Stanley Cup playoffs conference finals preview: Goalie confidence, key players, storylines
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Sixteen NHL teams qualified for the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. But with two rounds complete, the field is down to the final four competitors.
Each team brings a unique set of narratives to the conference finals round — both on and off the ice.
Here’s everything you need to know about the New York Rangers, Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers.
How they got here: Defeated Lightning 4-1, Bruins 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
Sergei Bobrovsky has improved throughout the playoffs. That’s excellent news for Florida as it faces perhaps its toughest offensive challenge yet in the high-flying, high-scoring New York Rangers.
The Panthers’ netminder is a solid 8-3 in the postseason, with a .902 save percentage and 2.37 goals-against average. Bobrovsky was fine in the first round but hit a real stride in the second round. The Bruins didn’t test Bobrovsky often, and he had to be sharp when they did; for the most part, he has come through when Florida has needed him.
Bobrovsky’s 22-save performance in Game 6 to close out Boston was some of his finest work, which should have him feeling in tip-top shape ahead of this conference finals bout.
What we’ve learned about the Panthers so far
Florida is impressively multifaceted, and there isn’t one area where the Panthers are truly deficient. They’ve averaged the most goals per game among Eastern Conference playoff teams (3.55), they are stingy defensively (allowing 2.45 goals per game and only 24.1 shots on net) and they have solid special teams (with a 22% power play and 86.1% penalty kill).
Most importantly, though, Florida is balanced. The Panthers’ stars have contributed as expected, with Carter Verhaeghe (six goals and 11 points), Matthew Tkachuk (four goals and 14 points) and Aleksander Barkov (five goals and 13 points) excelling. Florida’s depth skaters have made their mark, from Evan Rodrigues (three goals and six points) to Anton Lundell (two goals and nine points). The Panthers have benefitted from timely scoring from the back end, too — Gustav Forsling netting the game-winner in Game 6 against Boston was especially notable — and Brandon Montour (three goals and eight points) has been superb.
The Panthers have enviable depth and an all-around game on which to lean.
Players who will be key to this series
New York is the Eastern Conference’s second-highest-scoring offense in the postseason (averaging 3.50 goals per game), right behind Florida, so Bobrovsky being at his best is critical for the Panthers. Bobrovsky wasn’t overly taxed by Boston (a difficulty because most goalies prefer a busier workload), and the Rangers project to do the exact opposite by peppering the Panthers’ goalie at 5-on-5 and with their excellent power play.
Matching New York’s potential attack falls on the Panthers’ top-six skaters, but Tkachuk and Sam Bennett should be particularly engaged with their grittiness to get under the Rangers’ skin. Florida doesn’t want to be in a track meet opposite a lineup like New York’s, and setting a tone with some physicality and pressure — while holding the Rangers to the outside and away from those juicy rush chances — is an ideal recipe for Florida to follow. New York isn’t throwing many hits in the postseason (13th overall in that category) so the Panthers can use their feistier forwards to their advantage.
Player who needs to step up
Make no mistake, Sam Reinhart has been solid in the playoffs, with five goals and nine points through 11 games. But this is a series where he can shine. Reinhart had a tremendous regular season, scoring 57 goals and 94 points (including four goals in the regular-season series against New York). He just hasn’t been lighting up the scoresheet as often in the playoffs, with only two goals in six games against Boston (and one four-assist performance).
It just feels like there’s more Reinhart can give, particularly on special teams, where he has just two points. The margins for victory become smaller the deeper a team goes, and Reinhart has the ability to break things open for Florida. The Rangers have been heavily star-driven in the playoffs, and it’s how they’ve arrived in the conference finals. Florida’s depth has been a significant asset, but at this juncture, a true standout like Reinhart can make the series-defining difference.
Can Florida’s power play match New York’s?
The Panthers didn’t have consistent success against Boston’s terrific penalty kill (minus a four-goal outburst with the man advantage in Game 3). Florida was 0-for-7 with the extra man in Games 5 and 6, two contests decided by a single goal. Meanwhile, New York’s power play has been a decisive factor in its success throughout the playoffs, and it has gotten the Rangers through some tightly contested battles.
Florida can’t afford to let many power-play opportunities slip away.That won’t be easy, given the Rangers’ penalty kill is excellent at 89.5%. There’s little doubt Florida has the talent to make more noise on the man advantage, with seven players scoring there so far — it’s just a matter of breaking through New York’s defenses.
If the Panthers can put some doubt in the Rangers on that front early in the series, it would be a confidence-booster. If Florida can’t, there will be nail-biting outcomes in the future.
How they got here: Defeated Capitals 4-0, Hurricanes 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 9.5/10
Igor Shesterkin is arguably New York’s postseason MVP. The Rangers’ netminder has the playoff field’s best record (8-2), a .923 SV% and a 2.40 GAA. At almost no point has New York had to make up for errors on his end.
