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The oldest president in American history has a problem with the nations youngest voters.
Support from voters under 30 has powered every Democratic presidential victory for the past half century; Joe Biden carried the demographic by 24 points in 2020, his biggest margin of any age group. But according to several recent surveys, the presidents support among young voters has plummeted. Polls covering six swing states released last week by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found Biden losing to Donald Trump (though within the margin of error) among voters under 30. The two men were effectively tied in this months national poll from Fox News.
These results have prompted a mix of panic and disbelief among many Democrats, who see little chance of a Biden victory if he cant win back one of the partys core constituencies. Yet analysts who study the youth vote say the presidents standing with this key group isnt nearly as bad as Democrats tend to think, and they attribute many of the struggles he is having to an underappreciated finding: Most first-time voters know surprisingly little about Trump. The most targeted data suggest that Biden maintains a double-digit lead over Trump among voters ages 18 to 29. Its smaller than it was four years ago, but experts say Biden has a good opportunity to run it up.
Surveys that specifically poll voters under 30as opposed to those in which young people are merely a subset of respondentsshow Biden leading Trump by double digits. In the Harvard Youth Poll, a biennial survey considered the gold standard for measuring young voters, Biden led Trump by 13 points among registered voters. That advantage was virtually identical to the margin found in surveys (one national and one across several battleground states) commissioned this spring by Voters of Tomorrow and NextGen America, a pair of Democrat-aligned groups who are targeting the youth vote, according to summaries they shared with me. Pollsters place more trust in these findings because they sample a larger number of young peopleand therefore have a smaller margin of errorthan the surveys that have shown less favorable results for Biden.
Read: The real youth-vote shift to watch
Still, those margins arent close to what they were in 2020. Biden is polling worst with 18-to-22-year-olds, most of whom were children when Trump was president. In polls and focus groups, this cohort demonstrated little awareness of the major controversies of Trumps term. They didnt fully know who Donald Trump was, Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez, NextGen Americas president, told me. Some of them were 10 years old when he was first elected. And if they had good parents, they were probably shielded from the images of crying babies being ripped from their mothers at the border, or from the sight of Heather Heyer being run over by white supremacists in Charlottesville.
In polling conducted by Blueprint, a Democratic data firm, fewer than half of registered voters under 30 said they had heard some of Trumps most incendiary quotes, such as when he said there were very fine people on both sides demonstrating in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, or when he told members of the Proud Boys, the far-right militia group, to stand back and stand by during a 2020 debate. Just 42 percent of respondents were aware that, during his 2016 campaign, Trump called for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.
The youngest voters know Trump more as a ribald commentator than as a political leader. Santiago Mayer, the 22year-old founder of the Gen Z group Voters of Tomorrow, which has endorsed Biden, told me that his 18-year-old brother and his friends see Trump as more funny than threatening. They dont know much about Donald Trumps agenda, and Donald Trump is an entertaining character, Mayer said. They are gravitating toward him not because of their political beliefs but out of sheer curiosity.
A related problem for Biden is that young voters dont know much about what hes done, either. The president has kept a lower profile than his two predecessors, and young people as a group arent as civically engaged as older Americans. As a result, pollsters have found that young voters are less aware of Bidens accomplishments, even on issues that they say are important to them. Many of them dont know, for example, that he signed the largest climate bill in history (the Inflation Reduction Act) or the most significant change to gun laws in decades (the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act), or that he has forgiven about $160 billion in student debt. The more they pay attention, the more they approve of and are likely to vote for Biden, John Della Volpe, the director of polling at Harvards Institute of Politics, told me. The biggest challenge for Biden, he said, is that an overwhelming number of young people do not appreciate the degree to which hes delivered on promises he made in 2020. I hear that in every single city.
Other factors are driving the disconnect between Biden and young voters as well. When Blueprint asked young voters what concerned them most about a potential second Biden term, their top worry was that hed be too old for the job. Next on the list, however, was inflation. People in early adulthood are also less economically stable than their older peers and more sensitive to costs. So although campus protests over Israels military campaign in Gaza have dominated headlines, polls show that inflation is a much bigger drag on Bidens support among young voters, and a more significant issue for them than for older people. Young voters just think that Biden doesn’t have his eye on the ball economically when it comes to inflation, Evan Roth Smith, Blueprints lead pollster, told me. It is surprising but not inexplicable that voters under 30 associate lower price points with Donald Trump. But they do, because its just a hard fact that prices were lower and the rate of inflation was lower when Donald Trump was president.
Read: Bidens weakness with young voters isnt about Gaza
I think people would forgive age if they felt that Biden could bring prices down, Smith added.
