In this week’s Politics At Jack and Sam’s podcast, we reflect how this Number 10 – in big contrast to the last two – is much better at keeping secrets.
But the moment an election is called, the way information gets out alters and everything becomes trickier.
Normally political news emerges in so many different ways. There’s parliament. Government announcements. Questions, written and oral. MPs themselves, including ministers, wandering the corridors of the Commons where journalists can go stopping for a gossip.
All of that disappears at election time. Keeping things secret from the other side matters a lot more, while decisions and information is held by a much tighter group of people.
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That’s why it’s not really feasible to do a weekly look ahead political podcast – and we’re responding by going daily. More details to follow.
Rishi Sunak‘s allies are quite upfront that the timing of the general election was a finely balanced argument and you can make a case both ways.
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Sunak defends wet election announcement
One of the big things that motivated Sunak to go now was that he was doing – in his view – big things; welfare announcements, defence spending commitments, NHS workforce plan.
But they found people weren’t listening and the polls weren’t moving. They weren’t “getting a hearing”. Which they put down to people being switched off from politics and apathy being high – and so the decision to call an election was motivated by that.
The other big consideration was that from around March, early April they were getting internal economic indicators, suggesting the economic conditions – things like inflation, interest rates – might be favourable sufficiently such that they could base a campaign around.
Fascinatingly, they say there wasn’t a “decision” meeting two months ago or even three weeks ago – the move was more like the tide coming in slowly.
Although Labour were caught on the hop – some staff had booked leave, were privately confident there was nothing coming this summer and the Labour campaign bus is not yet ready – candidates claim to be pretty happy with what’s happened so far.
However, the biggest challenge of the next five weeks will be seeing whether they can respond to the pressure of a campaign, and the relentless desire for more of everything.
Currently the narrative is that Sunak had a miserable start – in a few weeks, pictures of the PM in the rain could be a plucky fighter battling against the odds.
This feels unlikely right now, but having been through the 2017 campaign, we know anything can happen.
The US Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee will hear testimony from former CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam and lawyers at Coinbase and Multicoin Capital.
Kemi Badenoch has offered Conservative support, in order to help the government pass its controversial welfare changes.
The Tory leader told Sky News she would be asking for three commitments from Sir Keir Starmer, if he wants to use Conservative votes to pass the reforms to disability benefits, which have triggered an unprecedented rebellion of more than 100 Labour MPs.
Ms Badenoch said: “I’m just making it very clear to Keir Starmer that if he will make commitments at the despatch box to meet our conditions which are to reduce the welfare budget, to get people into work and not to have tax rises, then we can support his bill.
“The bill is a bit of a mess. It needs some work. It looks like it’s been rushed for Rachel [Reeves] to fix other problems that they’ve got. But our welfare budget is far too high, and we really need to bring it down.”
The prospect of the bill passing on Conservative votes would outrage Labour MPs.
An amendment they have tabled says they cannot support the bill because it would drive disabled people into poverty, and they are concerned about whether people losing benefits would find work.
More on Kemi Badenoch
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Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed the amendment, while Sadiq Khan has become the most senior Labour figure to call for a “rethink”. The mayor of London has warned that the proposed cuts would “destroy [the] financial safety net” for “too many disabled Londonders”.
Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall has tried to reassure Labour MPs about the changes. But the rebels are hoping the government will water down their proposals in order to get Labour support.
The prime minister, speaking at a NATO summit in The Hague on Tuesday, insisted the government would press ahead.
Keir Starmer told Sky News: “We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”
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3:06
Sir Keir Starmer says he wants to see the ceasefire between Israel and Iran maintained.
A vote is looming next Tuesday with Labour MPs deeply concerned about the changes which will see 370,000 current PIP claimants lose benefit, and affect 3 million people in total.
The rebels hope the government will climb down.
One of them, Neil Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, told Sky News that relying on Conservative votes “is not a good look for any government”.
He added: “If you can’t rely on your own party, I think you’re in a serious place.”
