Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost
Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost, according to an analysis shared with Sky News.
The figures, produced by the management consulting firm Bain & Company, underline a major challenge faced by the Ukrainian armed forces as they rely on supplies of ammunition from the United States and Europe to battle Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The war has been described from the start as a “battle of fires” because of the volume of artillery rounds used.
It prompted the US, the UK and other European allies to seek to ramp up production in their respective factories, but their ability to manufacture artillery rounds still lags behind Russia’s despite a combined economic strength that far outmatches Moscow’s.
As a result, Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline say for every one round they fire against Russian positions, the invading troops can launch around five shells back.
Battling against the odds, the Ukrainians say they have become skilled at trying to make every round count.
“Often, with just one, two or three shells, we can completely destroy a target,” said Senior Lieutenant Kostiantin, an artillery battery commander with the 57th Brigade, which is fighting against a new Russian invasion into the Kharkiv region, in the northeast of Ukraine.
But the commander said Ukrainian troops still need more supplies.
“We have to keep holding the Russians back… and make every metre of land they try to take cost them hundreds of lives.”
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The research on artillery rounds by Bain & Company, which drew on publicly available information, found that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish about 4.5 million artillery shells this year compared with a combined production of about 1.3 million rounds across European nations and the US.
On cost, it said the average production cost per 155 mm shell – the type produced by NATO countries – was about $4,000 (£3,160) per unit, though it varied significantly between countries. This is compared with a reported Russian production cost of around $1,000 (£790) per 152 mm shell that the Russian armed forces use.
Artillery is only one of many munition shortfalls faced by Ukraine.
Sky News visited a group of new recruits in the east of the country who were learning how to use an N-LAW anti-tank missile, first provided to the Ukrainian military by the UK.
They said a shortage of supplies means they just pretend to fire the weapon in training and would only use it for real when in battle – and only then there are any stocks.
“We have a lack of N-LAWs and we need more,” said a soldier with the callsign “Bolt”, who was giving the training to the new soldiers in a reconnaissance battalion of 5th Brigade.
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Asked whether he had a message for the factory workers in the UK who assembled the weapon, Bolt said: “We’d like to thank our Western partners for their help. But, if possible, we would be very grateful if they could provide more NATO munitions.”
The importance of producing weapons and ammunition is why many experts say factory production lines – rather than the frontline – could be where the war in Ukraine is won.
Sky News visited a factory in Belfast in April where the N-LAW missile is assembled by Thales, a global defence company. The weapon is designed by the Swedish firm Saab.
The assembly takes place inside a large hall containing a mixture of machines grinding metal and desks where delicate work takes place on tiny but vital components.
Working hours on the production line at the time were only four days a week from 7am until 4pm, though they were believed to be increasing.
Thales manufactures its own weapons here as well, including Starstreak, a short-range, surface-to-air missile that can take out aircraft, and the Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM). Both of these systems are also used in Ukraine.
Philip McBride, the managing director of Thales Belfast, said N-LAW production capacity had doubled since the start of the year and there was scope to double it again.
Asked why the expansion only began then, when Russia’s full-scale war erupted in February 2022, he explained it was because of a number of factors.
Firstly, the UK Ministry of Defence supplies Ukraine with N-LAWs, rather than Thales directly. The missiles initially given to the Ukrainian military were those that the British armed forces already had in their own stockpiles.
“They’ve granted that and then they go through their own procurement process, agree what their actual requirement is in the UK… and once they’ve decided that, then they’ll place orders allowing us to ramp up,” Mr McBride said.
Another factor is that it can take up to two years to source the parts that are required for the N-LAW.
However, asked if production at the factory would have been expanded sooner had the Ministry of Defence put in orders earlier, the managing director said: “The earlier an order comes, the sooner we can ramp up production.”
A lot of work is going on at the plant to modernise the equipment and enable a further expansion of production lines.
The number of employees has also grown, with around 900 people now working at the site and at a second facility in Belfast, compared with just 500 a few years ago.
World
Kristi Noem: Top Trump official’s handbag – containing $3,000 in cash and security pass – stolen in burger restaurant
A bag belonging to the US Homeland Security Secretary was stolen on Sunday night – containing thousands of dollars in cash and an ID card that gives access to secure agency buildings.
Kristi Noem was eating at a Washington DC burger restaurant with family when a man in a face covering sat near her table and stole her purse, according to two people familiar with the theft.
Officials confirmed the theft to Sky News’ US partner NBC News on Monday.
The cabinet secretary was carrying $3,000 (£2,243) in cash because “her entire family was in town including her children and grandchildren”, Department of Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told NBC.
“She was using the withdrawal to treat her family to dinner, activities and Easter gifts.”
The purse contained her ID card. Reuters file pic
Just before 8pm, a man wearing an N-95 mask walked into the restaurant and up a few stairs to where Ms Noem was eating dinner.
He sat near her table and moved his chair close to hers before sliding her purse toward him with his foot, according to surveillance footage viewed by law enforcement, the sources said.
Within minutes, the man had Ms Noem’s purse under his jacket and walked out of the restaurant.
At least two on-duty members of the US Secret Service were in the restaurant – between Ms Noem and the front doors – according to a source who witnessed the meal.
They said the restaurant wasn’t very busy at the time.
The purse also contained credit cards, blank cheques, her passport, driver’s licence and a set of keys.
