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A sign displays gas prices at a gas station on May 21, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.

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The Biden administration’s move to sell 1 million barrels of gasoline from a reserve in the Northeast is unlikely to have a substantial effect on pump prices as summer driving season gets underway, according to market analysts. 

The Department of Energy said Tuesday the sale would be timed to have a maximum impact on prices this summer with deliveries completed before the Fourth of July holiday.

But the barrels in the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve are equivalent to just 2.65 hours of total U.S. gasoline consumption and two or three days in the areas where the gas is stored, said Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

“It’s not going to be a huge needle mover,” de Haan said, though the sale could provide 5 cents to 10 cents of relief in the Northeast where the gasoline market is historically tight.

“This is not going to be huge party at the pump,” the analyst said.

The motorist association AAA agrees, with spokesman Andrew Gross saying the sale might “help stave off any regional pump price surges, but likely won’t move the national average that much.”

Gas prices trending lower

Oil prices surged last month as Israel and OPEC member Iran stood on the brink of war, raising concern at the White House that gasoline prices could jump heading into the summer.

But gas prices have been trending lower for weeks now as demand has softened and U.S. oil prices have pulled back 11% from April highs after a broader conflict in the Middle East was averted.

Prices at the pump are averaging about $3.61 per gallon nationwide heading into Memorial Day weekend, around five cents lower than the average last month, according to data from the motorist association AAA. However, current prices are still roughly five cents higher than the year-ago average.

When adjusting for inflation, pump prices are about 2% lower compared to last year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

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The gasoline sale announced by the Biden administration fulfills a mandate passed by Congress in March to close the Northeast Reserve this year.

De Haan said the reserve didn’t make financial sense to begin with. It was set up in in 2014 in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, which knocked out refineries and caused chaos at the pump.

But the reserve cost taxpayers $200 million just to maintain while the gasoline in the stockpile is only worth about $103 million right now, de Haan said.

“I don’t like the political victory lap,” he said of the Biden administration’s announcement. “It didn’t make sense to have this reserve. [Former President Donald] Trump tried to shut it down in 2020. Congress now approved it being shut down.”

De Haan said the summer driving season is already getting off to a “soft start,” with gasoline demand about 8% lower through Thursday compared to the year-ago period. Even in costly California, gasoline prices are down about 27 cents over the past four weeks, he said. 

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WTI v. Brent

“We know a lot of folks are saying they’re going to be traveling for Memorial Day,” de Haan said. “That would just imply to me that more people may be flying than driving this time around.”

AAA, however, is forecasting a record 38 million drivers will take to the road this weekend, a 4% increase compared to last year. This could move prices slightly higher, the group said.

But de Haan said gasoline prices will likely edge lower through the Fourth of July holiday as refiners increase output, which should keep downward pressure on pump prices. 

For July, GasBuddy is forecasting prices in a range of $3.39 to $3.72 per gallon on average nationwide. De Haan expects prices to be in the lower half of that range and generally sit in the mid-$3 range.

“Since the pandemic, the summer driving season has not seen a surge in demand, which can push pump prices higher,” said Gross, the AAA spokesperson.

Hurricane season wildcard

The gasoline price outlook becomes more uncertain heading into Labor Day on Sept. 2. Hurricane season in the Atlantic is expected to be extremely active this year, according to forecasts from Colorado State University Tropical and Weather Climate Research.

The Colorado university report is forecasting 11 hurricanes this season, the highest number ever issued in its April outlook due to extremely warm sea surface temperatures and the likely development of La Niña conditions. There is a 42% chance that a hurricane makes landfall in the Gulf Coast, the hub of U.S. oil infrastructure, CSU found.

If a major hurricane knocks refiners offline, gasoline prices could rapidly spike 50 cents a gallon for a month or two before returning to normal, de Haan said.

“Anyone traveling or planning a late-season road trip needs to be watching the Gulf of Mexico and watching the Atlantic because we’ve seen profound impacts from hurricanes on refiners before and that’s a worry for the closing innings of summer,” he said.

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What are these hidden vehicles in Rivian’s shareholder letter?

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What are these hidden vehicles in Rivian's shareholder letter?

On top of Rivian’s big VW partnership news today, we also got a look at what some of Rivian’s future plans might include – including some vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about before.

To recap the news, VW will invest up to $5 billion into Rivian and form a joint venture giving VW access to much of Rivian’s electrical and electronic architecture expertise. This will help Rivian with much-needed liquidity as it tries to get costs down and start generating cash flow from vehicle sales, and will help VW with the software issues it has been having in ramping up its EV projects.

To explain the news, Rivian posted a shareholder letter on its website, which is mostly filled with the basic financial details that we saw earlier in press releases.

