Connect with us

Published

on

In 1997, Labour told us “Things Can Only Get Better”, before Tony Blair won a landslide general election victory.

This year, Rishi Sunak appears to have concluded that things are not going to get any better for the Tories if he delays an election until the autumn.

His dash to the polls on 4 July suggests that a prime minister with a reputation for caution and an obsession with spreadsheets is actually a gambler.

To call a general election with his party consistently trailing Labour by 20 points in the Sky News poll of polls at best looks courageous, at worst reckless.

If he can pull it off, however, he will have achieved the Tories’ greatest election win against the odds since John Major won a 21-seat majority in 1992.

Mr Sunak and Mr Major do have some things in common. Both were previously chancellor of the exchequer before becoming PM and both are accused by critics of being – well, frankly – a bit dull.

Sunak calls election: Follow live updates

More on General Election 2024

But in opting for a summer rather than autumn election, the normally cautious Mr Sunak is gambling on a number of fronts: chiefly the economy, migration and his “stop the boats” Rwanda policy.

On the economy, at Prime Minister’s Questions a few hours before Mr Sunak’s shock announcement, he told MPs inflation was “back to normal” and “the plan is working”.

Well, up to a point. Yes, inflation has hit its lowest level in nearly three years. But the fall from 3.2% to 2.3% was not as big as the government had hoped for.

And a June cut in interest rates now looks less likely. And what has happened to Mr Sunak’s pledge to cut income tax from 20p to 19p in the pound by the general election? Gone, presumably.

After his Budget in March, an upbeat Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, told Sky News his 2p cut in national insurance was “absolutely” not the “last throw of the dice” before the election.

With an October or November general election, which Mr Hunt clearly favoured, looking likely, another mini-Budget in September – with that promised income tax cut – was predicted.

But by opting for 4 July, the best the Conservatives can promise now in Mr Sunak’s dash to the polls is tax cuts after the election if he’s back in Downing Street. But we’ve heard all that before.

And on migration, the news is mixed. Nearly 10,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats already this year – a record – and the numbers invariably rise in the better summer weather.

Read more about the general election:
What happens now an election has been called?
Find your new constituency and how it’s changed
How boundary changes make Starmer’s job harder
The MPs who are standing down

Starmer
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party are ahead in the polls

So far, the threat of deportation to Rwanda hasn’t proved to be the deterrent the government hoped – but that could change once flights get off the ground next month. That could be a turning point.

Other good news for Mr Sunak in a snap poll is that although Labour are ready for an election, Reform UK are nowhere near ready. That was clearly a factor in the PM opting for an early poll.

The last general election held in July was in 1945, on 5 July, when Labour’s Clement Attlee – who had been deputy PM during the wartime coalition – defeated Winston Churchill with a 147-seat majority.

Margaret Thatcher was a fan of June elections, opting for 9 June in 1983, when she won a 144-seat majority, and 11 June in 1987, when her majority was 102 over Neil Kinnock’s Labour.

As for July, is a general election in high summer a good idea? Scots will complain that 4 July falls during their school holidays, which begin on 28 June and last until 16 August.

And what about the sporting calendar? The big sporting event of this summer is the Euros, in which Gareth Southgate’s England football team are strong contenders. 4 July is also in the first week of Wimbledon.

Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP
Image:
Clement Attlee after winning the last election that was held in July. Pic: AP

The Euros start on 14 June and if England – or Scotland, to be fair, but less likely – progress to the last 16, those games are between 29 June and 2 July and the quarter-finals on 5 and 6 July.

General election coverage competing with football mania? Is Mr Sunak hoping for less election coverage? Or are the Conservatives’ election hopes in the hands of Gareth and the lads?

If history is any guide, footie fan Mr Sunak will hope Harry Kane and the boys powering their way towards the Euros final will create a feelgood factor that helps him win at the polls.

According to political folklore, Harold Wilson blamed England’s World Cup quarter-final defeat by West Germany, four days before the 1970 general election, for his defeat by Edward Heath.

So while Mr Sunak apparently doesn’t believe things can only get better for the Tories between July and the autumn, he will be hoping England’s footballers help things get better for him by 4 July.

Continue Reading

Politics

Child poverty strategy unveiled – but not everyone’s happy

Published

on

By

Starmer wants to lift half a million children out of poverty - but does his plan go far enough?

A new long-awaited child poverty strategy is promising to lift half a million children out of poverty by the end of this parliament – but critics have branded it unambitious. 

The headline announcement in the government’s plan is the pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap, announced in Rachel Reeves’s budget last week.

It also includes:

• Providing upfront childcare support for parents on universal credit returning to work
• An £8m fund to end the placement of families in bed and breakfasts beyond a six-week limit
• Reforms to cut the cost of baby formula
• A new legal duty on councils to notify schools, health visitors, and GPs when a child is placed in temporary accommodation

Many of the measures have previously been announced.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Two-child cap ‘a real victory for the left’

The government also pointed to its plan in the budget to cut energy bills by £150 a year, and its previously promised £950m boost to a local authority housing fund, which it says will deliver 5,000 high-quality homes for better temporary accommodation.

Downing Street said the strategy would lift 550,000 children out of poverty by 2030, saying that would be the biggest reduction in a single parliament since records began.

More on Poverty

But charities had been hoping for a 10-year strategy and argue the plan lacks ambition.

