Thamel: It’s a new day for college sports, but the future remains unclear
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Pete Thamel, ESPN
Nothing is easy in college sports.
And with the Power 5 conferences and NCAA board of governors voting Thursday to accept the settlement of three antitrust cases that create a new structure for the sport, the moment is layered in both historic change and looming ambiguity.
The more than $2.7 billion of back damages and a new revenue-sharing model that come with the settlement of House v. NCAA and two related antitrust cases mark a distinct pivot for college sports. Amateurism, long a fragile and fleeting notion in the billion-dollar college sports industry, is officially dead. College sports, long a fractured group of fiefdoms, came together in an attempt to save themselves, with the jarring sight of five power leagues and the NCAA together on a press release.
This is a necessary and important week for the business of college athletics, yet not a celebratory one for its leaders. It’s a promising day for future athletes who are being compensated with revenue sharing expected to be more than $20 million per school.
And it’s also a confusing week for the coaches and leaders on campus, who have no idea what the specific rules of engagement are moving forward.
There should be no trips to the chiropractor from self-congratulatory back pats for taking this step, as the business of college sports will remain messy. No one should be cheered for paying billions just to avoid paying additional billions.
The peace that NCAA and conference leaders hope they are purchasing with their billions in settlement money is seemingly tentative. While the settlement will make it harder for plaintiff attorneys to wield the threat of billion-dollar damages in the future, athletes will have options to keep challenging any restriction or cap on how they are paid. As the final yes votes were being collected this week, a separate federal case in Colorado — Fontenot v. NCAA — continued to march forward on its own track, leaving open the possibility that NCAA lawyers won’t have time to catch their breath before fighting the next battle on capping athlete compensation.
The games on the fields and arenas of college sports remain wonderful, the television ratings in college football and the NCAA tournament for men’s and women’s basketball are all gangbusters. And the NCAA, behind decisive leadership from president Charlie Baker, appears to have bought increased relevance in the coming years by finding enough consensus to avoid a catastrophic financial loss from yet another court decision going against it.
But the reality of the culmination of votes on Thursday, which still need the approval of Judge Claudia Wilken, is that college leaders took the best bad option. Pay billions now and share the revenue or, lawyers predicted, lose a series of lawsuits, declare bankruptcy and start over.
How we got here is simple. As college sports roared from regional passion to national obsession through the 1990s and this century, NCAA leaders and college presidents clung to a business model that didn’t pay the talent. (The coaches, not coincidentally, were compensated at significant levels because the players never commanded a salary.)
Just three years ago, the NCAA fought the notion of paying athletes a now-quaint $6,000 in academic-based awards all the way to the Supreme Court. So it’s hard to overstate just how drastic the tenor change is surrounding college sports.
Somewhere along the way, as conference television networks formed, commissioner salaries boomed to $5 million a year — for former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott, of all people — and the television contracts rivaled professional sports’, there was never a way to directly cut in the athletes. Until this week.
So what does this mean for college sports when revenue sharing comes as early as fall 2025? Where does this take us?
We’ve outlined the lingering questions that will need to be hammered out. Most of the decisions to this point have been guided by the NCAA, lawyers and commissioners, and there will be a point when the actual participants in the weeds of the sports — the athletic directors and coaches — have a voice in the process. Or at least they hope to.
Along with making it less financially appealing for plaintiff attorneys to challenge the NCAA in antitrust cases, college leaders are also hoping they can lay their new settlement at the feet of Congress as a show of good faith. In turn, they hope to spur some momentum for a federal law that gives them increased protection from lawsuits in the future. However, there are no guarantees the settlement will shake loose any votes on Capitol Hill, which has thus far been stagnant on NCAA-related legislation and will have most of its time occupied by November’s election.
Without help from Congress, it will remain a bumpy road for the NCAA to enforce the kinds of rules it thinks are necessary to restore stability to college sports.
How does Title IX factor into the financial calculus? That looms as the biggest campus worry. How will rosters be constructed? Football coaches who have 130 players on their team — 85 scholarships and 45 walk-ons — are wondering if they need to cut a third of the roster with the expected inclusion of roster caps.