Still, Biden has advantages over Trump that could help him win back young voters by November. Voters under 30 have retreated from both parties and are more likely to register as independents than in the past. But they remain more progressive than the electorate as a whole, and in recent polls they align much closer with Biden on the issues than with Trump. In 2022, Tzintzn Ramirez said, young voters expressed antipathy toward the Democratic Party in polling but ended up backing Democratic candidates in the midterms. She and other analysts see a similar dynamic at play now, where young voters are telling pollsters theyre undecided or registering support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates as a protest against both Biden and Trump. Surveys show this to be especially true for young men and voters of color, many of whom have soured on Biden. But support for third-party alternatives typically drops as the election nears. Young voters also tend to make their choice later in the campaign.
Perhaps the best data point for Biden is that hes hardly worse off among young voters than President Barack Obama was at this point in his 2012 reelection bid. Like Biden, Obama won big among voters under 30 during his first presidential victory but struggled to communicate his record to them. Della Volpe told me that in Harvards polling, Obama had the same 13-point advantage over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the spring of 2012 that Biden has over Trump now. He would nearly double that margin by the fall, thanks in large part to an aggressive ad campaign that portrayed the former Massachusetts governor and businessman as an out-of-touch and greedy financier.
Donald Trump would seem to need no introduction to votersexcept, that is, to those who were too young or tuned out to fully remember his presidency. Givig them a well-funded history lesson could be Bidens best hope for a second term.
EDMONTON, Alberta — The Oilers have named goalie Calvin Pickard as their starter for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final, replacing Stuart Skinner.
Pickard, 33, replaced Skinner after he was pulled in the third period of their Game 3 blowout loss at the Florida Panthers and again when Skinner was pulled after the first period of Game 4, having given up three goals on 17 shots. Pickard made 18 straight saves before Florida’s Sam Reinhart sent the game to overtime with a goal at 19:40 in the third period. He ended up stopping 22 of 23 shots as the Oilers won in overtime to even the series at 2-2.
“I guess you could look at today as the biggest game in my life, but the last game was the biggest game in my life until the next one. It’s rinse and repeat for me,” said Pickard, who has played for six NHL teams during his 10-year career. “It’s been a great journey. I’ve been a lot of good places. Grateful that I had the chance to come to Edmonton a couple years ago, and this is what you play for.”
Pickard has made his case to be the Oilers’ starter this postseason. He took over the Edmonton crease for an ineffective Skinner in the first round against the Los Angeles Kings and went 6-0 until an injury in the second round against the Vegas Golden Knights gave Skinner the starting job again.
With Pickard’s win in Game 5, he is just the fourth goalie in Stanley Cup playoff history to win at least seven straight postseason decisions after not starting his team’s opening playoff game. Overall, Pickard has made nine appearances in these playoffs with a .896 save percentage and a 2.69 goals-against average.
But it wasn’t an easy call to bench Skinner for the Oilers.
“I don’t think Stu was at fault at all for any of the goals the other night,” said Oilers captain Connor McDavid. “I think it was just a victim of circumstance, and Picks came in and gave us a chance.”
Coach Kris Knoblauch said it wasn’t automatic that Pickard would start, especially considering Skinner’s history of playing his best hockey as a series went deeper.
“We’ve got two good goaltenders. Stu has come in and played some really big games, especially later in the series,” said Knoblauch. “But I think the deciding factor for us was we won the previous game and Picks made a lot of big saves.”
Skinner and Pickard are only the second goalie tandem in NHL history to both have at least seven victories in a single playoff run, joining Marc-Andre Fleury (9 wins) and Matt Murray (7) from the champion 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins.
This goalie swap for the Oilers is extremely rare in Stanley Cup Final history. According to ESPN Research, the last instance of multiple goalies on a Cup-winning team recording decisions in the Final — without a reported injury reason — was when the Boston Bruins alternated between Gerry Cheevers and Eddie Johnston in 1972. Cheevers started Game 1 and the clincher in that series.
Pickard has a lot of fans in the Edmonton locker room for the way he carries himself on and off the ice.
“I guess you’d say he’s one of the rare goalies that’s just a normal guy,” said forward Evander Kane. “Really popular guy in the room. He’s been doing this for a long time. He has a ton of experience and been in a lot of different dressing rooms. That can help you along when you do come on to different teams, making a little bit of an easier transition. Now you’re just seeing that off-ice translate on to the ice with his performance.”
The Oilers will try to take a series lead against one of the best road playoff teams in NHL history in the Panthers.
Florida is 9-3 on the road in the playoffs. One more win away from home would tie the single-season record for road victories, shared by six teams and most recently tied by the champion 2019 St. Louis Blues. No team in Stanley Cup playoffs history has scored more on the road (56 goals) than these Panthers have.
“I’ve noticed that the style of game that we play travels. I don’t think we don’t change anything based on whether we’re home or away. First change, last change, anything like that. Our game is very direct,” Panthers defenseman Seth Jones said. “It’s simple and it’s physical hockey and it’s fast. So we don’t need to change anything on the road, just get to our game a little quicker.”
Game 5 is set for 8 p.m. ET Saturday. When a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has won 73% of the series.
A manhunt is under way after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in their home in a “politically motivated assassination” – and another politician and his wife were also shot.
