Singapore Airlines: Is flight turbulence getting worse – and what types are there?
Severe turbulence struck a Singapore Airlines flight from London Heathrow earlier today, with one man killed and many others “launched into the ceiling”.
Authorities believe a 73-year-old British man, who had a heart condition, likely died from cardiac arrest, with at least 30 others injured as a result of the turbulence.
Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said 146 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.
Read more:
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But what could have caused the incident, what types of turbulence exist, and are the events getting worse? Here’s what experts have said so far:
Pic: Reuters
What does the flight data show?
Flight data shows a spike in altitude of around 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm local time. Shortly after, the plane returned to a cruising altitude of around 37,000ft (11,277m).
According to Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a rapid change in vertical rate, consistent with a sudden turbulence event”.
At 3.03pm local time, the flight changed course and began its diversion to Bangkok.
Around 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – before landing in Bangkok at 3.45pm.
Source: Flightradar24. All times are local
What could have caused the turbulence?
Tim Atkinson, an aviation consultant and pilot, told the Sky News Daily podcast he believes “it’s fairly clear” the Singapore Airlines flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.
He noted that the area – called the Intertropical Convergence Zone – where the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 feet is “renowned among pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.
“Despite abundant caution occasionally, there’s turbulence ahead which can’t be identified, and the unfortunate result of an encounter is injury and, very rarely, fatality,” he said.
Mr Atkinson also noted that the larger the aircraft, “the worse the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption in the smoothness of the atmosphere, needs to be to cause major problems”.
He then said the 777 is “one of the largest and, I daresay, most solid airframes widely flying around the world”.
Pic: Reuters
What types of turbulence are there?
Sky News’ weather producer Jo Robinson notes there are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.
Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.
This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.
There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.
It is unclear what type of turbulence the Singapore Airlines flight went through.
How common is an incident like this?
Chris McGee, a commercial pilot for more than 20 years, said in her experience the plane did encounter CAT which is “almost impossible to predict” and comes “out of the blue”.
Ms McGee said turbulence is not in fact that rare, but to experience it to this degree is “phenomenally rare”.
“In my career I’ve experienced one incident of severe turbulence,” she said, adding that she has heard of maybe “two, possibly three incidents of something that extreme” from fellow pilots.
The reported 6,000-ft drop in under five minutes is quite normal in a controlled descent instigated by the pilot, she said.
However, what they experienced was not a nice smooth, controlled descent, but an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself around all over the sky”.
“It’s awful what happened to those on board, one death is tragic, other people were injured, but something like that is incredibly rare,” she said.
“We do train in the simulator every six months at least where we practicse things we can’t practise in the real aeroplane. Things like emergency procedures, abnormalities and unusual weather conditions like this, for example.
“We are taught how to fly the aeroplane through these extreme events and how to recover them should the plane depart from its normal flight mode.”
Her best advice for any passengers concerned about their safety on the flight is to follow what the cabin crew “strongly suggest and keep their seatbelts loosely tied at all times. On the flight deck that’s what we do. It will protect you”.
Pic: Reuters
Is turbulence getting worse?
It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.
In June last year, a study from Reading University found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.
Moderate turbulence was also found to have increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
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Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said at the time: “My message from this is we need to do something otherwise flights will become more turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”
Professor Paul Roundy, from the University of Albany, said on X on Tuesday that the 55% increase in “a very infrequent signal gives a real, but small, change in absolute risk”.
He noted that “it’s not something a randomly selected passenger should worry about,” before adding: “Airline travel of the future won’t be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have thousands of dead or injured passengers.
“It will mostly look like it does today.”
More than 100 politicians from 24 different countries, including the UK, the US and the EU, have written a joint letter condemning China over the “arbitrary detention and unfair trial” of Jimmy Lai, a tycoon and pro-democracy campaigner.
The parliamentarians, led by senior British Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, are “urgently” demanding the immediate release of the 77-year-old British citizen, who has been held in solitary confinement at a maximum security prison in Hong Kong for almost four years.