Shesterkin has been an absolute difference-maker for the Rangers — that brilliant stop on Andrei Svechnikov in the waning minutes of Game 6 of their second-round series against Carolina was a jaw-dropper — and he has been markedly consistent, with a .910 or better SV% in 80% of the Rangers’ postseason games.
It’s no exaggeration to say the Rangers’ hopes of reaching a Stanley Cup Final — and winning it all — hinge heavily on Shesterkin continuing to be the Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender he has been since the first round began.
What we’ve learned about the Rangers so far
The Rangers haven’t strayed much from what made them this season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners. New York boasts an elite power play (at 31.4%) that almost overcompensates for their average 5-on-5 scoring (they have just 20 even-strength goals through 10 postseason games).
New York’s overall success has come through its top talents, from Shesterkin’s goaltending to elite performances from Mika Zibanejad (three goals and 14 points), Vincent Trocheck (six goals and 14 points) and Chris Kreider (seven goals and 10 points). The Rangers haven’t relied on their depth to make a difference, and while that hasn’t hurt them (much) to date, it is something they could look to improve on against Florida.
Defensively, New York doesn’t make it easy on Shesterkin — the Rangers allow 32.5 shots on net per game — but they shouldn’t take their goaltending for granted. The Panthers can quickly make them pay for any sloppiness.
Players who will be key to this series
Shesterkin is essential to New York’s hopes of getting past Florida. Yes, the Panthers have also leaned on their goaltending at times, but Shesterkin is an intimidating presence in the crease and provides the confidence New York needs to play the back-and-forth style that leads to those open scoring opportunities (but also makes the Rangers vulnerable defensively).
Beyond Shesterkin, this is a series where Trocheck can continue to have a major impact. He has been the Rangers’ most productive skater on the power play (with eight points), and they will continue to rely on that potent man-advantage unit to carry them through another round. Trocheck has also been one of New York’s stronger contributors at 5-on-5; helping bolster the Rangers there will be critical, especially when the series inevitably gets tighter.
Player who needs to step up
Artemi Panarin cooled off in the second round after a dominant start to the postseason. There’s no time like the present for Panarin to turn those jets back on (so to speak).
Panarin has zero goals and two assists in New York’s past three games, but he also leads the Rangers overall in playoff game-winners (four). His 11 total points show he is more than capable of avenging his past postseason demons (just two assists in seven games last year) by keeping his incredible regular-season showing (49 goals and 120 points) at the forefront of this playoff push.
While the second round saw Panarin in a lull of sorts, he can make up for lost time in this series. Florida’s lineup is packed with scoring potential, and New York’s ability to match it will determine who advances. Panarin should be ready to answer that bell.
Can New York’s defense hold up — and lock down?
Fun fact: Carolina outshot the Rangers in all six of their second-round games. Washington outshot New York in two of their four first-round games. Despite a solid group of blueliners, New York has been channeling some “fake it till you make it” energy on the back end (and Shesterkin playing lights-out is a big reason that hasn’t ruined the Rangers’ playoff run).
Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren have faced New York’s hardest postseason matchups while being outshot 72-53 but not outscored (the Rangers have a goal edge of 4-3) at even strength. But that’s a delicate tightrope to walk; New York could be one bad game from Shesterkin away from losing their handle on a series.
Improving defensively falls not only on the Rangers’ blueliners but their forwards as well. Run-and-gun might suffice in the regular season, and having a potent power play is great. Full-team buy-in is better, and that’s the question mark for New York heading into the conference finals. Can the Rangers do the little things well enough that the big ones fall more easily into place?
How they got here: Defeated Golden Knights 4-3, Avalanche 4-2
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 10/10
Jake Oettinger has done more than just help the Stars reach the conference finals. He’s presenting one of the stronger Conn Smythe cases this postseason.
Back in the 2022 playoffs, the Stars were ousted in the first round, but Oettinger was arguably the biggest reason they pushed the series to seven games. His performances created the belief that if the Stars could somehow bolster their roster, they might be able to pose a serious problem. That time has arrived, and Oettinger has played a significant role.
What we’ve learned about the Stars so far
They might be the most adaptable team in this year’s playoffs. Face the defending Stanley Cup champs in the first round? Spot them a 2-0 series lead, playing into a narrative in which Dallas had lost nine of 11 meetings? No problem. Advance to the second round and build a three-goal lead in Game 1, only to give up four unanswered in overtime? Yeah, the Stars found a way to overcome that too.
The Stars have faced the two most recent Cup champions — whose rosters featured All-Stars such as Jack Eichel, Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Alex Pietrangelo — and still won. Now they’re going against Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. If they need to take on some of the NHL’s best players to prove they are the NHL’s best team, so be it.
Player who will be key to this series
Miro Heiskanen is averaging more than 28 minutes per game, with some of his performances going longer than the run time of a sitcom. He leads his team in points. He’s at the controls of a power play that is scoring nearly 30% of the time. The years of trust he has gained allow him to be matched up against some of the NHL’s best players on a nightly basis. And he is only 24.
