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In 1997, Labour told us “Things Can Only Get Better”, before Tony Blair won a landslide general election victory.

This year, Rishi Sunak appears to have concluded that things are not going to get any better for the Tories if he delays an election until the autumn.

His dash to the polls on 4 July suggests that a prime minister with a reputation for caution and an obsession with spreadsheets is actually a gambler.

To call a general election with his party consistently trailing Labour by 20 points in the Sky News poll of polls at best looks courageous, at worst reckless.

If he can pull it off, however, he will have achieved the Tories’ greatest election win against the odds since John Major won a 21-seat majority in 1992.

Mr Sunak and Mr Major do have some things in common. Both were previously chancellor of the exchequer before becoming PM and both are accused by critics of being – well, frankly – a bit dull.

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But in opting for a summer rather than autumn election, the normally cautious Mr Sunak is gambling on a number of fronts: chiefly the economy, migration and his “stop the boats” Rwanda policy.

On the economy, at Prime Minister’s Questions a few hours before Mr Sunak’s shock announcement, he told MPs inflation was “back to normal” and “the plan is working”.

Well, up to a point. Yes, inflation has hit its lowest level in nearly three years. But the fall from 3.2% to 2.3% was not as big as the government had hoped for.

And a June cut in interest rates now looks less likely. And what has happened to Mr Sunak’s pledge to cut income tax from 20p to 19p in the pound by the general election? Gone, presumably.

After his Budget in March, an upbeat Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, told Sky News his 2p cut in national insurance was “absolutely” not the “last throw of the dice” before the election.

With an October or November general election, which Mr Hunt clearly favoured, looking likely, another mini-Budget in September – with that promised income tax cut – was predicted.

But by opting for 4 July, the best the Conservatives can promise now in Mr Sunak’s dash to the polls is tax cuts after the election if he’s back in Downing Street. But we’ve heard all that before.

And on migration, the news is mixed. Nearly 10,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats already this year – a record – and the numbers invariably rise in the better summer weather.

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Starmer
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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are ahead in the polls

So far, the threat of deportation to Rwanda hasn’t proved to be the deterrent the government hoped – but that could change once flights get off the ground next month. That could be a turning point.

Other good news for Mr Sunak in a snap poll is that although Labour are ready for an election, Reform UK are nowhere near ready. That was clearly a factor in the PM opting for an early poll.

The last general election held in July was in 1945, on 5 July, when Labour’s Clement Attlee – who had been deputy PM during the wartime coalition – defeated Winston Churchill with a 147-seat majority.

Margaret Thatcher was a fan of June elections, opting for 9 June in 1983, when she won a 144-seat majority, and 11 June in 1987, when her majority was 102 over Neil Kinnock’s Labour.

As for July, is a general election in high summer a good idea? Scots will complain that 4 July falls during their school holidays, which begin on 28 June and last until 16 August.

And what about the sporting calendar? The big sporting event of this summer is the Euros, in which Gareth Southgate’s England football team are strong contenders. 4 July is also in the first week of Wimbledon.

Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP
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Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP

The Euros start on 14 June and if England – or Scotland, to be fair, but less likely – progress to the last 16, those games are between 29 June and 2 July and the quarter-finals on 5 and 6 July.

General election coverage competing with football mania? Is Mr Sunak hoping for less election coverage? Or are the Conservatives’ election hopes in the hands of Gareth and the lads?

If history is any guide, footie fan Mr Sunak will hope Harry Kane and the boys powering their way towards the Euros final will create a feelgood factor that helps him win at the polls.

According to political folklore, Harold Wilson blamed England’s World Cup quarter-final defeat by West Germany, four days before the 1970 general election, for his defeat by Edward Heath.

So while Mr Sunak apparently doesn’t believe things can only get better for the Tories between July and the autumn, he will be hoping England’s footballers help things get better for him by 4 July.

