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The oldest president in American history has a problem with the nations youngest voters.

Support from voters under 30 has powered every Democratic presidential victory for the past half century; Joe Biden carried the demographic by 24 points in 2020, his biggest margin of any age group. But according to several recent surveys, the presidents support among young voters has plummeted. Polls covering six swing states released last week by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found Biden losing to Donald Trump (though within the margin of error) among voters under 30. The two men were effectively tied in this months national poll from Fox News.

These results have prompted a mix of panic and disbelief among many Democrats, who see little chance of a Biden victory if he cant win back one of the partys core constituencies. Yet analysts who study the youth vote say the presidents standing with this key group isnt nearly as bad as Democrats tend to think, and they attribute many of the struggles he is having to an underappreciated finding: Most first-time voters know surprisingly little about Trump. The most targeted data suggest that Biden maintains a double-digit lead over Trump among voters ages 18 to 29. Its smaller than it was four years ago, but experts say Biden has a good opportunity to run it up.

Surveys that specifically poll voters under 30as opposed to those in which young people are merely a subset of respondentsshow Biden leading Trump by double digits. In the Harvard Youth Poll, a biennial survey considered the gold standard for measuring young voters, Biden led Trump by 13 points among registered voters. That advantage was virtually identical to the margin found in surveys (one national and one across several battleground states) commissioned this spring by Voters of Tomorrow and NextGen America, a pair of Democrat-aligned groups who are targeting the youth vote, according to summaries they shared with me. Pollsters place more trust in these findings because they sample a larger number of young peopleand therefore have a smaller margin of errorthan the surveys that have shown less favorable results for Biden.

Read: The real youth-vote shift to watch

Still, those margins arent close to what they were in 2020. Biden is polling worst with 18-to-22-year-olds, most of whom were children when Trump was president. In polls and focus groups, this cohort demonstrated little awareness of the major controversies of Trumps term. They didnt fully know who Donald Trump was, Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez, NextGen Americas president, told me. Some of them were 10 years old when he was first elected. And if they had good parents, they were probably shielded from the images of crying babies being ripped from their mothers at the border, or from the sight of Heather Heyer being run over by white supremacists in Charlottesville.

In polling conducted by Blueprint, a Democratic data firm, fewer than half of registered voters under 30 said they had heard some of Trumps most incendiary quotes, such as when he said there were very fine people on both sides demonstrating in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or when he told members of the Proud Boys, the far-right militia group, to stand back and stand by during a 2020 debate. Just 42 percent of respondents were aware that, during his 2016 campaign, Trump called for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.

The youngest voters know Trump more as a ribald commentator than as a political leader. Santiago Mayer, the 22year-old founder of the Gen Z group Voters of Tomorrow, which has endorsed Biden, told me that his 18-year-old brother and his friends see Trump as more funny than threatening. They dont know much about Donald Trumps agenda, and Donald Trump is an entertaining character, Mayer said. They are gravitating toward him not because of their political beliefs but out of sheer curiosity.

A related problem for Biden is that young voters dont know much about what hes done, either. The president has kept a lower profile than his two predecessors, and young people as a group arent as civically engaged as older Americans. As a result, pollsters have found that young voters are less aware of Bidens accomplishments, even on issues that they say are important to them. Many of them dont know, for example, that he signed the largest climate bill in history (the Inflation Reduction Act) or the most significant change to gun laws in decades (the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act), or that he has forgiven about $160 billion in student debt. The more they pay attention, the more they approve of and are likely to vote for Biden, John Della Volpe, the director of polling at Harvards Institute of Politics, told me. The biggest challenge for Biden, he said, is that an overwhelming number of young people do not appreciate the degree to which hes delivered on promises he made in 2020. I hear that in every single city.

Other factors are driving the disconnect between Biden and young voters as well. When Blueprint asked young voters what concerned them most about a potential second Biden term, their top worry was that hed be too old for the job. Next on the list, however, was inflation. People in early adulthood are also less economically stable than their older peers and more sensitive to costs. So although campus protests over Israels military campaign in Gaza have dominated headlines, polls show that inflation is a much bigger drag on Bidens support among young voters, and a more significant issue for them than for older people. Young voters just think that Biden doesn’t have his eye on the ball economically when it comes to inflation, Evan Roth Smith, Blueprints lead pollster, told me. It is surprising but not inexplicable that voters under 30 associate lower price points with Donald Trump. But they do, because its just a hard fact that prices were lower and the rate of inflation was lower when Donald Trump was president.

