Record exodus of MPs from Conservative Party – privately, many believe defeat is inevitable
On the final day the House of Commons sat before the election, the view from the back of the chamber said it all.
As Theresa May – in her familiar flame red suit – left the chamber after a speech by Ben Wallace, the Tory benches were packed, Labour’s almost deserted.
MPs were taking part in a “Valedictory Debate”, an unprecedented and hastily convened piece of parliamentary business for departing MPs to say their farewells.
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And while the debate was going on, an historic milestone was reached: the number of Conservatives standing down exceeded the number in 1997 after 18 years of Tory rule.
With an announcement by the 74-year-old Bexleyheath and Crayford MP Sir David Evennett, the total number of MPs retiring or quitting had reached 76 – one more than the 75 in 1997.
And by the time parliament prorogued at 8.25pm, the number had reached 78, after two shock announcements, first from Michael Gove and then former cabinet minister Andrea Leadsom.
In a moment of pure parliamentary theatre, the news of Mr Gove’s departure was broken to stunned MPs in the Commons by Matt Hancock, who’d earlier made an emotional farewell speech.
Then while the prorogation ceremony was taking place came the bombshell announcement from Dame Andrea, now a junior health minister, that she’s quitting too. And with a barb at Rishi Sunak too!
“I will continue to support the Conservative Party…” she declared pointedly in her letter to Mr Sunak. Most resignation letters from departing ministers offer personal support for the prime minister. Ouch!
So at prorogation the total number of MPs standing down had reached 121, four more than 1997, though still short of the 149 who stood down in 2010, after 13 years of Labour government.
Inside the chamber, the debate had been emotional. There were tears as well as laughs. There were anecdotes and gushing tributes. And even, from one departing MP, bitterness, anger and allegations.
Many of those quitting on both sides of the Commons are distinguished ex-ministers, or prime minister in Mrs May’s case. But many are much younger and in many cases surprise departures.
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Dehenna Davison is one of the youngest MPs standing down. Pic: PA
One of the youngest, Dehenna Davison, told MPs: “I never thought I’d be speaking for the last time in this chamber, let alone at the age of 30.”
Some Tory MPs, it must be said, are leaving parliament after being embroiled in some form of scandal or facing misconduct allegations which resulted in them losing the party whip.
The MP making angry accusations, accusing a government whip of bullying and harassment, was Julian Knight, who faced allegations of serious sexual assault investigated then dropped by police.
Mr Hancock, health secretary during COVID, who lost the Tory whip for appearing on TV reality show I’m A Celebrity, talked in his emotional speech about the effects on his children.
“The impact of the scrutiny of politics, especially when people make mistakes, has a huge impact on them, and they have put up with a lot,” he said, close to tears.
There were tears too from former sports minister Dame Tracey Crouch during what she said was “one of the most emotional speeches I have ever made in parliament”.
Besides Mrs May, Mr Wallace, Mr Gove, Dame Andrea and Mr Hancock, 12 more current or former Tory cabinet ministers departing: Sajid Javid, George Eustice, Alister Jack, Dominic Raab, David Jones, Alok Sharma, Chris Grayling, Brandon Lewis, Nadhim Zahawi, Chris Heaton-Harris, Sir John Redwood and Greg Clark.
In her valedictory speech, with her husband Sir Philip watching on from the public gallery, Mrs May paid tribute to her “best canvasser-in-chief” who was there to “make the beans on toast and pour the whisky” on the difficult days in Downing Street.
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Theresa May urges Tories ‘to go out and fight’
And at the end of the debate, there were tributes to Craig Mackinlay, who made a triumphant, defiant and emotional return to the Commons this week after sepsis but now acknowledges he won’t be fit enough to fight the campaign.
Also going is the inscrutable but always cheerful Sir Graham Brady, who’s chaired the 1922 Committee almost interrupted since 2010 alongside five Tory prime ministers.
Two deputy speakers, the dames Eleanor Laing and Rosie Winterton, and Tory backbench grandees Sir Charles Walker and Sir Bill Cash are departing.
And on the Labour side, the distinguished Dame Margarets, Beckett and Hodge, along with the Mother of the House Dame Harriet Harman, who told MPs Rishi Sunak was two when she was first elected, are leaving.
From the smaller parties, the former SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford and the Green Party’s Caroline Lucas are off too.
And besides Mr Knight, several MPs who’ve lost their party whip, Tories Crispin Blunt, William Wragg, Mark Menzies and Mr Knight and Labour’s Nick Brown and Conor McGinn, are going, along with the former DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, who’s accused of sex offences.
Why are so many Tory MPs going? Is it because they read the opinion polls and believe their party’s time is up and they don’t fancy the hard slog and often unrewarding grind of opposition?
There’s a famous quote attributed to James Callaghan, during the 1979 general election campaign, shortly before Labour was swept from power by Margaret Thatcher.