Responding to Ms Badenoch’s offer, a Labour spokesperson said the government was “elected to deliver change” and that it’s “prepared to take on the challenges holding the UK back”.
They added: “We’re fixing the abysmal mess the Tories left behind, and MPs can either vote to keep a broken failed welfare system that writes people off, or they can vote to start fixing it.
“Next week’s bill is a test for the leader of the opposition as to whether her party has learned anything at all by being roundly rejected by Britain.”
While many Labour MPs initially indicated they backed the bill in principle, support has ebbed away over recent months amid warnings about the impact the cuts could have on the most vulnerable people in society.
Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed a reasoned amendment to oppose the government’s proposals – which, if passed, would effectively kill the legislation.
But speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby from the NATO summit at the Hague, the prime minister said the welfare system needed reform and was “not working for anyone”.
He said the vote planned for Tuesday was not a confidence vote in his leadership but on the need to reform the system.
“I think most colleagues do accept the case for reform,” he said.
“We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”
Image: Sir Keir Starmer made the comments on his way to a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Pic: AP
Welfare system ‘unsustainable’
Sir Keir spoke to reporters on the way to the summit about the reforms, saying there were around 1,000 people a day signing up for personal independence payment (PIP) – equivalent to the size of the population of Leicester.
“That is not a system that can be left unreformed, not least because it’s unsustainable, and therefore you won’t have a welfare system for those that need it in the future,” he added.
“So those that care about a future welfare system have to answer the question – how do you reform what you’ve got to make sure it’s sustainable for the future?'”
Introduced in March, the government’s welfare bill outlines proposals to make it harder for some disabled people to qualify for PIP while also cutting universal credit, another benefit.
What are the main changes in the welfare bill?
The most controversial elements of the government’s welfare bill are changes to PIP and Universal Credit.
PIP is money for people who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.
People who claim it – some of whom are in work – are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.
Under the plans, from November 2026, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP – instead of fewer points across a broader range of tasks the person needs help with.
Currently, the standard rate is given if people score between eight and 11 points overall, while the enhanced rate applies from 12 points.
The changes do not affect the mobility component of PIP.
And from April next year, the health element of Universal Credit will be frozen in cash terms for existing claimants at £97 per week until 2029/2030.
For new claimants, the health element of Universal Credit will be reduced to £50 per week.
However, ministers point to the fact that the Universal Credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30.
Overall, 3.2 million families are expected to lose an average of £1,720 by the end of 2030 due to the changes.
However, the government has stressed that these figures do not take into account the £1bn that is being put towards helping the long-term sick and disabled back into work.
It is these changes that have caused the most anxiety among MPs.
As one Labour MP told Sky News: “If the thrust of the policy is getting people into work, how does cutting support for people in work, work?
“The thrust of the proposals is right but cutting PIP and Universal Credit isn’t about getting people back into work, it’s about saving money.”
The reasoned amendment calls on the government to delay the proposals pending an assessment of the impact of the PIP cuts.
It also cites concern about the government’s own figures which show 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the changes and the lack of a formal consultation with disabled people.
One Labour rebel told Sky News there was a “broad sense of unease across all levels of the parliamentary party”.
“Almost everyone thinks there needs to be reform and there are a lot of good things in the bill, but elements need more thought and explanation if they are going to proceed,” they said.
“Unless those issues are revised, or much better explained and justified, I don’t think there is enough support for the measures. People are really worried there is a rush to do this and that we might sleepwalk into this as we have done with other issues.”
On Tuesday, Downing Street suggested the vote would still go ahead despite the concerns of some MPs – including influential chairs of parliamentary select committees.
Asked whether the government was confident it could pass the legislation, a Number 10 spokesman told reporters: “We are focused on delivering last week’s bill and engaging, talking to colleagues, as to why this reform is so important.”
Pressed on whether the vote was happening next week, they added: “I would never get ahead of parliamentary business. It’s scheduled for next week. We are committed to reforming welfare.”