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Boris Johnson considered raiding Dutch warehouse during pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines

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Boris Johnson considered raiding Dutch warehouse during pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines

Boris Johnson claims he considered authorising a raid on a warehouse in the Netherlands during the pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines.

In his upcoming memoir, he described meeting senior military officials in March 2021 to discuss the plans, which he admitted were “nuts”.

Another extract from his upcoming book, released by the Daily Mail, describes Mr Johnson trying to convince the Duke of Sussex not to move to the United States.

He said Downing Street and Buckingham Palace asked him to speak to Prince Harry in January 2020, hours after announcing he and his wife Meghan planned to step away from royal life.

According to Mr Johnson, who was prime minister at the time, there was “a ridiculous business… when they made me try to persuade Harry to stay. Kind of manly pep talk. Totally hopeless”, the Daily Mail reported.

The men met for 20 minutes on the sidelines of a UK-Africa investment summit in London’s Docklands.

The Duke of Sussex (left) with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as they attend the UK-Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel London in 2020
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Boris Johnson said he held a ‘manly pep talk’ with Prince Harry at a summit in 2020. Pic: PA

The Duke of Sussex (left) with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as they attend the UK-Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel London in 2020
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Boris Johnson claims he was asked to try to convince Prince Harry not to move to the US. Pic: PA

Meanwhile, the latest extract describes Mr Johnson writing about a point during the pandemic when AstraZeneca was “trying, in vain” to export the vaccine to the UK from Holland.

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At the time, the AstraZeneca jabs were at the heart of a cross-Channel row over exports.

He wrote he “had commissioned some work on whether it might be technically feasible to launch an aquatic raid on a warehouse in Leiden, in the Netherlands, and to take that which was legally ours and which the UK desperately needed”.

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He believed the EU was treating the UK “with malice and with spite” due to the European rollout being slower than in the UK.

The extract says military chiefs told Mr Johnson the plan was “certainly feasible”, using rigid inflatable boats to navigate Dutch canals.

But the senior officer said the UK would “have to explain why we are effectively invading a long-standing Nato ally”.

“They wanted to stop us getting the five million doses, and yet they showed no real sign of wanting to use the AstraZeneca doses themselves,” Mr Johnson wrote.

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UK weather: Wind warning issued by Met Office after week of heavy rain and floods

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UK weather: Wind warning issued by Met Office after week of heavy rain and floods

A weather warning for wind has been issued for Wales and southwest England on Sunday after rain battered parts of the UK this week.

The yellow warning covers Cardiff and West Wales, as well as most of the South West from Weston Super Mare in the north and Swanage in the south to Penzance, Cornwall.

According to the Met Office, it begins at 9am on Sunday and lasts until midnight.

The latest weather forecast for your area

They said in the warning Sunday will start dry and clear for most of the country, but wind and rain will then move in from the South West.

Wind speeds are set to get up to 55mph in affected areas, and possibly reach 60mph in exposed coastal regions.

A warning for wind has been issued for Sunday. Pic: Met Office
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A warning for wind has been issued for Sunday. Pic: Met Office

Gusts will be accompanied by outbreaks of rain, which could lead to surface water on roads and public transport delays, according to the Met Office.

Winds will then gradually ease across Wales and inland parts of southwest England throughout Sunday evening, but the weather agency warned it may remain fairly windy along some coasts overnight.

In their outlook for Monday to Wednesday, the Met Office said “unsettled” conditions will remain for the start of the next week, “with heavy rain and brisk winds and temperature on the cool side”.

It added conditions will be “slowly brightening up from the west as we head through Tuesday and into Wednesday”.

It comes after heavy rain and flooding struck across the UK this week, with an amber warning issued by the Met Office.

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As a result of the downpours, central and southern counties in England have already experienced more than 250% of their average September rainfall.

The Environment Agency said around 650 properties were flooded in Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire and the Home Counties.

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From Monday: House flooded as heavy rain hits UK

Areas affected by the heavy rain included Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Leicestershire and the West Midlands, which were hit by flash floods.