“You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics,” avuncular “Sunny Jim” observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
“It then doesn’t matter what you say or do. There’s a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change – and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
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In 2024, Tory ministers and loyalist backbenchers won’t admit publicly that there’s a sea change for Labour and Sir Keir Starmer. But privately, many believe defeat is inevitable.
And that’s almost certainly why so many Conservative MPs are quitting.
Nigel Farage will kick off Reform UK’s policies in South Wales on Monday, where he is poised to put pressure on the Tories over immigration and tax.
The Reform leader will launch his party’s “contract with the people” – which they will not call a manifesto – in Merthyr Tydfil to highlight “what happens to a country when Labour is in charge”.
The Senedd in Cardiff is the devolved legislature of Wales and is currently run by a Labour-administration.
The launch will follow a productive few days for Reform that saw his party overtake the Conservatives for the first time – prompting Mr Farage to declare his party the “opposition” to Labour.
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His fortunes increased further after another poll by Survation for The Sunday Times showed the Tories could be reduced to just 72 seats in the next parliament, while a separate survey by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph showed Reform up another three points.
Reform has consistently pushed the Conservatives to adopt a more hardline stance on immigration and tax cuts.
In a flavour of the policies that will be unveiled tomorrow, the party said earlier this month that it would like to see a tax on businesses who employ overseas workers.
This would see firms pay a higher 20% rate of national insurance for foreign workers, up from the current 13.8%.
Reform is also opposed to Labour’s plans to end private school tax exemptions, and wants the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, overseen by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg, in order to use offshore processing centres for illegal immigrants and prevent them from claiming asylum.
Some Tory candidates and former MPs on the right of the party have been agitating for Mr Sunak to advocate for an exit from the ECHR – something he has been reluctant to do but has left the door open to.
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Other Reform policies include offering vouchers to go private if you can’t see a GP in three days, scrapping interest on student loans, increasing police numbers, keeping “woke ideologies out of the classroom”, abolishing the TV licence fee, reforming the Lords and reducing “wasteful spending”.
Mr Farage used an article in The Sunday Telegraph to criticise Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary, for an interview he gave to The Times on Friday in which he urged voters to reject the Reform leader’s “inflammatory language” and “dog whistle” politics.
In response, Mr Farage wrote: “If Lord Cameron is worried about damaging divisions, he should look a bit closer to home.
“The terminally divided Tory party has proved itself incapable of effective government over the past 14 years – and is set to be even more hopelessly split in opposition, after it gets hammered on 4 July.”
The Reform leader will also turn his fire on Labour, saying he had chosen Wales to launch his “contract with the people” “because it shows everyone exactly what happens to a country when Labour is in charge”.
“Schools are worse than in England, NHS waiting lists are longer than in England, COVID restrictions were even tighter than in England and now Welsh motorists are being soaked by literally hundreds of speed cameras to enforce the deeply unpopular new 20mph blanket speed limit in towns and villages,” he said.
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“Meanwhile, the Tories have been the official opposition almost solidly since 2016 and have achieved zilch, which probably explains why we are neck-and-neck with them in the polls in Wales.
“So, if you want a picture of what the whole country will be like with a Starmer government and a feeble Conservative opposition, come to Wales and then hear us unveil a better future for all of Britain”.
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Rishi Sunak has repeatedly said a vote for Mr Farage’s party amounted to handing a “blank cheque” to Labour, whom the polls predict will form the next government from 4 July.
The full list of candidates standing in Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare are:
- Workers Party of Britain – Anthony Cole
- Communist Party of Britain – Bob Davenport
- Independent – Lorenzo de Gregori
- Green Party – David Griffin
- Conservative Party – Amanda Jenner
- Labour Party – Gerald Jones
- Liberal Democrats – Jade Smith
- Reform UK – Gareth Thomas
- Plaid Cymru – Francis Whitefoot
An extra 250,000 children will be hit by the two-child benefit cap next year, rising to an extra half a million by 2029, a leading thinktank has warned.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the number of children who will fall under the cap – which limits child benefits for the first two children in most households – will reach 670,000 by the end of the next parliament if the policy is not reformed.
The two-child benefit cap, which restricts Child Tax Credit and Universal Credit to the first two children, was brought in by the Conservative government in 2017.
Campaigners have long called for it to be abolished on the grounds it would lift thousands of children out of poverty.
It comes as a separate study from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) found 40% of people who work in primary schools and GP surgeries have considered quitting their job because of a “shameful” level of hardship among the population.
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The JRF found the service providers were “staggering under the weight of hardship” by having to provide extra support to the nearly four million people struggling to pay for essentials including food, heating and clothing.
The IFS said the two-child cap has helped drive up the share of children in large families who are in relative poverty from 35% in 2014-15 to 46% in 2022 – a period when poverty for families with one or two children fell.
The Labour Party has faced pressure to drop the cap – including from former prime minister Gordon Brown – but has so far refused to commit to ending it, citing the current state of the country’s finances.
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The pressure intensified further after figures on the right, including former home secretary Suella Braverman and Reform leader Nigel Farage, both called for the cap to be scrapped.
