General election 2024: Rishi Sunak has gone against his reputation for caution and turned out to be a gambler
In 1997, Labour told us “Things Can Only Get Better”, before Tony Blair won a landslide general election victory.
This year, Rishi Sunak appears to have concluded that things are not going to get any better for the Tories if he delays an election until the autumn.
His dash to the polls on 4 July suggests that a prime minister with a reputation for caution and an obsession with spreadsheets is actually a gambler.
To call a general election with his party consistently trailing Labour by 20 points in the Sky News poll of polls at best looks courageous, at worst reckless.
If he can pull it off, however, he will have achieved the Tories’ greatest election win against the odds since John Major won a 21-seat majority in 1992.
Mr Sunak and Mr Major do have some things in common. Both were previously chancellor of the exchequer before becoming PM and both are accused by critics of being – well, frankly – a bit dull.
Sunak calls election: Follow live updates
But in opting for a summer rather than autumn election, the normally cautious Mr Sunak is gambling on a number of fronts: chiefly the economy, migration and his “stop the boats” Rwanda policy.
On the economy, at Prime Minister’s Questions a few hours before Mr Sunak’s shock announcement, he told MPs inflation was “back to normal” and “the plan is working”.
Well, up to a point. Yes, inflation has hit its lowest level in nearly three years. But the fall from 3.2% to 2.3% was not as big as the government had hoped for.
And a June cut in interest rates now looks less likely. And what has happened to Mr Sunak’s pledge to cut income tax from 20p to 19p in the pound by the general election? Gone, presumably.
After his Budget in March, an upbeat Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, told Sky News his 2p cut in national insurance was “absolutely” not the “last throw of the dice” before the election.
With an October or November general election, which Mr Hunt clearly favoured, looking likely, another mini-Budget in September – with that promised income tax cut – was predicted.
But by opting for 4 July, the best the Conservatives can promise now in Mr Sunak’s dash to the polls is tax cuts after the election if he’s back in Downing Street. But we’ve heard all that before.
And on migration, the news is mixed. Nearly 10,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats already this year – a record – and the numbers invariably rise in the better summer weather.
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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are ahead in the polls
So far, the threat of deportation to Rwanda hasn’t proved to be the deterrent the government hoped – but that could change once flights get off the ground next month. That could be a turning point.
Other good news for Mr Sunak in a snap poll is that although Labour are ready for an election, Reform UK are nowhere near ready. That was clearly a factor in the PM opting for an early poll.
The last general election held in July was in 1945, on 5 July, when Labour’s Clement Attlee – who had been deputy PM during the wartime coalition – defeated Winston Churchill with a 147-seat majority.
Margaret Thatcher was a fan of June elections, opting for 9 June in 1983, when she won a 144-seat majority, and 11 June in 1987, when her majority was 102 over Neil Kinnock’s Labour.
As for July, is a general election in high summer a good idea? Scots will complain that 4 July falls during their school holidays, which begin on 28 June and last until 16 August.
And what about the sporting calendar? The big sporting event of this summer is the Euros, in which Gareth Southgate’s England football team are strong contenders. 4 July is also in the first week of Wimbledon.
Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP
The Euros start on 14 June and if England – or Scotland, to be fair, but less likely – progress to the last 16, those games are between 29 June and 2 July and the quarter-finals on 5 and 6 July.
General election coverage competing with football mania? Is Mr Sunak hoping for less election coverage? Or are the Conservatives’ election hopes in the hands of Gareth and the lads?
If history is any guide, footie fan Mr Sunak will hope Harry Kane and the boys powering their way towards the Euros final will create a feelgood factor that helps him win at the polls.
According to political folklore, Harold Wilson blamed England’s World Cup quarter-final defeat by West Germany, four days before the 1970 general election, for his defeat by Edward Heath.
So while Mr Sunak apparently doesn’t believe things can only get better for the Tories between July and the autumn, he will be hoping England’s footballers help things get better for him by 4 July.
Politics
Sunak claims Starmer could ‘put Brexit in peril’ – as Labour warn voters against election complacency
The Conservatives have claimed a Labour government could “put Brexit in peril” in statements and op-eds published on the eighth anniversary of the EU referendum.
Rishi Sunak has made a series of claims about rival Sir Keir Starmer and his intentions if Labour get into government – claiming he “would recommit us to free movement of EU citizens, taking thousands more illegal migrants and binding our businesses again in Brussels red tape”.
“Keir Starmer has never believed we can succeed as a sovereign country and has tried to overturn the result time and time again,” he said. “Now he has committed to years more wrangling the EU and abandoning all our hard-won freedoms like the ability to strike more trade deals and cut more red tape.
“Make no mistake, Brexit would be in peril under Labour.”
General election: Follow the latest updates
Sunak and three other Conservatives have launched Brexit-related attacks on Labour. Pic: PA
Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has claimed Starmer and Labour “have never believed in Britain’s ability to forge its own path”.
