Remember Aaron Judge’s miserable April? Ancient history
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
NEW YORK — For all the data available to analyze the players and events on the diamond, sometimes the reason a batter abruptly snaps out of a slump is elementary. At least it was for Aaron Judge, currently the hottest hitter on the planet.
“I think just not missing the ball,” Judge said with a chuckle. “When I’m getting a pitch to hit, trying to just get the barrel on it, and it’s working right now.”
Judge owned a .197 batting average and .725 OPS after an oh-fer in a loss on May 2. Though the Yankees were 20-13, powered by one of the stingiest pitching staffs in the majors and newcomer Juan Soto‘s near daily exploits, Judge’s surprisingly slow April hardly went unnoticed. Since then, though, Judge has resumed being his typical MVP self — he was named American League Player of the Week on Monday — while the Yankees have, as a result, reached another level, winning 13 of their last 16 games.
Judge is batting .436 with seven home runs, 10 doubles and 15 walks over that stretch. His on-base percentage since May 3 is .563. His slugging percentage is 1.000. Do the math, and his OPS is 1.563, raising his season total 263 points — from .725 to .988 — in less than three weeks.
Aaron Boone usually notices something — a swing, an at-bat, a batting practice session — that indicates Judge is about to bust out of a slump. Six-plus seasons around a player makes it almost second nature. But if there was a moment that helped spark this recent explosion — in which Judge has launched multiple missiles deep into the outfield grass — if not the bleacher seats — his manager didn’t see it.
“Not this time,” Boone said.
Judge has sparked an offense that had previously battled inconsistency even as the team found ways to win. The Yankees, after being shut out five times in their first 30 games, have scored at least five runs in eight of their last 15 games without being held scoreless. Judge’s production has elevated the Yankees from a team off to a surprising start without ace Gerrit Cole to a dominant ballclub with the second-best record in the big leagues. The Yankees, with Judge raking again, look like the Yankees again.
“I know people were kind of asking questions about his start of the year,” Yankees starter Nestor Cortes said. “But we know it just takes one swing of the bat for him to turn it around and that’s exactly what he’s done. So we’re happy that he’s hitting the ball and connecting with hard-hit balls.”
All through April, Judge was the most scrutinized hitter in the majors. Are his hands too high in his stance? Is he falling off with his swing too much? Why isn’t he obliterating mistakes?
There were valid questions about his health. Before spring training, Judge reiterated that his right big toe will require “constant maintenance” for the rest of his career after he tore a ligament running into the wall at Dodger Stadium last season. In March, he experienced enough abdominal pain to undergo testing, but no structural damage was discovered. He soon returned and was ready for the start of the season. He emphasized he was healthy, but conversations lingered even as he played every day.
All along, Boone said, Judge’s demeanor remained unchanged.
“You would never know if he has a series where he scuffles or a week where he scuffles or a week where he’s doing the things he is right now,” Boone said. “He’s really consistent in who he is and what he presents. I would say he’s the best I’ve ever seen at that.”
Ultimately, Judge pinned his frigid April on an inability to capitalize on mistakes. Too often he would foul off or swing through pitches he’s accustomed to hammering. He still took his walks and hit six home runs, but he wasn’t clicking. Rock bottom came April 20 when he struck out four times in four at-bats and heard boos from the home crowd.
That seems like a long time ago now. He leads the American League with 16 doubles. His 39 walks are the most in the majors. He’s tied for fourth with Shohei Ohtani with 13 home runs and is fifth in wRC+ (177).
Judge’s Baseball Savant page, a frosty blue through April, bleeds red again. He leads the majors in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. He has smashed a baseball 473 feet, the longest in the majors this season, at 115.7 mph and cracked another one 467 feet at 113 mph this month. He isn’t just doing damage, he’s bludgeoning pitches.
Soto has been everything the Yankees wanted. Giancarlo Stanton is so far rebounding strongly from a forgettable 2023 campaign. But nobody in the majors is inflicting more damage than Judge. He’s electrified an offense now pounding pitchers on a daily basis — by, like he says, not missing the ball.
“We’re just getting there,” Judge said.
While fans in Edmonton and Dallas are always singing about how they have friends in low places, only one of them has the high ground in the Western Conference finals. And that’s the Oilers after their 6-1 win Sunday in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.
With the series tied heading into Sunday, the objective for Game 3 was to gain a firm grasp of the conference finals, and the Oilers did just that by having five players with multipoint performances. As for the Stars, losing Game 3 left them trailing a series for the second time this postseason, with the only other such occurrence coming after Game 1 against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Now that the Oilers are in control of the series, what does it mean for them going forward? What must the Stars do differently ahead of Game 4 for them to return home tied rather than a game away from elimination? Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski examine those questions while delving into what lies ahead for two teams that not only faced each other in the conference finals last season but between them have been involved in every conference final since 2020.
Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A
Much could change between now and whenever the playoffs end. But for now, the argument could be made that this was the most important playoff game the Oilers have had this postseason.
The Oilers have had numerous strong performances, such as Game 3 against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round or their final two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals. But what made the Oilers’ performance in Game 3 against Dallas arguably their most important was that they found a balance between being difficult in the defensive zone while not relying on a shutout to accomplish that objective.
