Singapore Airlines: Is flight turbulence getting worse – and what types are there?
Severe turbulence struck a Singapore Airlines flight from London Heathrow earlier today, with one man killed and many others “launched into the ceiling”.
Authorities believe a 73-year-old British man, who had a heart condition, likely died from cardiac arrest, with at least 30 others injured as a result of the turbulence.
Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said 146 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.
Read more:
Images show damage in plane after one killed in turbulence
But what could have caused the incident, what types of turbulence exist, and are the events getting worse? Here’s what experts have said so far:
Pic: Reuters
What does the flight data show?
Flight data shows a spike in altitude of around 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm local time. Shortly after, the plane returned to a cruising altitude of around 37,000ft (11,277m).
According to Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a rapid change in vertical rate, consistent with a sudden turbulence event”.
At 3.03pm local time, the flight changed course and began its diversion to Bangkok.
Around 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – before landing in Bangkok at 3.45pm.
Source: Flightradar24. All times are local
What could have caused the turbulence?
Tim Atkinson, an aviation consultant and pilot, told the Sky News Daily podcast he believes “it’s fairly clear” the Singapore Airlines flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.
He noted that the area – called the Intertropical Convergence Zone – where the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 feet is “renowned among pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.
“Despite abundant caution occasionally, there’s turbulence ahead which can’t be identified, and the unfortunate result of an encounter is injury and, very rarely, fatality,” he said.
Mr Atkinson also noted that the larger the aircraft, “the worse the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption in the smoothness of the atmosphere, needs to be to cause major problems”.
He then said the 777 is “one of the largest and, I daresay, most solid airframes widely flying around the world”.
Pic: Reuters
What types of turbulence are there?
Sky News’ weather producer Jo Robinson notes there are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.
Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.
This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.
There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.
It is unclear what type of turbulence the Singapore Airlines flight went through.
How common is an incident like this?
Chris McGee, a commercial pilot for more than 20 years, said in her experience the plane did encounter CAT which is “almost impossible to predict” and comes “out of the blue”.
Ms McGee said turbulence is not in fact that rare, but to experience it to this degree is “phenomenally rare”.
“In my career I’ve experienced one incident of severe turbulence,” she said, adding that she has heard of maybe “two, possibly three incidents of something that extreme” from fellow pilots.
The reported 6,000-ft drop in under five minutes is quite normal in a controlled descent instigated by the pilot, she said.
However, what they experienced was not a nice smooth, controlled descent, but an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself around all over the sky”.
“It’s awful what happened to those on board, one death is tragic, other people were injured, but something like that is incredibly rare,” she said.
“We do train in the simulator every six months at least where we practicse things we can’t practise in the real aeroplane. Things like emergency procedures, abnormalities and unusual weather conditions like this, for example.
“We are taught how to fly the aeroplane through these extreme events and how to recover them should the plane depart from its normal flight mode.”
Her best advice for any passengers concerned about their safety on the flight is to follow what the cabin crew “strongly suggest and keep their seatbelts loosely tied at all times. On the flight deck that’s what we do. It will protect you”.
Pic: Reuters
Is turbulence getting worse?
It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.
In June last year, a study from Reading University found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.
Moderate turbulence was also found to have increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
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Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said at the time: “My message from this is we need to do something otherwise flights will become more turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”
Professor Paul Roundy, from the University of Albany, said on X on Tuesday that the 55% increase in “a very infrequent signal gives a real, but small, change in absolute risk”.
He noted that “it’s not something a randomly selected passenger should worry about,” before adding: “Airline travel of the future won’t be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have thousands of dead or injured passengers.
“It will mostly look like it does today.”
An Israeli delegation is heading to Qatar for indirect talks with Hamas on a possible hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza.
The development comes ahead of a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in Washington DC on Monday aimed at pushing forward peace efforts.
The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to secure a permanent ceasefire and an end to the 21-month-long war in Gaza.
Smoke rises in Gaza following an explosion. Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump said on Tuesday on social media that Israel had agreed “to the necessary conditions to finalise” a deal on a truce.
And Hamas, which runs the coastal Palestinian territory, said on Friday it has responded to the US-backed proposal in a “positive spirit”.
So what is in the plan?