Read: Bidens weakness with young voters isnt about Gaza

I think people would forgive age if they felt that Biden could bring prices down, Smith added.

Still, Biden has advantages over Trump that could help him win back young voters by November. Voters under 30 have retreated from both parties and are more likely to register as independents than in the past. But they remain more progressive than the electorate as a whole, and in recent polls they align much closer with Biden on the issues than with Trump. In 2022, Tzintzn Ramirez said, young voters expressed antipathy toward the Democratic Party in polling but ended up backing Democratic candidates in the midterms. She and other analysts see a similar dynamic at play now, where young voters are telling pollsters theyre undecided or registering support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates as a protest against both Biden and Trump. Surveys show this to be especially true for young men and voters of color, many of whom have soured on Biden. But support for third-party alternatives typically drops as the election nears. Young voters also tend to make their choice later in the campaign.

Perhaps the best data point for Biden is that hes hardly worse off among young voters than President Barack Obama was at this point in his 2012 reelection bid. Like Biden, Obama won big among voters under 30 during his first presidential victory but struggled to communicate his record to them. Della Volpe told me that in Harvards polling, Obama had the same 13-point advantage over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the spring of 2012 that Biden has over Trump now. He would nearly double that margin by the fall, thanks in large part to an aggressive ad campaign that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor and businessman as an out-of-touch and greedy financier.

Donald Trump would seem to need no introduction to votersexcept, that is, to those who were too young or tuned out to fully remember his presidency. Givig them a well-funded history lesson could be Bidens best hope for a second term.

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Dune: Prophecy star Olivia Williams says series is the first time she has felt confident her scenes would not be cut

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Dune: Prophecy star Olivia Williams says series is the first time she has felt confident her scenes would not be cut

British actress Olivia Williams has said that in more than 30 years of acting on screen, starring in Dune: Prophecy is the first time she has felt confident her scenes would not be cut from a project.

Williams, who has appeared in films including The Sixth Sense, Rushmore and An Education, and portrayed Camilla Parker Bowles, before she became Queen, in the final two seasons of The Crown, can now be seen in the TV prequel to the blockbuster Denis Villeneuve films.

She stars alongside her close friend Emily Watson, with the pair playing the Harkonnen sisters – two women fighting forces that threaten the future of humankind.

Emily Watson and Olivia Williams in Dune - Prophecy. Pic: Sky Atlantic/ HBO
Image:
Emily Watson and Olivia Williams star together in Dune: Prophecy. Pic: Sky Atlantic/ HBO

Based on the Dune and Sisterhood of Dune novels, the Sky Atlantic show is set 10,000 years before the birth of Timothee Chalamet‘s character, Paul Atreides, in the films, and follows the two women as they found the fabled sisterhood that will later become known as the Bene Gesserit.

Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya in Dune: Part Two. Pic: Warner Bros. Pictures
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The series is a prequel to the Dune films, which star Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya. Pic: Warner Bros. Pictures

Despite knowing each other for 30 years, and even working at the Royal Shakespeare Company (RSC) at the same time, the show marks Williams and Watson’s first time on screen together.

Williams says they are often asked why they have never acted together before. There’s a simple answer, she tells Sky News. “It’s because there are no scripts for two women of the same age to lead a story.

“We’re used to playing the character that can, if the film’s running a bit long, be cut out because you don’t genuinely affect the plot of the show. Well, just try cutting the Harkonnen sisters out of this story!”

She adds: “We knew that our work would be used – which, in 35 years, I’d say is the first time that’s happened.”

Olivia Williams as Reverend Mother Tula Harkonnen in Dune - Prophecy. Pic: HBO/ Sky Atlantic
Image:
Williams plays Sister Tula Harkonnen. Pic: HBO/ Sky Atlantic

In Dune: Prophecy, Watson plays the Mother Superior of the Bene Gesserit Sisters, Valya Harkonnen, whilst Williams plays her younger sibling, Sister Tula Harkonnen.

Watson, who recently starred alongside Oscar winner Cillian Murphy in Small Things Like These, says it feels wonderful to be given the freedom to portray strong, stoic characters.

