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The oldest president in American history has a problem with the nations youngest voters.
Support from voters under 30 has powered every Democratic presidential victory for the past half century; Joe Biden carried the demographic by 24 points in 2020, his biggest margin of any age group. But according to several recent surveys, the presidents support among young voters has plummeted. Polls covering six swing states released last week by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found Biden losing to Donald Trump (though within the margin of error) among voters under 30. The two men were effectively tied in this months national poll from Fox News.
These results have prompted a mix of panic and disbelief among many Democrats, who see little chance of a Biden victory if he cant win back one of the partys core constituencies. Yet analysts who study the youth vote say the presidents standing with this key group isnt nearly as bad as Democrats tend to think, and they attribute many of the struggles he is having to an underappreciated finding: Most first-time voters know surprisingly little about Trump. The most targeted data suggest that Biden maintains a double-digit lead over Trump among voters ages 18 to 29. Its smaller than it was four years ago, but experts say Biden has a good opportunity to run it up.
Surveys that specifically poll voters under 30as opposed to those in which young people are merely a subset of respondentsshow Biden leading Trump by double digits. In the Harvard Youth Poll, a biennial survey considered the gold standard for measuring young voters, Biden led Trump by 13 points among registered voters. That advantage was virtually identical to the margin found in surveys (one national and one across several battleground states) commissioned this spring by Voters of Tomorrow and NextGen America, a pair of Democrat-aligned groups who are targeting the youth vote, according to summaries they shared with me. Pollsters place more trust in these findings because they sample a larger number of young peopleand therefore have a smaller margin of errorthan the surveys that have shown less favorable results for Biden.
Read: The real youth-vote shift to watch
Still, those margins arent close to what they were in 2020. Biden is polling worst with 18-to-22-year-olds, most of whom were children when Trump was president. In polls and focus groups, this cohort demonstrated little awareness of the major controversies of Trumps term. They didnt fully know who Donald Trump was, Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez, NextGen Americas president, told me. Some of them were 10 years old when he was first elected. And if they had good parents, they were probably shielded from the images of crying babies being ripped from their mothers at the border, or from the sight of Heather Heyer being run over by white supremacists in Charlottesville.
In polling conducted by Blueprint, a Democratic data firm, fewer than half of registered voters under 30 said they had heard some of Trumps most incendiary quotes, such as when he said there were very fine people on both sides demonstrating in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or when he told members of the Proud Boys, the far-right militia group, to stand back and stand by during a 2020 debate. Just 42 percent of respondents were aware that, during his 2016 campaign, Trump called for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.
The youngest voters know Trump more as a ribald commentator than as a political leader. Santiago Mayer, the 22year-old founder of the Gen Z group Voters of Tomorrow, which has endorsed Biden, told me that his 18-year-old brother and his friends see Trump as more funny than threatening. They dont know much about Donald Trumps agenda, and Donald Trump is an entertaining character, Mayer said. They are gravitating toward him not because of their political beliefs but out of sheer curiosity.
A related problem for Biden is that young voters dont know much about what hes done, either. The president has kept a lower profile than his two predecessors, and young people as a group arent as civically engaged as older Americans. As a result, pollsters have found that young voters are less aware of Bidens accomplishments, even on issues that they say are important to them. Many of them dont know, for example, that he signed the largest climate bill in history (the Inflation Reduction Act) or the most significant change to gun laws in decades (the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act), or that he has forgiven about $160 billion in student debt. The more they pay attention, the more they approve of and are likely to vote for Biden, John Della Volpe, the director of polling at Harvards Institute of Politics, told me. The biggest challenge for Biden, he said, is that an overwhelming number of young people do not appreciate the degree to which hes delivered on promises he made in 2020. I hear that in every single city.
