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In 1997, Labour told us “Things Can Only Get Better”, before Tony Blair won a landslide general election victory.

This year, Rishi Sunak appears to have concluded that things are not going to get any better for the Tories if he delays an election until the autumn.

His dash to the polls on 4 July suggests that a prime minister with a reputation for caution and an obsession with spreadsheets is actually a gambler.

To call a general election with his party consistently trailing Labour by 20 points in the Sky News poll of polls at best looks courageous, at worst reckless.

If he can pull it off, however, he will have achieved the Tories’ greatest election win against the odds since John Major won a 21-seat majority in 1992.

Mr Sunak and Mr Major do have some things in common. Both were previously chancellor of the exchequer before becoming PM and both are accused by critics of being – well, frankly – a bit dull.

Sunak calls election: Follow live updates

More on General Election 2024

But in opting for a summer rather than autumn election, the normally cautious Mr Sunak is gambling on a number of fronts: chiefly the economy, migration and his “stop the boats” Rwanda policy.

On the economy, at Prime Minister’s Questions a few hours before Mr Sunak’s shock announcement, he told MPs inflation was “back to normal” and “the plan is working”.

Well, up to a point. Yes, inflation has hit its lowest level in nearly three years. But the fall from 3.2% to 2.3% was not as big as the government had hoped for.

And a June cut in interest rates now looks less likely. And what has happened to Mr Sunak’s pledge to cut income tax from 20p to 19p in the pound by the general election? Gone, presumably.

After his Budget in March, an upbeat Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, told Sky News his 2p cut in national insurance was “absolutely” not the “last throw of the dice” before the election.

With an October or November general election, which Mr Hunt clearly favoured, looking likely, another mini-Budget in September – with that promised income tax cut – was predicted.

But by opting for 4 July, the best the Conservatives can promise now in Mr Sunak’s dash to the polls is tax cuts after the election if he’s back in Downing Street. But we’ve heard all that before.

And on migration, the news is mixed. Nearly 10,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats already this year – a record – and the numbers invariably rise in the better summer weather.

Read more about the general election:
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Find your new constituency and how it’s changed
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Starmer
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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are ahead in the polls

So far, the threat of deportation to Rwanda hasn’t proved to be the deterrent the government hoped – but that could change once flights get off the ground next month. That could be a turning point.

Other good news for Mr Sunak in a snap poll is that although Labour are ready for an election, Reform UK are nowhere near ready. That was clearly a factor in the PM opting for an early poll.

The last general election held in July was in 1945, on 5 July, when Labour’s Clement Attlee – who had been deputy PM during the wartime coalition – defeated Winston Churchill with a 147-seat majority.

Margaret Thatcher was a fan of June elections, opting for 9 June in 1983, when she won a 144-seat majority, and 11 June in 1987, when her majority was 102 over Neil Kinnock’s Labour.

As for July, is a general election in high summer a good idea? Scots will complain that 4 July falls during their school holidays, which begin on 28 June and last until 16 August.

And what about the sporting calendar? The big sporting event of this summer is the Euros, in which Gareth Southgate’s England football team are strong contenders. 4 July is also in the first week of Wimbledon.

Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP
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Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP

The Euros start on 14 June and if England – or Scotland, to be fair, but less likely – progress to the last 16, those games are between 29 June and 2 July and the quarter-finals on 5 and 6 July.

General election coverage competing with football mania? Is Mr Sunak hoping for less election coverage? Or are the Conservatives’ election hopes in the hands of Gareth and the lads?

If history is any guide, footie fan Mr Sunak will hope Harry Kane and the boys powering their way towards the Euros final will create a feelgood factor that helps him win at the polls.

According to political folklore, Harold Wilson blamed England’s World Cup quarter-final defeat by West Germany, four days before the 1970 general election, for his defeat by Edward Heath.

So while Mr Sunak apparently doesn’t believe things can only get better for the Tories between July and the autumn, he will be hoping England’s footballers help things get better for him by 4 July.

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Pavel Durov rejects EU pressure to censor Romanian election content

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Pavel Durov rejects EU pressure to censor Romanian election content

Pavel Durov rejects EU pressure to censor Romanian election content

Telegram founder Pavel Durov said he rejected pressure from a European Union (EU) country to censor political content on the social media platform ahead of the May 18 presidential elections in Romania.