“This all is well intended, but I’ll believe it when I see it,” an industry source told ESPN. “There are three big issues looming that will determine how this goes: The Title IX strategy for the implementation of revenue distribution, enforcement issues surrounding residual NIL and how roster caps work.”
If NIL remains outside athletic departments, as expected, who will police it? The NCAA’s enforcement track record is nearly as poor as its legal record. Could there be someone — perhaps a magistrate or special master appointed by Judge Wilken — who is an arbiter of the interpretations of the settlement?
“You are going to need a new group to handle enforcement of NIL,” another industry source said. “Not the NCAA, because the system is going to be completely different. An entity that looks like the NFL or NBA league office, because the issues that matter are different from the previous regulatory focus at the NCAA. It was all about amateurism. Now it’s going to be much different, you effectively have a salary cap.”
The problem with policing NIL is that separating deals based on endorsements from those that are thinly veiled payments for performance remains just as much of a subjective process as it has been during the past three years. It’s unclear how any settlement terms will provide the tools schools need to shut down a thriving NIL market that is outside their direct control.
Athletic directors are facing the most significant decisions of their careers — how do they find the money and slice it up? The only certainty is there will be unhappiness on campus, as the value of teams to their administrators will now include a dollar sign.
And that will come with much consternation, including the potential cutting of Olympic sports to help fund the roster of financial bell cows.
Be ready for a few months of ambiguity, as formal federal approval looms and then the real work of hammering out the details will begin.
Those are the questions being asked today by just about everyone in the industry. Coaches don’t know how to recruit the Class of 2025, as the recruiting rules — right down to how many players can be on the roster — have yet to be determined.
Football players will go on official visits this month prior to their senior seasons and not know what to expect. Schools won’t even know basic details like roster spots and available money.
So while history will come with the expected formalization of this settlement, the immediate future of what this looks like remains unclear. Which is fitting, as fixing decades of issues was always going to be a slog.
Because it remains true that nothing is ever easy in college sports.
We’re back! It’s the race that stops the nation and, in 2025, it’s shaping to be another classic. Vauban returns for a third attempt under a new camp, alongside former stablemate Absurde. Champion trainer Chris Waller dominates the field with five runners, while history will be made with the first-ever American-trained horse taking part. Half Yours is the favourite and will fly the flag for the locals.
But outside of that, there are plenty more races to sink your teeth into. Not sure who to back? Not to worry, as we take you through the best selections and some value runners in Tuesday’s 10-race card at the glorious Flemington racecourse.
TAB fixed odds correct as of 9am AEDT, 3rd November, 2025 (please visit tab.com.au for the latest).
RACE 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000m), 10:45am
With only three of the 14 runners having race experience and the track set to be rain-affected, this is a tough way to kick off Cup Day. On exposed form, Tornado Valley was held up at a key stage in the Debutant Stakes but hit the line strongly once clear behind Free Flying. Among the unraced brigade, Carnevale and Diameter have shown glimpses in jump outs and could be anything on debut, while Brazen Dechambeau displayed a nice turn of foot when asked for an effort in his Cranbourne jumpout.
Top selections:
2. Tornado Valley ($7.00)
3. Brazen Dechambeau ($7.00)
5. Diameter ($6.00)
4. Carnevale ($4.80)
8. Free Flying ($11.00)
RACE 2 – MA Services Grand Handicap (2000m), 11:20am
It’s hard to go past Makdane, who’s in good form, maps nicely from barrier 1, and should handle the soft ground. Brave Miss will make her own luck up on speed, her last-start win at Cranbourne looks strong, and she finished third behind She’s A Hustler prior to that, who franked the form with a Group 3 Tesio Stakes win on Cox Plate Day. Party Crasher can be forgiven for the first-up run and I expect him to improve rising in distance second-up.
Top selections:
3. Makdane ($3.90)
7. Brave Miss ($6.50)
10. Party Crasher ($7.00)
14. Giggenbach ($7.50)
RACE 3 – TAB Trophy (1800m), 12:00pm
There looks to be a fair bit of value here. I’ve got Snitz Sonic on top, he’s been the strongest late in both of his runs and couldn’t have been more emphatic in his Echuca win. Arabian Prince was unlucky not to get a start in the 2500m Victoria Derby but will instead race at 1800m, he did seem to peak on his run late in the Caulfield Classic but profiles to be a contender here. Champagne Hero and Different Gravy both look like they have a bit to offer, and Island Boy looks a sneaky chance at big odds.
