Post-spring SP+ rankings: Who moved up after the portal and spring practice
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
And so we begin. My annual college football series typically starts in February, but the effects of the spring portal window — namely, that I didn’t want to write a preview that would be outdated within days — dictated that we wait a bit. But now it’s time. Starting in a few days, we’ll preview one conference per week.
First, however, we must update the numbers. I released initial 2024 SP+ projections in early February, as is customary, but now that almost every team has released official 2024 rosters (still waiting on you, Air Force and Coastal Carolina) and the spring portal dance has mostly slowed to a crawl, it’s time to do it again.
Below are updated SP+ projections for the coming season. A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up more than half of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?
(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.)
There are some who saw what the Carolina Hurricanes did at the trade deadline — or perhaps failed to do after they traded Mikko Rantanen — and believe they’re cooked when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs. However, based on the projections from Stathletes, the Canes remain the team with the highest chances of winning the Cup, at 16.7%.
Standing before them on Sunday are the Winnipeg Jets (5 p.m. ET, ESPN+). The Jets had a relatively quiet deadline, adding Luke Schenn and Brandon Tanev, though sometimes these additions are the types of small tweaks that can push a contender over the edge. As it stands, the Jets enter their showdown against the Canes with the sixth-highest Cup chances, at 8.7%.
Carolina has made two trips to the Cup Final: a loss to the Detroit Red Wings in 2002 and a win over the Edmonton Oilers in 2006. The Canes have reached the conference finals three times since (2009, 2019, 2023). Winnipeg has yet to make the Cup Final, and was defeated 4-1 in the 2018 Western Conference finals by the Vegas Golden Knights in the club’s lone trip to the penultimate stage.
Both clubs are due. Will this be their year?
There is a lot of runway left until the final day of the season on April 17, and we’ll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide detail on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Saturday’s schedule
Friday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Calgary Flames
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Sunday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers, 1 p.m. (TNT)
Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals, 3:30 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild, 3:30 p.m. (TNT)
Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes, 5 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers, 6 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, 8 p.m.
Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, 9 p.m.
New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, 9 p.m.
Saturday’s scoreboard
Ottawa Senators 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Seattle Kraken 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Colorado Avalanche 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Calgary Flames 1, Montreal Canadiens 0
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Edmonton Oilers 5, Dallas Stars 4
New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 106.3
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 102.8
Next game: @ UTA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 101.5
Next game: @ CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91.3
Next game: vs. DET (Monday)
Playoff chances: 85.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85.9
Next game: @ OTT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 8.3%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85.9
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 19.8%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.5%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 71.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 27
Metro Division
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 117.1
Next game: vs. SEA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 101.5
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92.3
Next game: @ PHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 86.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 89.9
Next game: @ NYR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 27.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 88.5
Next game: vs. CBJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 31.1%
Tragic number: 39
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 86.0
Next game: @ LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 29.7%
Tragic number: 38
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 79.4
Next game: vs. NJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 9.5%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.1
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 25
Central Division
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 117.9
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 109.3
Next game: @ VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: vs. CHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98.9
Next game: vs. PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 94.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 37.2%
Tragic number: 34
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85.9
Next game: vs. TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 26.4%
Tragic number: 35
Points: 55
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 71.6
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 24
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 62.8
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 16
Pacific Division
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 108.5
Next game: vs. LA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 101.5
Next game: @ BUF (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 21
Points pace: 98.1
Next game: @ VGK (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 84.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 27.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91.3
Next game: vs. DAL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 30.9%
Tragic number: 40
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 80.7
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 32
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 74.3
Next game: @ WSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters.
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 55
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
EDMONTON, Alberta — Dallas Stars forward Roope Hintz was hit by a puck shot by Edmonton Oilers center Adam Henrique and left the ice with a towel pressed against his bloody face Saturday night.
Hintz extended his stick toward Henrique, whose wrist shot sent the puck under Hintz’s visor during his club’s 5-4 loss to the Oilers. He was on the ice, with his face in a towel, as the team’s medical staff assessed him and helped him skate toward the dressing room.
After the loss, Dallas coach Peter DeBoer said Hintz was at a local hospital, receiving tests. The coach added that the initial report was fairly optimistic for Hintz, 28, who has 25 goals and 52 points.
“Everyone’s optimistic that it’s not ‘serious, serious,'” DeBoer said. “But we won’t know until we get testing.”
The short-handed Stars rallied from a 5-1 deficit before eventually losing. Trade deadline acquisition Mikko Rantanen had a goal and an assist in his debut for Dallas, which had its four-game winning streak stopped. Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn and Matt Dumba also scored for the Stars.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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