Starmer win, or Sunak comeback of the century? Either way 4 July will be a record-breaking battle for No 10
This general election campaign is set to be an epochal, history-making election whichever way it goes.
If Starmer wins an outright majority, it will be the largest ever uniform swing for a winning party, beyond what Tony Blair achieved in 1997. If Rishi Sunak manages to remain in Downing Street – well no PM has ever come back from being 20 points behind in the polls six months out from an election, let alone weeks.
So either way, July 4 will be a record-breaking battle for No.10.
It was, I understand, a “finely balanced” decision to call the election. The prime minister had been taking soundings from colleagues. He had called the civil service in last week to advise on timing options.
I hear from a couple of sources that Isaac Levido, Sunak’s campaign chief, had wanted to go in the autumn, in order to test the messages and see economic improvement bed in, but the PM decided to go now.
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One person who knows the PM explained it to me as this – the PM wants to project confidence and believes he has a plan for the country that aligns with voters. One No.10 source told me Michael Gove summed up it best in cabinet: “Who dares wins and you dare and you are going to win.”
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Why is this a ‘historic’ election?
For Labour, euphoria. For the Tories a show of strength
But to get a sense check as we kick off day one of the campaign, let me give you a taster of the mood in the different camps.
On the Labour side, euphoria; they get the election they have been calling for, at a moment when some around Starmer would quietly say to you that the only way is down in terms of polling. Months of trying to hold the lead turns to weeks. And the message is singular: “Change, that’s our election message.”
On the Tory side, Sunak’s allies explain it like this; the economy is back to normal and this is a “show of strength” to quote one. “He’s not afraid and is completely and utterly confident in his values and principles being aligned with the public and being able to prosecute that argument.”
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Sky News election announcement
The gambler: Why summer election is a big call for the PM
Starmer: Election is ‘moment country has been waiting for’
Choice or change
There is, I think, something else at play. Some 10 months of wage growth while inflation has been falling hasn’t reaped the dividends with voters that perhaps Team Sunak expected. People aren’t feeling the difference, and waiting a few months isn’t going to change that. So with good economic news now – on inflation and growth – the PM sets it up as a choice.
His MPs are spitting as they look down the barrel of election loss – whatever the gloss Mr Gove likes to put on it. I’m told that a sitting minister publicly asked at the meeting of backbench MPs on Wednesday night if they could submit a letter of no confidence in the PM. “It’s madness,” said one former cabinet minister on election timing, while another told me: “We are in deep trouble.”
As for the coming weeks, get used to these messages: Sunak on the choice at the next election and Starmer on the change.
Labour believe that the voters have had enough of the Conservatives, and this has been borne out in recent ballot box tests. Mr Sunak has made the gamble he can pull off in six weeks what he has failed to do 18 months into the job – win voters over.
Starmer win, or Sunak comeback of the century? Either way 4 July will be a record-breaking battle for No.10.
Politics
‘Waiting in various states of freezing cold’: Behind the scenes of covering the election campaign
Covering a general election campaign as a journalist can largely be summed up in two words – battle bus.
Not too dissimilar to the coaches that rockstars use for their tours, battle buses are the vehicles each political party uses to transport their leaders, candidates, and advisers around the country during the election campaign.
Sky’s political correspondents have each been following a different party – often joining them on their battle buses.
Here we take you behind the scenes on the campaign trail this week for the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats.
Conservatives – Darren McCaffrey
Monday, 10 June
Boarding the battle bus
It’s just after 7am on a pretty miserable Monday morning and we’re going to the South East of England today.
Unsurprisingly, by the way, the prime minister is not on the bus – he very rarely is. But we are.
Let’s see what this week holds for not the best start, I think it’s fair to say, for the Conservatives’ campaign…
Tuesday, 11 June
At Silverstone race track for the Conservative Party manifesto launch
Good morning from Silverstone. It’s Tuesday. It’s the big day for the Conservatives.
I say we’re at Silverstone, the track is just there, but we’re not allowed outside, because apparently there’s a big Hollywood film being filmed with Brad Pitt, so we’re not allowed to film outside.
We’re here for the Tory party manifesto launch, which is happening behind there – but we’re also not allowed to go there at the moment either.
So we’re stuck in this room with tea and lots of other journalists, waiting for Rishi Sunak a little later on.
At Silverstone for the manifesto launch
So it’s all over. The PM has made his speech.
It’s interesting what’s happening here though, in the very far corner, you have to be a little bit quiet, there are lots of journalists who have been briefed about what’s in the speech, so they can ask questions about what’s in the manifesto and they’re being probed on that at the moment by the lobby – that’s what happens at these events.
Wednesday, 12 June
At Kings Cross station
It’s Wednesday morning, we’re heading north to meet the PM in Lincolnshire a bit later this morning.
We’re meant to be on the 9.03am train but it’s been cancelled so we’re all waiting around not quite knowing what’s about to happen or what time we’re going to get there.
This is just a sign of how the campaign goes – a bit of confusion sometimes.
We’re on the way to Grimsby.
The prime minister is on the bus and this is our chance to go to the back of the bus where he is and have a little chat with him – off-camera – but it’s a chance to ask him some questions to see how the campaign is going. Let’s go!