Top selections:
8. Snitz Sonic ($11.00)
9. Arabian Prince ($3.80)
3. Champagne Hero ($4.60)
4. Different Gravy ($4.60)
6. Island Boy ($41.00)
READ: 2025 Melbourne Cup field – complete guide
RACE 4 – The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m), 12:40pm
Bold Secret is having his third start for Phillip Stokes and looks to have plenty of upside. He was strong late off a slow tempo on debut, clocking the fastest final 200m of the race, before enduring a tough run wide without cover at The Valley. Drawn to get a softer run this time. Pallaton has been tackling stronger company than this, gets James McDonald on, and is a clear danger. As it Street Artist who is flying with consecutive wins for Team Freedman and warrants respect again.
Top selections:
9. Bold Secret ($9.00)
4. Street Artist ($4.40)
2. Pallaton ($2.70)
1. Aleppo Pine ($7.50)
RACE 5 – Australian Heritage Cup (2800m), 1:20pm
Golden Century looks ready to step up to 2800m and he’s a big-striding horse who will appreciate the big Flemington track over the tighter Caulfield circuit, where he was back in the field but closed off well last time out. Drops sharply in weight from that and looks a major player with Joao Moreira aboard. Don Diego De Vega was solid hitting the line for fourth in the Bendigo Cup, and while his Randwick run prior was below par, he hasn’t been suited by the slow tempos in recent starts. Draws kindly and handles soft ground.
Top selections:
10. Golden Century ($4.80)
3. Don Diego De Vega ($8.50)
9. Litzdeel ($4.40)
8. Arugamama ($6.50)
RACE 6 – Kirin Ichiban Plate (1800m), 1:55pm
Saint George was the eye-catcher first-up at Seymour and looks set to take big improvement from that run. The long Flemington straight plays perfectly to his strengths and, at his best, he’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Apulia was outstanding resuming after a year off, storming home from the back of the field to win and should only be fitter here. Athanatos is in terrific form this prep and his Toorak Handicap effort behind the likes of Leica Lucy, Evaporate, and Transatlantic reads well for this grade. The only query is how he handles the likely wet track.
Top selections:
5. Saint George ($4.40)
2. Apulia ($6.50)
6. Athanatos ($5.00)
3. Kingswood ($4.60)
RACE 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3:00pm
Once again, the Caulfield Cup looms as the key form reference, and it’s a race that produced several eye-catching performances. You couldn’t miss the big grey Presage Nocturne charging down the outside there. The French import is certain to improve off that run and should relish the step to 3200m at Flemington. He handles rain-affected ground, and while others may feel the pinch late, he’s proven to be able to power through the line at the end of a staying trip.
Valiant King was another standout from that race and is absolutely flying this campaign. A completely different horse this prep with the blinkers on, he was brilliant winning the Bart Cummings before unleashing the fastest closing splits in the Caulfield Cup. He gets in with a nice weight and maps for a soft run. As does Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours who deserves favouritism despite being up for a long campaign which began in a BM64 back in March. Tony and Calvin McEvoy have managed him superbly and set him to peak in the 2400m race so as much as the Melbourne Cup appears a bit of an afterthought, his wet-track ability, light weight and good draw makes him a winning chance again. Absurde returns for a third attempt at the Cup and was travelling well before being blocked for a run at his Caulfield tune-up. He was luckless last year when held up multiple times in the straight, but we know he stays, handles soft going, and maps ideally from gate four.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained Al Riffa is this year’s big boom horse. The Irish raider comes off wins in both the Irish St Leger and Curragh Cup and clearly brings elite European form. He’s earned the top weight (59kg) and history says that’s a brutal task, especially over two miles on rain-affected ground from a wide draw, but class can often defy history, and he has that in spades. The main challenge will be conceding weight to several in-form, lightly-weighted rivals.
