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The news that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, its lowest level for nearly three years, seems to be one of the reasons the PM called an election for 4 July.

Mr Sunak declared at his first stump speech: “The economy has turned a corner… our plan is working”.

The latest ‘economic optimism index’ for May from pollsters Ipsos suggests that many voters agree with him.

Some 33% of people say the economy will improve in the next 12 months – up 12 points from April (while some 37% say it will worsen).

The national economic mood appears to be on the rise and at its highest point since the summer of 2021 – around the time Britain exited lockdown and celebrated ‘Freedom Day’.

Will economic optimism lead to electoral success?

Historically, the link between voters’ economic expectations and election outcomes is mixed.

In 1983, growing economic optimism saw the Thatcher government secure a four-point swing towards it, against a divided opposition.

But in 2010, Gordon Brown’s government was voted out of office – suffering a swing of five against it – despite a similar proportion of the electorate thinking that the economy was improving.

And in 1997, Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide on a 10-point swing, even though voters were broadly positive about the direction of the economy.

The net economic optimism rating enjoyed by John Major back then (+13) was significantly better than that for Rishi Sunak at the moment (-4).

The last election is a notable historical anomaly, with Boris Johnson securing a swing of 4.6 points despite a prevailing mood of economic pessimism (-29).

But is the improving economic mood translating into greater support for the government?

At the moment, support for the Conservatives in the polls is static – around 23.2% in the Sky News poll tracker, nearly 21 points behind Labour.

The mood for change

So, why isn’t this upswing in economic optimism delivering the electoral rewards that one might expect?

Simply, the electorate has turned against the government and is in the mood for change.

In the latest polling by Ipsos some 66% of people disagreed that it deserved to be re-elected, while 73% said it was ‘time for a change’.

Ahead of the 1979 election, Labour PM Jim Callaghan famously wrote in his diaries, “there are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”

The outcome of the 2024 election will hinge upon whether there has indeed been a sea-change in the mood of the electorate and whether signs that the economy has turned a corner will do little to change its mind.

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‘We’re always the afterthought’: The changes people want to see in the budget

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'We're always the afterthought': The changes people want to see in the budget

In the upstairs bar of a slick new brewery, the cheese-lovers of Halifax are paying “homage to fromage”.

It is one of the first events in the historic West Yorkshire town’s further monthly cheese club and there is a decent turn-out.

Sky News visited Halifax's clubs, bars and restaurants to get an insight into people's priorities
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Sky News visited Halifax’s clubs, bars and restaurants to get an insight into people’s priorities

The night-time economy in Halifax is a useful measure of how the landscapes of our town and cities have changed
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The night-time economy in Halifax is a useful measure of how the landscapes of our town and cities have changed

Discussion of Wednesday’s budget is not as popular as an accompaniment to the cheese as the selection of wines. But no one holds back on what is required of the chancellor.

Natalie Rogers, who runs her own small business with her partner, said there needs to be focus.

Small business owner Natalie Rogers wants to see more investment in local industries
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Small business owner Natalie Rogers wants to see more investment in local industries

“I think investing in small businesses, investing in these northern towns, where at one time we were making all the money for the country, can we not get back to that? We’re not investing in local industries.”

At the next table, with a group of friends, Ali Fletcher said there needs to be bigger targets.

“I think wealth inequality is a major problem. The divide is getting wider. For me, a wealth tax is absolutely critical. We need to address this question of ‘Is there any money left?’. There’s plenty of money, it’s all about choices that government make.”

More on Budget 2025

At this monthly cheese club, people told us about their priorities ahead of the budget
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At this monthly cheese club, people told us about their priorities ahead of the budget

The evening’s cheese tasting was being marshalled by Lisa Kempster. “The impression I get from talking to people is there’s a lot of uncertainty, but when you ask them what they’re uncertain about, they’re not really sure, there’s just a general feeling of uncertainty and being cautious.”

Ali Fletcher reckons wealth inequality is a major problem
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Ali Fletcher reckons wealth inequality is a major problem

Read more:
Budget will be big – and Starmer has some serious convincing to do
Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’
What tax rises could chancellor announce?

This corner of Halifax, close to the town’s historic Piece Hall, is buzzing with clubs, bars and restaurants, trying hard to defy the crunch in the night-time economy. It is a useful measure of how the landscapes of our town and cities has changed.

“Whenever there’s a budget, for a few days afterwards, there’s a drop off in trade,” said Michael Ainsworth, owner of the Graystone Unity, a bar and music venue in the town.