A record 4.5 million children (about 31%) are living in poverty in the UK – 900,000 more since 2010/11, according to government figures.

Phillip Anderson, the Strategic Director for External Affairs at the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), told Sky News: “Abolishing the two-child limit is a hell of a centre piece, but beyond that it’s mainly a summary of previously announced policies and commitments.

“The really big thing for me is it misses the opportunity to talk about the longer term. It was supposed to be a 10-year strategy, we wanted to see real ambition and ideally legally binding targets for reducing poverty.

“The government itself says there will still be around four million children living in poverty after these measures and the strategy has very little to say to them.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘A budget for benefits street’

‘Budget for benefits street’ row

The biggest measure in the strategy is the plan to lift the two-child benefit cap from April. This is estimated to lift 450,000 children out of poverty by 2030, at a cost of £3bn.

The government has long been under pressure from backbench Labour MPs to scrap the cap, with most experts arguing that it is the quickest, most cost-effective way to drive-down poverty this parliament.

The cap, introduced by Conservative chancellor George Osborne in 2017, means parents can only claim universal credit or tax credits for their first two children. It meant the average affected household losing £4,300 per year, the Institute for Fiscal Studies calculated in 2024.

The government argues that a failure to tackle child poverty holds back the economy, and young people at school, cutting their employment and earning prospects in later life.

However, the Conservatives argue parents on benefits should have to make the same financial choices about children as everyone else.

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “Work is the best way out poverty but since this government took office, unemployment has risen every single month and this budget for Benefits Street will only make the situation worse. “

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

OBR leak: This has happened before

‘Bring back Sure Start’

Lord Bird, a crossbench peer who founded the Big Issue and grew up in poverty, said while he supported the lifting of the cap there needed to be “more joined up thinking” across government for a longer-term strategy.

He has been pushing for the creation of a government ministry of “poverty prevention and cure”, and for legally binding targets on child poverty.

“You have to be able to measure yourself, you can’t have the government marking its own homework,” he told Sky News.

Lord Bird also said he was a “great believer” in resurrecting Sure Start centres and expanding them beyond early years.

The New Labour programme offered support services for pre-school children and their parents and is widely seen to have improved health and educational outcomes. By its peak in 2009-2010 there were 3,600 centres – the majority of which closed following cuts by the subsequent Conservative government.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Lord Bird on the ‘great distraction’ from child poverty

PM to meet families

Sir Keir Starmer’s government have since announced 1,000 Best Start Family Hubs – but many Labour MPs feel this announcement went under the radar and ministers missed a trick in not calling them “Sure Starts” as it is a name people are familiar with.

The prime minister is expected to meet families and children in Wales on Friday, alongside the Welsh First Minister, to make the case for his strategy and meet those he hopes will benefit from it.

Several other charities have urged ministers to go further. Both Crisis and Shelter called for the government to unfreeze housing benefit and build more social rent homes, while the Children’s Commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, said that “if we are to end child poverty – not just reduce it” measures like free bus travel for school-age children would be needed.

The strategy comes after the government set up a child poverty taskforce in July 2024, which was initially due to report back in May. The taskforce’s findings have not yet been published – only the government’s response.

Sir Keir said: “Too many children are growing up in poverty, held back from getting on in life, and too many families are struggling without the basics: a secure home, warm meals and the support they need to make ends meet.

“I will not stand by and watch that happen, because the cost of doing nothing is too high for children, for families and for Britain.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Did Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves mislead us?

Published

on

By

Did Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves mislead us?

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

The chancellor is being accused of “lying” over what she knew and when ahead of her budget – so did Rachel Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer actually mislead the public?

Beth walks us through a detailed timeline of the OBR forecasts, the so-called “black hole”, and why journalists now feel they were given only half the story.

Ruth and Harriet weigh in on political honesty, the dangers of selective briefing, and why trust between the government, the media and the public is fraying fast.

Plus, former Number 10 director of communications Matthew Doyle joins the trio to discuss Labour’s early months in power, the turbulence around political messaging, and how governments lose (and can rebuild) narrative control.

Send us your messages and Christmas-themed questions on WhatsApp at 07934 200 444 or email electoraldysfunction@sky.uk.

And if you didn’t know, you can also watch Beth, Harriet and Ruth on YouTube.

St. James’s Place sponsors Electoral Dysfunction on Sky News, learn more here.

Continue Reading

Politics

Ex-Signature Bank execs launch blockchain-powered bank N3XT

Published

on

By

Ex-Signature Bank execs launch blockchain-powered bank N3XT

A group of former executives from the collapsed crypto-friendly Signature Bank has launched a new blockchain-based, state-chartered bank called N3XT, with the goal of enabling instant 24-hour payments.

N3XT said on Thursday that it aims to settle payments instantly at any time using a private blockchain and offers programmable payments through smart contracts. The company added that its systems have been designed for interoperability with stablecoins, utility tokens, and other digital assets.

Signature Bank founder ​​Scott Shay founded N3XT, which will operate under a Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution (SPDI) charter and will not offer lending services.

Signature Bank was one of three crypto-friendly banks, along with Silicon Valley Bank and  Silvergate Bank, that collapsed in the 2023 US banking crisis due to a bank run and ties to the then-rapidly falling crypto market.