Abolishing the cap does not appear in either the Tory or Labour manifestos, with only the Green Party and Liberal Democrats making the commitment in their offers to the public.
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The IFS said removing the cost of the limit would cost the government about £3.4bn a year, equivalent to freezing fuel duties for the next parliament.
The limit currently affects two million children and more children are added each year because it applies to those born after 5 April 2017.
The IFS said when fully rolled out, the cap will affect one in five children, rising to 38% of those in the poorest fifth of households.
It said 43% of children in households with at least one person of Bangladeshi or Pakistani origin will be affected, while those who fall under it on average will lose £4,300 per year – representing 10% of their income.
IFS research economist Eduin Latimer said: “The two-child limit is one of the most significant welfare cuts since 2010 and, unlike many of those cuts, it becomes more important each year as it is rolled out to more families.”
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Mubin Haq, chief executive of the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, which funded the research, said: “The limit has been a significant contributor to child poverty amongst large families during a period when poverty for families with one or two children fell.
“If the next government is serious about tackling child poverty, it will need to review the two-child limit.”
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Alison Garnham, the chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group, said the “biggest driver” of child poverty in the UK was the two-child limit.
“Any government serious about making things better for the next generation will have to scrap the two-child limit, and do so quickly.”
A Labour spokesperson said: “We are under no illusions about the scale of the task ahead if we win the election.
“Labour has already set out how we would make a start, with free breakfast clubs in every primary school, cutting fuel poverty and bringing down energy bills, banning exploitative zero hours contracts, making work pay, ending no-fault evictions and creating more good jobs right across the country.”
In the marginal seat of North East Fife in this election, it is not a straight fight between red and blue, but shades of yellow too.
In 2017, the SNP won here by just two votes ahead of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. That astonishing two-vote tipping point made it the UK’s most marginal seat at the time.
But in 2019, the Lib Dems won it from the SNP, giving the party one of its four MPs in Scotland.
Today, Lib Dem posters line the winding road that takes you to Anstruther’s waterfront.
It’s a charming fishing village and overlooking the harbour are quaint restaurants and gift shops – handmade soap, whisky and fresh fish – it’s all on offer.
With this allure comes a melee of tourists who join us as we hop to each business, talking to them about how the campaigns have resonated with them here.
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“The tourists are a big part of this area for us,” says Tom Cooper, who’s owned his whisky gift shop for over six years.
Whisky shop owner Tom Cooper wants the main parties to offer more help to small businesses
He’s even had a few celebrities pop by.
“We get up to eight to nine tourist buses each day in the summer, if we didn’t have that, we wouldn’t survive,” he adds.
He loves having them dropped off outside his door, but the tourist season isn’t long enough to make the off-season easier.
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“When it’s very, very quiet, you’re talking maybe four months of the year with maybe a six or seven hours a day, that you’re not doing very much. And you can’t really drag people in the door.
“We need to bring people in. The villages needs money. You know, that’s that’s where the economy lies, I think, in the future.”
And when at the ballot box, Tom says it’ll be his shop at the forefront of his mind.
“I look for somebody that’s going to help businesses like myself, small businesses, and keep the high streets going, get people out,” he says.
This is one of the constituencies to have had its boundary lines redrawn.
Changes have now led to areas with higher levels of deprivation being added to the North East Fife seat.
Away from the picturesque coastline, further inland there are signs of a lack of investment and care.
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Glenrothes shopping centre stands partially derelict.
“That’s been like that for about six years,” someone comments, as we look on at the peeling sides of a building and faded shop signage.
This constituency has one of the highest levels of child poverty.
“People are struggling, there are a lot of people not in work,” Chris Lewis, a business owner, tells us.
Chris runs an ice cream parlour, fish and chip bar and waterfront restaurant.
Chris Lewis believes politicians have broken their past promises
“Employment is what I care about, we need to lift people back to work on a decent wage,” he says.
“I would like to see everybody getting a job, then everybody could work hard and get people off benefits.”
Chris says he has been burnt by past promises.
“This area – whether Lib Dem and SNP – to me it seems they never seem to deliver.”
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Chris adds: “There’s just so many promises and you think, you’ve had your time, can someone else do more for the country. We’re a very tourist-heavy area and we can’t afford to lose that. If Scotland loses its attraction, you know, we failed.”
The national narrative and the polls are having an impact on how he is feeling.
“I never thought I’d say it, but Labour are coming to mind, I think they’re going to do more for the country than the others.
“But who do you believe? There’s always promises. And when it comes down to how many are delivered, usually very few.”
We’ve met those across this constituency who intend to back Reform, SNP and Labour throughout the day.
A sign that even the most seemingly straightforward of seats is all to play for.
The list of candidates standing in North East Fife are:
- Conservatives – Bill Bowman
- Liberal Democrats – Wendy Chamberlain
- Labour Party – Jennifer Gallagher
- SNP – Stefan Hoggan-Radu
- Scottish Green Party – Morven Ovenstone-Jones
- Reform UK – Matthew Wren
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