The Stars finished with 37 shots, 13 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and scored only once. Connor McDavid has repeatedly stressed that the Oilers can play defense, and that has been made clear over their past five games. But Sunday proved they didn’t need Stuart Skinner or their defensive structure to blank an opponent to win. — Ryan S. Clark
Dallas Stars
Grade: C+
The final score doesn’t reflect the majority of this game, which Dallas coach Pete DeBoer can mine for positives among the many (many) negatives and some mitigating circumstances. Having Roope Hintz warm up but not be able to go because of the foot injury he suffered from a Darnell Nurse slash in Game 2? That’s deflating. Having the on-ice officials miss a delay of game call on Brett Kulak in the first period only to have Evan Bouchard open the scoring 10 seconds later? Also deflating.
So it’s to the Stars’ credit that they got to their game at 5-on-5 in Game 3 better than they have in any game of the series, at least before Edmonton ran up the score in the third. The results weren’t there and a loss is a loss — and a loss by this margin is difficult to stomach — but their second period and the performances from some of their slumbering depth players give the Stars at least a glimmer.
However, there’s no question Edmonton has this thing in well in-hand and the Stars have to find a way to solve Skinner, which is not something I thought I’d be writing at this stage of the postseason. — Greg Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 3
Two goals and an assist for his seventh career multigoal playoff game. Hyman’s second goal was the Oilers’ fourth off the rush, the most in one game by any team this postseason. Hyman also was plus-5 Sunday.
Bouchard scored his sixth goal of the postseason and these two were on the ice for the first two Edmonton goals. At 5-on-5 this postseason, the Oilers are outscoring their opponents 7-1, and 5-0 in this series, when Bouchard and Kulak are on the ice.
0:48
Connor McDavid restores Oilers’ 2-goal lead
Connor McDavid finds the back of the net to restore the Oilers’ two-goal lead vs. the Stars.
3. Connor McDavid
C, Oilers
For all the talk about the lack of goals from the best hockey player in the world (which was odd because he had 20 points in 13 games and was a plus-7 entering Game 3 despite having only three goals), McDavid punched out a pair of tucks for his sixth career multigoal playoff game. Also, seeing McDavid with the puck barreling toward the net on a 3-on-1 is nightmare fuel for opponents. — Arda Ćcal
Players to watch in Game 4
Zach Hyman
LW, Oilers
To go from 16 goals last postseason to just three goals entering Game 3 of the conference finals is one way to assess Hyman. Another is to realize that he’s been the most physical player on a team that is among the tallest and heaviest in the NHL.
Hyman came into Game 3 leading the NHL with 99 hits. He remained physical Sunday by leading the way with six hits in a game that saw the Oilers continue their punishing style with 47. But to then see Hyman score two goals and finish with three points in addition to that physicality? It once again adds to the narrative that the Oilers might not only have more dimensions than last year’s team, they could be better than the team that finished Stanley Cup runner-up in 2024. — Clark
0:53
Zach Hyman’s 2nd goal puts Oilers up 4
Zach Hyman taps home his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up 5-1 vs. the Stars.
This is the first two-game losing streak for the Dallas goaltender in the playoffs. A lot of what happened in Game 3 wasn’t necessarily on him — a Connor McDavid beauty and a Zach Hyman breakaway were among the Edmonton tallies — but outside of the third period of Game 1, he’s not been a difference-maker in this series. Oettinger came into the game leading the playoffs with 5.58 goals saved above expected, according to Stathletes. The Stars have been able to depend on him as a slump-breaker. But this is his third game with a save percentage south of .900 in the series. As the Stars try to build on some positives from this game, they need Otter to provide the foundation for it — and in the process, silence those “U.S. backup!” chants from the Oilers fans. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 4
Are the Oilers about to do to the Stars what they did to the Golden Knights?
Simply put, the Oilers are where hope goes to die. Teams in a championship window that have yet to win a title are always being judged on their evolution. What the Oilers did to the Stars a year ago in the conference finals by winning the last three games showed that they could close out a series after trailing. This postseason Edmonton has shown a calculated and methodical coldness when it comes to putting away opponents.
The Golden Knights won Game 3 on a last-second goal to create the belief they may have found an opening. They didn’t score again for the rest of the playoffs after being in the top five of goals per game throughout the regular season. Breaking out for six goals to open the series seemed to be a sign the Stars may have found an opening. Since then? They’ve scored only once in the last six periods while facing questions about what’s happened to another team that went from being in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. — Clark
Can Dallas make Edmonton uncomfortable at all?
Our colleague Mark Messier made this point between periods of Game 3: The Stars have yet to do anything to get McDavid or Leon Draisaitl off their games. That extends to the rest of the Oilers. Outside of an anomalous run of three power-play goals in the third period of Game 1, there have been precious few instances of the Stars carrying play for long stretches or putting a scare into Edmonton at 5-on-5.
They had that for a bit in Game 3 with a dominant second period: plus-14 in shot attempts, plus-11 in scoring chances and a 10-1 advantage in high-danger shot attempts. But they were digging out of a 2-0 hole, only managed to get one goal of their own on the board and then McDavid stuck a dagger in them with 19 seconds left in the second.
The Stars need a lead. They need zone time. They need to get their rush game going: Skinner had a .897 save percentage on shots off the rush entering the game. Edmonton is playing with a champion’s confidence. Dallas has to find a way to inject a little doubt into its opponent or this series is going to end quickly. — Wyshynski
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