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The news that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, its lowest level for nearly three years, seems to be one of the reasons the PM called an election for 4 July.

Mr Sunak declared at his first stump speech: “The economy has turned a corner… our plan is working”.

The latest ‘economic optimism index’ for May from pollsters Ipsos suggests that many voters agree with him.

Some 33% of people say the economy will improve in the next 12 months – up 12 points from April (while some 37% say it will worsen).

The national economic mood appears to be on the rise and at its highest point since the summer of 2021 – around the time Britain exited lockdown and celebrated ‘Freedom Day’.

Will economic optimism lead to electoral success?

Historically, the link between voters’ economic expectations and election outcomes is mixed.

In 1983, growing economic optimism saw the Thatcher government secure a four-point swing towards it, against a divided opposition.

But in 2010, Gordon Brown’s government was voted out of office – suffering a swing of five against it – despite a similar proportion of the electorate thinking that the economy was improving.

And in 1997, Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide on a 10-point swing, even though voters were broadly positive about the direction of the economy.

The net economic optimism rating enjoyed by John Major back then (+13) was significantly better than that for Rishi Sunak at the moment (-4).

The last election is a notable historical anomaly, with Boris Johnson securing a swing of 4.6 points despite a prevailing mood of economic pessimism (-29).

But is the improving economic mood translating into greater support for the government?

At the moment, support for the Conservatives in the polls is static – around 23.2% in the Sky News poll tracker, nearly 21 points behind Labour.

The mood for change

So, why isn’t this upswing in economic optimism delivering the electoral rewards that one might expect?

Simply, the electorate has turned against the government and is in the mood for change.

In the latest polling by Ipsos some 66% of people disagreed that it deserved to be re-elected, while 73% said it was ‘time for a change’.

Ahead of the 1979 election, Labour PM Jim Callaghan famously wrote in his diaries, “there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The outcome of the 2024 election will hinge upon whether there has indeed been a sea-change in the mood of the electorate and whether signs that the economy has turned a corner will do little to change its mind.

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

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Hovis and Kingsmill-owners in talks about historic bread merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill, two of Britain’s leading bread producers, are in talks about a historic merger amid a decades-long decline in the sale of supermarket loaves.

Sky News has learnt that Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, and Hovis, which is owned by investment firm Endless, have been involved in prolonged discussions about a combination of the two businesses.

City sources said this weekend that the talks were ongoing, but that there was no certainty that a deal would be finalised.

Bankers are said to be working with both sides on the talks about a transaction.

A deal could be structured as an acquisition of Hovis by ABF, according to analysts, although details about the mechanics of a merger or the valuations attached to the two businesses were unclear this weekend.

ABF is also said to be exploring other options for the future of Allied Bakeries which do not include a deal with Hovis.

If completed, a merger would unite two of Britain’s best-known ambient food brands, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning strength of man.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair the bread industry’s financial health in recent decades.

The impact of the war in Ukraine on wheat and flour prices has been among the factors increasing inflationary pressures on bread producers, according to the most recent set of accounts for Hovis filed at Companies House last year.

The overall UK bakery market is said to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

The principal obstacle facing a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis would reside in its consequences for competition in the UK market.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector in the UK, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group a larger share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain larger because of the breadth of its product range.

Nevertheless, reducing the number of major supermarket bread suppliers from three to two would be a test of the Competition and Markets Authority’s approach to such industry-reshaping mergers at a time when the watchdog is under intense government scrutiny.

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In January, the government removed the CMA chairman, Marcus Bokkerink, as part of a push to reorient Britain’s economic regulators around growth-focused objectives.

An industry insider suggested that a joint venture involving the distribution networks of Hovis and Kingsmill was a possible, although less likely, alternative to a full-blown merger of the companies.

They added that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of cost savings from such a tie-up.

In its interim results announcement this week, ABF said the performance of Allied Bakeries had continued to struggle.

“Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market,” it said.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we expect to provide an update in [the second half of] 2025.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF described the losses at Allied as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Allied also owns Speedibake, an own-label bread manufacturer.

Hovis has been owned by Endless, a prominent investor in British businesses, since 2020, having previously been owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites and its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF and Endless both declined to comment.

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Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

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Struggling Aston Martin steers into fresh pay controversy

Aston Martin is steering a path towards a twin-pronged pay row with shareholders as it grapples with the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on car manufacturers.

Sky News can reveal that the influential proxy voting adviser ISS is urging investors to vote against both of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings’ remuneration votes at next week’s annual general meeting.

The pay policy vote, which is binding on the company, has attracted opposition from ISS because it proposes significant increases to potential bonus awards to Adrian Hallmark, the company’s new chief executive.

“Concerns are raised regarding the increased bonus maximums, which are built upon competitively[1]positioned salary levels and do not appear appropriate given the company’s recent performance,” ISS said in a report to clients.

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Aston Martin is also facing a meaningful vote against its pay report for last year – which is on an advisory basis only – because of the salaries awarded to Mr Hallmark and other executive directors.

The company’s shares have nearly halved in the last year, and it now has a market value of little more than £660m.

Despite the ISS recommendation, Aston Martin will win the vote by virtue of chairman Lawrence Stroll’s 33% shareholding.

The luxury car manufacturer has had a torrid time as a public company and now faces the headwinds of President Trump’s tariffs blitz.

This week it said it would limit exports to the US to offset the impact of the policy.

Aston Martin did not respond to a request for comment ahead of next Wednesday’s AGM.

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Financial wellbeing platform Mintago lands £6m funding boost

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Financial wellbeing platform Mintago lands £6m funding boost

A financial wellbeing platform which counts the alcohol-free beer producer Lucky Saint among its clients has landed a £6m funding injection from a syndicate of well-known investors.

Sky News understands that Mintago, which was founded in 2019, will announce in the coming days that Guinness Ventures has jointly led the Series A round alongside Seed X Liechtenstein and Social Impact Enterprises.

Mintago, which also counts car rental firm Avis and Northumbrian Police among its customers, aims to help employees save and manage their money more effectively.

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A number of the start-up’s current investors, Love Ventures and Truesight Ventures, are also understood to have reinvested as part of the fundraising.

MINTAGO
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The company, which counts Lucky Saint and Avis among its users, has finalised a Series A funding round

The company was set up by Chieu Cao and Daniel Conti, and claims to offer more salary sacrifice schemes than any other UK provider.

It also provides independent financial advice, a service for finding lost pension pots, retail discounts and GP services.

“We realised that organisations are crying out for the same help we provide their staff,” Mr Conti said.

“The benefits of providing that support impact everyone.

“When a company improves their salary sacrifice benefits engagement, they can save thousands in National Insurance Contributions, but their employees save too, easing the strain on their finances.”

The new capital will be used to develop additional products using artificial intelligence, according to the company.

“Mintago is enabling its customers to become truly people-centric organisations by giving them the tools to support their employees’ financial wellbeing,” Mathias Jaeggi, a partner at Seed X Liechtenstein, said.

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