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And so we begin. My annual college football series typically starts in February, but the effects of the spring portal window — namely, that I didn’t want to write a preview that would be outdated within days — dictated that we wait a bit. But now it’s time. Starting in a few days, we’ll preview one conference per week.

First, however, we must update the numbers. I released initial 2024 SP+ projections in early February, as is customary, but now that almost every team has released official 2024 rosters (still waiting on you, Air Force and Coastal Carolina) and the spring portal dance has mostly slowed to a crawl, it’s time to do it again.

Below are updated SP+ projections for the coming season. A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up more than half of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?

(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.)

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Leafs finish off Senators for spot in East semifinals

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Leafs finish off Senators for spot in East semifinals

OTTAWA, Ontario — Max Pacioretty scored the tiebreaking goal with less than six minutes remaining, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to a series-clinching 4-2 victory over the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night in Game 6 of their first-round matchup.

William Nylander had two goals, including an empty-netter in the final seconds, and an assist, and Auston Matthews added a power-play goal in the first period for Toronto. Anthony Stolarz made 20 saves.

Brady Tkachuk and David Perron scored for Ottawa. Thomas Chabot had two assists and Linus Ullmark made 19 saves.

The Maple Leafs advanced to take on the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games in their first-round series.

Toronto grabbed a 3-0 series lead, but Ottawa stayed alive with a 4-3 overtime victory in Game 4 and a 4-0 shutout in Game 5.

The Maple Leafs finally put away the Senators in Game 6.

With the game tied at 2, Pacioretty — a heathy scratch to start the series — scored the winner with 5:39 remaining off a pass from Max Domi that beat Ullmark to the glove side. It was Pacioretty’s first goal of the playoffs.

Scott Laughton hit the post before Nylander iced it into the empty net with 18.3 seconds left.

Matthews put Toronto up 1-0 on a power play with 70 seconds left in the first period when he fired a low shot through traffic.

Nylander, on his 29th birthday, made it 2-0 just 43 seconds into the second when he ripped a shot past Ullmark after Pacioretty forced a turnover from Senators defenseman Nick Jensen.

Ottawa got on the board at 7:28 when Tkachuk tipped a shot past Stolarz.

Toronto, which beat Ottawa four times in five playoffs series in the early 2000s, came close to restoring its two-goal lead when John Tavares poked a loose puck off the post before Ullmark denied Matthew Knies and Brandon Carlo off the rush.

Perron scored with 7:20 left in regulation to tie it on a shot from below the goal line that went in off Stolarz’s back to make it 2-2.

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Eichel’s 1st goal of series helps Knights advance

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Eichel's 1st goal of series helps Knights advance

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Jack Eichel scored his first goal of the series to give Vegas the lead late in the second period, and Adin Hill held it up on a 29-save night to spur the Golden Knights on to the second round with a 3-2 victory in Game 6 against the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night.

Shea Theodore scored first and Mark Stone scored last for Vegas, which will face the winner of the Edmonton-Los Angeles series. The Oilers took a 3-2 lead on the Kings into Game 6 on their home ice later Thursday.

Minnesota has lost nine consecutive series in the NHL playoffs and last made it out of the first round 10 years ago.

Ryan Hartman had two goals for the Wild, including a wraparound with 3:27 left that came 31 seconds after Stone had just given the Golden Knights a two-goal lead.

Stone, who set up Eichel with a long pass out of the zone that was inches out of reach of the stick of Kirill Kaprizov after he dived to try to prevent the breakaway, had four points in the last three games. Neither Stone nor Eichel recorded a single point in the first three games.

Hartman tied the game for the Wild with four seconds left in the first period, a goal safe from replay review unlike his go-ahead score in Game 5 with 1:15 remaining in regulation that was revoked for an offside call after Vegas challenged.

The Wild were unshaken by the consecutive overtime losses that erased their 2-1 lead, confident they measured up to the deeper Golden Knights and could still take the series.

They were quickly playing from behind, though, after Marco Rossi got the dreaded double minor penalty for high-sticking Brayden McNabb with just 2:27 elapsed in the game.

Theodore wristed in a shot from the high slot with Stone and Tomas Hertl screening Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson, immediately quieting the crowd near the end of the first power play. Gustavsson, who was forced out of Game 5 after two periods due to an illness, had 20 saves.

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Draisaitl, Hellebuyck, Kucherov are Hart finalists

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Draisaitl, Hellebuyck, Kucherov are Hart finalists

Edmonton Oilers star forward Leon Draisaitl, Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and Tampa Bay Lightning standout Nikita Kucherov were named finalists for the 2024-25 Hart Memorial Trophy on Thursday.

The award is presented “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team” and voted on by members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

Draisaitl, 29, led the NHL in goals (52), tied for third in points (106) and was a career-best plus-32 in 71 games this season. He won the award in 2019-20 and is a two-time finalist.

Hellebuyck, 31, led the league in wins (47), goals-against average (2.00) and shutouts (eight) and was second in save percentage (.925) among goalies to play at least 25 games. The Vezina Trophy finalist as the best goaltender in the NHL is a first-time Hart finalist.

Kucherov, 31, led the NHL in scoring for the second consecutive season with 121 points (37 goals, 84 assists). He won the Hart Trophy in 2018-19 and is a three-time finalist.

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