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The NHL’s conference finals have arrived, and if you asked around in September, the four teams remaining were some of the most likely answers to the question, “Who will win the Stanley Cup?”

We didn’t get here the way many would have imagined, though. In the East, there can be no debate that the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers are the best teams, and were the best teams over the course of the season.

The West, however, was a little more surprising. The Dallas Stars battled the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets all season for the No. 1 spot in the West, with all three teams having spells at the top. The Edmonton Oilers had times during the season when they were wholly unconvincing as playoff threats, including a dismal start that saw them nine points out of a playoff spot in November, leading to the dismissal of coach Jay Woodcroft.

In our series previews, we look at specific areas: key points of difference in the series, the X factor, which team my model favors and the reasons why, along with a projection on the series result.

The model is a neural network that accounts for player strength, offensive, defensive and special teams performance, goaltending, matchup ratings and rest. As the model ingests data, it improves, with the heaviest weights on recent play. The model allows for players to be added and removed, with their impact on the game results measured.

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Leafs finish off Senators for spot in East semifinals

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Leafs finish off Senators for spot in East semifinals

OTTAWA, Ontario — Max Pacioretty scored the tiebreaking goal with less than six minutes remaining, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to a series-clinching 4-2 victory over the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night in Game 6 of their first-round matchup.

William Nylander had two goals, including an empty-netter in the final seconds, and an assist, and Auston Matthews added a power-play goal in the first period for Toronto. Anthony Stolarz made 20 saves.

Brady Tkachuk and David Perron scored for Ottawa. Thomas Chabot had two assists and Linus Ullmark made 19 saves.

The Maple Leafs advanced to take on the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games in their first-round series.

Toronto grabbed a 3-0 series lead, but Ottawa stayed alive with a 4-3 overtime victory in Game 4 and a 4-0 shutout in Game 5.

The Maple Leafs finally put away the Senators in Game 6.

With the game tied at 2, Pacioretty — a heathy scratch to start the series — scored the winner with 5:39 remaining off a pass from Max Domi that beat Ullmark to the glove side. It was Pacioretty’s first goal of the playoffs.

Scott Laughton hit the post before Nylander iced it into the empty net with 18.3 seconds left.

Matthews put Toronto up 1-0 on a power play with 70 seconds left in the first period when he fired a low shot through traffic.

Nylander, on his 29th birthday, made it 2-0 just 43 seconds into the second when he ripped a shot past Ullmark after Pacioretty forced a turnover from Senators defenseman Nick Jensen.

Ottawa got on the board at 7:28 when Tkachuk tipped a shot past Stolarz.

Toronto, which beat Ottawa four times in five playoffs series in the early 2000s, came close to restoring its two-goal lead when John Tavares poked a loose puck off the post before Ullmark denied Matthew Knies and Brandon Carlo off the rush.

Perron scored with 7:20 left in regulation to tie it on a shot from below the goal line that went in off Stolarz’s back to make it 2-2.

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Eichel’s 1st goal of series helps Knights advance

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Eichel's 1st goal of series helps Knights advance

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Jack Eichel scored his first goal of the series to give Vegas the lead late in the second period, and Adin Hill held it up on a 29-save night to spur the Golden Knights on to the second round with a 3-2 victory in Game 6 against the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night.

Shea Theodore scored first and Mark Stone scored last for Vegas, which will face the winner of the Edmonton-Los Angeles series. The Oilers took a 3-2 lead on the Kings into Game 6 on their home ice later Thursday.

Minnesota has lost nine consecutive series in the NHL playoffs and last made it out of the first round 10 years ago.

Ryan Hartman had two goals for the Wild, including a wraparound with 3:27 left that came 31 seconds after Stone had just given the Golden Knights a two-goal lead.

Stone, who set up Eichel with a long pass out of the zone that was inches out of reach of the stick of Kirill Kaprizov after he dived to try to prevent the breakaway, had four points in the last three games. Neither Stone nor Eichel recorded a single point in the first three games.

Hartman tied the game for the Wild with four seconds left in the first period, a goal safe from replay review unlike his go-ahead score in Game 5 with 1:15 remaining in regulation that was revoked for an offside call after Vegas challenged.

The Wild were unshaken by the consecutive overtime losses that erased their 2-1 lead, confident they measured up to the deeper Golden Knights and could still take the series.

They were quickly playing from behind, though, after Marco Rossi got the dreaded double minor penalty for high-sticking Brayden McNabb with just 2:27 elapsed in the game.

Theodore wristed in a shot from the high slot with Stone and Tomas Hertl screening Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson, immediately quieting the crowd near the end of the first power play. Gustavsson, who was forced out of Game 5 after two periods due to an illness, had 20 saves.

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Draisaitl, Hellebuyck, Kucherov are Hart finalists

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Draisaitl, Hellebuyck, Kucherov are Hart finalists

Edmonton Oilers star forward Leon Draisaitl, Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck and Tampa Bay Lightning standout Nikita Kucherov were named finalists for the 2024-25 Hart Memorial Trophy on Thursday.

The award is presented “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team” and voted on by members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

Draisaitl, 29, led the NHL in goals (52), tied for third in points (106) and was a career-best plus-32 in 71 games this season. He won the award in 2019-20 and is a two-time finalist.

Hellebuyck, 31, led the league in wins (47), goals-against average (2.00) and shutouts (eight) and was second in save percentage (.925) among goalies to play at least 25 games. The Vezina Trophy finalist as the best goaltender in the NHL is a first-time Hart finalist.

Kucherov, 31, led the NHL in scoring for the second consecutive season with 121 points (37 goals, 84 assists). He won the Hart Trophy in 2018-19 and is a three-time finalist.

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