Speaking to Rishi Sunak on the Tory battle bus
Rishi Sunak: “When I’m on the road, I’m an avid games player. I do Connections, Wordle, Sudoku, Solitaire
“I’ve got everyone doing it. Connections is really fun, my kids got me onto it.”
So that’s another visit done.
Frankly, I’m pretty tired. I’ve lost count of the number of visits we’ve done, but me and the bus are going to roll on to the next one – with less than three weeks to go now until polling day.
Labour – Serena Barker-Singh
Doing lives in Grimsby ahead of Sky’s leaders programme
Wednesday, 12 June
We’ve just got to Grimsby.
We’re setting up to do some lives, teeing up what Labour’s launching today and also nodding to the fact that we’ve got our debate later.
On the way to a Labour campaign event
So I just interviewed Keir Starmer – well you get one question – each broadcaster gets one question.
I asked him about tax. It’s quite a difficult day where there are lots of different bits that people can ask.
So I asked whether he’s going to stick to the promises in his manifesto tomorrow once he’s in government.
Interviewing Sir Keir Starmer
Liberal Democrats – Matthew Thompson
At an event with the Disabled Sailing Association in Devon
Tuesday, 11 June
This is the glamour of being on the campaign with the Lib Dems.
It’s mainly hanging around in various states of being freezing cold waiting for Ed Davey to do something completely daft.
At a Lib Dem event in Somerset with Sir Ed Davey (behind, right)
Wednesday, 12 June
In Stratford on Avon
With Sir Ed Davey at a campaign event in Stratford on Avon
“Go to uni, they said… become a journalist, they said… report the news, they said!”
Welcome to Stratford-on-Avon.
This is a part of the world that hasn’t been Liberal since 1906 and you might say it needs something of a sizable swing for the Lib Dems to win it back from the Conservatives.
One man who’s fairly confident of getting that sizable swing, swinging beside me, is Sir Ed Davey.
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Politics
Tories heading for ‘warfare’, Farage predicts, as ex-Cabinet minister pleads with voters to ‘unite the right’
Nigel Farage has predicted the Tories will soon descend into “warfare” as a former Conservative minister warned voters about a “Labour elective dictatorship” if they voted for Reform.
The Reform UK leader told The Sunday Telegraph that divisions in the party were only going to “get worse” in the run-up to polling day on 4 July.
Mr Farage was speaking as three polls this week painted a bleak picture for Mr Sunak – and a sunny one for his party.
A poll by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph showed the Tories down four points to just 21% of the vote – the lowest by that pollster since the dying days of Theresa May’s premiership in early 2019.
In a boost for Mr Farage, the poll showed Reform UK up three points with 13% of the vote.
Election latest: Tories ‘facing electoral extinction’, says pollster
A separate Survation poll for Best for Britain, published by The Sunday Times, predicted the Tories would win just 72 seats in the next parliament, compared with 456 for Labour.
The result would give Labour a majority of 262 seats – far surpassing the landslide Labour achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 – while the Liberal Democrats would pick up 56 seats, Reform seven and the Greens one seat.
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‘Do you think Nigel Farage should be embraced by the Conservatives?
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Earlier in the week, a YouGov poll put Reform ahead of the Tories for the first time – on 19% of the vote, compared with 18% for the Conservatives.
Mr Farage, who is set to launch Reform’s manifesto on Monday, told the Sunday Telegraph that “within a week, you watch… there’ll be warfare within the Conservative Party as there was in the run-up to ’97,” referring to the election when Labour last won a landslide under Mr Blair.
He likened the current divisions in the Conservative Party – chiefly over migration – to splits under former Tory prime minister John Major over joining the Euro.
“In the run-up to ’97, John Major said that he was agnostic about joining the Euro,” he told the newspaper.
“Those who wanted to join the Euro did their own manifesto and raised their own money. It was an absolutely split, divided joke and the same will happen in this election. You watch, it’s coming.
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“You will start to see those MPs, who I agree with on most things, start becoming much more vociferous about their stance as opposed to that of the party. The splits are going to get worse. And to them, I will say: ‘Sorry guys, you are just in the wrong party’.”
It comes as former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who is touted as a future Tory leader, gave an interview with the same newspaper saying he “shares the frustrations” of traditional Tory voters who are tempted to defect to Reform – but that they should stick with Mr Sunak’s party to avoiding handing Labour a landslide.
“I have immense sympathy for those natural Conservatives who feel let down and drawn to Reform,” he said.
Robert Jenrick says he has sympathy for those natural Conservatives who feel drawn to Reform
“Not only do I understand their frustrations, I share many of them.
“The tax burden is too high, the criminal justice system too soft and public services too inefficient. My disagreements with the government on immigration policy meant I resigned from cabinet.”
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He added: “But, ultimately, a vote for Reform will only give Labour a blank cheque to take our country back to the 1970s.
“Voting Reform cannot be the answer. It can only bring about a government that increases taxes and immigration. Their success can only weaken the conservative movement. The right cannot unify after the election if there is no meaningful force in parliament to coalesce around.
“Our task is to make conservatives across Britain aware of this peril. If we can do that, and make the case that only a vote for the Conservative Party can prevent a calamitous one-party state come 5 July, then we can avert disaster.”
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