Lightly-raced northern hemisphere three-year-old Furthur has had just eight starts and beats the handicapper with 52kg. He fits the successful profile of past winners like Rekindling and Cross Counter, as well as desperately-unlucky 2019 runner Il Paradiso. He displayed a devastating turn of foot when winning the Geoffrey Freer Stakes over 2715m two starts back, a race that has been a solid guide for the Melbourne Cup in past years. There’s a wet track query with him but he’s a good enough price to find out if he can handle it.
Buckaroo brings class and proven Group 1 Australian weight-for-age form, but the 3200m remains a genuine query and he’ll need a perfect ride to figure. German stayer Flatten The Curve is an interesting roughie in red-hot form winning six of his past seven races, and while the strength of that form is hard to line up, he’s a genuine two-miler and could surprise at decent odds. And Vauban — now under the care of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott — while plain in the Caulfield Cup, is back on a more suitable Flemington track, gets rain-affected going, has drawn in barrier two with Blake Shinn on, and is more than capable of bouncing back.
Top selections:
6. Presage Nocturne ($9.00)
24. Valiant King ($8.50)
1. Al Riffa ($9.00)
9. Absurde ($18.00)
14. Half Yours ($7.00)
Best roughie:
17. Furthur ($26.00)
READ: 2025 Melbourne Cup field – complete guide
RACE 8 – The Amanda Elliott (1400m), 3:50pm
Ludlum was luckless on debut behind Tres Magnifique before winning a maiden at Seymour, doing it tough three wide without cover but still proving too strong. Navy Pilot was a second-up winner powering past key rival Bacash, and while he didn’t see out the mile in the Caulfield Guineas, the drop back to 1400m looks ideal. Bacash continues to hold his form well, he’s a proven wet tracker and was a dominant winner at this trip last start at Caulfield. Burma Star has won in heavy conditions and has been hitting the line well. This is tougher but he’s right in the mix.
Top selections:
15. Ludlum ($5.00)
2. Navy Pilot ($6.50)
4. Bacash ($5.50)
8. Burma Star ($9.00)
RACE 9 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m), 4:35pm
Surfin’ Bird was an arrogant winner at Caulfield last start, surging past her rivals to win by four lengths despite covering extra ground throughout, and she did it in very quick time. She’s clearly the one to beat and might simply be too good again. Pondalowie looks terrific value though as an each-way play. She’s improved with every run this prep, running the fastest last 200m at Group 2 level third-up before again closing strongly in the Vase behind Oh Too Good. She tends to get back in her races but has a blistering turn of foot and runs well at Flemington.
Top selections:
14. Pondalowie ($17.00)
15. Surfin’ Bird ($2.60)
10. Gumdrops ($7.50)
5. Bossy Nic ($13.00)
RACE 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (1400m), 5:15pm
Sabaj had no luck in the Silver Eagle. He was held up until the 100m and should have finished a lot closer to the classy Linebacker at Randwick. That’s elite form and with clear running he should be too good for these. I do have a of time for Sunshineinmypocket who had excuses last start behind Ndola. He was able to close off well with the fastest final furlong of the race and I think he can turn the tables on the winner.
Top selections:
8. Sabaj ($2.70)
7. Sunshineinmypocket ($7.00)
3. Ndola ($6.00)
12. Persian Spirit ($8.00)
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has a broken right fibula, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel on Sunday, and will sit out the remainder of the season.
Raiola suffered the injury while being sacked and losing a fumble early in the third quarter of Saturday’s 21-17 loss to USC.
After the game, Cornhuskers coach Matt Rhule told reporters that Raiola wanted to return to the game, but the sophomore couldn’t run so Rhule decided it was unsafe to send him back in.
Raiola completed 10 of 15 passes against the Trojans for 91 yards and a touchdown before the injury. He was replaced by true freshman TJ Lateef, who went 5-of-7 for 7 yards and rushed for 18 yards on six carries.
Raiola had completed 72.4% of his passes for 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns through nine games this season. He has been intercepted six times.
The Huskers (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) lost their 29th consecutive game to an AP Top 25 opponent, a streak that dates to 2016. They will go on the road to face UCLA next Saturday.
ESPN’s Max Olson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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