“When we were first cast, we went and sat in the National Portrait Gallery and sat in front of portraits of Queen Elizabeth I, Mary, Queen of Scots, Bloody Mary, and just thought about that time when those very powerful women were front and centre, and terrified and deeply paranoid because everybody wanted to either marry them or kill them.”

Jodhi May as Empress Natalya Arat Corrino and Mark Strong as Emperor Javicco Corrino in Dune - Prophecy. Pic: Sky Atlantic/ HBO
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Jodhi May and Mark Strong also star. Pic: Sky Atlantic/ HBO

The two actresses first met outside the Black Swan pub in Stratford-upon-Avon when they were starting out in their careers with the nearby RSC.

Williams says it “doesn’t feel real” that their careers have become as successful as they have.

“It is an extraordinary thing that I said I would stop at 30 and go and try to be a lawyer. I didn’t intend to be working as an actor and now I can’t believe my luck.

“You get to the end of every job and you go, was that the last time I will act? And that is a really tough way to, you know, bring up a family and you can’t get a bloody mortgage or life insurance with a lifestyle like that. So anyway, that was my real-life whinge.”

Read more:
Boy George on the price of fame
A crushed car and trouser scraps: From fan club to band

Watson said the experience of leading a big-budget series together was not lost on her, and she felt an onus to help create a positive environment for the younger actors.

“We were like the CEOs and we were making sure that everybody was seen and felt part of something and were feeling okay about how everything was going down. And it felt like a really healthy way to do it.”

Dune: Prophecy is available to watch on Sky Atlantic and Now

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Home secretary to announce extra £500m for neighbourhood policing

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Home secretary to announce extra £500m for neighbourhood policing

An extra £500m of additional funding will be given to neighbourhood policing, the home secretary is set to announce.

Yvette Cooper will also lay out plans for a new unit to improve the performances of police forces across the country to end the “postcode lottery” of how effectively crimes are dealt with.

The Home Office says the unit will directly monitor police performance in areas prioritised by the government, including tackling violence against women and girls and knife crime.

The home secretary will make the announcements in her first major speech at the annual conference of the National Police Chiefs’ Council and Association of Police and Crime Commissioners on Tuesday.

Politics latest: PM branded ‘desperate’ after talks with China’s Xi

Ms Cooper is expected to say: “Public confidence is the bedrock of our British policing model but in recent years it has been badly eroded, as neighbourhood policing has been cut back and as outdated systems and structures have left the police struggling to keep up with a fast-changing criminal landscape.

“That’s why we’re determined to rebuild neighbourhood policing, to improve performance across police forces and to ensure the highest standards are being upheld across the service.

More on Crime

“The challenge of rebuilding public confidence is a shared one for government and policing.

“This is an opportunity for a fundamental reset in that relationship, and together we will embark on this roadmap for reform to regain the trust and support of the people we all serve and to reinvigorate the best of policing.”

Read more:
Charges considered in election date betting scandal

‘Miscalculation’ over government’s handling of assisted dying issue

As well as the new government performance unit, ministers also hope to improve the relationship between the public and the police by standardising and measuring police response times – something that is not currently monitored.

In the aftermath of the summer riots, sparked by the Southport stabbings on 29 July, Ms Cooper said respect for the police needed to be restored after the “brazen abuse and contempt” shown by the perpetrators.

She said too often people feel “crime has no consequences” and that “has to change” as she promised to restore confidence in policing and the criminal justice system.

Dr Rick Muir, director of policing thinktank the Police Foundation, said: “A serious reform programme like this in policing is long overdue.

“Too often in the past, officers at the frontline have been let down by outdated technology, inadequate training and inefficient support services.

“Until these issues are addressed, the public won’t get the quality of policing they deserve.”

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Sports

MLB Awards Week results and analysis: Skenes, Gil each win Rookie of the Year

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MLB Awards Week results and analysis: Skenes, Gil each win Rookie of the Year

Welcome to MLB Awards Week.

November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.

Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future. The winners are being announced live each night on MLB Network, starting at 6 p.m. ET.

On Monday, a pair of starting pitchers — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees — got the week rolling, winning the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award in the National League and American League, respectively.

Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:

Tuesday: Managers of the Year

Wednesday: Cy Young Awards

Thursday: MVP Awards

Below, we list the three finalists in each of the big four categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis as the awards are handed out.