But it also includes a graphic demonstrating the scalability of Rivian’s software across its platforms, meant to show how Rivian is unifying and simplifying its vehicle control software.

And that graphic has something very interesting – some hidden vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about yet. Have a look:

The obvious ones here are the already-released vehicles, Rivian’s RCV, R1T and R1S. The R1T and R1S are then repeated in column 2, in reference to the newly-released “Gen 2” architecture. This architecture led to a big upgrade in Rivian’s EVs for this model year, cutting lots of cost and complexity.

Then, in column 3, we have the R2 and R3 which Rivian unveiled in March. These will both be built on an architecture Rivian is calling “MSP.”

But despite that we’ve seen these next-gen R1 and MSP vehicles, both columns 2 and 3 have placeholder vehicles under covers.

While these are definitely just placeholder images and could be anything, they are notably a different size/shape than each other, suggesting that the unreleased gen 2 vehicle will be larger than the MSP vehicle.

The gen 2 vehicle could be an upgraded RCV, with more simplified electronics for cost-cutting, but the silhouette doesn’t look right. However, that might be an attempt by Rivian to obfuscate the car’s form, as a van silhouette would be quite obvious.

The unreleased gen 3 vehicle, then, does look lower and smaller than the gen 2. It could indeed be the R3X, but we’ve already seen that one, so it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to put it back under a cover. That said, Rivian was a little more secretive about showing us the interior of the R3X, as compared to the amount of info it gave us about the R2, so it could be the R3X… but wouldn’t it be more fun if it wasn’t?

For one thing, it could potentially be an R2T, a more affordable and smaller truck. While we knew the R2 would come in SUV format, many assumed that Rivian might mention an R2 truck alongside the R2 SUV, given that the company started with a truck to begin with. We didn’t see an R2T at the unveiling, but maybe they’re still working on that. The silhouette under the cover doesn’t look like a truck – but again, that would be a dead giveaway, so it makes sense they’d just use a default image.

Finally, we reach the last column: “affordable mass market.” This, too, is new, and includes three separate vehicle forms. While we’ve already learned not to trust the placeholder images, note that the images are all different, suggesting that there might be a large, medium and small-size vehicle on this eventual platform.

When R2 and R3 were unveiled, many figured that the R3 would likely be lower price than the R2, which Rivian confirmed – but didn’t go any further than that to state a price range. We assumed it would probably be somewhere around the price level of the Volvo EX30 or Chevy Equinox – somewhere in the mid-30s. We figured this was the next step towards mass-market, as it would be lower in price than the R2.

Another category of “affordable mass market” vehicles suggests either that the R3 will be higher in price than we had thought, leaving room in the low-to-mid 30s for a 4th-gen platform, or it suggests that Rivian is working on a ~$25k vehicle to be in the truly affordable mass market range, among the lowest price level offered for new vehicles by most major manufacturers (and in the future dreams of EV makers, like VW’s ~$22k 2027 offering or the fabled $25k Tesla Model 2).

We also don’t know what size those vehicles will be. They may all be “crossover-like” vehicles like those Rivian currently makes and has announced (the R3 sits somewhere between crossover and hot hatch), and the vehicles under the sheets (which, again, we can’t trust) do look to have “Rivian DNA” and may just be photos of the R1, R2 and R3. But perhaps the use of 3 different vehicle sizes suggests that Rivian might be working on a sedan, a compact, a sporty small car, or something along those lines. The company’s first-ever project was a sportscar, after all.

Or maybe it’s nothing at all. We reached out to Rivian about this and were told “it just demonstrates how our software can scale across platforms.”

But if that’s the case, why not use photos of VW vehicles, or why use vehicles that are clearly Rivian-styled rather than generic lumps? Why have a covered vehicle under the Gen 2 column, which presumably wouldn’t be the architecture used by any partnerships (as MSP would likely be ready by the time this VW partnership bears fruit)? So, we still think there’s something here.

A final note is that, while we did know the R2 was coming and saw several leaks in advance of its unveiling, everyone was blindsided by the R3. Similarly, when Rivian first unveiled its R1T in 2018, it was a complete surprise to everyone despite that the automaker had been founded in 2009 and had been working in “stealth mode” since then. So, Rivian does know how to keep secrets, apparently, and your guess is as good as ours as to what’s under those covers.

What do you think Rivian is hiding? Or is it nothing at all? Let us know in the comments.

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Cybertruck recalls, Tesla vs. Camry, Polestar upgrades, and electric flight gets real

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Cybertruck recalls, Tesla vs. Camry, Polestar upgrades, and electric flight gets real

We gave the Tesla Cybertruck a lot of heat yesterday, and today we’re back for more as every single example of the controversial electric pickup built so far has been recalled. Meanwhile a Model 3 is cheaper than a Camry now, Polestar 2 gets an upgrade, and electric flight takes off. All this and more on today’s energizing episode of Quick Charge!

