if that report had been received.

If the Nasdaq rejects Super Micro’s compliance plan, the company can request a hearing from the exchange’s Hearings Panel to review the decision. Super Micro won’t be immediately kicked off the exchange – the hearing panel request starts a 15-day stay for delisting, and the panel can decide to extend the deadline for up to 180 days.

If the panel rejects that request or if Super Micro gets an extension and fails to file the updated financials, the company can still appeal the decision to another Nasdaq body called the Listing Council, which can grant an exception.

Ultimately, the Nasdaq says the extensions have a limit: 360 days from when the company’s first late filing was due.

A poor track record

There’s one factor at play that could hurt Super Micro’s chances of an extension. The exchange considers whether the company has any history of being out of compliance with SEC regulations.

Between 2015 and 2017, Super Micro misstated financials and published key filings late, according to the SEC. It was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2017 and was relisted two years later.

Super Micro “might have a more difficult time obtaining extensions as the Nasdaq’s literature indicates it will in part ‘consider the company’s specific circumstances, including the company’s past compliance history’ when determining whether an extension is warranted,” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note earlier this month. He has a neutral rating on the stock.

History also reveals just how long the delisting process can take. 

Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., right, and Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. 

Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Super Micro missed an annual report filing deadline in June 2017, got an extension to December and finally got a hearing in May 2018, which gave it another extension to August of that year. It was only when it missed that deadline that the stock was delisted.

In the short term, the bigger worry for Super Micro is whether customers and suppliers start to bail.

Aside from the compliance problems, Super Micro is a fast-growing company making one of the most in-demand products in the technology industry. Sales more than doubled last year to nearly $15 billion, according to unaudited financial reports, and the company has ample cash on its balance sheet, analysts say. Wall Street is expecting even more growth to about $25 billion in sales in its fiscal 2025, according to FactSet.

Super Micro said last week that the filing delay has “had a bit of an impact to orders.” In its unaudited September quarter results reported last week, the company showed growth that was slower than Wall Street expected. It also provided light guidance.

The company said one reason for its weak results was that it hadn’t yet obtained enough supply of Nvidia’s next-generation chip, called Blackwell, raising questions about Super Micro’s relationship with its most important supplier.

“We don’t believe that Super Micro’s issues are a big deal for Nvidia, although it could move some sales around in the near term from one quarter to the next as customers direct orders toward Dell and others,” wrote Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes in a note this week.

Super Micro’s head of corporate development, Michael Staiger, told investors on a call last week that “we’ve spoken to Nvidia and they’ve confirmed they’ve made no changes to allocations. We maintain a strong relationship with them.”

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Alibaba posts profit beat as China looks to prop up tepid consumer spend

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Alibaba posts profit beat as China looks to prop up tepid consumer spend

Alibaba Offices In Beijing

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba on Friday beat profit expectations in its September quarter, but sales fell short as sluggishness in the world’s second-largest economy hit consumer spending.

Alibaba said net income rose 58% year on year to 43.9 billion yuan ($6.07 billion) in the company’s quarter ended Sept. 30, on the back of the performance of its equity investments. This compares with an LSEG forecast of 25.83 billion yuan.

“The year-over-year increases were primarily attributable to the mark-to-market changes from our equity investments, decrease in impairment of our investments and increase in income from operations,” the company said of the annual profit jump in its earnings statement.

Revenue, meanwhile, came in at 236.5 billion yuan, 5% higher year on year but below an analyst forecast of 238.9 billion yuan, according to LSEG data.

The company’s New York-listed shares have gained ground this year to date, up more than 13%. The stock fell more than 2% in morning trading on Friday, after the release of the quarterly earnings.

Sales sentiment

Investors are closely watching the performance of Alibaba’s main business units, Taobao and Tmall Group, which reported a 1% annual uptick in revenue to 98.99 billion yuan in the September quarter.

The results come at a tricky time for Chinese commerce businesses, given a tepid retail environment in the country. Chinese e-commerce group JD.com also missed revenue expectations on Thursday, according to Reuters.

Markets are now watching whether a slew of recent stimulus measures from Beijing, including a five-year 1.4 trillion yuan package announced last week, will help resuscitate the country’s growth and curtail a long-lived real estate market slump.

The impact on the retail space looks promising so far, with sales rising by a better-than-expected 4.8% year on year in October, while China’s recent Singles’ Day shopping holiday — widely seen as a barometer for national consumer sentiment — regained some of its luster.

Alibaba touted “robust growth” in gross merchandise volume — an industry measure of sales over time that does not equate to the company’s revenue — for its Taobao and Tmall Group businesses during the festival, along with a “record number of active buyers.”

“Alibaba’s outlook remains closely aligned with the trajectory of the Chinese economy and evolving regulatory policies,” ING analysts said Thursday, noting that the company’s Friday report will shed light on the Chinese economy’s growth momentum.

The e-commerce giant’s overseas online shopping businesses, such as Lazada and Aliexpress, meanwhile posted a 29% year-on-year hike in sales to 31.67 billion yuan.  

Cloud business accelerates

Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group reported year-on-year sales growth of 7% to 29.6 billion yuan in the September quarter, compared with a 6% annual hike in the three-month period ended in June. The slight acceleration comes amid ongoing efforts by the company to leverage its cloud infrastructure and reposition itself as a leader in the booming artificial intelligence space.

“Growth in our Cloud business accelerated from prior quarters, with revenues from public cloud products growing in double digits and AI-related product revenue delivering triple-digit growth. We are more confident in our core businesses than ever and will continue to invest in supporting long-term growth,” Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu said in a statement Friday.

Stymied by Beijing’s sweeping 2022 crackdown on large internet and tech companies, Alibaba last year overhauled the division’s leadership and has been shaping it as a future growth driver, stepping up competition with rivals including Baidu and Huawei domestically, and Microsoft and OpenAI in the U.S.

Alibaba, which rolled out its own ChatGPT-style product Tongyi Qianwen last year, this week unveiled its own AI-powered search tool for small businesses in Europe and the Americas, and clinched a key five-year partnership to supply cloud services to Indonesian tech giant GoTo in September.

Speaking at the Apsara Conference in September, Alibaba’s Wu said the company’s cloud unit is investing “with unprecedented intensity, in the research and development of AI technology and the building of its global infrastructure,” noting that the future of AI is “only beginning.”

Correction: This article has been updated to reflect that Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group reported quarterly revenue of 29.6 billion yuan in the September quarter.

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