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China has tested its ability to “seize power” by launching mock missile strikes on Taiwan and pretending to bomb foreign assets.

The two-day tests were staged to punish Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, who China has previously denounced as being a “dangerous separatist”.

China dispatched fighter jets carrying live missiles along with bombers on Friday, state broadcaster CCTV said.

The bombers set up several attack formations in waters east of Taiwan – which China views as its own territory. Mock attacks were carried out in coordination with naval vessels, CCTV added.

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China launched mock missile strikes on Taiwan. Pic: AP

Pic: Reuters
Chinese warships are pictured while navigating at an undisclosed location in waters around Taiwan in this handout image taken on May 23, 2024, released on May 24, 2024. Taiwan Defence Ministry/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALES. NO ARCHIVES.
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Chinese warships in waters around Taiwan on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

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A sign of bigger things to come?

It’s just days after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was sworn into office in Taipei and China is making a big statement – with these so-called “punishment” drills.

The island’s new leader is loathed by Beijing even more than his predecessor, describing Mr Lai as a “dangerous separatist”.

Beijing took great offence at President Lai using the word China to describe China. It believes that revealed his real thinking – that they’re two separate countries.

Now Beijing has carried out numerous blockades before of course, but this time it is casting it as a dress rehearsal for an “invasion”, focused on encircling the island and simulating a full-scale attack.

It says it wants to test its ability to “seize” control over Taiwan. It’s more than simply rhetorical bluster.

It’s an important inflection point and a significant test for Taiwan’s ruling party, which has championed democracy in the face of growing threats from its authoritarian neighbour.

The drills are taking place in the Taiwan Strait, which separates the self-ruling island from mainland China.

They’re not only in the north, south and east of Taiwan, but also the outlying islands of Kinmen, Dongyin, Wuqiu and Matsu.

That expansion, coupled with China’s more muscular language has prompted analysts to warn it could be a sign of bigger things to come.

The name “Joint Sword 2024-A” at the very least suggests more may be afoot.

And there’s global optics and dynamics at play. The recent meeting with Putin was a reminder Xi Jinping wants to create a new world order, away from the US and Taiwan has always been in its sights.

But – and it’s a big but – China is facing a huge economic challenge at home and any war would not only be expensive but experts say, would also take many months to prepare for.

These drills currently look like a warning shot. The real “punishment” may be yet to come.

President Lai has attracted the ire of Beijing over pro-independence comments made earlier in his career.

While the president has since been more cautious about repeating similar remarks, his claim about China having to “face up to the fact that the Republic of Taiwan exists” during his inauguration speech earlier this week was enough to anger Beijing.

A Taiwan Air Force Mirage 2000-5 aircraft prepares to land at Hsinchu Air Base, Taiwan on Friday. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A Taiwan jet landing at Hsinchu Air Base on Friday. Pic: Reuters


‘Seize power’

The Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army said the exercises, dubbed “Joint Sword – 2024A”, were to “test the ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks and occupy key areas”.

“This action is completely reasonable, legal, and necessary to combat the arrogance of ‘Taiwan independence’ and deter the interference and intervention of external forces,” said Wu Qian, a spokesperson of China’s defence ministry.

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Taiwan’s armed forces have mobilised to monitor and shadow Chinese forces, with the island’s defence ministry on Friday publishing pictures of F-16s, armed with live missiles, patrolling the skies.

A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters several Chinese bombers conducted mock attacks on foreign vessels near the eastern end of the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, practicing how to seize “total control” of areas west of the so-called first island chain.

The first island chain refers to the area that runs from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and on to Borneo, enclosing China’s coastal seas.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, said several Chinese coastguard boats also conducted “harassment” drills off Taiwan’s east coast, including mock inspections of civilian ships.

The US Navy 7th Fleet said it was paying attention to “all of the activities” in the Indo-Pacific and takes “very seriously” the responsibility to deter aggression in the region.

‘No concessions’

While the US formally recognises Beijing, it is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and is the island’s most important international backer.

Speaking in Taipei, Taiwan foreign minister Lin Chia-lung said the island would not succumb to pressure.

“We will not make any concessions because of this Chinese military exercise, because it concerns the development of
democracy in Taiwan,” he said.

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Helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims crashes in India, killing seven people

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Helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims crashes in India, killing seven people

A helicopter carrying Hindu pilgrims has crashed in India, killing seven people on board.

The accident happened within minutes of the helicopter taking off, officials said, on what should have been a 10-minute flight.

The helicopter was flying to Guptkashi, a prominent Hindu pilgrimage site in the Himalayas, from Kedarnath temple town in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand.

It comes three days after an Air India flight crashed less than a minute after taking off from Ahmedabad airport in northwestern India, killing at least 270 people.

The helicopter, which was operated by private helicopter service Aryan Aviation, went down in a forested area several miles from the Kedarnath pilgrimage route at around 5.30am local time.

Officials said the crash was believed to have been caused by poor weather conditions.

Authorities say they have launched a search and rescue operation and are expected to review operational protocols for flights in the region.

More on India

The dead include the pilot and pilgrims from the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh and western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, according to officials. The bodies were badly burned in a fire that followed the crash, they said.

Smoke and debris at the crash site. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Smoke and debris at the site. Pic: Reuters

Tens of thousands of pilgrims visit Kedarnath, which is home to one of the four most sacred Hindu temple shrines, each summer. Many use helicopter services due to the difficult mountainous terrain.

Helicopter mishaps are not uncommon in the region, where sudden weather changes and high-altitude flying conditions can pose risks.

