Sunak’s Number 10 is much better at keeping secrets than others
Suddenly, at election time, political predictions become so much harder and riskier. Everything changes in a campaign, not least the news cycle.
That’s my excuse, at any rate, for failing to foresee the announcement of a general election in last week’s Politics at Jack and Sam’s.
There were a few clues – and one magisterial tweet from Financial Times journalist Lucy Fisher – but we were deaf to the signals.
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In this week’s Politics At Jack and Sam’s podcast, we reflect how this Number 10 – in big contrast to the last two – is much better at keeping secrets.
But the moment an election is called, the way information gets out alters and everything becomes trickier.
Follow live – general election latest:
Tories attack Starmer’s ‘stamina’ as PM shuns team to campaign
Normally political news emerges in so many different ways. There’s parliament. Government announcements. Questions, written and oral. MPs themselves, including ministers, wandering the corridors of the Commons where journalists can go stopping for a gossip.
All of that disappears at election time. Keeping things secret from the other side matters a lot more, while decisions and information is held by a much tighter group of people.
That’s why it’s not really feasible to do a weekly look ahead political podcast – and we’re responding by going daily. More details to follow.
Rishi Sunak‘s allies are quite upfront that the timing of the general election was a finely balanced argument and you can make a case both ways.
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Sunak defends wet election announcement
One of the big things that motivated Sunak to go now was that he was doing – in his view – big things; welfare announcements, defence spending commitments, NHS workforce plan.
But they found people weren’t listening and the polls weren’t moving. They weren’t “getting a hearing”. Which they put down to people being switched off from politics and apathy being high – and so the decision to call an election was motivated by that.
The other big consideration was that from around March, early April they were getting internal economic indicators, suggesting the economic conditions – things like inflation, interest rates – might be favourable sufficiently such that they could base a campaign around.
Fascinatingly, they say there wasn’t a “decision” meeting two months ago or even three weeks ago – the move was more like the tide coming in slowly.
Although Labour were caught on the hop – some staff had booked leave, were privately confident there was nothing coming this summer and the Labour campaign bus is not yet ready – candidates claim to be pretty happy with what’s happened so far.
However, the biggest challenge of the next five weeks will be seeing whether they can respond to the pressure of a campaign, and the relentless desire for more of everything.
Currently the narrative is that Sunak had a miserable start – in a few weeks, pictures of the PM in the rain could be a plucky fighter battling against the odds.
This feels unlikely right now, but having been through the 2017 campaign, we know anything can happen.
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After days of furore directed at Rishi Sunak for the election betting scandal, now a Labour candidate is under investigation by the Gambling Commission for his own betting activity – and is immediately suspended.
Is this an equaliser in one of the grubbiest electoral sagas of recent elections? Quite possibly not.
There is no doubting the utter dismay in Labour HQ at the revelation that they too have a candidate caught up in the betting scandal.
Politics live: Labour to return £100k donation to suspended candidate
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Tories launch own probe into betting scandal
It lends itself to the easy narrative that there’s a plague on all politicians’ houses – everyone as bad as each other.
However, if the facts are as presented, the scale of the challenge for the Tories is of a different order of magnitude to that now facing Labour.
Labour’s Kevin Craig was suspended immediately after the party was informed by the Gambling Commission of the probe.
We are told that he placed a bet – not on the election date, but that he would lose his race in a general election.
He is certainly guilty of gross stupidity, as he admitted in a statement on Tuesday evening.
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However, if this scenario is as presented, it is hard to see an allegation being mounted that he had insider intelligence on the race – unless it can be proved he was deliberately setting out to lose.
An under-pressure Gambling Commission will investigate every candidate’s name on the spreadsheet from gambling companies of those who placed bets – but it is unclear from available facts where this will go.
The Tory betting saga, however, is more complicated and now on its 13th day.
It was almost two weeks ago that Craig Williams – Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide and former Montgomeryshire MP – admitted he had placed a bet on the election date – a date he might have known before the public at large.
He denies he committed any offence, and remains under investigation.
Read more:
How to follow election night with Sky News
A simple guide to the main parties’ policies
Laura Saunders, standing for the Tories just south in Bristol North West, has also been suspended for putting a bet on the date when her partner worked in Conservative headquarters on the election.
For most of that time, Mr Sunak has been insisting he could not suspend either candidate because of the ongoing probe by the Gambling Commission.
Ministers, as well as opponents, weighed in.
And on Tuesday he reversed that decision under that pressure.
This means there are questions about the prime minister’s own judgement and unwillingness to act on top of questions about the behaviour of those closest to him.
Craig Williams and Laura Saunders have both been suspended from the Tories. Pics: PA/Laura Saunders for Bristol North West
This story has had massive cut through with the public, topping the charts for any news story in the UK – according to YouGov’s AI news tracker – for the last four days.
There is dismay from the cabinet downwards.
Labour’s own problems have undermined their own ability to go on the attack. But it is not clear that voters will see the two issues on the same scale.
The full list of the candidates running for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich is:
Charlie Caiger, independent;
Tony Gould, Reform UK;
Mike Hallatt, independent;
Brett Alistair Mickelburgh, Lib Dems;
Dan Pratt, Greens;
Patrick Spencer, Conservatives.
The full list of candidates for Bristol North West is:
Caroline Gooch, Lib Dems;
Darren Jones, Labour;
Scarlett O’Connor, Reform UK;
Mary Page, Green Party;
Ben Smith, SDP.
The full list of candidates for Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is:
Jeremy Brignell-Thorp, Green Party;
Oliver Lewis, Reform UK;
Glyn Preston, Lib Dems;
Elwyn Vaughan, Plaid Cymru;
Steve Witherden, Labour.
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