It’s unclear whether Ms Noem was specifically targeted – and investigators are looking into whether the man knew who the purse belonged to.
When asked about the incident, Ms Noem said: “I don’t think I can comment on it yet. It’s not resolved yet.”
She said the Secret Service was aware but said she hadn’t spoken to agency personnel about what happened.
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Ms Noem is a vocal supporter of Donald Trump’s policies of deporting undocumented immigrants and fortifying the US-Mexico border to slow illegal migration.
World
Starmer and Zelenskyy discuss ending Russia’s ‘brutal war’ – as Putin says says he is open to bilateral talks on longer ceasefire
Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about ending Russia’s “brutal war” on Ukraine in their latest phone call on Easter Monday, as Vladimir Putin said he was open to bilateral talks.
The prime minister and Ukrainian president spoke on Monday afternoon, when Sir Keir “reiterated his iron-clad support for Ukraine“.
A Downing Street spokesperson added that the prime minister “said that the UK supports Ukraine’s calls for Russia to commit to a full ceasefire and that now is the time for Putin to show he is serious about ending his brutal war”.
“They discussed the latest developments on the Coalition of the Willing, and looked forward to further progress towards a just and lasting peace,” the spokesperson added.
Mr Zelenskyy later said on social media that he had a “good and detailed conversation” with the prime minister, and added Ukrainian officials will be in London for talks on ending the war with Russia on Wednesday.
“We are ready to move forward as constructively as possible, just as we have done before, to achieve an unconditional ceasefire, followed by the establishment of a real and lasting peace,” he added.
The Ukrainian president added that the 30-hour Easter truce, which both Kyiv and Moscow accuse the other of violating, showed that Russia “are prolonging the war”.
It comes as Mr Putin proposed bilateral talks with Ukraine on a longer ceasefire, which would mark the first time Russia held such talks since a failed peace deal soon after the invasion in 2022.
Speaking to a state TV reporter, the Russian president said: “We always have a positive attitude towards a truce, which is why we came up with such an initiative (the Easter truce), especially since we are talking about the bright Easter days.”
When asked about Mr Zelenskyy’s calls to extend the 30-hour ceasefire into a 30-day pause on civilian targets, he added: “This is all a subject for careful study, perhaps even bilaterally. We do not rule this out.”
The Ukrainian president said on Sunday evening that the Russian army had “violated Putin’s ceasefire more than 2,000 times” during the day, and accused Russia of “failing” to “uphold its own promise of a ceasefire”.
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From Saturday: Why Putin offered an Easter truce?
It also comes after Donald Trump has said he hopes Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” after he and his secretary of state Marco Rubio warned that the US will walk away from efforts to broker a peace deal unless there are clear signs of progress soon.
The US president said on his Truth Social platform that both countries would “start to do big business” with the US after ending the war.
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Last month, Ukraine accepted Mr Trump’s proposal for a 30-day truce, but Mr Putin refused to back a full 30-day ceasefire, saying crucial issues of verification had not been sorted out.
He then said he would agree not to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, both sides have accused each other of breaking the moratorium on attacks on energy targets and at sea.
The Royal Navy’s flagship HMS Prince of Wales is to begin an eight-month deployment to send a “powerful message” of the UK’s naval and air power.
Operation Highmast will take in joint exercises and visits with 40 countries across the Mediterranean, Middle East, southeast Asia, Japan and Australia.
The £3bn aircraft carrier is scheduled to sail from Portsmouth on Tuesday, accompanied from the navy base by Type 45 destroyer HMS Dauntless, to join a formation of warships, supply ships and aircraft off the coast of Cornwall.
HMS Prince of Wales, as the biggest class of ship in the Royal Navy, is leading Carrier Strike Group 25 (CSG25) with the involvement of around 2,500 personnel from the Royal Navy, 592 from the Royal Air Force and 900 from the Army.
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King Charles visited the aircraft carrier in March
Later during the deployment, as many as 4,500 military personnel will be involved in exercises in the Indo-Pacific region. Forces from Norway, Canada and Spain are among 12 other nations taking part in operations.
The CSG’s first task will be to join a NATO exercise off France testing aerial defences before the ships move on to the Mediterranean to work with an Italian-led carrier force and then head east via the Red Sea.
HMS Prince of Wales pictured at Portsmouth Naval Base in February. Pic: PA
Other military assets include a contingent of up to 24 Royal Air Force F-35B Lightning fighter jets, Merlin Mk2 anti-submarine helicopters, Merlin Mk4 Commando and Wildcat helicopters along with T-150 Malloy and Puma drones.
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Royal Navy exercises on HMS Dauntless
Commodore James Blackmore, CSG commander, said the deployment would send a “powerful message” of the UK’s naval and air power.
He said: “It’s about supporting key trade routes that exist from the Indo-Pacific region to the UK, and supporting partners and allies in the region, showing that we are there as a capable and credible force should it be required.
“Operation Highmast will demonstrate credible deterrence and our support to NATO and the rules-based international order.”
Defence Secretary, John Healey MP, called it an “immensely complex operation” which sends “a powerful message of deterrence to any adversary”.
“This is a unique opportunity for the UK to operate in close coordination with our partners and allies in a deployment that not only shows our commitment to security and stability, but also provides an opportunity to bolster our own economy and boost British trade and exports,” he added.
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