Other factors are driving the disconnect between Biden and young voters as well. When Blueprint asked young voters what concerned them most about a potential second Biden term, their top worry was that hed be too old for the job. Next on the list, however, was inflation. People in early adulthood are also less economically stable than their older peers and more sensitive to costs. So although campus protests over Israels military campaign in Gaza have dominated headlines, polls show that inflation is a much bigger drag on Bidens support among young voters, and a more significant issue for them than for older people. Young voters just think that Biden doesn’t have his eye on the ball economically when it comes to inflation, Evan Roth Smith, Blueprints lead pollster, told me. It is surprising but not inexplicable that voters under 30 associate lower price points with Donald Trump. But they do, because its just a hard fact that prices were lower and the rate of inflation was lower when Donald Trump was president.
Read: Bidens weakness with young voters isnt about Gaza
I think people would forgive age if they felt that Biden could bring prices down, Smith added.
Still, Biden has advantages over Trump that could help him win back young voters by November. Voters under 30 have retreated from both parties and are more likely to register as independents than in the past. But they remain more progressive than the electorate as a whole, and in recent polls they align much closer with Biden on the issues than with Trump. In 2022, Tzintzn Ramirez said, young voters expressed antipathy toward the Democratic Party in polling but ended up backing Democratic candidates in the midterms. She and other analysts see a similar dynamic at play now, where young voters are telling pollsters theyre undecided or registering support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates as a protest against both Biden and Trump. Surveys show this to be especially true for young men and voters of color, many of whom have soured on Biden. But support for third-party alternatives typically drops as the election nears. Young voters also tend to make their choice later in the campaign.
Perhaps the best data point for Biden is that hes hardly worse off among young voters than President Barack Obama was at this point in his 2012 reelection bid. Like Biden, Obama won big among voters under 30 during his first presidential victory but struggled to communicate his record to them. Della Volpe told me that in Harvards polling, Obama had the same 13-point advantage over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the spring of 2012 that Biden has over Trump now. He would nearly double that margin by the fall, thanks in large part to an aggressive ad campaign that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor and businessman as an out-of-touch and greedy financier.
Donald Trump would seem to need no introduction to votersexcept, that is, to those who were too young or tuned out to fully remember his presidency. Givig them a well-funded history lesson could be Bidens best hope for a second term.
One of France’s most successful actors has been accused of sexually assaulting two women on the set of one of his films.
Gerard Depardieu, 76, has starred in more than 200 films over five decades, winning two best lead actor awards at the Cesars, as well as being nominated for an Oscar and 15 other Cesars.
On Tuesday, judges at the Tribunal de Paris are expected to reveal whether he has been found guilty of the two counts of sexual assault alleged to have happened in 2021, both of which he denies.
If convicted, he faces up to five years in prison or a fine of€75,000 (£62,000).
While the #MeToo movement ultimately led to the downfall of Hollywood film director Harvey Weinstein in the US, France’s #balancestonporc equivalent has struggled to gain momentum.
But Depardieu’s court case, coming soon after that of Gisele Pelicot, who waived her anonymity to reveal her husband had orchestrated her drugging and rape by more than 50 men, is proof for many that France is finally getting its own #MeToo moment.
Here, Sky News looks at the case – and what it means for women’s rights in France.
Image: Gerard Depardieu arrives at court. Pic Reuters
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Depardieu arrives for sexual assault trial.
What is he accused of?
Depardieu is accused of sexually assaulting two female crew members on the set of the film Les Volets Verts (Green Shutters) in 2021.
The anonymous women both claim the actor forced himself on them on multiple occasions, touching them over their clothes, the court was told.
Image: Pic Reuters
The first woman said in one incident, as she passed him in a corridor he grabbed her, pinned her down between his legs and rubbed himself against her waist, hips, and chest, making accompanying gestures and lewd comments.
The other woman claimed he touched her buttocks in public on more than one occasion, as well as touching her chest.
Depardieu denies the allegations and appeared in person at the Tribunal de Paris, telling the court: “I’ve always been told I have a Russian nature, I don’t know if it’s because of the drinking or the vulgarity.”
But he added: “I’m not touching the butts of women.”
One of the alleged victims claimed he behaved “like a madman” who took “pleasure in frightening me”.
Depardieu responded: “I understand perfectly if she’s a bit upset. I am capable of trash talk… I don’t have to talk like that, get angry like that, voila.”