Minnesota state representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed at their home, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, confirmed.
State senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot in their home but are expected to survive. The senator, according to officials, is in a stable condition after emergency surgery.
Image: Representative Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Minnesota Legislature
Authorities have confirmed that the suspect they are looking for is 57-year-old Vance Boelter – who, in a press conference, was described as a 6ft 1in white male, with brown hair and brown eyes.
Members of the public have been urged not to approach him as he may be armed.
The suspect was reportedly posing as a police officer, and officials said the alleged attacker escaped after an exchange of gunfire.
Both politicians are members of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.
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1:08
US politician killed: Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’
US President Donald Trump, in a statement, said: “I have been briefed on the terrible shooting that took place in Minnesota, which appears to be a targeted attack against State Lawmakers.
“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI, are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law.
“Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America.”
Image: John Hoffman and his wife were shot multiple times at their home. Pic: AP
Authorities have urged residents of the Champlin and Brooklyn Park areas to stay in their homes.
In an earlier Facebook post, Mr Walz said: “I’ve been briefed this morning on an ongoing situation involving targeted shootings in Champlin and Brooklyn Park.
“The Minnesota Department of Public Safety and local law enforcement are on the scene. We will share more information soon.”
Image: Former US president Joe Biden with Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram/ melissahortman
At a subsequent news conference, Mr Walz said: “We must all, in Minnesota and across the country, stand against all forms of political violence.
“Those responsible for this will be held accountable.”
He has also urged those in Minnesota not to attend political rallies until the suspect is caught.
Police evacuated the Texas State Capitol and grounds in Austin ahead of an anti-Trump protest on Saturday – citing a credible threat to politicians.
Image: Former US vice president Kamala Harris and Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram/ melissahortman
Post-mortem examinations will be conducted to determine the extent of their injuries.
However, it is clear that both Ms Hortman and her spouse died from gunshot wounds, Drew Evans, superintendent of the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said.
Ms Hortman, a mother of two, was first elected in 2004 – and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature. She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Mr Hoffman, also a Democrat, was first elected in 2012 – and ran a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.
Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic leader, has described the shootings as “deeply disturbing” on X, adding that “violence is never acceptable”, and that he is “praying hard” for the victims.
Former Arizona representative, Gabby Giffords, described her friend Ms Hortman as a “true public servant”, who “dedicated her life building a better, safer Minnesota”.
Nancy Pelosi, former speaker of the US House of Representatives, said she was “heartbroken” by the news.
She added: “Unfortunately, we know the tragedy of when political violence hits home very well.
“All of us must remember that it’s not only the act of violence, but also the reaction to it, that can normalise it. This climate of politically-motivated violence must end.”
In a tribute, Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin said: “Melissa, Mark, John, and Yvette – these are not just names, and this is not just politics.
“These are people. They’re longtime friends to me and Jenn and so many others in Minnesota. They have children, loved ones, neighbors, and friends.”
Mr Martin added: “Today, we recommit ourselves to fight harder for the values that Melissa and Mark embodied – building a kinder, more just, and loving world. If this murderer thinks we will be silenced, he’s wrong.”
US President Donald Trump has revealed details of a one-hour phone call with his Russian counterpart, in which they agreed the conflict between Israel and Iran should end.
Posting on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump added that he told Vladimir Putin that “his war [in Ukraine] should also end”.
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2:33
Iran’s retaliation analysed
The Iranian response has resulted in at least three people killed and dozens of injuries in Israel, according to medics. Iranian state TV, meanwhile, has reported that 20 children are among the 60 killed in a strike on a Tehran neighbourhood on Saturday.
Iranian missiles were seen entering Israeli airspace on Saturday evening.
Meanwhile, RAF jets and military assets are being sent to the Middle East after Tehran warned the UK and other allies their regional bases would be targeted if they helped defend Israel in the growing conflict between the two heavily armed countries.
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2:43
Tel Aviv: Buildings and cars destroyed
In his post, Mr Trump said: “President Putin called this morning to very nicely wish me a Happy Birthday, but to more importantly, talk about Iran, a country he knows very well. We talked at length.
“Much less time was spent talking about Russia/Ukraine, but that will be for next week. He is doing the planned prisoner swaps – large numbers of prisoners are being exchanged, immediately, from both sides.
“The call lasted approximately 1 hour. He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end.”
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7:10
State TV: Children among dozens killed in Iran
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said President Putin condemned Israel’s military operation in Iran and expressed concerns about the risk of escalation.
During the conversation, the Russian leader briefed President Trump on his recent talks with the leaders of Israel and Iran – reiterating Russia’s hopes to seek mutually acceptable solutions on Iran’s growing nuclear issue.
Meanwhile, the latest round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday in Muscat will not take place, a senior US administration official has told Sky’s US partner network NBC News.
However, the official said the US is “not shutting the door to future discussions”.
“While there will be no meeting on Sunday, we remain committed to talks and hope the Iranians will come to the table soon,” the official said.