I also want to draw attention to yesterday’s Quick Charge episode and say that I didn’t mean for the call for better signage to be a criticism of the signage at Wrigley Field. As many of you pointed out in the comments, the last thing we need as drivers is more signs and more distractions. That said, I stand by the assertion that big signs build confidence in the ICE-driving normies, but the best answer might be something more nuanced than a 60′ EV charging sign.

See? I do pay attention to the comments! (Totally doubling down on that whole “picking on the Cybertruck” thing, though.) Enjoy!

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded Monday through Thursday (that’s the plan, anyway). We’ll be posting bonus audio content there as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!

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VW will invest up to $5B into Rivian to form joint venture for next-gen EVs

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VW will invest up to B into Rivian to form joint venture for next-gen EVs

VW and Rivian have just announced that the two companies will form a joint venture, bringing Rivian’s software expertise to VW’s products and providing an initial $1 billion, and potentially up to an eventual $5 billion, in capital for Rivian to get through its push to deliver its upcoming R2 vehicle.

Rivian is currently working hard to get costs down in its quest for profitability. While the company has large cash reserves, it’s running through them at relatively rapid rate. The financials get a little bit better each quarter, but there is still a lot of work to be done.

Recently, Rivian announced that it would delay building its plant in Georgia in order to save over $2 billion in the short term, helping reduce pressure on its near-term financials.

Now, today, the company has had another pressure valve released, as VW and Rivian have announced they will form a joint venture to bring Rivian’s software to VW’s EVs, with VW offering an initial $1 billion in capital and potentially up to $5 billion by 2026.

“Our customers benefit from the targeted partnership with Rivian to create a leading technology architecture. Through our cooperation, we will bring the best solutions to our vehicles faster and at lower cost. We are also acting in the best interest of our strong brands, which will inspire with their iconic products. The partnership fits seamlessly with our existing software strategy, our products, and partnerships. We are strengthening our technology profile and our competitiveness.”

Oliver Blume, CEO of Volkswagen Group

The partnership is valuable for VW as well, as software has been its biggest issue recently. VW’s previous CEO, Herbert Diess, stepped down in 2022, and it’s thought that software issues were the main reason for his departure. In 2023, VW hired a former Rivian exec to help with software. It must have liked what it got, as the companies are deepening their relationship now.

The partnership begins with VW offering a $1 billion convertible note to Rivian, which will convert into an equity holding around the end of this year.

In addition, the two companies will establish a 50/50 joint venture around “next generation electrical/electronic architecture.” This will give VW immediate access to Rivian’s software architecture, which has been seen as one of the major strengths of the company.

“We’re very excited to be partnering with Volkswagen Group. Since the earliest days of Rivian, we have been focused on developing highly differentiated technology, and it’s exciting that one of the world’s largest and most respected automotive companies has recognized this. Not only is this partnership expected to bring our software and associated zonal architecture to an even broader market through Volkswagen Group’s global reach, but this partnership also is expected to help secure our capital needs for substantial growth. Rivian was created to help the world to transition away from fossil fuels through compelling products and services, and this partnership is beautifully aligned with that mission.”

RJ Scaringe, Founder and CEO of Rivian

After the establishment of this joint venture, VW says it will invest an additional $4 billion into Rivian, in $1 billion tranches in 2025 and 2026, contingent on Rivian meeting “certain milestones.”

After the announcement, RIVN stock is trading up more than 40% in after hours trading. It had already risen 8% during today’s trading session after an analyst upgrade. Rivian will hold an investor call at 3pm Pacific, 6pm eastern here.

Electrek’s Take

This is great news for Rivian, and great news for VW as well.

However, Rivian has had a number of past partnerships that didn’t turn out.

Rivian had previously partnered with Ford to build Ford/Lincoln EVs and also with Mercedes to build electric vans. Both of those fell through, with the Mercedes deal including a joint venture and the Ford deal including a big investment which Ford later trimmed.

Rivian has also partnered with Amazon to deliver 100,000 delivery vans. That partnership is going well with over 10,000 vehicles delivered, but the exclusivity portion of the contract recently ran out, and now Rivian is looking for more purchasers.

In this case, though, I can see a direct reason for Voltswagen to need Rivian’s help. While their software is a lot better now than it used to be, software has been the achilles heel of traditional auto companies in general, and VW specifically. And with VW’s yearly revenue ($335 billion in 2023), they can spare a little change to fix one of their major problems.

One other interesting note: VW recently spun off its classic Scout brand into a Rivian-like adventure EV. That was seen as an attempt to compete in a market that Rivian is currently the best offering in. We wonder if this partnership will include using Rivian’s expertise for the Scout? Stay tuned.

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