Thamel: It’s a new day for college sports, but the future remains unclear
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Pete Thamel, ESPN
Nothing is easy in college sports.
And with the Power 5 conferences and NCAA board of governors voting Thursday to accept the settlement of three antitrust cases that create a new structure for the sport, the moment is layered in both historic change and looming ambiguity.
The more than $2.7 billion of back damages and a new revenue-sharing model that come with the settlement of House v. NCAA and two related antitrust cases mark a distinct pivot for college sports. Amateurism, long a fragile and fleeting notion in the billion-dollar college sports industry, is officially dead. College sports, long a fractured group of fiefdoms, came together in an attempt to save themselves, with the jarring sight of five power leagues and the NCAA together on a press release.
This is a necessary and important week for the business of college athletics, yet not a celebratory one for its leaders. It’s a promising day for future athletes who are being compensated with revenue sharing expected to be more than $20 million per school.
And it’s also a confusing week for the coaches and leaders on campus, who have no idea what the specific rules of engagement are moving forward.
There should be no trips to the chiropractor from self-congratulatory back pats for taking this step, as the business of college sports will remain messy. No one should be cheered for paying billions just to avoid paying additional billions.
The peace that NCAA and conference leaders hope they are purchasing with their billions in settlement money is seemingly tentative. While the settlement will make it harder for plaintiff attorneys to wield the threat of billion-dollar damages in the future, athletes will have options to keep challenging any restriction or cap on how they are paid. As the final yes votes were being collected this week, a separate federal case in Colorado — Fontenot v. NCAA — continued to march forward on its own track, leaving open the possibility that NCAA lawyers won’t have time to catch their breath before fighting the next battle on capping athlete compensation.
The games on the fields and arenas of college sports remain wonderful, the television ratings in college football and the NCAA tournament for men’s and women’s basketball are all gangbusters. And the NCAA, behind decisive leadership from president Charlie Baker, appears to have bought increased relevance in the coming years by finding enough consensus to avoid a catastrophic financial loss from yet another court decision going against it.
But the reality of the culmination of votes on Thursday, which still need the approval of Judge Claudia Wilken, is that college leaders took the best bad option. Pay billions now and share the revenue or, lawyers predicted, lose a series of lawsuits, declare bankruptcy and start over.
How we got here is simple. As college sports roared from regional passion to national obsession through the 1990s and this century, NCAA leaders and college presidents clung to a business model that didn’t pay the talent. (The coaches, not coincidentally, were compensated at significant levels because the players never commanded a salary.)
Just three years ago, the NCAA fought the notion of paying athletes a now-quaint $6,000 in academic-based awards all the way to the Supreme Court. So it’s hard to overstate just how drastic the tenor change is surrounding college sports.
Somewhere along the way, as conference television networks formed, commissioner salaries boomed to $5 million a year — for former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott, of all people — and the television contracts rivaled professional sports’, there was never a way to directly cut in the athletes. Until this week.
So what does this mean for college sports when revenue sharing comes as early as fall 2025? Where does this take us?
We’ve outlined the lingering questions that will need to be hammered out. Most of the decisions to this point have been guided by the NCAA, lawyers and commissioners, and there will be a point when the actual participants in the weeds of the sports — the athletic directors and coaches — have a voice in the process. Or at least they hope to.
Along with making it less financially appealing for plaintiff attorneys to challenge the NCAA in antitrust cases, college leaders are also hoping they can lay their new settlement at the feet of Congress as a show of good faith. In turn, they hope to spur some momentum for a federal law that gives them increased protection from lawsuits in the future. However, there are no guarantees the settlement will shake loose any votes on Capitol Hill, which has thus far been stagnant on NCAA-related legislation and will have most of its time occupied by November’s election.
Without help from Congress, it will remain a bumpy road for the NCAA to enforce the kinds of rules it thinks are necessary to restore stability to college sports.
How does Title IX factor into the financial calculus? That looms as the biggest campus worry. How will rosters be constructed? Football coaches who have 130 players on their team — 85 scholarships and 45 walk-ons — are wondering if they need to cut a third of the roster with the expected inclusion of roster caps.
“This all is well intended, but I’ll believe it when I see it,” an industry source told ESPN. “There are three big issues looming that will determine how this goes: The Title IX strategy for the implementation of revenue distribution, enforcement issues surrounding residual NIL and how roster caps work.”
If NIL remains outside athletic departments, as expected, who will police it? The NCAA’s enforcement track record is nearly as poor as its legal record. Could there be someone — perhaps a magistrate or special master appointed by Judge Wilken — who is an arbiter of the interpretations of the settlement?
“You are going to need a new group to handle enforcement of NIL,” another industry source said. “Not the NCAA, because the system is going to be completely different. An entity that looks like the NFL or NBA league office, because the issues that matter are different from the previous regulatory focus at the NCAA. It was all about amateurism. Now it’s going to be much different, you effectively have a salary cap.”
The problem with policing NIL is that separating deals based on endorsements from those that are thinly veiled payments for performance remains just as much of a subjective process as it has been during the past three years. It’s unclear how any settlement terms will provide the tools schools need to shut down a thriving NIL market that is outside their direct control.