The letter – which will be embarrassing for Beijing – was made public on the eve of Mr Lai’s trial resuming and on the day after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit of economic powers in Brazil.
It also comes as Hong Kong jailed 45 pro-democracy activists.
The group of politicians, who also include representatives from Canada, Australia, Spain, Germany, Ukraine and France, said Mr Lai’s treatment was “inhumane”.
“He is being tried on trumped-up charges arising from his peaceful promotion of democracy, his journalism and his human rights advocacy,” they wrote in the letter, which has been seen by Sky News.
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Starmer meets Chinese president
“The world is watching as the rule of law, media freedom and human rights in Hong Kong are eroded and undermined.
“We stand together in our defence of these fundamental freedoms and in our demand that Jimmy Lai be released immediately and unconditionally.”
Sir Keir raised the case of Mr Lai during remarks released at the start of his talks with Mr Xi on Monday – the first meeting between a British prime minister and the Chinese leader in six years.
The prime minister could be heard expressing concerns about reports of Mr Lai’s deteriorating health. However, he did not appear to call for his immediate release.
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From October: ‘This is what Hong Kong is’
Ms Kearns, the MP for Rutland and Stamford in the East Midlands, said the meeting had been an opportunity to be unequivocal that the UK expects Mr Lai to be freed.
“Jimmy Lai is being inhumanely persecuted for standing up for basic human values,” she said in a statement, released alongside the letter.
“He represents the flame of freedom millions seek around the world.
“We have a duty to fight for Jimmy Lai as a British citizen, and to take a stand against the Chinese Community Party’s erosion of rule of law in Hong Kong.
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“This letter represents the strength of international feeling and commitment of parliamentarians globally to securing Jimmy Lai’s immediate release and return to the UK with his family.”
Mr Lai was famously the proprietor of the Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily in Hong Kong, which wrote scathing reports about the local authorities and the communist government in mainland China after Britain handed back the territory to Beijing in 1997.
The tabloid was a strong supporter of pro-democracy protesters who took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate against the government in 2019.
But the media mogul was arrested the following year – one of the first victims of a draconian new security law imposed by the Chinese Communist Party.
His newspaper was closed after his bank accounts were frozen.
Mr Lai has since been convicted of illegal assembly and fraud. He is now on trial for sedition over articles published in Apple Daily.
World
Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy activists after accusing them of trying to overthrow the city’s government
Forty-five pro-democracy activists have been jailed in Hong Kong’s largest ever national security trial.
The activists sentenced with jail terms ranging from four years to ten years were accused of conspiracy to commit subversion after holding an unofficial primary election in Hong Kong in 2020.
They were arrested in 2021.
Hong Kong authorities say the defendants were trying to overthrow the territory’s government.
Democracy activist Benny Tai received the longest sentence of ten years. He became the face of the movement when thousands of protesters took to the city’s streets during the “Umbrella Movement” demonstrations.
However, Hong Kong officials accused him of being behind the plan to organise elections to select candidates.
Tai had pleaded guilty, his lawyers argued he believed his election plan was allowed under the city’s Basic Law.
Another prominent activist Joshua Wong received a sentence of more than four years.
Joshua Wong was sentenced to more than four years Pic: AP
Wong became one of the leading figures in the protests. His activism started as a 15 year old when he spearheaded a huge rally against a government plan to change the school curriculum.
Then in 2019 Hong Kong erupted in protests after the city’s government proposed a bill that would allow extradition to mainland China. It peaked in June 2019 when Amnesty International reported that up to two million people marched on the streets, paralysing parts of Hong Kong’s business district.
The extradition bill was later dropped but it had ignited a movement demanding political change and freedom to elect their own leaders in Hong Kong.
China’s central government called the protests “riots” that could not continue.
Hong Kong introduced a national security law in the aftermath of the protests.
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A woman is taken away by police outside the court Pic: Reuters
The US has called the trial “politically motivated”.
Dozens of family and friends of the accused were waiting for the verdict outside the West Kowloon Magistrates Court.