Jump to:
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Final tally: Gil 106 (15 first-place votes); Colton Cowser, Orioles, 101 (13); Austin Wells, Yankees, 17; Mason Miller, Athletics, 16 (1); Cade Smith, Guardians, 12 (1); Wilyer Abreu; Red Sox, 11; Wyatt Langford, Rangers, 7

Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.

With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE (see note) exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.

Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.

The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).

The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)

2. Langford, Rangers (116)

3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)

Abreu, Red Sox (115)

Gil, Yankees (115, winner)

6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)

7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)

Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.

ROY must-read:

Bump in the road or ominous sign: Has Luis Gil hit a wall after his red-hot start?


National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Final tally: Skenes 136 (23 first-place votes); Jackson Merrill, Padres, 104 (7); Jackson Chourio, Brewers, 26; Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 4

Experts’ pick: Skenes (8 votes); Merrill (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?

It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.

Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?

In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.

You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Skenes, Pirates (131 AXE, winner)

2. Merrill, Padres (128, finalist)

3. Chourio, Brewers (123, finalist)

4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals (119)

5. Imanaga, Cubs (117)

ROY must-reads:

Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace

Ranking MLB’s best rookies: Is Paul Skenes or an outfielder named Jackson No. 1?

American League MVP

Finalists:

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Juan Soto, Yankees

Experts’ pick: Judge (9 votes; unanimous)

Doolittle’s take: While the outcome seems like (and almost certainly is) a no-brainer, don’t let that make you lose sight of the overall dynamic around this award. In a nutshell: This is one of the greatest MVP races ever, in terms of historically elite performances from players in the same league.

The dominant performances went beyond the finalists. Five AL players posted at least 7.9 bWAR, led by the three MVP finalists, as well as Boston’s Jarren Duran and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who both finished with higher bWAR totals than Soto. Only once before has the AL had five players produce at that level in the same season — way back in 1912.

While Soto was never far out of the picture, this was a high-octane two-player race for most of the season between the mashing dominance of Judge and the five-tool mastery of the dynamic Witt. Judge won the bWAR battle by a good margin (10.8 to 9.4) and seemed to pull away at the end of the season. Even if you don’t like to think of this in terms of bWAR, it’s hard to look past league-leading totals of 58 homers and 144 RBIs and a third-place .322 batting average, all on the league’s best team.

The real drama surrounding this award is tied to that of the NL: Will we have two unanimous MVP picks? If so, that would be just the second time it’s happened. The first? Last year, when Shohei Ohtani (then with the Angels) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) pulled it off.

MVP must-reads:

Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs — but how many more will he hit?

Better than Bonds in 2001 and Ruth in 1921? How Aaron Judge’s season stacks up to the best in MLB history

Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees

Baseball’s next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MLB’s top tier


National League MVP

Finalists:

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Experts’ pick: Ohtani (9 votes; unanimous)

Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.

Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.

As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.

MVP must-reads:

51 HRs AND stolen bases?! How Shohei Ohtani transformed MLB — again

Breaking down Ohtani’s path to 50/50 — and the historic game that got him there

How Francisco Lindor became the heart and soul of the Mets

American League Cy Young

Finalists:

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians

Experts’ pick: Skubal (9 votes; unanimous)

Doolittle’s take: Long touted for his upside, Skubal put it all together in 2024, becoming the AL’s most dominant and consistent starting pitcher during the regular season, leading the Tigers to a surprise postseason berth.

Skubal became the AL’s first full-season winner of the pitching triple crown since another Tiger, Justin Verlander, did it in 2011. (Cleveland’s Shane Bieber did it in the shortened 2020 season.) With league-leading totals of 18 wins, 228 strikeouts and a 2.39 ERA, Skubal is well positioned to win his first Cy Young.

Lugo becomes the Royals’ rotation representative in the finalist group, honoring one of MLB’s breakout units in 2024, though teammate Cole Ragans might have been just as worthy. Entering the season, Lugo had never qualified for an ERA title, but in his first campaign for Kansas City, he threw 206⅔ innings, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA.

Clase struggled in the postseason but the voting took place before that, and it recognized his unusually dominant season, good enough to justify his presence in this group despite his role as a short reliever. In 74 outings, featuring 47 saves, Clase allowed just five earned runs. He’s still a reliever and, thus, a long shot to win the award, but getting this far says a lot. The last reliever to win a Cy Young Award was the Dodgers’ Eric Gagne in 2003.