“I accept the government needs to raise money but, in this day and age, there’s better ways to go about doing that, like closing tax loopholes for the huge businesses to operate up with banking arrangements outside the UK.”

Michael Ainsworth owns a bar and music venue and thinks the chancellor needs to close tax loopholes
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Michael Ainsworth owns a bar and music venue and thinks the chancellor needs to close tax loopholes

In the bar, a folk singer is going through a quirky and caustic set. In the basement, a punk band called Edward Molby is considerably louder.

On a sofa in the main bar, recent graduates Josh Kinsella and Ruby Firth, newly arrived in Halifax because of its more affordable housing, pinpoint what they want on Wednesday.

“Can we stop triple-locking the pensions, please? Stop giving pensioners everything. For God’s sake, I know they have hard times in the 70s and the 80s, but it just feels like we’re now paying for everyone else.”

Josh Kinsella and Ruby Firth feel there's too much focus on pensioners
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Josh Kinsella and Ruby Firth feel there’s too much focus on pensioners

Ben Randm is a familiar face at the bar and well known on the music scene with his band, Silver Tongued Rascals.

“Everyday people are seen as statistics, we’re always the afterthought. When the cuts are done, we’re always impeded and the ramifications that has for people’s livelihoods, for people’s mental health, for people’s passion and drive… it’s such a struggle.”

He, like many in the night-time economy sector, wants extra help for hospitality and venues that, he says, provide a vital community link.

Ben Randm who has his own band reckons everyday people are 'always the afterthought'
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Ben Randm who has his own band reckons everyday people are ‘always the afterthought’

David Van Gestel chose Halifax to open the third branch of MAMIL, a bar in jokey honour of those cycling “middle-aged men in Lycra”. On a busy quiz night, he said venues had to provide something different to get people out of their homes.

“I think the government needs to start putting some initiatives in place. They talk about growth but the reality is that the only thing we’re seeing grow is our costs.”

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Above inflation £550 boost for pensioners expected in budget

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Above inflation £550 boost for pensioners expected in budget

Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a higher-than-inflation rise for 13 million pensioners in her upcoming budget.

People on the full rate of the new state pension will benefit with more than £550 a year more.

“Whether it’s our commitment to the triple lock or to rebuilding our NHS to cut waiting lists, we’re supporting pensioners to give them the security in retirement they deserve,” the chancellor said.

Wednesday’s long-trailed budget is expected to be big and speculation has persisted on whether it will include tax rises – and who those rises will affect.

And while she is expected to reaffirm the government’s commitment to the triple lock, she is believed to be considering limiting how much workers can put in their pension pots under sacrifice schemes before paying national insurance.

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Sky News goes inside the room where the budget happens

Read more:
Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises
Reeves hints at more welfare cuts after previous rebellion

Craig Beaumont, external affairs director at the Federation of Small Business, said in comments reported by the Financial Times: “The chancellor promised not to come back for more but attacking salary sacrifice, which has been in place for 40 years to help employers help their staff, will impact business and their staff.”

More on Budget 2025

In another move, the chancellor is expected to extend a crackdown on benefit fraud in an effort to raise £1.2bn.

This would include extending targeted case reviews, which root out inaccuracies in universal credit claims.

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Budget: Own-goal or winner?

Ms Reeves is also thought to be considering bringing in a pay-per-mile tax for electric vehicle drivers.

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FCA consumer chief Mills to leave City watchdog

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FCA consumer chief Mills to leave City watchdog

One of the City watchdog’s top executives is to step down after an eventful eight-year tenure in which he also applied to run Britain’s competition regulator.

Sky News has learnt that Sheldon Mills, the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) executive director, consumers and competition, is to leave in the coming months.

Mr Mills, who joined the FCA in 2018, is understood to have been asked to lead a review of the growing use of artificial intelligence in the delivery of financial advice to consumers after he steps down.

His departure from one of the UK’s most powerful economic regulators is understood to have been communicated to FCA employees late last week.

Mr Mills, who has also chaired Stonewall, the LGBTQ+ charity, is said to have been on a leave of absence for much of the last 12 months.

The FCA website says his executive duties are “currently being covered by Sarah Pritchard and David Geale, Managing Director, [Payment Systems Regulator]”.

Insiders said the financial services watchdog would shortly advertise for a new executive director of markets, Ms Pritchard’s former role.

The shake-up comes months after Nikhil Rathi, the FCA chief executive, was appointed to a second five-year term by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.

Ministers have been pressing Britain’s main economic regulators this year to adopt growth-oriented policies and remove red tape for businesses as the economy struggles.

The FCA declined to comment on Sunday.

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