He also claimed that he had been in a “bad mood” because the set was hot, which was difficult for him, being overweight.
The trial was due to start in October but was postponed until March after Depardieu’s legal team asked for a six-month delay due to his poor health. Suffering complications from diabetes and high blood pressure, they said he was unable to sit for long periods.
Image: In Cannes in 1997. Pic: Reuters
Separately, he also remains under investigation for the alleged rape and sexual assault of a 22-year-old actress. The woman claims Depardieu sexually assaulted her twice at his home.
She originally reported the alleged incidents in 2018 but the charges were dropped in 2019 following a nine-month investigation.
However, the case was reopened in October 2020 when the woman refiled the complaint.
In March 2022, Depardieu’s bid to get the case thrown out was rejected by Paris’s court of appeal, with authorities saying he would remain under investigation until the matter is either sent to trial or dismissed. He denies the allegations.
In April 2023, investigative French media outlet Mediapart reported claims of 13 women who said Depardieu sexually assaulted or harassed them between 2004 and 2022.
In an open letter in the newspaper Le Figaro that October, Depardieu said he had “never abused a woman”.
A group of 50 French stars, including singer and wife of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy Carla Bruni, wrote their own open letter defending him in Le Monde, condemning what they described as his “lynching” and describing him as “probably the greatest” French actor.
A week later, President Emmanuel Macron condemned the “manhunt” for Depardieu, calling him an “immense actor” who “makes France proud”.
Image: A women’s rights activist during a protest in January 2024 in Paris. Pic: AP
Who is Gerard Depardieu?
Depardieu was born in Chateauroux, central France in 1948. He left home at the age of 16 for Paris, where he got his first acting job with a travelling theatre company.
After a few minor film roles, his break came in 1973 with a lead part in Bertrand Blier’s film Les Valseuses (Going Places) – alongside his former theatre friends Patrick Dewaere and Miou Miou.
From there his popularity boomed and he became one of the most prolific French actors of the 1980s and 1990s.
He won awards for his roles in The Last Metro and Cyrano de Bergerac, which also received an Oscar nomination. He was made president of the Cannes Film Festival jury in 1992.
His success also saw him become a Chevalier of France’s Legion d’Honneur and its Ordre national du Merite – two of the country’s most prestigious honours.
Image: Former French President Jacques Chevalier awards Depardieu the Chevallier de la Legion d’Honneur at the Elysee Palace in 1996. Pic: Reuters
Across roughly 250 films, he has worked with more than 150 directors, including Jean-Luc Godard and Ridley Scott.
He became close friends with Robert De Niro after they starred together in Bernardo Bertolucci’s film 1900 in 1976.
Depardieu married fellow actor Elisabeth Depardieu in 1971. She starred alongside him in Jean de Florette and Manon Of The Spring in 1986. They had two children, who both became actors. Their son Guillaume died from pneumonia aged 37 in 2008. The couple divorced in 1996.
He announced his retirement from acting in 2005, claiming he had made “enough” films and wished to pursue other things.
In 2012 he moved to Belgium to avoid paying taxes in France. He wrote an open letter to the then prime minister, saying he was surrendering his French passport because he wanted “nothing to do” with his home country and the government was trying to “punish success”.
Image: With Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi in 2013. Pic: AP
Vladimir Putin personally signed an executive order to give him Russian citizenship in 2013. Two years later his films were banned in Ukraine over comments he made questioning the country’s sovereignty as an independent state. He has since condemned Russia’s war there.
He also claims to have been given citizenship by the United Arab Emirates.
In 2023 he was stripped of his National Order of Quebec after a documentary revealed him making lewd comments and sexual gestures on a trip to North Korea in 2018, which the region’s premier described as “shocking”.
Image: At the Netflix premiere of the series Marseille in the city in 2016. Pic: Reuters
Why is the Depardieu case so important in France?
The #MeToo and #TimesUp movements in the US saw women in the creative industries calling out sexual harassment and assault by their male counterparts.