“Instead of using the opportunities, Starmer wants to renegotiate the Brexit deal, taking us back to square one of being a rule-taker from Brussels,” she added.
“Only the Conservatives will continue to take the bold action required to build a secure, independent future for our country.”
What have Labour said about Brexit and the EU?
Sir Keir last month told Sky News he plans to seek “a better [Brexit] deal than the one that we’ve got” if elected in next month’s general election.
“I don’t think many people look at that deal and think it’s working very well,” he said of the current trade arrangements. “We were promised an oven-ready deal and we got something that was, frankly, half-baked.”
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‘We need a better Brexit deal’
The Labour manifesto makes one mention of Brexit. It reads: “With Labour, Britain will stay outside of the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work.”
“We will reset the relationship and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbours and allies,” it continues. “That does not mean reopening the divisions of the past.
“There will be no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement.
“Instead, Labour will work to improve the UK’s trade and investment relationship with the EU, by tearing down unnecessary barriers to trade.”
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Meanwhile, Home Secretary James Cleverly has claimed Labour will “open the door to 100,000 illegal migrants” in a piece for the Sunday Telegraph – which a Labour spokesperson has already labelled “desperate lies from a party that has totally failed to control our borders or manage the asylum system”.
And in The Times, Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove has said in a new interview: “I think one of the biggest question marks over Labour is what they would do in terms of relations with the EU because it is on the record that Starmer did everything he could to frustrate a Brexit deal and to secure a second referendum.
“I was in the room with him when we were trying to negotiate an agreement between Labour and the Conservatives under Theresa [May] to secure a Brexit deal.”
Meanwhile, as polls continue to predict Labour are heading for a comfortable majority, their national campaign co-ordinator has reminded the public: “Change will only happen if you vote for it.”
Labour’s national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden wrote in the Observer: “There is a danger that the debate in this election becomes consumed by polls and specifically by the idea that the outcome is somehow pre-determined… No way is this election a done deal.
“The headlines about the clutch of MRP polls disguise a huge level of uncertainty.”
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Unite union boss Sharon Graham says Labour should ‘give Britain a break’ and borrow more to help ‘hurting’ workers
Union boss Sharon Graham has said she does not agree with Labour’s fiscal rules and the party should borrow more to invest.
Speaking to Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips in an interview that will be broadcast in full tomorrow, the Unite general secretary said other countries with growing economies have a larger debt-to-GDP ratio than the UK, “so there is wiggle room”.
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has promised to retain the Tories’ commitment that debt as a proportion of GDP must be on track to fall in five years if Labour win the election on 4 July.
She has ruled out borrowing to fund day-to-day spending, saying her focus will be on reforms to grow the economy.
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But Ms Graham said: “I don’t agree with Rachel Reeves in terms of what has been said about the plans on growth.
“If you look at other countries – in France, their debt to GDP is 112%. In America, where the economy’s growing, it’s 130% debt to GDP. Ours is around about 99%. We have wiggle room. Give Britain a break.”
The union leader said that workers “are literally hurting beyond anything that you could comprehend” due to the cost of living crisis.
She added: “We need the straitjacket off a little bit, get some wiggle room there.
“Borrowing to invest is not the same as other borrowing. It’s borrowing to invest.”
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Reeves: ‘No plans’ for Labour tax increases beyond manifesto
Unite is Labour’s largest union donor but it has refused to endorse the party’s general election manifesto.
Ms Graham has been an outspoken critic of Sir Keir Starmer in the past, previously warning him not to “limp into Number 10” and calling on him to be bolder with his pledges, by nationalising energy, for example.
There has also been a row about his plans to phase out oil and gas licenses in the transition to clean energy, which Unite has called a “ban without a plan” and said threatens job losses.
And more recently Unite accused Labour of watering down its package of workers’ rights, saying the plans had “more holes than Swiss cheese”.
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Ms Graham’s concerns echo those of thinktanks which have said public services need far more investment than what any of the major parties have pledged during the election campaign.
Sir Keir has rejected that argument, insisting there will be no return to austerity despite his party’s commitment to “iron discipline” with the country’s finances.
He has previously defended his U-turn on big spending commitments, like nationalising utilities, by saying the policy became too expensive after the Tories damaged the economy.
In response to other criticisms from Ms Graham, he has insisted he is “not turning off the taps” on oil and gas while arguing his package of workers’ rights will boost wages and raise living standards.
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With less than two weeks to go until polling day, Labour is projected to win a historic landslide after 14 years out of power.
Ms Graham has said she still wants to see a Labour government in Number 10 but thinks the party’s proposals for the country don’t go far enough “after years of Tory neglect”.
The Labour Party has been contacted for comment.
You can watch the full interview with Sharon Graham on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips from 8.30am tomorrow morning on Sky News.
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