The Met Office said the regions could have had 30-40mm of rainfall within three hours.

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The children who kill: Are they getting younger?

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The children who kill: Are they getting younger?

When 19-year-old Shawn Seesahai was beaten and hacked to death in a savage machete attack in a Wolverhampton park, detectives were shocked to discover his killers were just 12 years old.

Days earlier, in another part of the country, Alfie Lewis, 15, was stabbed to death by a 14-year-old boy outside a primary school in Leeds.

Later the same month, a girl and boy went on trial in Manchester for what was described as the “sadistic” knife murder of 16-year-old Brianna Ghey when they were both aged 15.

Murders carried out by children have always horrified us as a society – but are they getting more common or are killers getting younger?

A Sky News analysis of the available Office for National Statistics data on the number of suspects aged under 16 who have been convicted of homicide – murder, manslaughter and infanticide – shows a relatively flat trendline from 2006/7 to 2022/3.

The percentage of homicide convictions going to under-16s compared with other ages doubled over 10 years, however, from about 1 in 50 in 2012/13 to 1 in 25 in 2022/23.

The 2022/23 figure is the highest since at least 2008/09, but as the percentage of under-16s is low overall the averages can be heavily skewed by relatively few convictions.

Percentage of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Percentage of under-16s convicted of homicide

‘Much more serious and extreme’

Dr Simon Harding, a criminology expert, thinks there’s been “an increase in serious violence in young people” and that there is a greater “acceptance of extreme levels of violence between” children.

“Even something that might have been settled with fisticuffs or anti-social behaviour can suddenly dramatically turn into something much more serious and extreme,” he says.

“What 10 years ago might have been a punch in the face, five years ago might have been a stab to the arm or leg is now a stab to the neck or heart, which can lead to death.”

Bardia Shojaeifard was found guilty of murder after a jury heard how he attacked Alfie on his way home on 7 November last year “in revenge” for an altercation a week earlier.

A picture recovered from the phone of Bardia Shojaeifard shows him posing with a knife.
Pic: West Yorkshire Police
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Shojaeifard posed with knives. Pic: West Yorkshire Police

He had posed for pictures with knives and took a 13cm-long kitchen knife he used to kill Alfie from his home with him to school in the Horsforth area of Leeds.

Sentencing him to life detention with a minimum term of 13 years in June, a judge described Shojaeifard as “outwardly normal” but with a “worrying interest in knives”.

Shawn, who had been walking through Stowlawn playing fields in Wolverhampton with a friend on 13 November last year, was struck on his back, legs and skull, while the fatal wound was more than 20cm deep and punctured his heart.

Read more:
Children and teenagers convicted of knife killings
Grieving sister shocked by age of killers

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One of Shawn’s killers poses with a machete

The boys responsible, the UK’s youngest knife murderers – who were detained for at least eight-and-a-half years – are believed to be the youngest children to be found guilty of murder since Robert Thompson and Jon Venables.

Thompson and Venables were aged just 10 when they abducted, tortured and murdered two-year-old James Bulger in 1993 and 11 when they were found guilty of murder.

James Bulger seen on CCTV being led away before his murder
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James Bulger seen on CCTV being led away before his murder

A quarter of a century earlier, 11-year-old Mary Bell was sentenced to life detention in 1968 after being found guilty of manslaughter for fatally strangling two boys, aged four and three.

She was also aged just 10 at the time she killed her first victim.

Bell was 10 when she strangled her first victim. Pic: PA
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Bell was 10 when she strangled her first victim. Pic: PA

But Sharon Carr is believed to be the youngest girl in the country to have committed murder.

Carr was 12 when she fatally stabbed and mutilated stranger Katie Rackliff, 18, after she left a nightclub in Camberley, Surrey, in 1992, but she wasn’t convicted for another five years.

In another crime that shocked the nation, Ricky Preddie was 13 and his brother Danny was 12 when they killed 10-year-old schoolboy Damilola Taylor in 2000, although they weren’t jailed for his manslaughter until 2006.