Athletic directors are facing the most significant decisions of their careers — how do they find the money and slice it up? The only certainty is there will be unhappiness on campus, as the value of teams to their administrators will now include a dollar sign.
And that will come with much consternation, including the potential cutting of Olympic sports to help fund the roster of financial bell cows.
Be ready for a few months of ambiguity, as formal federal approval looms and then the real work of hammering out the details will begin.
Those are the questions being asked today by just about everyone in the industry. Coaches don’t know how to recruit the Class of 2025, as the recruiting rules — right down to how many players can be on the roster — have yet to be determined.
Football players will go on official visits this month prior to their senior seasons and not know what to expect. Schools won’t even know basic details like roster spots and available money.
So while history will come with the expected formalization of this settlement, the immediate future of what this looks like remains unclear. Which is fitting, as fixing decades of issues was always going to be a slog.
Because it remains true that nothing is ever easy in college sports.
Each of the teams in the Eastern Conference playoff mix has 15 to 17 games remaining in the regular season.
Three teams in the Atlantic Division have all but clinched their spots — the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning — and two from the Metro are essentially shoo-ins, the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes. The New Jersey Devils are knocking on that door, and a current three-game winning streak certainly helps.
The Ottawa Senators have opened up a nice gap as the first wild card, with 75 points and 26 regulation wins in 65 games. Beyond them, things get interesting.
The Columbus Blue Jackets technically are in the second wild-card spot thanks to getting to 70 points in fewer games played (65) than the New York Rangers (66). The Montreal Canadiens (69 points) are right behind them, followed by the Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins, both with 68 points.
If it comes down to the regulation-wins tiebreaker at season’s end, the Rangers have an upper hand over all the rest, with 29 in that column, compared with 23 for the Jackets, Red Wings and Bruins, and just 22 for the Habs.
Four of the five teams are in action Saturday:
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The Bruins host the Lightning at 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
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The Canadiens host the Panthers also at 7 p.m. (NHL Network)
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The Blue Jackets face the visiting Rangers also at 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
And if they have their sights set on catching the Senators, these clubs are all rooting for the Maple Leafs, who host Ottawa (7 p.m., ESPN+). It’s a great night for multiple streaming devices!
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Calgary Flames
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Saturday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres, 12:30 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins, 3 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks, 5 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings, 8 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.
Friday’s scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 1 (OT)
Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 1
Colorado Avalanche 4, Calgary Flames 2
Anaheim Ducks 2, Nashville Predators 1
Seattle Kraken 4, Utah Hockey Club 2
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 99.7
Next game: @ BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 94.6
Next game: @ TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 98.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: vs. FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 10%
Tragic number: 34
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: vs. VGK (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 11.1%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 8%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 71.8
Next game: vs. VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 23
Metro Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 104.4
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 95.5
Next game: @ PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 97.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 88.3
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 19.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 87.0
Next game: @ CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 41%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. FLA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 12.7%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 78.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1.7%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 77.2
Next game: vs. NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.6%
Tragic number: 23
Central Division
Points: 96
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 117.5
Next game: @ SEA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 108.5
Next game: @ COL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: vs. DAL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 98.2
Next game: vs. STL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 94.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 22.7%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 31.8%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 71.9
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 60.9
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 11
Pacific Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107.2
Next game: @ BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 99.4
Next game: @ NYR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 101.2
Next game: vs. NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 89.6
Next game: @ TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 29.2%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 89.6
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 22.9%
Tragic number: 35
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 80.8
Next game: @ STL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 75.9
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 55.1
Next game: vs. WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 29
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
The Texas Rangers‘ pitching staff took another hit Friday, when right-hander Jon Gray suffered a right wrist fracture.
Gray was struck by a line drive from Colorado Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia to lead off the fourth inning that knocked him out of the game.
“Not good news, not good news,” manager Bruce Bochy told reporters. “It’s terrible. I feel awful for him, to be this close to getting the season going. It’s just not good news. I’ll get back in there and find out more, but right now, there is a fracture.”
Gray’s injury is the third setback for the Rangers rotation this week. The team said Thursday that left-hander Cody Bradford would start the season on the injured list because of soreness in his throwing elbow. Tyler Mahle had been scratched from a start with forearm soreness, but the right-hander returned to pitch in a minor league game Thursday.
Gray went 5-6 with a 4.47 ERA in 23 appearances (19 starts) for the Rangers last season, when he was shut down in September for a foot injury that required surgery. He is in the final year of a four-year, $56 million deal.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
TOKYO — Japanese star Shohei Ohtani showed off some prodigious power in his return to the Tokyo Dome on Saturday night.
In an exhibition game against the Yomiuri Giants, the three-time Most Valuable Player belted a long two-run homer to right field in the third inning to give the Dodgers a 4-0 lead, setting off a roar from the roughly 42,000 fans in attendance.
The Dodgers put on quite a power display in the third with Michael Conforto, Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández all going deep to give Los Angeles a 5-0 advantage.
The Dodgers are playing in Japan as part of the Tokyo Series. The team is playing two exhibition games against Japanese teams before starting the regular season with two games against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to have at least 50 homers and 50 stolen bases in one season in 2024. He played several seasons for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan before coming to the U.S. in 2018 with the Los Angeles Angels.
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