According to Durov, a Western European government, which he hinted at with a baguette emoji, approached the platform and requested it censor conservative voices, which he flatly denied. Durov wrote in a May 18 Telegram post:

“You can’t ‘defend democracy’ by destroying democracy. You can’t ‘fight election interference’ by interfering with elections. You either have freedom of speech and fair elections — or you don’t. And the Romanian people deserve both.”

The Telegram founder is an ardent defender of free speech, who is highly regarded in the crypto community for his stances on freedom of expression, autonomy, privacy, and individual liberty.

Pavel Durov rejects EU pressure to censor Romanian election content
Source: Pavel Durov

Related: Pavel Durov says Telegram would exit markets before betraying users

Durov thrust into the spotlight following arrest in France

Pavel Durov was arrested in France in August 2024, sparking widespread condemnation from the crypto community and free speech advocates worldwide, who accused the French government of orchestrating a politically-motivated arrest.

French President Emmanuel Macron denied the arrest was political while claiming the French government was “committed to freedom of expression and communication” in an August 26 X post.

“You can’t keep founders personally liable, and charge them up to 20 years, for not moderating speech, and at the same time claim you are deeply committed to freedom of expression,” Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz wrote in response to Macron.

Shortly after Durov’s arrest, Chris Pavlovski, the CEO of Rumble — a free speech online video platform — announced that he safely departed the European Union after France threatened Rumble.

The CEO also criticized the French government for the arrest of the Telegram co-founder, characterizing it as an attempt to pressure him into censoring speech on the platform.

Durov maintains that Telegram complies with lawful information requests made by law enforcement officials and said that the company has a legal representative in France who handles such requests.

The Telegram co-founder also criticized the French government for bypassing the legal representative and choosing to issue an arrest warrant instead.

Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in

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Post-Brexit EU reset negotiations ‘going to the wire’, says minister

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Post-Brexit EU reset negotiations 'going to the wire', says minister

Negotiations to reset the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU are going “to the wire”, a Cabinet Office minister has said.

“There is no final deal as yet. We are in the very final hours,” the UK’s lead negotiator Nick Thomas-Symonds told Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips.

On the possibility of a youth mobility scheme with the EU, he insisted “nothing is agreed until everything is”.

“We would be open to a smart, controlled youth mobility scheme,” he said. “But I should set out, we will not return to freedom of movement.”

Politics latest: PM outlines ‘benefits’ for UK from closer EU ties

The government is set to host EU leaders in London on Monday.

Put to the minister that the government could not guarantee there will be a deal by tomorrow afternoon, Mr Thomas-Symonds said: “Nobody can guarantee anything when you have two parties in a negotiation.”

But the minister said he remained “confident” a deal could be reached “that makes our borders more secure, is good for jobs and growth, and brings people’s household bills down”.

“That is what is in our national interest and that’s what we will continue to do over these final hours,” he said.

“We have certainly been taking what I have called a ruthlessly pragmatic approach.”

On agricultural products, food and drink, Mr Thomas-Symonds said supermarkets were crying out for a deal because the status quo “isn’t working”, with “lorries stuck for 16 hours and food rotting” and producers and farmers unable to export goods because of the amount of “red tape”.

Asked how much people could expect to save on shopping as a result of the deal the government was hoping to negotiate, the minister was unable to give a figure.

Read more:
What could a UK-EU reset look like?
Starmer’s stance on immigration criticised

On the issue of fishing, asked if a deal would mean allowing French boats into British waters, the minister said the Brexit deal which reduced EU fishing in UK waters by a quarter over five years comes to an end next year.

He said the objectives now included “an overall deal in the interest of our fishers, easier access to markets to sell our fish and looking after our oceans”.

Turning to borders, the minister was asked if people would be able to move through queues at airports faster.

Again, he could not give a definitive answer, but said it was “certainly something we have been pushing with the EU… we want British people who are going on holiday to be able to go and enjoy their holiday, and not be stuck in queues”.

PM opens door to EU youth mobility scheme

A deal granting the UK access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, according to reports – and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has appeared to signal a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement is a “red line”, youth mobility does not come under this.

The European Commission has proposed opening negotiations with the UK on an agreement to facilitate youth mobility between the EU and the UK. The scheme would allow both UK and EU citizens aged between 18 and 30 years old to stay for up to four years in a country of their choosing.