Damilola Taylor. Pic: PA
Image:
Damilola Taylor. Pic: PA

Is there now a greater ‘willingness to inflict pain’?

So there have always been cases of children who commit murder and other shocking crimes, but Dr Harding says: “We just tend to forget.”

However, from his experience preparing expert reports on court cases involving gang crime, exploitation and modern slavery, he says he has noticed a greater “willingness to inflict pain and suffering”.

Earlier this year, Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe were jailed for life with minimum terms of 22 years and 20 years respectively after they were found guilty of murdering Brianna when they were both aged just 15.

Brianna Ghey's killers  Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe
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Brianna Ghey’s killers – Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe

Jenkinson lured the vulnerable teenager, who was transgender, to Linear Park in the village of Culcheth, near Warrington, where she was stabbed 28 times in the head, neck, chest and back with a hunting knife on 11 February last year.

The pair had a fascination with violence and torture, prepared a “kill list” and meticulously planned Brianna’s “frenzied and ferocious” murder for weeks, their trial heard.

Jurors were told it was “difficult to fathom” how they could share such “dark thoughts” and carry out such a “disturbing” crime.

Beyond the high-profile cases that attract significant media attention, much of the country’s gang violence, including children killing other children, is largely hidden from the public, says Dr Harding.

He’s seeing “quite extreme things that wouldn’t happen a few years ago”, such as disabled people subjected to levels of cruelty bordering on torture, and young women raped and waterboarded by the people forcing them to sell drugs.

A different Dr Harding, forensic psychiatrist Dr Duncan Harding, works with adults and children who commit serious crimes. He says we really don’t know if killers are getting younger or youth violent crime is increasing because the evidence just isn’t there.

But the reporting of crime and the expansion of social media use means cases which may not have passed the threshold for widespread coverage in the past gain more traction, adding to a perception that it is.

Number of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Number of under-16s convicted of homicide

Percentage of under 16s convicted of homicide
Image:
Percentage of under-16s convicted of homicide

Dehumanisation is spreading’

Even if youth violence isn’t on the rise, the “horrifying” crimes we see reported aren’t acceptable and we have to, as a society, try to understand what’s going on and try to improve things, Dr Duncan Harding adds.

The psychiatrist, who has provided expert evidence in court cases involving homicide, serious violence and terrorism, and has recently released his memoir The Criminal Mind, says the “dehumanisation” seen in gang violence seems to be spreading beyond gangs.

Our divided society is suffering an existential crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic, which is exacerbated by social media, he says, and he also highlights cuts to services for young people due to austerity as a potential factor.

But “stripping away youth clubs isn’t going to in itself lead to someone who’s going to stab or kill someone”, he says, and children don’t always commit violent crimes because of mental illness or difficulties in their lives.

“Obviously, they’re not normal, well-adjusted people, but in my experience, it’s not as straightforward as that either,” he says. “I don’t think that all offenders are victims.”

Shawn Seesahai, who was killed in a machete attack in Wolverhampton. Pic provided by West Midlands Police via Becky Cotterill
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Shawn Seesahai was killed in a machete attack. Pic: West Midlands Police

‘You have to have proper sentencing for knife crime’

The potential solutions are just as complicated – the psychiatrist suggests a public health approach that recognises the “epidemic” of knife crime among vulnerable young children, with schools, health workers and police working together to spot the early warning signs.

But he also supports the wider use of stop-and-search and the government ban on so-called zombie-style knives to try to keep weapons out of children’s hands, and says there need to be consequences at the point where youngsters are carrying knives.

Shawn’s parents urge children to “think about what they’re doing” and not to carry a weapon, but want to see tougher sentences for youngsters like the boys who killed their son.

“You have to have a proper sentencing for knife crime,” says his father Suresh Seesahai.

“Murder is murder. Murder is no coming back. If you murder someone they can’t come back… Life sentence is the best for you.”

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