Ever since Heiskanen debuted in the 2018-19 season, the discussion centered on how high his ceiling would be if he ever found a level of offensive consistency that could come anywhere close to matching what he does on the defensive end. What he did in the 2022-23 season provided a glimpse. What he has done during the 2024 playoffs could land the Stars a Stanley Cup.
Player who needs to step up
Joe Pavelski ranks 37th in career playoff points, and he has 74 goals in 195 postseason contests. That’s what makes the fact that he has one goal and three points in 13 games this year so jarring.
Pavelski plays the sort of game that’s built to succeed, in that he relies on his intelligence and positioning to either get goals or be in a place that allows his teammates to get goals. His defensive contributions have played a part in why he’s averaging more than 18 minutes per game. But if Pavelski can start generating more on the scoresheet, it would make an already deep Stars attack even deeper.
Will it be five the hard way or the joy of six for the Stars on the back end?
The success of their five-player defensive structure — coupled with Oettinger being in goal — has allowed goal prevention to be a key facet of the Stars’ success. But as they get further along, can they continue to largely play five defensemen instead of six?
Prior to Game 6 against the Avalanche, the Stars relied heavily on Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, Chris Tanev and Heiskanen, while Nils Lundkvist averaged 4:27 in ice time in 12 games. The Stars turned to veteran Alex Petrovic, who logged more than 16 minutes in their double-overtime win. Even if part of Petrovic’s workload increased because of overtime, it’s still more ice time than what Lundkvist has received at any point in these playoffs. The last time Lundkvist received more than 16 minutes in a single game came back in January.
The Oilers will certainly make the Stars work on defense. Dallas’ blue-line rotation will be a critical strategic point to watch as the series gets rolling.
How they got here: Defeated Kings 4-1, Canucks 4-3
Playoff takeaways
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
For every setback, there has been a comeback. That has been the narrative surrounding Stuart Skinner throughout his professional career. It also describes how he managed to come back from being pulled in Game 3 of the Oilers’ second-round series and benched in Games 4 and 5 before returning to help the Oilers close out the series.
What Skinner provided in those final two games was a goaltender who stopped shots within an Oilers defensive framework that takes away scoring chances and high-danger shots, whether it’s in 5-on-5 sequences or in short-handed situations. If the Oilers can get that version of Skinner against the Stars, it could see them take the next step toward reaching their ultimate destination.
What we’ve learned about the Oilers so far
Goal prevention is just as much a priority for the Oilers as goal creation. One of the looming questions facing the Oilers over the past few years was whether they could find consistency within their defensive structure. It’s a question they have continually answered since they moved on from Jay Woodcroft and hired Kris Knoblauch as head coach, which led to the addition of Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey to the Oilers’ coaching staff. The arrival of Knoblauch and Coffey has since turned the Oilers into a team that can both create and solve problems in either end of the ice.
Maybe the strongest example of that progress has come during the playoffs. In the first round, the Kings went from scoring nine goals in the first two games to scoring a total of four goals over the next three. The same applies to the Canucks, who went from scoring 11 goals in the first three games to eight goals for the final four games of the series.
Player who will be key to this series
There are several reasons to highlight Leon Draisaitl when it comes to why this could be the Oilers’ year to win the Cup. One of them came in the final minutes of Game 7, when Draisaitl was one of the Oilers’ most active players on the defensive end. His investment into being aggressive on the forecheck played a part in Canucks’ struggles to get settled in an attempt to find a game-tying goal. Draisaitl’s stick was constantly moving to disrupt passes or provide some sort of additional obstacle.
So much can be said about his defensive abilities before getting to the fact that he’s one of the game’s most dangerous players on the offensive end — he leads all playoff scorers, with 24 points in 12 games — reinforcing why he might be the most important Oiler, if not the most important player in this series.
Player who needs to step up
Dylan Holloway has used the past few games to show that he is making an impact. He started Game 7 on the second line and has recorded a goal and two points over his past two games.
Receiving those sorts of contributions from Holloway is key for a couple reasons. It stems from the expectation of being a first-round pick in an organization that has found success with others taken in the opening round. The Oilers must also find ways to get as much secondary and tertiary offense as possible. In a big series (and potentially a Stanley Cup Final), Holloway can take positive career strides as the Oilers make a push to stay among the top Cup contenders.
What happens if Connor McDavid starts consistently scoring again?
It’s not like McDavid hasn’t been busy. He has created goals for others while anchoring the Oilers’ top line and also driving a power-play unit that at one point was converting at a rate of 50% this postseason. This is what makes McDavid a perpetual threat who requires everyone’s attention.
But the fact that he’s scored only two goals through 12 postseason games raises two questions: What does it say that the Oilers can get this far without needing McDavid to score in bunches? And how terrifying could the Oilers be if McDavid starts consistently scoring again and continues to create for those around him?
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
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