Earlier this month, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told Phillips a youth mobility scheme was not the approach the government wanted to take to bring net migration down.

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Return to customs union ‘remains a red line’

When this was put to him, Mr Thomas-Symonds insisted any deal on a youth mobility scheme with Europe will have to be “smart” and “controlled” and will be “consistent” with the government’s immigration policy.

Asked what the government had got in return for a youth mobility scheme – now there had been a change in approach – the minister said: “It is about an overall balanced package that works for Britain. The government is 100% behind the objective of getting net migration down.”

Phillips said more than a million young people came to the country between 2004 and 2015. “If there isn’t a cap – that’s what we are talking about,” he said.

The minister insisted such a scheme would be “controlled” – but refused to say whether there would be a cap.

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‘It’s going to be a bad deal’

Shadow cabinet office minister Alex Burghart told Phillips an uncapped youth mobility scheme with the EU would lead to “much higher immigration”, adding: “It sounds very much as though it’s going to be a bad deal.”

Asked if the Conservatives would scrap any EU deal, he said: “It depends what the deal is, Trevor. And we still, even at this late stage, we don’t know.

“The government can’t tell us whether everyone will be able to come. They can’t tell us how old the young person is. They can’t tell us what benefits they would get.

“So I think when people hear about a youth mobility scheme, they think about an 18-year-old coming over working at a bar. But actually we may well be looking at a scheme which allows 30-year-olds to come over and have access to the NHS on day one, to claim benefits on day one, to bring their extended families.”

He added: “So there are obviously very considerable disadvantages to the UK if this deal is done in the wrong way.”

Jose Manuel Barroso, former EU Commission president, told Phillips it “makes sense” for a stronger relationship to exist between the European Union and the UK, adding: “We are stronger together.”

He said he understood fishing and youth mobility are the key sticking points for a UK-EU deal.

“Frankly, what is at stake… is much more important than those specific issues,” he said.

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Retired artist loses $2M in crypto to Coinbase impersonator

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Retired artist loses M in crypto to Coinbase impersonator

Retired artist loses M in crypto to Coinbase impersonator

Retired artist Ed Suman lost over $2 million in cryptocurrency earlier this year after falling victim to a scam involving someone posing as a Coinbase support representative.

Suman, 67, spent nearly two decades as a fabricator in the art world, helping build high-profile works such as Jeff Koons’ Balloon Dog sculptures, according to a May 17 report by Bloomberg.

After retiring, he turned to cryptocurrency investing, eventually accumulating 17.5 Bitcoin (BTC) and 225 Ether (ETH) — a portfolio that comprised most of his retirement savings.

He stored the funds in a Trezor Model One, a hardware wallet commonly used by crypto holders to avoid the risks of exchange hacks. But in March, Suman received a text message appearing to be from Coinbase, warning him of unauthorized account access.

After responding, he got a phone call from a man identifying himself as a Coinbase security staffer named Brett Miller. The caller appeared knowledgeable, correctly stating that Suman’s funds were stored in a hardware wallet.

He then convinced Suman that his wallet could still be vulnerable and walked him through a “security procedure” that involved entering his seed phrase into a website mimicking Coinbase’s interface.

Nine days later, a second caller claiming to be from Coinbase repeated the process. By the end of that call, all of Suman’s crypto holdings were gone.

Retired artist loses $2M in crypto to Coinbase impersonator
Crypto scammers impersonate Coinbase support. Source: NanoBaiter

Related: Bitcoin breaks out while Coinbase breaks down: Finance Redefined

Coinbase suffers major data breach

The scam followed a data breach at Coinbase disclosed this week, in which attackers bribed customer support staff in India to access sensitive user information.

Stolen data included customer names, account balances, and transaction histories. Coinbase confirmed the breach impacted roughly 1% of its monthly transacting users.

Among those affected was venture capitalist Roelof Botha, managing partner at Sequoia Capital. There is no indication that his funds were accessed, and Botha declined to comment.

Coinbase’s chief security officer, Philip Martin, reportedly said the contracted customer service agents at the center of the controversy were based in India and had been fired following the breach.

The exchange has also said it plans to pay between $180 million and $400 million in remediation and reimbursement to affected users.

Magazine: Arthur Hayes $1M Bitcoin tip, altcoins’ powerful rally’ looms: Hodler’s Digest, May 11 – 17

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