But it “didn’t really take off in France” in the same way, Sarah McGrath, chief executive of Women For Women France, an organisation fighting against gender-based violence, tells Sky News.
While she saw colleagues around the world “thrilled that victims could finally feel confident to talk about the crimes they’d be subjected to”, she says in France “we had a very different experience”.
In 2018, dozens of female French stars and intellectuals signed an “anti-MeToo manifesto”, condemning the movement as a “witch hunt” and defending men’s sexual freedom to proposition women.
Although some, notably Depardieu’s co-star and friend Catherine Deneuve, have publicly U-turned on the issue, it demonstrated a resistance to change in French society.
Image: With actor and co-star Catherine Deneuve in Cannes in 1984. Pic: AP
Blanche Sabbah, a French feminist activist and comic book author, says: “We love to talk about being the cultural exception in France.
“We have this idea that if you are some kind of artistic genius then you are less accountable for bad behaviour – and that we’re more sexually liberated – and don’t concern ourselves with moral panics like in the US. I think that stopped the [MeToo] movement in its tracks.”
Ms McGrath describes this “cultural exception” as “an attitude that a man’s reputation and livelihood is more important than victims”.
Both women also point to a “general distrust” of claimants and “false ideas” they are bypassing the courts and telling their stories in the media to “get money”.
“It’s simply not true and comes from a lack of understanding that the French justice system does not play a protective role for victims of sexual violence,” she says.
“Victims are actually more likely to come out with debts of thousands of euros if they go through the justice system, which far exceeds any compensation they might get.”
Image: Gisele Pelicot outside court after her husband’s conviction. Pic: Reuters
But while the “balancestonporc” – report your pig – hashtag struggled to gain momentum in 2018, the women say they have seen a shift – particularly following the case of Gisele Pelicot and the conviction of her husband for raping and inviting at least 50 other men to rape her while she was drugged and unconscious.
“It’s taken time, but finally we’re getting somewhere,” Ms Sabbah says. “Gisele’s case serves as a reminder that our culture has a huge influence on how we behave.”
Those found guilty in the Pelicot case were aged between 20 and 70 and included a journalist, nurse, firefighters, and a DJ.
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10:58
Mass rape trial that ignited a movement
“She has proven that this is the problem of every man – that what you think your favourite movie star can do serves as an argument for justifying what crimes you would commit as a ‘normal’ person’,” Ms Sabbah adds.
Regardless of the outcome of the Depardieu case, both women agree that his prosecution represents a “huge step forward” for women’s rights and victims of gender-based violence.
“There have been three or four convictions [of men for gender-based violence] recently, so I think the way those cases are perceived now is different to how it was in 2018,” Ms Sabbah says.
“We have gone from ‘classement sans suite’ (no further action) to movie stars on trial.”
The US and China have agreed to slash trade tariffs on each other, a move Donald Trump has said was part of a “total reset” in relations.
The president said the 90-day truce followed “very friendly” talks between the two sides in Switzerland over the weekend and those discussions would continue..
“China was being hurt very badly. They were closing up factories they were having a lot of unrest and they were very happy to do something with us”, he told reporters at the White House.
The breakthrough was announced early on Monday – to the delight of fincial markets – by the leader of the US delegation, treasury secretary Scott Bessent.
US trade representative Jamieson Greer confirmed so-called reciprocal tariffs were now at 10% each.
In real terms, it meant the US is reducing its 145% tariff to 30% on Chinese goods. A tariff of 20% had been implemented on China when President Donald Trump took office, over what his administration said was a failure to stop illegal drugs entering the US.
China has agreed to reduce its 125% retaliatory tariffs to 10% on US goods.
Tariffs, taxes on imports of more than 100%, had been imposed on both sides. China was the only country exempt from a 90-day pause on the “retaliatory” tariffs above the base 10% levies applied by America.
Major retailers had been warning Mr Trump of empty shelves as US importers pause shipments.
Mr Bessent said after a weekend of negotiations in Switzerland, the countries had a mechanism for continued talks.
It’s the second major trade announcement made by the US in the last week, after a deal was secured with the UK on Thursday.