British citizen and media mogul Jimmy Lai is due to testify on Wednesday.
Meeting on the sidelines of the G20 in Brazil, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told China’s President Xi Jinping he’s concerned about the health of Lai.
He faces charges of fraud and the 2019 protests. He has also been charged with sedition and collusion with foreign forces.
Tens of thousands of people have marched on New Zealand’s parliament in a protest in support of Maori rights.
The huge crowds took to the streets of Wellington in opposition to a law that could reshape the country’s founding treaty between the indigenous Maori people and the British crown.
The march was described as likely the country’s largest-ever protest in support of Maori rights.
The crowds gathered outside of New Zealand’s parliament.
Pic: AP
“We’re fighting for our tamariki [children], for our mokopuna [grandchildren], so they can have what we haven’t been able to have,” Shanell Bob said as she waited for the march to begin.
“It’s different to when I was a child. We’re stronger now, our tamariki [children] are stronger now, they know who they are, they’re proud of who they are.”
The bill the protesters oppose is unpopular and unlikely to become law, but opposition to it has exploded.
It would change the meaning of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi and prevent its principles from applying only to the Maori people – whose chiefs signed the document when New Zealand was colonised.
Tens of thousands of people walked through the streets of Wellington.
Pic: AP
Considered New Zealand’s founding document, it laid out the principles guiding the relationship between the British crown and the Maori in two versions – one in English and one in Maori.
The document gave Maori the same rights and privileges as British citizens, but the English and Maori versions differed in the degree to which the chiefs ceded power over their affairs, lands and autonomy.
Over time, the colonial rulers breached both versions, with Maori language and culture dwindling – the country’s indigenous people often barred from practicing it – and tribal land was confiscated.
Pic: AP
What’s in the controversial bill?
The bill has been drawn up by the libertarian ACT New Zealand party, a junior partner in the ruling centre-right coalition government.
It seeks to enshrine a narrower interpretation of the Treaty of Waitangi which it says discriminates against non-indigenous citizens.
Critics say it is motivated by a desire to reverse decades of policies that aimed to empower Maori people, who make up around 20% of the 5.3 million population.
New Zealand’s opposition leader Chris Hipkins (left) does a hongi with Hare Arapere as people gathered outside New Zealand’s parliament.
Pic: AP
In recent years, interpretation of clauses in the treaty have frequently guided legislation and policy, with rulings by the courts and a separate Maori tribunal resulting in growing Maori rights and privileges in the decades since independence in 1947.
The bill’s author, libertarian politician David Seymour, says that process of redress, following the earlier decades of breaches of the treaty, has created special treatment for the Maori – which he opposes.
Pic: AP
‘We’re going for a walk!’
“We’re going for a walk!” one organiser said from a stage, as crowds gathered at the opposite end of New Zealand’s capital at the beginning of the protest.
Some people taking part had travelled the length of the country over the past nine days.
Pic: AP
Diverse groups waited with Maori sovereignty flags at bus stops, which would have usually been occupied by morning commuters.
Youngsters were among those taking part as some schools said they wouldn’t register students as absent if they attended.
The city’s mayor joined in the protest as well as other politicians.
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Pic: AP
The Maori haka was performed by protesters as thousands more held signs in support as they lined the streets.
Some carried placards that bore jokes or insults aimed at politicians behind the bill, while others expressed pride in Maori identity, support for the protest or denounced the colonisation of the country.
Police said that about 42,000 people walked to the parliament’s grounds, with some spilling into the surrounding streets.
People sought the best vantage points, with some cramming themselves on to a children’s slide, as others climbed trees.
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New Zealand politician David Seymour.
Pic: AP
The legislation made it through its first vote last Thursday, after Mr Seymour made a political deal.
ACT’s coalition partners, the National Party and New Zealand First, agreed to support the bill through the first of its three readings, but both have said they will not support it to become law.
Mr Seymour briefly walked out on to the parliament’s forecourt to observe the protest and was booed by some.
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