The plan is for an initial 60-day ceasefire that would include a partial release of hostages held by the militant group in exchange for more humanitarian supplies being allowed into Gaza.
The proposed truce calls for talks on ending the war altogether.
The war in Gaza began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 others hostage. Dozens of hostages have since been released or rescued by Israeli forces, while 50 remain in captivity, including about 30 who Israel believes are dead.
The proposal would reportedly see about half of the living hostages and about half of the dead hostages returned to Israel over 60 days, in five separate releases.
Eight living hostages would be freed on the first day and two released on the 50th day, according to an Arab diplomat from one of the mediating countries, it is reported.
Five dead hostages would be returned on the seventh day, five more on the 30th day and eight more on the 60th day.
That would leave 22 hostages still held in Gaza, 10 of them believed to be alive. It is not clear whether Israel or Hamas would determine who is to be released.
Hamas has sought guarantees that the initial truce would lead to a total end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
A Hamas official has said Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.
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Contractors allege colleagues ‘fired on Palestinians’
Possible challenges ahead
And in a sign of the potential challenges still facing the two sides, a Palestinian official from a militant group allied with Hamas said concerns remained.
The concerns were over humanitarian aid, passage through the Rafah crossing in southern Israel to Egypt and clarity over a timetable for Israeli troop withdrawals.
Hamas’s “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.
But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”
The Times of Israel reported Hamas has proposed three amendments to the proposed framework.
According to a source, Hamas wants the agreement to say that talks on a permanent ceasefire will continue until an agreement is reached; that aid will fully resume through mechanisms backed by the United Nations and other international aid organisations; and that the IDF withdraws to positions it maintained before the collapse of the previous ceasefire in March.
Mr Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that changes sought by Hamas to the ceasefire proposal were “not acceptable to Israel”.
However, his office said the delegation would still fly to Qatar to “continue efforts to secure the return of our hostages based on the Qatari proposal that Israel agreed to”.
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Another potential challenge is that Mr Netanyahu has repeatedly said Hamas must be disarmed, which is a demand the militant group has so far refused to discuss.
Hamas has said it is willing to free all the hostages in exchange for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops and an end to the war in Gaza.
Israel rejects that offer, saying it will agree to end the war if Hamas surrenders, disarms and goes into exile – something that the group refuses.
Previous negotiations have stalled over Hamas demands of guarantees that further negotiations would lead to the war’s end, while Mr Netanyahu has insisted Israel would resume fighting to ensure the group’s destruction.
They rose to their feet in ecstatic surprise, shouting “heydar, heydar” – a Shia victory chant.
This was the first public appearance of their supreme leader since Israel began attacking their country.
He emerged during evening prayers in his private compound. He said nothing but looked stern and resolute as he waved to the crowd.
He has spent the last weeks sequestered in a bunker, it is assumed, for his safety following numerous death threats from Israel and the US.
His re-emergence suggests a return to normality and a sense of defiance that we have witnessed here on the streets of Tehran too.
Earlier, we had filmed as men in black marched through the streets of the capital to the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, whipping their backs with metal flails.
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Defiance on streets of Tehran
This weekend they mark the Shia festival of Ashura as they have for 14 centuries. But this year has poignant significance for Iranians far more than most.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday. We filmed men and women weeping as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The armies of the Caliph Yazid killed the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh-century Battle of Karbala.
Shiite Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates, of resistance against oppression and injustice.
But more so than ever in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here among people and officials.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
Death to Israel chants resounded outside the mosque in skies which were filled for 12 days with the sounds of Israeli jets. There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
A woman was dismissive about the US president. “I don’t think about Trump, nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby draw a line between Imam Hussein’s story and current events. The seventh-century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
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Officially Iran is projecting defiance but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times,” she said.
“We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
But there is also a hint of conciliation: Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News that back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. That proved unfounded, the government is in control here.
For many Iranians, it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.
It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.
But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.
The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.
Iranians gather ahead of Ashura
We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.
The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.
Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.
The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.
Men and women weeped as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine
Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.
Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.
“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.
There is a renewed sense of defiance here.
One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”
‘I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him,’ one woman tells Sky News
A woman was dismissive about the US president.
“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”
Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.
Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.
Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.
Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.
“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”
Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani said it would be a mistake for Israel to attack again
But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.
Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.
For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.
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