The move signals a willingness from the Americans to make deals on tariffs.
Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.
There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.
In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner.
That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).
So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.
The news was received positively by Asian stock markets on Monday as major indexes were up.
In China, the Shanghai Composite stock index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up nearly 3%.
In countries across Asia, benchmark stock indexes also rose. Korea’s Kospi grew 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.8%, while India’s Nifty 50 index of most valuable companies gained more than 3%.
US stocks rose sharply at the open.
The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq saw their biggest leaps in more than a month, rising almost 3% and 4% respectively.
The market rally was visible in Europe too.
The dollar – hit in recent weeks by US recession speculation – was up more than a cent versus the pound while oil prices also rallied. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was 3.5% higher at $66 a barrel.
What next?
When asked by journalists about what the US wanted to see from China in the 90s, Mr Bessent said, “As long as there is good faith effort, engagement and constructive dialogue, then we will keep moving forward.”
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2:02
Explained: The US-UK trade deal
The UK came to the front of the line for deals, Mr Bessent added, “as our oldest ally”.
Switzerland had also moved to the “front of the queue”, he said, while the EU has been slower.
As with the other counties subject to 90-day pauses, a permanent deal will need to be reached, but confidence across the world is likely to have been boosted.
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Businesses now need a clear timetable and roadmap for future negotiations under the newly announced economic and trade consultation mechanism, said Andrew Wilson, the deputy secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce.
“The credibility of that process for resolving underlying frictions in the Sino-US economic relationship will be mission-critical in terms of restoring business confidence.”
Nigel Farage has told Sky News he would allow some essential migration in areas with skill shortages but that numbers would be capped.
The Reform UK leader said he would announce the cap “in four years’ time” after he was pressed repeatedly by Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates about his manifesto pledge to freeze “non-essential” immigration.
It was put to Mr Farage that despite his criticism of the government’s migration crackdown, allowing essential migration in his own plans is quite a big caveat given the UK’s skills shortages.
However the Clacton MP said he would allow people to plug the gaps on “time dependent work permits” rather than on longer-term visas.
He said: “Let’s take engineering, for argument’s sake. We don’t train enough engineers, we just don’t. It’s crazy.
“We’ve been pushing young people to doing social sciences degrees or whatever it is.
“So you’re an engineering company, you need somebody to come in on skills. If they come in, on a time dependent work permit, if all the right health assurances and levies have been paid and if at the end of that period of time, you leave or you’re forced to leave, then it works.”
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28:27
‘We need to reduce immigration’
Reform’s manifesto, which they call a “contract”, says that “essential skills, mainly around healthcare, must be the only exception” to migration.
Pressed on how wide his exemption would be, Mr Farage said he hopes enough nurses and doctors will be trained “not to need anybody from overseas within the space of a few years”.
He said that work permits should be separate to immigration, adding: “If you get a job for an American TV station and you stay 48 hours longer than your work permit, they will smash your front door down, put you in handcuffs and deport you.
“We allow all of these routes, whether it’s coming into work, whether it’s coming as a student, we have allowed all of these to become routes for long-term migration.”
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Sky’s Sam Coates questions PM on migration
Asked if he would put a cap on his essential skills exemption, he said: “We will. I can’t tell you the numbers right now, I don’t have all the figures. What I can tell you is anyone that comes in will not be allowed to stay long-term. That’s the difference.”
Pressed if that was a commitment to a cap under a Reform UK government, he suggested he would set out further detail ahead of the next election, telling Coates: “Ask me in four years’ time, all right?”
Mr Farage was speaking after the government published an immigration white paper which pledged to ban overseas care workers as part of a package of measures to bring down net migration.
The former Brexit Party leader claimed the proposals were a “knee jerk reaction” to his party’s success at the local elections and accused the prime minister of not having the vigour to “follow them through”.
However he said he supports the “principle” of banning foreign care workers and conceded he might back some of the measures if they are put to a vote in parliament.
He said: “If it was stuff that did actually bind the government, there might be amendments on this that you would support. But I’m not convinced.”