Earlier this month, a helicopter operating in the Kedarnath Valley made an emergency landing shortly after taking off on a highway due to a technical fault. The pilot was injured but all five passengers on board were unharmed.

In May, a helicopter crashed in Uttarkashi district, killing six people, including the pilot. One person survived.

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Irish politician faces deportation from Egypt after trying to cross into Gaza

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Irish politician faces deportation from Egypt after trying to cross into Gaza

An Irish politician who was detained in Egypt trying to cross into Gaza says the police were violent towards the group after seizing his phone.

People Before Profit-Solidarity TD (MP) Paul Murphy was part of a large demonstration attempting to march to the Rafah crossing in a bid to get aid into the region.

The opposition politician said his phone and passport were confiscated on Friday before he was put on a bus to Cairo airport for deportation.

Israel-Iran live: ‘Tehran will burn’ if it keeps firing missiles

Footage of the seconds before his phone was seized shows authorities forcibly dragging protesters away from the sit-down demonstration.

Ireland’s deputy premier said several Irish citizens who were detained have now been released. Mr Murphy confirmed he was among the released protesters, posting a photo on his Facebook page saying he was back in Cairo and “meeting shortly to decide next steps”.

In a message from Mr Murphy after he was detained, posted online by his social media team, he said: “I’m ok, but they still have my phone.

“Egyptian police say we’re going to airport but this isn’t the road we came on because there are 1000s of marchers on the streets. They’re taking us south past a lake, then west towards Cairo.

“Violence got worse after they seized my phone.

“One American woman in my group was badly kicked & beaten, and had her hijab torn off.”

Sky News has contacted Egypt’s police regarding Mr Murphy’s claims of violence towards the group.

Mr Murphy previously said other Irish citizen were among those who had been stopped from entering Gaza.

“The world has watched a horrific genocide for the past 20 months. Since March, a total attempt of starvation,” he added.

“And that this is a peaceful march to demand that it be ended and demand that western governments stop their complicity.”

Appeal to foreign affairs minister

Mr Murphy’s partner, Councillor Jess Spear, had previously appealed to Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister and deputy premier Simon Harris to make a public statement on Mr Murphy’s detention.

She expressed “relief” that the group had been released from detention.

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The deadly road to Gaza aid point

She said: “However, they still want to reach Rafah to try and get humanitarian aid into Gaza. That has been the sole purpose of being in Egypt.

“Paul has appealed to Tanaiste Simon Harris to put pressure on the Egyptian authorities to let the marchers reach Rafah. The situation of the people of Gaza worsens by the day as they suffer starvation imposed by Israel.”

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Nuclear threat wasn’t the only reason Israel attacked Iran

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Nuclear threat wasn't the only reason Israel attacked Iran

Why did Israel attack Iran? Certainly, it was worried about the threat of a nuclear weapon being developed.

But it’s also becoming clearer that there was a second reason – that this is about laying the ground for regime change in Tehran.

Follow latest: Israel warns ‘Tehran will burn’ if it continues

Because, hours after his country launched its first, surprise attack, the message from Benjamin Netanyahu couldn’t be clearer – Iranians, he said, should overthrow their “evil and oppressive regime”. He said Israel’s attack would “pave the way for you to achieve your freedom”.

On the one hand, he would say that, wouldn’t he? The Iranian government does not recognise the legitimacy of the Israeli state and has called for its destruction, while funding proxy groups that have attacked Israel – including Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.

But perhaps this time there is more than just wishful thinking.

Although it’s very hard to gauge the level of opposition in Iran, it seems likely the majority of the population of 90 million are at least disenchanted with the regime.

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Netanyahu calls on Iranians to help “thwart” Tehran regime

Living standards have fallen and supplies are running short. While tens of billions of dollars have been spent on a nuclear programme, electricity is being rationed and cooking gas is running low.

Priority is being given to those who are close to the regime, notably the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian army that is fiercely loyal to the ruling regime.

The IRGC are crucial in propping up Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s 86-year-old supreme leader. Not only do they offer military power, but also domestic surveillance, intimidation and secret policing in order to stifle dissent.

So for any opposition to emerge, let alone flourish, the IRGC would need to be degraded – and that is precisely what Israel has done, targeting its senior leaders as well as bases.

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The regular army, so far, has been left alone. Israel’s gamble is that a majority of the rest of the military harbour the same dislike of the IRGC as the wider population.

It was no coincidence that Netanyahu quoted the expression “woman, life, freedom”, which was a rallying call during the 2022 protests in Iran – eventually suppressed by the IRGC.

It is very hard to believe that a coherent, public opposition movement will burst into life any time soon. Iranians are well aware their regime will respond with brutality against any attempted uprising.

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Iranian ballistic missile strikes Israel

Instead, dissidents seem to be biding their time and waiting to see if Israel continues its assaults, and whether they can sense genuine signs that the regime is starting to struggle to maintain control. If the cracks emerge, then regime change – or at least an attempt – is possible.

Possible, but not certain. “They will do anything to stay in power, and when other uprisings have happened, they’ve been successfully suppressed,” one Middle East diplomat tells me.

“And there is no unifying leader ready to step in. Even if there is regime change, it could be a military takeover rather than a popular uprising.”

Read more:
All we know about military chiefs killed by Israel

What are Iran’s military capabilities?

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And that leaves one final question – if Khamenei did feel his grip on power was failing, might he still have the time, desire and power to resort to final, desperate military actions? The truth is, we don’t know.

At the moment, the Middle East is a region full of unanswerable, high-risk questions.

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