Cy Young must-read:

It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’


National League Cy Young

Finalists:

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Experts’ pick: Sale (8 votes); Wheeler (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: What an interesting group of finalists this is. Value-wise, it’s a close race.

Wheeler is the constant here, as he’s enjoying a seven-year run as one of the NL’s top starting pitchers. Wheeler is still looking for his first Cy Young and entered the balloting this time around with his best résumé to date. Yet Wheeler is coming up against two pitchers with arguably more compelling — and very different — narratives.

Skenes is baseball’s ascendant ace. Few pitchers have reached the majors with higher expectations in recent years. He met the hype head-on and, if anything, proved to be even better than we thought. With the innings volume of baseball’s best starters much less than it used to be, it is possible for an elite run preventer to save runs at a clip that puts him among the league leaders during a partial season. It wasn’t Skenes’ fault that he wasn’t called up until the second week of May. All he did after that was post a 1.96 ERA over 23 starts while displaying a remarkable degree of consistency. There wasn’t a true clunker in the bunch.

And yet Sale might have been more dominant if you consider defensive-independent ERA (or FIP), in which Sale’s 2.09 bested Skenes’ 2.45. Also, like Skubal, Sale (18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts) became the first pitching triple crown winner of his league since 2011. In Sale’s case, he became the first to do it since L.A.’s Clayton Kershaw.

All this from a pitcher who once finished sixth or better in AL Cy Young voting seven straight seasons. He has never won, though, and the last of those seasons was 2018. Sale’s days as a premier starter seemed long gone … and then he did this. That’s a good narrative.

Cy Young must-reads:

Did Chris Sale pitch himself into the HOF this year?

Inside Chris Sale’s third act: From considering walking away to becoming an MLB superteam’s missing piece

The best stuff in baseball? How Paul Skenes is using his pitches to dominate MLB

American League Manager of the Year

Finalists:

A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers

Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals

Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians

Experts’ pick: Quatraro (5 votes); Hinch (3 votes); Vogt (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: The AL Central had four solid teams in 2024, three more than most thought the division would have, and the three surprise clubs are represented here as finalists.

All of these managers have compelling cases. Hinch guided the Tigers to their second-half surge even after Detroit subtracted at the trade deadline and had to navigate around a depleted starting rotation. He has finished in the top five of balloting four times but has never won.

Vogt, a first-time manager filling the shoes of Cleveland legend Terry Francona, also had to lean on his bullpen because of rotation issues and did so with aplomb.

Yet it’s Quatraro who really stands out, leading a Royals team that lost 106 games in 2023 to the postseason. Kansas City had lineup holes and a constantly evolving bullpen picture, yet Quatraro and his staff found a way to leverage his team’s strengths (rotation, defense, Witt) into an October appearance.


National League Manager of the Year

Finalists:

Carlos Mendoza, New York Mets

Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers

Mike Shildt, San Diego Padres

Experts’ pick: Murphy (6 votes); Mendoza (3 votes)

Doolittle’s take: Mendoza had a fantastic first season in the Mets’ dugout, helping the team overcome a sluggish start and eventually end up facing the Dodgers in the NLCS. He did so with quiet, consistent leadership and that bodes well for his ability to last a long time in one of baseball’s most challenging environments.

Shildt, who won the award in 2019 while with the Cardinals, proved to be a feisty presence on a star-laden team with middling expectations that kept rising as the season progressed.

Murphy’s season is hard to beat. Handed the reins of a big league team for a full season for the first time at 65, Murphy was able to put his imprint on the young Brewers. This was no small feat given the departure last winter of his onetime protege, Craig Counsell, arguably the face of the franchise.

Milwaukee went young, suffered rotation shortages and had a number of moving parts in its lineup. Behind Murphy, the Brewers changed their style of play to better accentuate the athleticism on the roster, won 93 games and cruised to another NL Central title.

Earlier awards

Executive of the Year: Brewers president Matt Arnold named exec of the year

Doolittle’s take: I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.

And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.


All-MLB: 2024 All-MLB First and Second Team winners

Doolittle’s take: Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.


Gold Gloves: Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. among 14 first-time Gold Glove winners

Doolittle’s take: For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.

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